Trade & FA 2024-25:

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

[Wojnarowski] ESPN Sources: All-NBA forward Pascal Siakam intends to sign a new four-year, $189.5 million maximum contract to return to the Indiana Pacers. Siakam plans to sign deal once league’s free agency moratorium ends on July 6.

[Smitty]

I like Deni, but he shoots 3 threes a game and has been under 32% every season until this last.  I'm not sure he is going to be any better stretching the floor than DJJ.

I like Grimes, but he is going to cost more than Timmy and a second.  We are hoping that's enough to dump Timmy for air.  Why would they add Grimes when they just paid assets for him?

I couldn't disagree with any of this more.

Almost HALF of DJJ's FGA's this year were wide open catch and shoot 3's. The other half of his FGA's were mostly dunks.

42.4 FREQ% - 6+Feet (Wide Open) - DJJ shot 35% 3PT
5.1 FREQ% - 4-6 Feet (Open) - DJJ shot 36% 3PT

DJJ's shot 239 3PA, almost every single one of them Wide Open and had the best 3PT shooting season of his career at a blistering 34.3%.


Deni with only 18.0 FREQ%  6+Feet (Wide Open) and shot 44.4% 3PT.


Neither of these guys are lighting it up from 3 with any kind of volume but the 3's that Luka generates for others is crazy. It's easy to see that these two aren't comparable. And Deni is a 3 level scorer type, just way different than DJJ on that end.


I've already beaten the Grimes thing to death the past few weeks. I'm confident in my opinion there that THJ and the '25 SRP (TOR) which will likely be in the 33-38 pick range is plenty to get it done.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I've already beaten the Grimes thing to death the past few weeks. I'm confident in my opinion there that THJ and the '25 SRP (TOR) which will likely be in the 33-38 pick range is plenty to get it done.

Love your Avdija stats.

Could you enlighten those of us who weren't paying attention on how THJ/2nd is enough to get space AND Grimes?  I see no way this is enough.

[SleepingHero]

I'm a big Avdija fan.  He and Bogdan B. are probably my favorite THJ trade targets.  You can run some offense through either of them.  I give Avdija the edge on D, but Bogdanovic isn't terrible.  I'd feel very comfortable starting Avdija in place of DJJ.  Slightly less comfortable with BB.  In either case, I really like the idea of keeping two of Luka, Kyrie and Deni/Bogdan on the court at all times.  Avdija's contract is very reasonable and declining.  There is still upside there.

As to your deals, I've seen others propose that it would take 2025 and 2031 to get Avdija.  Maybe Green/Hardy instead of THJ is just as good as a distant pick.  But, they have Hardy already in Poole and I wonder if they would value Green that much more than former #10 pick Johnny Davis?  

I'm almost sure THJ/Second isn't enough for space AND Grimes.  They traded 2 seconds, Burks and Bogdanovic for Grimes.  THJ and a second is not a fair return.

Personally, I'd probably do what it takes to get Avdija and either keep Green off the bench or do THJ/Second to get the space for DJJ.  I don't think you have the firepower for Avdija and Grimes and frankly either Green or DJJ as a bench wing is perfectly fine.  

Lively    Gafford
PJ         Maxi
Avdija   OMax
Kyrie     Green or DJJ
Luka     Exum

I love Avdija as a target. He was my #1 guy this past TDL over PJ, Kuzma, and all the rest. I wanted him with Gafford. 

I just don't think Washington is that motivated to move on from him. If they are, then the Mavs should go all in after him. 

I'm almost sure THJ/Second isn't enough for space AND Grimes.  They traded 2 seconds, Burks and Bogdanovic for Grimes.  THJ and a second is not a fair return.

I actually disagree here. We just saw Buddy Hield get traded for 3 2nd round picks. THJ+2nd, and the 2nds for Grimes is relatively fair value given on how you see Bogdanovic vs. THJ.  

But I also don't think Detroit really wants to trade Grimes after less than 20 games with him. So I suppose I'm reaching your same conclusion, just for different reasons.

I think THJ+2nd for space, trade Green+2025 for Avdija, and then resign DJJ so he's our main POA defender off the bench is a fantastic summer.

