(08-19-2024, 01:09 PM)mvossman Wrote: This is more a question of depth than who gets penciled in as the backup PF. Maxi is probably the guy penciled in there, but my guess is that Naji plays more actual minutes in that role.
The question is what happens when say both Maxi and PJ are out? My guess is that the forward rotation will be 2 of Naji/Luka/Klay for any meaningful minutes (assuming Omax is not ready). That makes the lineup a little smaller, but really with Lively/Gafford at center its bigger than anything they WCF team could put out there. What backup PF are going to get that we would rather have on the court than one of those three guys?
I agree with your first point that its not really about backup PF minutes (or in my mind the backup PF position at all). This team has enough size that they can afford to miss a couple of players and still put a reasonably sized team on the court. I'm not sure why folks are still obsessed with making this team bigger. In the playoffs our easiest series was against the biggest team in the NBA (and that was without Maxi for most of it). The teams we struggled with (OKC, Boston) played much smaller. Besides, Naji is bigger than DJJ, Klay is bigger than THJ and Grimes and Din are as big or bigger than Green, Exum and Hardy. We already got bigger.
How can you count on Luka or Klay to get minutes at PF? If you do the math, we need 1,700 minutes of backup PF. That's a hole that can't be schemed. If you give Naji half his minutes last year for PF, you're still lacking 1,100 minutes. You can't count on Maxi.
(08-19-2024, 01:22 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: How can you count on Luka or Klay to get minutes at PF? If you do the math, we need 1,700 minutes of backup PF. That's a hole that can't be schemed. If you give Naji half his minutes last year for PF, you're still lacking 1,100 minutes. You can't count on Maxi.
Klay is never playing the 4 in that scenario as he is always playing with either Luka or Naji.
Why can't Luka play PF defensively? He is bigger than most of the folks we are talking about, including our current starting PF. The 5 man lineup with the 13th most minutes was Maxi/Luka/Green/Timmy/Kyrie. Who do you think was guarding the opposing PF in that lineup (which was +17 net rating in small sample). Is something like Lively/Luka/Klay/Grimes/Exum really that bad? You can totally get away with that.
(08-19-2024, 02:21 PM)mvossman Wrote: Klay is never playing the 4 in that scenario as he is always playing with either Luka or Naji.
Why can't Luka play PF defensively? He is bigger than most of the folks we are talking about, including our current starting PF. The 5 man lineup with the 13th most minutes was Maxi/Luka/Green/Timmy/Kyrie. Who do you think was guarding the opposing PF in that lineup (which was +17 net rating in small sample). Is something like Lively/Luka/Klay/Grimes/Exum really that bad? You can totally get away with that.
Good points. My prediction...
Starting: Luka, Kyrie, Klay, PJ, Lively
Sixth Man: Naji in for Klay
Seventh Man: Gafford in for Lively
Eighth Man: Grimes in for Luka or Kyrie
(08-19-2024, 01:09 PM)mvossman Wrote: 1 This is more a question of depth than who gets penciled in as the backup PF. Maxi is probably the guy penciled in there, but my guess is that Naji plays more actual minutes in that role.
2 The question is what happens when say both Maxi and PJ are out? My guess is that the forward rotation will be 2 of Naji/Luka/Klay for any meaningful minutes (assuming Omax is not ready). That makes the lineup a little smaller, but really with Lively/Gafford at center its bigger than anything they WCF team could put out there. What backup PF are going to get that we would rather have on the court than one of those three guys?
3 I agree with your first point that its not really about backup PF minutes (or in my mind the backup PF position at all). This team has enough size that they can afford to miss a couple of players and still put a reasonably sized team on the court. I'm not sure why folks are still obsessed with making this team bigger. In the playoffs our easiest series was against the biggest team in the NBA (and that was without Maxi for most of it). The teams we struggled with (OKC, Boston) played much smaller. Besides, Naji is bigger than DJJ, Klay is bigger than THJ and Grimes and Din are as big or bigger than Green, Exum and Hardy. We already got bigger.
1 They will have one or more players available to be backup PFs. I think Maxi will be in the mix, as will Naji.
....PS - I'm very "wait and see" on Naji being all that as a PF. He played the 3 in NO, not the 4.
FWIW my guess is that Maxi plays more mpg at PF than C, and Naji plays more mpg at SF than PF. I also figure Naji ends up with more minutes and mpg overall (more games played, and a few more mpg). But I think that will sort itself out based on who is playing better from game to game.
2 I'm not seeing Klay as a 4 as a planned role. But I really shy away from these what-if scenarios, because there are a million other factors that will be in play. For example, you say there's always plenty of size - yet Gafford and Lively will NOT both be available every game.
