Trade & FA 2024-25:

[SleepingHero]

@wojespn
Markkanen signs 5-year, $238M deal with Jazz
Jazz All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen has signed a five-year, $238 million contract renegotiation and extension -- including $220 million in new money, his agent Michael Lelchitski of Sports International Group told ESPN on Wednesday.

[SleepingHero]

ECONOMICS. The salary match can almost work as a simple 1 for 1: UT has about 30M in open cap room, and the difference in salary is about 33M. So UT would have to add almost any salary alongside Kessler's to make work. 
....NO is about 3M over the tax line, and presumably determined to do something to reduce salary by 3-4M at least. This would certainly be designed to provide that solution, and easily do so.
....UT also has incentive to increase their payroll, as they are about 17M below the team minimum (they do have 3 open roster spots they can fill towards that end). The penalties for being below the minimum are harsh enough that no team will go there. The deadline to get up to that number is opening day.

After the Lauri extension today, Lauri's active roster is at 133 mil with 32 mil of cap holds in Kira Lewis Jr and THT. They've managed to give Lauri an extra 18mil to his current salary so they've crossed the team minimum salary threshold you've pointed out.  

I assume any Ingram deal is going to have to include Kessler. Jazz can't just absorb 34 mil of excess salary but they can easily trade match for an Ingram deal.

The simplest deal I found was just Kessler+John Collins for Ingram and it makes sense for both teams.

NOP gets their starting center and no longer have to worry about paying Ingram a crap ton of money. They have to eat Collins' unappetizing deal for this season and the next, but combined will still make less than 1 year of Ingram's new extension. 

Jazz get off of Collins' deal which they've been trying to do since they acquired the guy. They obviously get better on paper with Ingram but are faced with paying Ingram his big money. It's a bit confusing why the Jazz are interested in Ingram. He hasn't really shown he can be more than a 2nd option at best, much like Lauri. In this West they need more than just 2 2nd-tier stars to be competitive. 

But maybe they really value getting off of Collins that bad? Who knows what Ainge is thinking.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
Warriors final offer for Lauri Markkanen:

Moses Moody, multiple first-round picks, pick swaps and second-rounders, per @ShamsCharania

Golden State refused to offer Brandin Podziemski

That's because he's a Santa Clara Bronco!!!

Johnny O'Neil shot terribly this season or he'd be our 3rd drafted player in 3 years.

[DanSchwartzgan]

After the Lauri extension today, Lauri's active roster is at 133 mil with 32 mil of cap holds in Kira Lewis Jr and THT. They've managed to give Lauri an extra 18mil to his current salary so they've crossed the team minimum salary threshold you've pointed out.  

I think you mean they added $24mm to the $18mm he was going to make to take him up to a full 30% Max in 24/25 of $42mm. They had to let go of the Lewis/THT cap holds to do this deal.

The extension starts at a 30% Max also, but there is a small step back in 26/27 when they project to have space (and before they pay George).  Then, it grows by 8% again the final two years.  It ends up being about a $12mm discount from what he could have gotten had he just gone with straight 8% raises the whole time.  So, in essence, they split the $24mm raise in 24/25 with Lauri giving half of that back over the out years of the extension compared to his full max.  Also of note, this ends up being a 'declining' contract, not in real terms, but in terms of percent of cap.  The final year of the deal is 26% of the cap.

I can see something based around Collins for Ingram as you suggest, but I can't see Ainge giving up much of value to complete the deal.  Who else is going to pay anything of value for the privilege of overpaying Ingram a year from now with the possibility he can walk?  It is more likely to me that its Eubanks or some filler salary.  Or, if it is Kessler, that NO has to send something else to Utah.  Whatever happens, NO needs to drop some salary to get under the tax and needs a center from somewhere (Utah or a 3rd team).

[F Gump]

Just a note to mention that the idea and ease of doing Ingram for Kessler+ completely changed with the Markkanen deal.

Because UT has now spent most of its cap room, the fit of the deal and motivations for both teams are much less.

NO still could definitely use a C, and also some salary reduction. How the specific salary match numbers work now, and what that does to the window to build a win-win trade that might excite both teams (if there is one) --- that's a question I haven't had time to explore yet. But it's not as obvious a fit anymore.

[SleepingHero]

@marcstein

League sources tell @TheSteinLine that France star Guerschon Yabusele has one season left on his Real Madrid contract - with an NBA buyout of $2.5 million.
The buyout was just $1 million had Yabusele been pursued by an NBA team before July 15.
More NBA: http://marcstein.substack.com/

[SleepingHero]

@ShamsCharania
Just In: France’s Guerschon Yabusele is in serious talks on a deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, league sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. Yabusele is resolving his $2.5 million contract buyout with Real Madrid as he nears NBA return.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Good pickup for Sixers. Added depth. His Olympics performance drew a lot of attention.

[Scott41theMavs]

Good pickup for Sixers. Added depth. His Olympics performance drew a lot of attention.