I'd also try and go after CP3 to run the bench unit for 20 mins a night as a luxury. We need a type of player that is an offensive system unto themselves off the bench. THJ could be that any given night depending his rhythm. CP3 is absolutely that even with his fragility. 

Lively    Gafford
PJ         Maxi
Avdija   OMax
Kyrie     DJJ
Luka     CP3     Exum

[mvossman]

I couldn't disagree with any of this more.

Almost HALF of DJJ's FGA's this year were wide open catch and shoot 3's. The other half of his FGA's were mostly dunks.

42.4 FREQ% - 6+Feet (Wide Open) - DJJ shot 35% 3PT
5.1 FREQ% - 4-6 Feet (Open) - DJJ shot 36% 3PT

DJJ's shot 239 3PA, almost every single one of them Wide Open and had the best 3PT shooting season of his career at a blistering 34.3%.


Deni with only 18.0 FREQ%  6+Feet (Wide Open) and shot 44.4% 3PT.


Neither of these guys are lighting it up from 3 with any kind of volume but the 3's that Luka generates for others is crazy. It's easy to see that these two aren't comparable. And Deni is a 3 level scorer type, just way different than DJJ on that end.


I've already beaten the Grimes thing to death the past few weeks. I'm confident in my opinion there that THJ and the '25 SRP (TOR) which will likely be in the 33-38 pick range is plenty to get it done.

I feel like you are hyper focusing on one year of low volume data and ignoring the rest.  Its hard to know how much that big jump in efficiency is improvement and how much is due to high variance of 3 point shooting.  I have never looked at this before, but the primary purpose of DARKO is to project player performance.  It currently projects Deni to shoot 33.4% and DJJ to shoot 36%.  Will that improve with Luka?  Probably.  DJJ only improved a percent in performance.  Based on what you presented regarding wide open frequency I could see it being more with Deni.  The bottom line is that neither of them shoot enough to truly stretch the floor.

I know Deni is a three level scorer.  He is a good young player.  I am guessing he will cost more than you are proposing.

I guess I don't remember reading your reasoning behind the Grimes trade.  If they actually get him for Timmy and a second I will buy you a beer.

[mvossman]

I actually disagree here. We just saw Buddy Hield get traded for 3 2nd round picks. THJ+2nd, and the 2nds for Grimes is relatively fair value given on how you see Bogdanovic vs. THJ.  

But I also don't think Detroit really wants to trade Grimes after less than 20 games with him. So I suppose I'm reaching your same conclusion, just for different reasons.

I think THJ+2nd for space, trade Green+2025 for Avdija, and then resign DJJ so he's our main POA defender off the bench is a fantastic summer.

I'd also try and go after CP3 to run the bench unit for 20 mins a night as a luxury. We need a type of player that is an offensive system unto themselves off the bench. THJ could be that any given night depending his rhythm. CP3 is absolutely that even with his fragility. 

Lively    Gafford
PJ         Maxi
Avdija   OMax
Kyrie     DJJ
Luka     CP3     Exum

I am really struggling with the Grimes trade argument.  Folks are concerned we might have to send out a first to dump Timmy, but we can send just a second get a significant asset back?  Hield and Bojan are significantly better players than Timmy.  They both have some trade value.  Timmy supposedly had no trade value at the TDL at the height of his value, and then he tanked what little value he had after that.  Timmy + second for Grimes is too good to be true.  That generally means its not going to happen.

EDIT: I missed the part of your post that says Detroit probably not interested in trading Grimes, which is also probably true.

[SleepingHero]

I feel like you are hyper focusing on one year of low volume data and ignoring the rest.  Its hard to know how much that big jump in efficiency is improvement and how much is due to high variance of 3 point shooting.  I have never looked at this before, but the primary purpose of DARKO is to project player performance.  It currently projects Deni to shoot 33.4% and DJJ to shoot 36%.  Will that improve with Luka?  Probably.  DJJ only improved a percent in performance.  Based on what you presented regarding wide open frequency I could see it being more with Deni.  The bottom line is that neither of them shoot enough to truly stretch the floor.

