Trade & FA 2024-25:

[F Gump]

We can be certain they have already had discussions about the summer of 25. And right now they are deciding if they want to explore an extension with Hardy, or wait until RFA hits in 25 and play it by ear.

Punting on him now to be assured of value for him, while also freeing a spot, that's surely been discussed. FWIW if they sell Hardy for a pick with nothing coming back, they get Hardy's slot to fill, but don't gain any money for slot 15 -- in fact, they lose a bit.

[Smitty]

My take on the latest bit of news is that Stein is plugged in and Markieff Morris will be a Mav. Full stop.

Then, that means the rest of his report about backcourt help IS possible to add with waiving Lawson. We know it’s legal, as we’ve done the math, but we’re stuck on if it’s practical to only have a $500k cushion below the apron for the whole season.

More importantly, I personally find that report encouraging because I too see a hole and role at PG. Hardy is not the answer in my opinion and Exum, who has a long history of injuries and fell out of flavor in the playoffs, was by all reports a Lindsey guy.

I actually like Exum and think he would be good again in the regular season, like last year, but maybe they/Nico view it differently.

[KillerLeft]

I can see the logic in moving off of Exum to bring in a vet min PG (let's say Dinwiddie or Lowry in this hypothetical). They improve the offense (the theme of this summer) and avoid dealing with Exum's free agency next summer, when they would very likely just let him walk (unless he's even more surprisingly good this season than last). If that new vet minimum PG is on a multi-year deal, they have that slot sewn up next year as they negotiate an extension with Kyrie.

But, it doesn't work unless Grimes is good to go. Otherwise, you're really going to miss Exum's defense.

[KillerLeft]

My take on the latest bit of news is that Stein is plugged in and Markieff Morris will be a Mav. Full stop.

Then, that means the rest of his report about backcourt help IS possible to add with waiving Lawson. We know it’s legal, as we’ve done the math, but we’re stuck on if it’s practical to only have a $500k cushion below the apron for the whole season.

More importantly, I personally find that report encouraging because I too see a hole and role at PG. Hardy is not the answer in my opinion and Exum, who has a long history of injuries and fell out of flavor in the playoffs, was by all reports a Lindsey guy.

I actually like Exum and think he would be good again in the regular season, like last year, but maybe they/Nico view it differently.

The problem is that you literally cannot play everyone at some point. 

Look, I wouldn't do any of this (given what we know, so far) but if they add someone who "is the answer" as a bench PG from among the pool of qualified candidates out there (who want to find jobs where they'll play), that means that either Exum or Hardy (maybe both) are about to have their path to minutes narrowed considerably, with both of them in contract years. 

Something doesn't add up for me. If the Mavs find someone they want, I'd wager that one of those dudes is a goner (maybe even as a means of acquiring that player). I suppose the good news with that line of thinking is that we probably don't have to limit our thinking to the three free agent targets listed earlier, though I'm sure they're all on the list.

[F Gump]

About Exum, would we rather have the injury prone but bigger Exum, or the smaller older but more accomplished Lowry? The fact that they could combine leftovers plus Exum salary into a slot paying about 4.6M (or less, of course) and they have leftover MLE at 4.2 or so could be a fit.

And doesn't take a trade for any of those guys already mentioned, like Lowry, though you do need a team somewhere who wants Exum.

Like DET?

[SleepingHero]

I may have to amend my “we are done” statement.  If you want to marry this with the idea that Morris is returning, the most likely change isn’t Maxi or Powell, it is Exum.  He’s guaranteed now (or I haven’t seen anything that says he amended his deadline).  I would think he would be easy enough to move (maybe even getting a second back).  If we need more pure point play, and need room for a 14th and 15th minimum, that is probably the way they’d do it.

Exum could also be traded for a PG making up to about $4.5mm (we have about $1.5mm of space under the apron with 14 and a cushion).  Or, he could be traded for air (as above) and we could use an exception to bring in a PG and keep Morris as #14.

I guess my question is whether any of these guys being considered is really better than Exum.

I can't imagine the Mavs getting rid of Exum after the season he's had and at the contract he's at.

But I'm starting to lean closer with KL that Hardy may be the odd man out weirdly enough. Hardy+Maxi for Kelly Olynyk makes a lot sense to me right now.

[Smitty]

The problem is that you literally cannot play everyone at some point. 

Look, I wouldn't do any of this (given what we know, so far) but if they add someone who "is the answer" as a bench PG from among the pool of qualified candidates out there (who want to find jobs where they'll play), that means that either Exum or Hardy (maybe both) are about to have their path to minutes narrowed considerably, with both of them in contract years. 

Something doesn't add up for me. If the Mavs find someone they want, I'd wager that one of those dudes is a goner (maybe even as a means of acquiring that player). I suppose the good news with that line of thinking is that we probably don't have to limit our thinking to the three free agent targets listed earlier, though I'm sure they're all on the list.

