FA: Spencer Dinwiddie Heads to DAL | 1 yr/vet min

[Smitty]

Ya, this is precisely my point, or better...  let's upgrade him.

Thoughts on a PF/C swing replacement?  Ideally I'd love Zach Collins, but am good with Nance Jr.

If Maxi didn’t play a minute next year, I think his “role” is already filled with the current roster. Naji as the backup 4. PJ the small ball or 5-out Center.

Also, I’m not writing off Lively. When he was drafted I thought he was a year or two away and I was wrong. Maybe he can match the output that Maxi provided from outside (2.1 3PA | 34.8 3P%) and be your 5-out Center.

[mvossman]

The Maxi talk is a bit extreme imo. He’s played 930 minutes and 871 minutes the last two seasons. I suspect he’ll play about 800 minutes or less this year. Hardly worth getting worked up about either way.

Powell played 836 minutes last year and we don’t talk about him anymore…

Although I am on the side that thinks Maxi will get less minutes, and most of them will be due to injury at the 5 or 4, I think comparing him to Powell is going too far.  Powell got most of those minutes before Gafford was on the team (and when Maxi was hurt).  It was very clear in the second half of last season that Maxi was a higher priority at the 5 than Powell.

[Smitty]

Although I am on the side that thinks Maxi will get less minutes, and most of them will be due to injury at the 5 or 4, I think comparing him to Powell is going too far.  Powell got most of those minutes before Gafford was on the team (and when Maxi was hurt).  It was very clear in the second half of last season that Maxi was a higher priority at the 5 than Powell.

Of course Maxi is more important than Powell. Just showing how little impact Maxi has made the last two years and used someone like Powell to show how few 800 minutes is in an 82 game season.

[F Gump]

So you complained earlier that I use small sample, and then use a smaller sample to make your argument.

No. (1) I simply observed that ALL of the numbers are sss, and therefore very suspect. (2) BUT, I said, here's some in the same group that you are using, that you seem to be ignoring because they contradict your thesis.

I'm not sure what your point/argument is regarding Luka being a PG on offense.  Clearly the fact that Luka is generally the second biggest player on the court and generally guards forwards has an impact to lineup construction.  

My point is that Luka won't be using up minutes out of that 48 mpg PF bucket. He's going to be playing PG. On D, there will be switching and zones, but who they wind up guarding on this possession or that doesn't change the lineup - they aren't platooning in and out when they go from one end to the other.

Given that Naji and Grimes are his best (non center) defensive options off the bench.

Their "best (non center) defensive options off the bench" should be Maxi, Exum, Naji, and Grimes, all potentially 3-and-D players. The value of Naji and Grimes - both no more than backups on worse teams - and their ability to fit well in the various available backup minutes here remains to be seen. Accordingly, their minutes are very much TBD.

You mention what happened last season with new imports, but that was a crappy team being remodeled, and Kidd had few holdovers he could trust from the prior year. That's all changed for this fall - now he starts with the return of essentially a full NBA Finalist, with plenty of players to fill the minutes once you include Klay,* and a team that was great leading to the playoffs, so I expect he'll lean on that existing given until he figures out who he can trust to mess with a winner.  The new guys are just icing on the cake, potentially.

* The players Kidd knows who can provide all the minutes they need for a game - Luka 36 Kyrie 34 Klay 32 Gafford 24 Lively 24 PJW 32 Maxi 18 Exum 18 Hardy 10  (and maybe SD at about 15, because he's a returnee). That leaves no "room" for Naji and Grimes to begin with, nor Omax or Powell either, and no minutes they have to fill, so they will have to outcompete someone already entrenched for some of their minutes.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Given that Naji and Grimes are his best (non center) defensive options off the bench.

Their "best (non center) defensive options off the bench" should be Maxi, Exum, Naji, and Grimes, all potentially 3-and-D players. The value of Naji and Grimes - both no more than backups on worse teams - and their ability to fit well in the various available backup minutes here remains to be seen. Accordingly, their minutes are very much TBD.

You mention what happened last season with new imports, but that was a crappy team being remodeled, and Kidd had few holdovers he could trust from the prior year. That's all changed for this fall - now he starts with the return of essentially a full NBA Finalist, with plenty of players to fill the minutes once you include Klay,* and a team that was great leading to the playoffs, so I expect he'll lean on that existing given until he figures out who he can trust to mess with a winner.  The new guys are just icing on the cake, potentially.