I know Deni is a three level scorer.  He is a good young player.  I am guessing he will cost more than you are proposing.

I guess I don't remember reading your reasoning behind the Grimes trade.  If they actually get him for Timmy and a second I will buy you a beer.

For what it's worth regarding Deni's 3pt shooting:

Career catch and shoot 3's:

2020-21: 31.7%     51.6% frequency 
2021-22: 31.7%     39.7% frequency
2022-23: 31.6%     32.8% frequency
2023-24: 40.5%     20.4% frequency


So you're right that Deni isn't a knockdown 3pt shooter, but these stats tell me as his career has gone on he's learned when and where he likes to shoot a 3. And this last year when he does, that 3 will more than likely go in. This also coincides with him becoming the primary offensive initiator for Washington, thus more drives vs. less standing around the perimeter. 


Career wide open 3's 
2020-21: 31.5%     39.7% frequency 
2021-22: 38.8%     25.4% frequency
2022-23: 33.3%     24.5% frequency
2023-24: 44.4%     18.0% frequency

These stats tell a much different story. Ignore his rookie year and I see a relatively strong 3pt shooter when he's left wide open. It just doesn't happen that often. At worst, Deni wide open attempts at 3s are better than DJJ. Also have to factor in the other stuff Deni can do much better such as driving and kicking. 

Deni's worst quality is his inability to finish at the rim. Something DJJ is much better at. I can see him and DJJ working like Lively and Gafford. Similar roles but they both have different strengths. 

He also can bring the ball up unlike DJJ or PJ.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Thoughts on Josh Green going forward? IMO he's at his ceiling. While that may not be exactly what we need, his contract is at par with his production. If we have a starting SF/PF DJJ upgrade and DJJ coming off the bench, I don't see Green getting higher than 7th/8th in the rotation on a well-balanced championship level roster.

[mvossman]

For what it's worth regarding Deni's 3pt shooting:

Career catch and shoot 3's:

2020-21: 31.7%     51.6% frequency 
2021-22: 31.7%     39.7% frequency
2022-23: 31.6%     32.8% frequency
2023-24: 40.5%     20.4% frequency


So you're right that Deni isn't a knockdown 3pt shooter, but these stats tell me as his career has gone on he's learned when and where he likes to shoot a 3. And this last year when he does, that 3 will more than likely go in. This also coincides with him becoming the primary offensive initiator for Washington, thus more drives vs. less standing around the perimeter. 


Career wide open 3's 
2020-21: 31.5%     39.7% frequency 
2021-22: 38.8%     25.4% frequency
2022-23: 33.3%     24.5% frequency
2023-24: 44.4%     18.0% frequency

These stats tell a much different story. Ignore his rookie year and I see a relatively strong 3pt shooter when he's left wide open. It just doesn't happen that often. At worst, Deni wide open attempts at 3s are better than DJJ. Also have to factor in the other stuff Deni can do much better such as driving and kicking. 

Deni's worst quality is his inability to finish at the rim. Something DJJ is much better at. I can see him and DJJ working like Lively and Gafford. Similar roles but they both have different strengths. 

He also can bring the ball up unlike DJJ or PJ.

He is a decent (those numbers are around league average) wide open three point shooter on low volume (he shot less than 4 threes per 36 this season).  That is not really a floor stretcher.  I would put him in roughly the same category as DJJ and PJ.  I agree that he has more offensive game than DJJ, and by a significant amount.  I do wonder if he is a true POA defender?  Is he somebody that can chase SGA around?  I feel like he is a little more like PJ than DJJ from that standpoint.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

For what it's worth regarding Deni's 3pt shooting:

Career catch and shoot 3's:

2020-21: 31.7%     51.6% frequency 
2021-22: 31.7%     39.7% frequency
2022-23: 31.6%     32.8% frequency
2023-24: 40.5%     20.4% frequency


So you're right that Deni isn't a knockdown 3pt shooter, but these stats tell me as his career has gone on he's learned when and where he likes to shoot a 3. And this last year when he does, that 3 will more than likely go in. This also coincides with him becoming the primary offensive initiator for Washington, thus more drives vs. less standing around the perimeter. 