I know this might be a controversial take but I’d have no problem with them moving Exum or Hardy for what they think is an upgrade. I’m not married to either of them. I have Exum way ahead of Hardy for what this team needs but I’ve pointed out already that LukaiExum missed 60+ games last year and Hardy is not a PG. Hardy is a Nico guy though, Exum was a Lindsey guy…

[dirkfansince1998]

Is any of the remaining names actually better than Exum? Or more available? Not sure if you can find an upgrade for the minimum. Feels like most of the veteran names we are discussing are living off their reputation. Not their actual production/impact last season.
Lowry can still shoot but if the Mavs want a third ballhandler that runs the offense he isn't it. SD is a high volume low efficiency chucker. Basically what he has been for the last 3-5 years if we ignore his stretch with the Mavs. Are we sure that the Mavs can resurrect his career again?

Exum 8/3/3 in 20 minutes shooting 53/49/78
Lowry 8/3/4 in 28 minutes shooting 43/39/84
SD 10/3/5 in 28 minutes shooting 39/34/81

[KillerLeft]

I know this might be a controversial take but I’d have no problem with them moving Exum or Hardy for what they think is an upgrade. I’m not married to either of them. I have Exum way ahead of Hardy for what this team needs but I’ve pointed out already that LukaiExum missed 60+ games last year and Hardy is not a PG. Hardy is a Nico guy though, Exum was a Lindsey guy…

I'm not married to them, either. I could get behind this for both on-court and financial reasons (they know more about what's trying to be accomplished in both areas than we), but what I DON'T like is the idea that they'd move even more away from youth and towards crusty vets than they already have this summer. 

Green for Thompson doesn't bother me - that one makes sense on a variety of levels. But, Lowry for Exum (for example)? Or, even worse, for Hardy? 

And again, let's say it's not moving one of those guys out, and they're just blowing off "the cushion." That's essentially the same thing as trading one of them if this new guy plays ahead of them, and if he doesn't play ahead of them, what the hell are we even doing worrying about this so much?

[Chicagojk]

I am a Exum fan and thought he should have been used a bit more last year. His injury concerns are real though. He is also a guy who gets dinged pretty easily.

Lowry has always been a favorite for me and I think he can still play a role. I just don't think this is the best spot for him. I think he will have other options with a more defined role. Dinwiddie on the mavs in 22 is a better player then Exum. The Dinnwiddie of last year?????

DSW- minimum guy as a third PG insurance...chance to compete against Exum. Could take that role if Exum got hurt
Lowry- Backup point guard. Wouldn't need Exum. Will take more than the minimum. Would probably take a lot of the backup guard minutes.
Dinwiddie- Pretty much the same as Lowry.

I think a DSJ is probably the more likely outcome. If we have questions on Exum or think the gap is much larger with Lowry/Din to Exum than I could see this being looked into. I like Exum thoug.

[KillerLeft]

I can't imagine the Mavs getting rid of Exum after the season he's had and at the contract he's at.

But I'm starting to lean closer with KL that Hardy may be the odd man out weirdly enough. Hardy+Maxi for Kelly Olynyk makes a lot sense to me right now.

That's the worst part of this (at least the current version in my mind, which might be way off from reality). I doubt it's going to be some big thing like this that we'd like. 

I think it's going to be more like avoiding extension/re-signing either Hardy or Exum next summer, sold as "fixing bench PG" this summer. Nothing big, nothing else. Just that. Cool, and I can even understand it, but I felt more excited when I thought they were done, personally. It will be interesting how this plays out.

[Chicagojk]

I am a big Hardy fan too. I am having trouble seeing a clear role for him. Entering the offseason I saw a role for him. That has been a bit muddied. I think he is close to taking a step though. His upcoming FA is interesting though. I am sure he and his agency are well aware of the Max Christie extension too. I do think these younger players are needed to our development. I want to keep Jaden and may the best player earn minutes.

[Smitty]

I'm not married to them, either. I could get behind this for both on-court and financial reasons (they know more about what's trying to be accomplished in both areas than we), but what I DON'T like is the idea that they'd move even more away from youth and towards crusty vets than they already have this summer. 

Green for Thompson doesn't bother me - that one makes sense on a variety of levels. But, Lowry for Exum (for example)? Or, even worse, for Hardy? 

And again, let's say it's not moving one of those guys out, and they're just blowing off "the cushion." That's essentially the same thing as trading one of them if this new guy plays ahead of them, and if he doesn't play ahead of them, what the hell are we even doing worrying about this so much?

I like this post a lot and don’t have a rebuttal lol

[JamesConway912]

Exum looked like a worldbeater at times during the regular season but then completely vanished when it mattered. I could see how he has worn out his welcome here with his play during the playoffs. OTOH Hardy struggled a lot throughout the year but then had his moments in the postseason. He’s also younger and comes with full bird and RFA rights which makes it easier to retain him next summer if he has a good year.