* The players Kidd knows who can provide all the minutes they need for a game - Luka 36 Kyrie 34 Klay 32 Gafford 24 Lively 24 PJW 32 Maxi 18 Exum 18 Hardy 10  (and maybe SD at about 15, because he's a returnee). That leaves no "room" for Naji and Grimes to begin with, nor Omax or Powell either, and no minutes they have to fill, so they will have to outcompete someone already entrenched for some of their minutes.

Maxi plays around 20% of the minutes provided to one position.  Stating his minutes by game ignores the fact he won't be playing a reliable number of games.  As situated, Maxi will play limited games; whatever he provides should be looked at as pennies from heaven, but not predicted.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

What I can't believe is that 9 pages have been devoted to Spencer Dinwiddie's return. I bet he's stoked if he reads this.

[mvossman]

Given that Naji and Grimes are his best (non center) defensive options off the bench.

Their "best (non center) defensive options off the bench" should be Maxi, Exum, Naji, and Grimes, all potentially 3-and-D players. The value of Naji and Grimes - both no more than backups on worse teams - and their ability to fit well in the various available backup minutes here remains to be seen. Accordingly, their minutes are very much TBD.

You mention what happened last season with new imports, but that was a crappy team being remodeled, and Kidd had few holdovers he could trust from the prior year. That's all changed for this fall - now he starts with the return of essentially a full NBA Finalist, with plenty of players to fill the minutes once you include Klay,* and a team that was great leading to the playoffs, so I expect he'll lean on that existing given until he figures out who he can trust to mess with a winner.  The new guys are just icing on the cake, potentially.

* The players Kidd knows who can provide all the minutes they need for a game - Luka 36 Kyrie 34 Klay 32 Gafford 24 Lively 24 PJW 32 Maxi 18 Exum 18 Hardy 10  (and maybe SD at about 15, because he's a returnee). That leaves no "room" for Naji and Grimes to begin with, nor Omax or Powell either, and no minutes they have to fill, so they will have to outcompete someone already entrenched for some of their minutes.

Yeah, we will just have to agree to disagree on pretty much all of this.  I think the idea that Luka size and defensive fit has no bearing on lineups because he is a PG on offense is a very outdated concept.  As for playing time, I would be more than willing to make a sig bet that Naji/Grimes get more minutes than Maxi/Exum.

[mvossman]

What I can't believe is that 9 pages have been devoted to Spencer Dinwiddie's return. I bet he's stoked if he reads this. 

To be fair, the last 4 pages have been an ass whipping argument (me being the biggest culprit) over Maxi Kleber minutes.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Yeah, we will just have to agree to disagree on pretty much all of this.  I think the idea that Luka size and defensive fit has no bearing on lineups because he is a PG on offense is a very outdated concept.  As for playing time, I would be more than willing to make a sig bet that Naji/Grimes get more minutes than Maxi/Exum.

Grimes is not a distributor/ballhandler... Din will take Exum's minutes, not Grimes.

Maxi is at the end of his career.  Dude is averaging 20% playing of the minutes offered.  We can't depend on him, yet he's the only PF/C on the roster.  Needs to be replaced.  Love Naji getting some of those minutes, but he's undersized for too much burn at PF.  I'd like to see him backup Klay more than PJ.

[mvossman]

Grimes is not a distributor/ballhandler... Din will take Exum's minutes, not Grimes.

Maxi is at the end of his career.  Dude is averaging 20% playing of the minutes offered.  We can't depend on him, yet he's the only PF/C on the roster.  Needs to be replaced.  Love Naji getting some of those minutes, but he's undersized for too much burn at PF.  I'd like to see him backup Klay more than PJ.

Naji is a lot closer to PJ size than Klay size.  He also has a very similar game to PJ, while Grimes has a very similar game to Klay.

I'm still trying to figure out what exactly is Klay's defensive role in the starting lineup?  I think folks tend to think of him as the "3", but who is guarding the point of attack if its not a big wing?  Between Klay and Luka, who is guarding the bigger slower player?  Klay will be the second smallest player in the starting lineup, and he may be playing POA defender by default.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Naji is a lot closer to PJ size than Klay size.  He also has a very similar game to PJ, while Grimes has a very similar game to Klay.

I'm still trying to figure out what exactly is Klay's defensive role in the starting lineup?  I think folks tend to think of him as the "3", but who is guarding the point of attack if its not a big wing?  Between Klay and Luka, who is guarding the bigger slower player?  Klay will be the second smallest player in the starting lineup, and he may be playing POA defender by default.