We could have used him. If this was the Donnie era, I'd be engaging in some serious pitchfork sharpening, but Nico gets something of a pass here. We still need a legit backup for PJ other than the sometimes-reliable Maxi.

[SleepingHero]

We could have used him. If this was the Donnie era, I'd be engaging in some serious pitchfork sharpening, but Nico gets something of a pass here. We still need a legit backup for PJ other than the sometimes-reliable Maxi.

The only objection I have to this line of thinking is asking "isn't that what OMAX is for?"


We all want him to take the next step. How can we ask of that if we have a bonafide backup eating up his minutes? 

Another question I guess could be asked is can Omax even get minutes on this team?

[mvossman]

We could have used him. If this was the Donnie era, I'd be engaging in some serious pitchfork sharpening, but Nico gets something of a pass here. We still need a legit backup for PJ other than the sometimes-reliable Maxi.

Naji.

[BigDirk41]

The only objection I have to this line of thinking is asking "isn't that what OMAX is for?"


We all want him to take the next step. How can we ask of that if we have a bonafide backup eating up his minutes? 

Another question I guess could be asked is can Omax even get minutes on this team?

I personally don't see Omax as a rotation piece from what he showed in summer league. He's definitely not going to be relied on as a backup. He's definitely a quality defender with a crazy wingspan, but he hasn't shown the ability to shoot yet. He just doesn't look like a good shooter to me. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Naji.

I hope we use Naji more at the 3 than the 4, like DJJ last year.  Luka/Kyrie/BigSF/PJ/Lively...  is ideal.

IMO, backup PF is our biggest roster need.

[mvossman]

I hope we use Naji more at the 3 than the 4, like DJJ last year.  Luka/Kyrie/BigSF/PJ/Lively...  is ideal.

IMO, backup PF is our biggest roster need.

DJJ played plenty of backup 4, especially when Maxi was out.  Naji is more suited to that role than DJJ was.  He is taller, longer, bigger, stronger and more aggressive.  He is a big wing who can defend either forward position as needed.  A backup PF would need multiple injuries to see significant playing time.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

DJJ played plenty of backup 4, especially when Maxi was out.  Naji is more suited to that role than DJJ was.  He is taller, longer, bigger, stronger and more aggressive.  He is a big wing who can defend either forward position as needed.  A backup PF would need multiple injuries to see significant playing time.

Not sure you're looking at it from total minutes, rather than starter/bench.  Overtime aside, each of the five spots have 3,936 minutes in the regular season (82 x 48).  PJ played 2,219 minutes last year.  That leaves 1,717 minutes left at backup PF.  If you split Naji's 1,254 minutes and split them between SF and PF, that leaves 1,090 minutes (approximately Maxi's minutes last year).  Do we really want to keep riding Maxi?  IMO it's a hole.

[mvossman]

Not sure you're looking at it from total minutes, rather than starter/bench.  Overtime aside, each of the five spots have 3,936 minutes in the regular season (82 x 48).  PJ played 2,219 minutes last year.  That leaves 1,717 minutes left at backup PF.  If you split Naji's 1,254 minutes and split them between SF and PF, that leaves 1,090 minutes (approximately Maxi's minutes last year).  Do we really want to keep riding Maxi?  IMO it's a hole.

If you are looking at it from a total minutes standpoint, Luka is more than capable of playing the PF spot defensively, especially against second units.  There will also be developmental minutes for Omax as well as a lot of garbage minutes where it doesn't matter who is out there.  Last season Omax and Morris combined for roughly 550 minutes and I expect Omax to get a lot more this coming season.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

If you are looking at it from a total minutes standpoint, Luka is more than capable of playing the PF spot defensively, especially against second units.  There will also be developmental minutes for Omax as well as a lot of garbage minutes where it doesn't matter who is out there.  Last season Omax and Morris combined for roughly 550 minutes and I expect Omax to get a lot more this coming season.

re: Luka, yes we all know he is a PF/SF defensively.  That doesn't eat into the PF minutes; it's just de facto.  

You have much higher hopes for Omax than I, but same theory stands.  If he becomes an NBA rotation piece level player I see him more as a big SF, like OG or Tari.

Issue here is that Maxi is spent.

[F Gump]

1 If you are looking at it from a total minutes standpoint, Luka is more than capable of playing the PF spot defensively, especially against second units. 

2  There will also be developmental minutes for Omax as well as a lot of garbage minutes where it doesn't matter who is out there.  Last season Omax and Morris combined for roughly 550 minutes and I expect Omax to get a lot more this coming season.

I think the question of minutes by position is not possible to define in any meaningful way. The Mavs will play maybe 150-200* combos in the early games, not just starters and backups in platoons, and players will slide across multiple positions within the very same play. They will change who defends whom depending on the opponent's players. Sometimes they will play zone, adding a completely different nuance.

* That estimate is based on the playoffs, when they played a MUCH tighter set of players; in only 22 games they played 154 different lineups.