What they will do if multiple players are out, will be figure it out. EVERY position will be subject to weakness and odd fill-in's and stress on filling other positions when multiple players are missing.
3 " I'm not sure why folks are still obsessed with making this team bigger." -- I would say it as "retaining the size advantage we have and not squandering it with gimmick lineups."
Oh, and on paper, yes Naji is "taller" than DJJ and bulkier. But I am not persuaded he will ever play as tall. DJJ's super-jumping ability allowed him to be a problem for MUCH taller players, and I'm not persuaded Naji can have that impact. Especially with taller players. Or rebounding or blocking shots. Or above the rim lob threat. (I also keep in mind that by playing the 3, Naji at 6-7 usually had a natural height advantage that should have given him an edge -- but if you erase that edge by moving him to PF, his game might suffer.)
(08-19-2024, 05:09 PM)F Gump Wrote: 3 " I'm not sure why folks are still obsessed with making this team bigger." -- I would say it as "retaining the size advantage we have and not squandering it with gimmick lineups."
There was not a lot of evidence in the playoffs to support this argument. They had no size advantage against Minny and had no issues. The lineups they had real issues with were smaller "gimmick" lineups like Giddeyless OKC lineups and Horford plus wings/guards.
My general point is that talent and fit are much more important for who will be on the court than size. Getting a vet min backup PF is not going to make a big difference because when it matters I believe Kidd will play the better players and if the means going a little smaller then so be it.
I would like to think that Grimes will fill holes at SG/SF and really focus Naji as the backup 4 with success.
My REAL hope is that DJJ absolutely craters in LA and they want to move off his contract sufficiently to willingly take a Powell, Lawson, Hardy package (might have to be Exum for hard cap purposes) .
Not sure a DFS for Powell/Maxi is a positive step, but I would at least give it some consideration if Maxi really is cooked. To that end I really want Maxi to NOT play the 4 much at all.
With all that said, please don't make me wish we could get Grant Williams back.
08-20-2024, 01:54 AM (This post was last modified: 08-20-2024, 04:35 AM by F Gump.)
(08-19-2024, 11:36 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: 1 I would like to think that Grimes will fill holes at SG/SF and really focus Naji as the backup 4 with success.
2 My REAL hope is that DJJ absolutely craters in LA and they want to move off his contract
sufficiently to willingly take a Powell, Lawson, Hardy package (might have to be Exum for hard cap purposes) .
3 Not sure a DFS for Powell/Maxi is a positive step, but I would at least give it some consideration if Maxi really is cooked. To that end I really want Maxi to NOT play the 4 much at all.
4 With all that said, please don't make me wish we could get Grant Williams back.
I like these thoughts, even if I don't quite see these issues exactly the same way.
If Naji can play well at the 4, and if Grimes magically reverts to form after an incredibly bad showing last season, then yep it all looks good on filling the various backup needs. But I also fear those are really big if's.
I have the same wish as you, on an eventual trade for DJJ. I do think it's possible that LAC will wish they had Naji (better O, worse D) instead of DJJ, and the Mavs may wish they had the opposite, just due to their overall rosters. But such a trade this season would be unlikely UNLESS they decide to move someone with a meatier contract (like Naji) - when doing a 3-for-1 or the like, the hard cap gets in the way of a salary match since you'd end up having to refill the empty slots without room under the apron to do so.
And while I like the idea of getting DJJ back, I'm not eager to go there yet. With this Mavs roster as it exists, I don't think there are minutes for DJJ as well as Naji/Grimes (so it's probably a Naji-DJJ swap). Before we consider that, I want to see what we have in Naji. It's possible we may find ourselves better off with Naji (depending on what value Naji offers in the 2-way category, and as a backup 4). DJJ's (lack of) being a real threat on offense limited his playability and effectiveness, and he was way better when used as a 3 who can guard 1's and 2's also at an elite and disruptive level, but he was not nearly as effective when he was the 4.
Oh, and the idea of GW makes me gag, even as a last resort, emergency idea (or even as a throwaway line). Been there, done that. It was not a fun ride. The PTSD lingers.
*Klay to be used as Kyrie (or other offensive guard) + Klay... or Luka + Klay... but as little as possible as Kyrie (or other offensive guard) + Luka + Klay.
**PJW can be used as an offensive forward when both Luka and Klay are not on the floor.
The sooner Kidd settles into an established rotation based on the above, the better it will be to establish combinations and roles, and develop chemistry.
One of Hardy or Dinwiddie may need to be traded for an Offensive Forward. I would have liked Simone Fontecchio for that role... he signed with the Pistons for cheap. Or for the Mavs to buy an early 2nd round pick and take a flyer on developing Nikola Djurisic for that role... but he's now with the Hawks and also injured, so never mind. Even someone like the "slimmed down" Kenneth Lofton Jr could have been adequate for that role.