That doesn't sound too encouraging. Maybe 5 years ago. This is where DJJ is going to be missed, unless they start Marshall, and bring Klay off the bench.

[mvossman]

That doesn't sound too encouraging. Maybe 5 years ago. This is where DJJ is going to be missed, unless they start Marshall, and bring Klay off the bench.

Even with DJJ they would still be starting Klay (DJJ would be playing the Naji role as backup forward off the bench).  After 5 minutes one of the big three can sub out and the three can be staggered for most of the rest of the game, so its probably less of an issue than it seems.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Even with DJJ they would still be starting Klay (DJJ would be playing the Naji role as backup forward off the bench).  After 5 minutes one of the big three can sub out and the three can be staggered for most of the rest of the game, so its probably less of an issue than it seems.

Fair enough. Just have to wait and see how things shake out. I'm sure Kidd will be fluid with his lineups depending on matchups.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Naji is a lot closer to PJ size than Klay size.  He also has a very similar game to PJ, while Grimes has a very similar game to Klay.

I'm still trying to figure out what exactly is Klay's defensive role in the starting lineup?  I think folks tend to think of him as the "3", but who is guarding the point of attack if its not a big wing?  Between Klay and Luka, who is guarding the bigger slower player?  Klay will be the second smallest player in the starting lineup, and he may be playing POA defender by default.

Well, that's the problem.  Klay isn't the ideal SF on this starting roster.  I'm not looking to replace Klay with the identical backup, but more of a Naji.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

DFS, DJJ, and Naji (will) prove that this type of SF/PF is best in a lineup with Luka. I'm not complaining about Klay, it's just not the perfect match.

[mvossman]

Well, that's the problem.  Klay isn't the ideal SF on this starting roster.  I'm not looking to replace Klay with the identical backup, but more of a Naji.

Klay isn't ideal to the starting lineup to the degree that he struggles guarding the POA.  His offense is a perfect fit.  Of the guys coming off the bench, Grimes has the most similar offensive game to Klay, while being a quality POA defender.  I would not be surprised if Grimes ends up moving to the starting unit in the long run.  Naji is very useful off the bench as he can backup multiple positions.

[KillerLeft]

There's more than one way to build a lineup around Luka, but ALL viable ways must include an on-ball defender. Many teams (most, even?) run their offense through a bigger guy these days, but there are still the SGA, Brunson, Mitchell, Fox, Haliburton types out there.

That's what made DJJ so valuable. He could passably guard both THAT type AND guys like Booker, Harden, and even guys like Paul George.

I'm not sure who will be the more versatile on-ball guy between Marshall and Grimes, but I think they're both likely to be superior to Thompson in that capacity. But, that's just with this roster construction. Hypothetically, if you had Paul George at the 3 (just for example), you could easily pencil in someone like Grimes at the 2 instead of Kyrie. It's all just about synergy, as in how to adequately cover the most bases with the players you have in combination. There's no right way, but I do have questions about the defenisve synergy of what we believe to be the current starting lineup.

The first indicator that it's not set up perfectly is if they're closing with a different lineup than they're starting. There's nothing really wrong with doing that, but it would be an indication that their top 5 players aren't the exact, right top 5 players in terms of fit.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Ideally, I'd like Grimes to mainly backup Luka and Kyrie, trading distribution for defense.

Likewise, I'd like Naji to mainly backup Klay, trading scoring with more defense.

This is why in my mind we're lacking a swing PF/C to backup PJ. You can't rely on Maxi. Zach Collins would be perfect, but I doubt SAS would make him available given his synergy with Wimby.

[mvossman]

Ideally, I'd like Grimes to mainly backup Luka and Kyrie, trading distribution for defense.

Likewise, I'd like Naji to mainly backup Klay, trading scoring with more defense.

This is why in my mind we're lacking a swing PF/C to backup PJ.  You can't rely on Maxi.  Zach Collins would be perfect, but I doubt SAS would make him available given his synergy with Wimby.

I'm guessing Din/Exum (offense/defense) will be the primary backups to Luka/Kyrie (with the ideal of keeping two creators on the floor).  Both Naji and Grimes can backup Klay trading offense for defense.  

Why do we need to backup PJ with a center?  Last season we used DJJ at backup 4 (especially when Maxi was out).  Naji is more suited to defend the 4 than DJJ is.  Who is these backup 4s we are worried about?

[SleepingHero]

I wonder if Klay gets moved to the PJ role to close games, and PJ gets sit for another guy like Marshall or Grimes.