And once you get a single injury, it all changes. Last year they played 643 different combos

1 As for PF, I just think the Mavs will have a normal PF-type backup to PJW, rather than an oversized PG that they can slide into the position to make do. I also observe that Luka, as a starter, is going to typically be playing against starters. So the opportunity to have him playing regular and significant minutes as a backup PF against backups - and that being their answer for a backup PF -  will tend to be limited. Just how I see it.

Another factor to consider is that Luka has also expressed a preference for the Mavs having a size advantage when he's on the floor. That happens more naturally when he plays PG not PF, so that his size advantage is not lost, and I would think they will skew more towards ways to play bully ball if they can (with a size advantage and dunks galore) rather than small ball.

2 I can't envision either OMax or Morris being a meaningful answer to excellent backup play at PF. OMax is not good, and not close, and should be in GL. When (if?) he ever gets his skills at a much higher level, by showing excellence in them at a lower level, okay -- but he is world's away right now. And we all know Morris is not an answer to playing time except in a catastrophic emergency.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I think the question of minutes by position is not possible to define in any meaningful way. The Mavs will play maybe 150-200* combos in the early games, not just starters and backups in platoons, and players will slide across multiple positions within the very same play. They will change who defends whom depending on the opponent's players. Sometimes they will play zone, adding a completely different nuance.

* That estimate is based on the playoffs, when they played a MUCH tighter set of players; in only 22 games they played 154 different lineups.

And once you get a single injury, it all changes. Last year they played 643 different combos

1 As for PF, I just think the Mavs will have a normal PF-type backup to PJW, rather than an oversized PG that they can slide into the position to make do. I also observe that Luka, as a starter, is going to typically be playing against starters. So the opportunity to have him playing regular and significant minutes as a backup PF against backups - and that being their answer for a backup PF -  will tend to be limited. Just how I see it.

Another factor to consider is that Luka has also expressed a preference for the Mavs having a size advantage when he's on the floor. That happens more naturally when he plays PG not PF, so that his size advantage is not lost, and I would think they will skew more towards ways to play bully ball if they can (with a size advantage and dunks galore) rather than small ball.

2 I can't envision either OMax or Morris being a meaningful answer to excellent backup play at PF. OMax is not good, and not close, and should be in GL. When (if?) he ever gets his skills at a much higher level, by showing excellence in them at a lower level, okay -- but he is world's away right now. And we all know Morris is not an answer to playing time except in a catastrophic emergency.

Spot on, all points.

I realize it's way more complex than just total minutes at each defined position, but it's certainly better than just looking at 48 minutes and every player plays every game.

I'd like to see Naji come in for Klay more than for PJ.  That Luka size advantage gets negated with SGs playing SF.  

I stated this summer that Omax is officially a bust.  Obviously the Mavs' brain trust doesn't agree, but I think they'll get there.

[mvossman]

I think the question of minutes by position is not possible to define in any meaningful way. The Mavs will play maybe 150-200 combos in the early games, not just starters and backups in platoons, and players will slide across multiple positions within the very same play. They will change who defends whom depending on the opponent's players. Sometimes they will play zone, adding a completely different nuance.

And once you get a single injury, it all changes. Last year they played 643 different combos

1 As for PF, I just think the Mavs will have a normal PF-type backup to PJW, rather than an oversized PG that they can slide into the position to make do. I also observe that Luka, as a starter, is going to typically be playing against starters. So the opportunity to have him playing regular and significant minutes as a backup PF against backups - and that being their answer for a backup PF -  will tend to be limited. Just how I see it.

Another factor to consider is that Luka has also expressed a preference for the Mavs having a size advantage when he's on the floor. That happens more naturally when he plays PG not PF, so that his size advantage is not lost, and I would think they will skew more towards ways to play bully ball if they can (with a size advantage and dunks galore) rather than small ball.

2 I can't envision either OMax or Morris being a meaningful answer to excellent backup play at PF. OMax is not good, and not close, and should be in GL. When (if?) he ever gets his skills at a much higher level, by showing excellence in them at a lower level, okay -- but he is world's away right now. And we all know Morris is not an answer to playing time except in a catastrophic emergency.

This is more a question of depth than who gets penciled in as the backup PF.  Maxi is probably the guy penciled in there, but my guess is that Naji plays more actual minutes in that role.

The question is what happens when say both Maxi and PJ are out?  My guess is that the forward rotation will be 2 of Naji/Luka/Klay for any meaningful minutes (assuming Omax is not ready).  That makes the lineup a little smaller, but really with Lively/Gafford at center its bigger than anything they WCF team could put out there.  What backup PF are going to get that we would rather have on the court than one of those three guys?  

I agree with your first point that its not really about backup PF minutes (or in my mind the backup PF position at all).  This team has enough size that they can afford to miss a couple of players and still put a reasonably sized team on the court.  I'm not sure why folks are still obsessed with making this team bigger.  In the playoffs our easiest series was against the biggest team in the NBA (and that was without Maxi for most of it).  The teams we struggled with (OKC, Boston) played much smaller.  Besides, Naji is bigger than DJJ, Klay is bigger than THJ and Grimes and Din are as big or bigger than Green, Exum and Hardy.  We already got bigger.