Career wide open 3's 
2020-21: 31.5%     39.7% frequency 
2021-22: 38.8%     25.4% frequency
2022-23: 33.3%     24.5% frequency
2023-24: 44.4%     18.0% frequency

These stats tell a much different story. Ignore his rookie year and I see a relatively strong 3pt shooter when he's left wide open. It just doesn't happen that often. At worst, Deni wide open attempts at 3s are better than DJJ. Also have to factor in the other stuff Deni can do much better such as driving and kicking. 

Deni's worst quality is his inability to finish at the rim. Something DJJ is much better at. I can see him and DJJ working like Lively and Gafford. Similar roles but they both have different strengths. 

He also can bring the ball up unlike DJJ or PJ.

I guess I'd like to dream bigger than Deni.  While his offensive game is nice, especially the ball handling, but he's not the defensive player we need.

I always get backlash for saying that we need to go after Tari Eason, but would Tari really cost that much more than Deni?  If the price is in the same ballpark, you go with Tari given he's exactly what we need while Deni is a luxury in many respects.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
But I also don't think Detroit really wants to trade Grimes after less than 20 games with him. So I suppose I'm reaching your same conclusion, just for different reasons.

I think THJ+2nd for space, trade Green+2025 for Avdija, and then resign DJJ so he's our main POA defender off the bench is a fantastic summer.
 

That feels more realistic.  I'll join mvossman in buying Smitty a beer if the deal ends up being THJ/2nd for Grimes (maybe two beers).

If I have Avdija as a starter, I don't really care if I have Green or Jones coming off the bench.  Your use of Green to Washington makes more sense than THJ to Washington, so if you can also do the deal with Detroit to retain DJJ, I'm in.

Green and 2025 for Avdija probably isn't enough.  Would you be willing to add 2031?  Unprotected?  Top 3 protected?  Unprotected Pick Swap?  I think that gets you more into the conversation.  If you watched the Marks video, this is the kind of thing he was advocating.  Salary plus both picks for a real difference maker.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

He is a decent (those numbers are around league average) wide open three point shooter on low volume (he shot less than 4 threes per 36 this season).  That is not really a floor stretcher.  I would put him in roughly the same category as DJJ and PJ.  I agree that he has more offensive game than DJJ, and by a significant amount.  I do wonder if he is a true POA defender?  Is he somebody that can chase SGA around?  I feel like he is a little more like PJ than DJJ from that standpoint.

No way, shape, or form is Deni a POA defender.

[mvossman]

That feels more realistic.  I'll join mvossman in buying Smitty a beer if the deal ends up being THJ/2nd for Grimes (maybe two beers).

If I have Avdija as a starter, I don't really care if I have Green or Jones coming off the bench.  Your use of Green to Washington makes more sense than THJ to Washington, so if you can also do the deal with Detroit to retain DJJ, I'm in.

Green and 2025 for Avdija probably isn't enough.  Would you be willing to add 2031?  Unprotected?  Top 3 protected?  Unprotected Pick Swap?  I think that gets you more into the conversation.  If you watched the Marks video, this is the kind of thing he was advocating.  Salary plus both picks for a real difference maker.

Agree with all of this.  Would you rather send Green + both firsts for Deni, or Green + 25 for Caruso?  Either way you dump Timmy and bring DJJ off the bench. Or Timmy + 25 for Grimes?

[Mavs2021]

We need a high degree of difficulty/high percentage shooter that will theoretically shoot even better as a 3rd option, but can also get their own shot off. 

We don´t need another guy that is 100% dependent on Luka/Kyrie delivering him wide open looks that he might or might not hit based on historical evidence. 

Avdija was a bad shooter in Europe. He´s a bad shooter in the NBA. You say his numbers get better with Luka/Kyrie. I say there is also a different level of defense expected against you, when you do not play on the shitty regular season  "nobody bothers to play defense against them" Wizards. Teams would treat Avdija like Giddey until proven otherwise. Also given how bare the talent pool in Washington is, they won´t let him go.