(08-20-2024, 01:54 AM)F Gump Wrote: If Naji can play well at the 4, and if Grimes magically reverts to form after an incredibly bad showing last season, then yep it all looks good on filling the various backup needs. But I also fear those are really big if's.
I can understand there being some concern with Naji defending the 4, but I think you are overstating how bad Grimes was last season. In NY, he shot over 36% on very high volume while playing quality POA defense. The volume is a big deal. Its probably a better indicator of the space he creates than his three point percentage. Our three and D players mostly shoot wide open shots. Grimes shot over 43% in NY last season on wide open shots (he shot 44% in his first two seasons). The Grimes that played in NY last season would be very valuable on this team. He is the perfect fit next to Luka.
Then he got traded to Detroit, a place he clearly didn't want to be. He played 6 terrible games there until they shut him down. I don't know if he was bad those 6 games because he didn't want to be there, or was dealing with a knee injury or just a bad stretch, but I'm not that worried about him "magically" reverting from 6 games in Detroit to the player he was for 2.5 seasons in NY.
I'm thinking their lineup-building model will work a bit different than that ^. But we're all guessing and will have to see how it goes.
I think they'll align it like this, in their base setup, a basic and simple scheme revolving around their offense:
Center(1) for defense - Gafford-Lively splitting about all 48
Guards (2) for offense - Luka-Kyrie-Klay splitting about all 96
Forwards (2) for defense - PJW, Kleber, Naji, Grimes, Exum
I see the POA defender as one of the "Forwards" even though defending a guard - because that expertise is not likely to be coming from Luka-Kyrie-Klay. I would guess Exum or Grimes might be the best ones for that, although I expect others to get chances at that job, and we might see a lot of zone as well.
As for how it would work with all 3 of Luka-Kyrie-Klay starting, even though they are splitting 2 positions, that's an issue to resolve. The defense with those 3 on the floor at the same time seems iffy, unless Klay is MUCH better on defense than I expect, because who is going to guard the elite offense-creating guards? That would mean one has to be subbed for fairly quick each game and they will have to take turns playing in pairs. Ideally Klay or Kyrie embraces a 6th Man role.
All that having been said, I expect to see lots and lots of differing combos, which will primarily include some sort of core lineup-building principles they adopt, but then at times there will be lineups fitting almost no logical pattern at all. And when injuries are in the mix? Who knows.
(08-20-2024, 10:12 AM)mvossman Wrote: I can understand there being some concern with Naji defending the 4, but I think you are overstating how bad Grimes was last season. In NY, he shot over 36% on very high volume while playing quality POA defense. The volume is a big deal. Its probably a better indicator of the space he creates than his three point percentage. Our three and D players mostly shoot wide open shots. Grimes shot over 43% in NY last season on wide open shots (he shot 44% in his first two seasons). The Grimes that played in NY last season would be very valuable on this team. He is the perfect fit next to Luka.
Then he got traded to Detroit, a place he clearly didn't want to be. He played 6 terrible games there until they shut him down. I don't know if he was bad those 6 games because he didn't want to be there, or was dealing with a knee injury or just a bad stretch, but I'm not that worried about him "magically" reverting from 6 games in Detroit to the player he was for 2.5 seasons in NY.
I'm just not buying that the stats are generally giving us that ^ rosy characterization on Grimes in NY.
I can again recite and explain all the things in the stats and his track record that I see that have made me leery of expecting he will be what we hope, but rather than going into all the specific negatives, this time I'll just leave it at "I'm very leery."
I hope I'm wrong. And we'll get an objective answer in the fall.
In the meantime, I'm not putting him any higher in my lineup expectations than I think he will start with (And from the way they phrase things, the Mavs simply "hope" they get something from him that might help.) Unless Grimes is just off the charts in camp, I think Exum will be higher in the pecking order to start the season.
(08-22-2024, 11:25 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Suns are S/W the 3 year deal for Little with this move. Crazy to eat that deal but I guess that's how desperate they've become.
I assume there are no buyers for Beal or they would have moved his contract. What a terrible trade that was. If their big three were a Venn diagram, there'd be 85% redundancy.
(08-22-2024, 12:54 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: I assume there are no buyers for Beal or they would have moved his contract. What a terrible trade that was. If their big three were a Venn diagram, there'd be 85% redundancy.
There’s a school of thought that says “Just acquire talent, and sort out fit later.”
So they acquired three gold shower heads, but no toilet seats.
I loathe Phoenix. But getting Jones, Morris, Plummlee and resigning Royce O’Neal and hiring coach Bud, they low key had a great summer all things considered. Also getting Ryan Dunn. Annoyed that they couldn’t just die off. It’s still imperfect and unbalanced roster, but they are much deeper than last season.
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