If I had to guess then I’d say they’ll move on from
Exum first but I could see it go either way.

[Chicagojk]

Hollinger free agent PG rankings from a few weeks ago. I wouldn't take his Bords salary rankings seriously.


6. Spencer Dinwiddie, L.A. Lakers: $18,851,993

Dinwiddie is a risky player to me, and I was surprised by this valuation. His offense and shot-creation both fell off sharply this season, across two different teams, and you’re not really employing a 33.3-percent career 3-point shooter as a floor spacer.

While his plus size for a point guard gives him some cross-positional functionality, and he generally held up well on defense last season, I’d be worried that the 31-year-old has lost a step and adjust my offer accordingly. I’m not sure BORD$ has caught up to that yet, as it still weighs his stronger 2022-23 season in putting together this estimate.


8. Dennis Smith Jr., Brooklyn: $13,153,326

One consistent fact about BORD$ is that it rates good defensive players much more highly than the free-agent market historically has. Smith is another example, as an All-Defense-caliber guard who struggles to hit shots from the perimeter. I doubt he gets anywhere near this amount, but he’ll be good value as a disruptive defensive presence off the bench for whichever team lands him.

. Kyle Lowry, Philadelphia: $11,067,500

Lowry is 38, and his play tailed off last season, but my numbers still see him as a valuable player, if no longer a starter. Philadelphia likely would prefer to bring him back and has ample cap room to do it (the Sixers have no Bird rights on Lowry and are limited to a 20 percent raise on his minimum if they sign him without cap room or the room exception). However, the Sixers will have to weigh that against the opportunities to take home run swings with their max cap space. Lowry could also be a popular target for other contenders, but will any want to dig deep enough to offer their full MLE on a one-year deal?

[KillerLeft]

I think a DSJ is probably the more likely outcome.  If we have questions on Exum or think the gap is much larger with Lowry/Din to Exum than I could see this being looked into.  I like Exum thoug.

I like him as a defender a lot, but calling him a solution at PG (on offense) is a huge stretch. Give me Exum OR Hardy over him if filling that role is the goal. Like, by a mile. 

If the goal is to have a minimum player on a 2-3 year deal, rather than one expiring (Exum) then I get it (and like it). But, that would make me think they're even MORE sure Hardy is a PG than I was before this leaked.

[Chicagojk]

Exum looked like a worldbeater at times during the regular season but then completely vanished when it mattered. I could see how he has worn out his welcome here with his play during the playoffs. OTOH Hardy struggled a lot throughout the year but then had his moments in the postseason. He’s also younger and comes with full bird and RFA rights which makes it easier to retain him next summer if he has a good year.

If I had to guess then I’d say they’ll move on from
Exum first but I could see it go either way.

Is Hardy and RFA next year?  If so, that would make me feel much better.

[Chicagojk]

I like him as a defender a lot, but calling him a solution at PG (on offense) is a huge stretch. Give me Exum OR Hardy over him if filling that role is the goal. Like, by a mile. 

If the goal is to have a minimum player on a 2-3 year deal, rather than one expiring (Exum) then I get it (and like it). But, that would make me think they're even MORE sure Hardy is a PG than I was before this leaked.

Yeah, I sort of see him as an emergency option.   The regular season is long and I don't want to go into the season wearing down Luka and Kyrie after a long playoff run.   In this scenario he starts behind Exum.   No guarantee of playing time.    But he will get some chances and maybe he surpasses Exum.

[KillerLeft]

Is Hardy and RFA next year?  If so, that would make me feel much better.

Yes, I think so. But, do you really expect to match an offer, even a modest one, if he's not in the rotation AGAIN? 

I'm telling you, it's now or never for him. Either he has a role from training camp until the end of the season or you might as well ship him off today.

[SleepingHero]

That's the worst part of this (at least the current version in my mind, which might be way off from reality). I doubt it's going to be some big thing like this that we'd like. 

I think it's going to be more like avoiding extension/re-signing either Hardy or Exum next summer, sold as "fixing bench PG" this summer. Nothing big, nothing else. Just that. Cool, and I can even understand it, but I felt more excited when I thought they were done, personally. It will be interesting how this plays out.

Well it doesn't HAVE to be a big thing. They could get it done by waiving Lawson, signing the 2 vets, and enjoy the 200-500k space under the 1st apron and pray they stay under it. 

But if its just selling off Hardy or Exum to the highest bidder, FGump pointed out we'd lose money doing that with Hardy, and Exum shouldn't bring back a return that's worth his value to the team as a player. 

I think they just bite the bullet and sign the 2 vets and if needed trade Exum mid-season for some 2nds if he's balling out.