Grimes is another completely unrealistic target. Okay they changed their whole FO/coaching staff, but Grimes is a good 3&D player. You match his contract just to not lose a trade asset. They need to reach the salary cap floor anyway. He´ll be valued as a 1st round pick return at the minimum by Detroit.

[dirkfansince1998]

He is a decent (those numbers are around league average) wide open three point shooter on low volume (he shot less than 4 threes per 36 this season).  That is not really a floor stretcher.  I would put him in roughly the same category as DJJ and PJ.  I agree that he has more offensive game than DJJ, and by a significant amount.  I do wonder if he is a true POA defender?  Is he somebody that can chase SGA around?  I feel like he is a little more like PJ than DJJ from that standpoint.

Last part is why I am so high on him. The way the Mavs defend big and versatile guys that can help in the gaps or at the rim are more important than POA defenders. Players like SGA or Edwards will blow by a defender more often. Having more plus defenders with size would allow the Mavs to double down on their biggest strength.
With the added benefit that Avdija also offers some of the missing shot creation/playmaking. He isn't the 20ppg iso scorer that some posters are asking for but he can do a lot of things within the flow of the offense.

[loki]

Inspired by the Jason Timpf video that KL linked, I found data on pivotfade that allow you to view stats on above the break 3's only. Here are the top 9 Mavs. The bench mob actually shoots it reasonably well, but not on enough volume to make a huge impact. We could expect a healthy Luka to be better next time around, but PJ+DJJ are definitely big concerns. THJ is useless and will kill the Mavs next season if he's still on the roster.



Of the few players from other teams I've looked at so far, Gary Trent Jr seems to stand out. He's made at least 38% of his ATB 3's each of the last 5 seasons. He also hit 51.3% of his wide open 3's on 3.3 attempts/game last season. That's double Exum's volume.

[SleepingHero]

No way, shape, or form is Deni a POA defender.

Totally 100% disagree with that.

Deni is a fantastic defender and can absolutely hang with the likes of SGA, to Lebron, to Morant. 

[Mavs2021]

Last part is why I am so high on him. The way the Mavs defend big and versatile guys that can help in the gaps or at the rim are more important than POA defenders. Players like SGA or Edwards will blow by a defender more often. Having more plus defenders with size would allow the Mavs to double down on their biggest strength.
With the added benefit that Avdija also offers some of the missing shot creation/playmaking. He isn't the 20ppg iso scorer that some posters are asking for but he can do a lot of things within the flow of the offense.

Didn´t know we had such a thing.  

Yes on paper he is a shot creator/playmaker, but what if the other team just plays five metres off him in the play-offs. Then you have a Giddey/Rondo situation. I don´t gamble multiple 1st round picks on somebody that might be as playable as Josh Giddey, but has a vastly different public perception right now. You generate value by taking on players at low points (like Washington or Gafford), not when Avdija is considered the best prospect on an awful team with no urgency to trade that player.

[dirkfansince1998]

Didn´t know we had such a thing.  

Yes on paper he is a shot creator/playmaker, but what if the other team just plays five metres off him in the play-offs. Then you have a Giddey/Rondo situation. I don´t gamble multiple 1st round picks on somebody that might be as playable as Josh Giddey, but has a vastly different public perception right now. You generate value by taking on players at low points (like Washington or Gafford), not when Avdija is considered the best prospect on an awful team with no urgency to trade that player.

Without some kind of adjustment on offense nothing the Mavs will do in free agency is going to matter. Luka carried the team further than Harden ever did but at some point you run into a team with multiple great perimeter defenders that will limit the efficiency of iso scorers. Just adding more guys that play the same style isn't going to change that.

In a perfect scenario I would prefer a guy that could do all of that and also shoot from 40% from three but the Mavs aren't in a position to go after bigger names. I think Avdija is already a reach. Probably not within the Mavs price range.

[alancrispim]

I agree. That's why I think we should pursue a trade for Lebron or Mikal Bridges because they both deliver everything Dallas needs at a high level (playmaking, defense, 3 points).

If these two are not possible, we should look for others in the same style.