MAVS NEWS:

[Chicagojk]

Nico gave the interview to the media too early.  If he would have waited three games he could have walked into the interview with his pimp walk.  After 3 wins,  Hardaway showing up in the season, a little Hardy sprinkle, and his two way guy (Dorsey) dropping 47 tonight.

We just won't talk about Bruno or McGee.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Boo3eEzBUjc

[DanSchwartzgan]

With a bigger sample size the next few weeks should tell us where the team is headed. Right now record and team metrics don´t match. 14-9 expected win/loss. 6th in SRS.
Mavs lead the league in clutch games (16) and have a 8-8 record in those.
They only have one double digit loss (-11 vs Boston). Compared to four double digit wins (+43 vs Grizzlies, +28 vs Denver, +21 vs Knicks, +19 vs Suns).

The Mavs blew a couple of leads. Struggled to turn 4th quarter leads into wins. Western conference is still super close so they have enough time to bounce back. I guess the big takeaway is that the margin of error is razor-thin. If the Mavs continue to drop games against teams like Houston or Orlando they are in trouble.

They say SRS, Net Rating and Expected W/L (all 7th this morning) are a better predictor of playoff success than actual record.  7th best record (instead of tied for 7th in the west) is about what I expected when the season began.  Of course, I alternate where I think we are based on what happened in the most recent game.  The emotional swings have been huge.

Still, it is pretty easy to imagine how 14-10 might have happened instead of 13-11.  It is only two games and we've had so many come-from-ahead losses and bone headed nights against terrible teams.  It feels like we are settling in on a rotation and maybe with less experimentation we'll get a more consistent outcome.

[sefant]

Mavs have the best record in the west vs. .500 teams at 11-6 

&

the worst record in the west vs. below .500 teams at 2-5 


Only Celtics are better vs. .500 teams and only the Magic are worse vs. below .500 teams

[Scott41theMavs]

Before we give the FO too many passes due to the recent successes, don't forget we functionally traded KP and JB (two near all-stars this year) for SD (6th man) and DB (most expensive bench-warmer ever). Seems our talent evaluation needs to improve.

[cow]

Before we give the FO too many passes due to the recent successes, don't forget we functionally traded KP and JB (two near all-stars this year) for SD (6th man) and DB (most expensive bench-warmer ever). Seems our talent evaluation needs to improve.

+ a SRP.  

This team also seems to always let the other shoe drop.  Great wins and then confounding loses.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

+ a SRP.  

This team also seems to always let the other shoe drop.  Great wins and then confounding loses.

Is this a statement about the Kidd era Mavs or just this season?

[cow]

Is this a statement about the Kidd era Mavs or just this season?

This season mostly.  We have some really, really bad loses.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

This season mostly.  We have some really, really bad loses.

Agreed, just wanted to point out we were in a worse spot last year and really turned it around. Seeing the shot making and defensive effort change over the last week makes me feel this team can do the same.

This team has the best record in the league against over .500 teams and the worst record against teams under .500 which is baffling but something you wouldn’t expect to hold up all year.

[The Jom]

I think I’ve seen wild swings in the way games are officiated. Last night’s whistles running Josh Green off the court among them. Creates some ridiculous unpredictability in the win and loss columns. 

Also seems the across-the-board increase in 3-point attempts per game has to add significant volatility. Giving up leads and winning/losing unexpectedly will naturally follow. That’s just math. 

Most interesting to me is how these trends are likely to affect the typical 7 game series. After all, that’s where the honey is. My guess is it increases the Mavs’ chances of winning any given series but lowers their chances of winning them all. I may have that backasswards though. Math is hard.

[Jym]

I think I’ve seen wild swings in the way games are officiated. Last night’s whistles running Josh Green off the court among them. Creates some ridiculous unpredictability in the win and loss columns. 

Also seems the across-the-board increase in 3-point attempts per game has to add significant volatility. Giving up leads and winning/losing unexpectedly will naturally follow. That’s just math. 

Most interesting to me is how these trends are likely to affect the typical 7 game series. After all, that’s where the honey is. My guess is it increases the Mavs’ chances of winning any given series but lowers their chances of winning them all. I may have that backasswards though. Math is hard.

also there's no West coast team that's all that terrifying
it really will come down to whether our guys make the open shots or brick them. And I guess also a question of what Luka we get at point. Already showing signs of fatigue here and there and it's only December.

[ThisIStheYear]

Before we give the FO too many passes due to the recent successes, don't forget we functionally traded KP and JB (two near all-stars this year) for SD (6th man) and DB (most expensive bench-warmer ever). Seems our talent evaluation needs to improve.

All true, but if Hardy turns out to be a hit, and he could be a big one, none of that will even matter. Given that, I’m kind of surprised Kidd isn’t trying harder to carve out a couple of six minute stints per game for him.

[Chicagojk]

All true, but if Hardy turns out to be a hit, and he could be a big one, none of that will even matter. Given that, I’m kind of surprised Kidd isn’t trying harder to carve out a couple of six minute stints per game for him.

I think they will come but it may be tight.  I expect he may get some run either Friday or Saturday.   Mavs play the Bucks at 10 ET on Friday and then play the Bulls the next night at 8 ET.   The Bulls play tonight and then are off until Saturday.   I wonder if we sit Luka one of those games?

[IamDougieFresh]

Book it.

[dirkfansince1998]

Book it.

Chicago has been pretty bad this season. Dangerous game for the Mavs.

[KillerLeft]

Book it.

That sucks, because I'm going to the OKC game.

[IamDougieFresh]

Max pain is a great win vs the Bucks, winning vs the Bulls causing people to think they are getting their shit together, then a terrible loss to the Thunder. I don't make the rules.

[SleepingHero]

If the Spurs want 2 lightly protected FRP for Poeltl, I wonder how many FRP would they want for Keldon Johnson?

I'd love him on the Mavs.  Don't think they'd want to trade him anyhow, but it's interesting thought given that they're asking 2 FRP for a guy who isn't even close to an all-star. What would they want for a guy averaging 20ppg!?

[mvossman]

If the Spurs want 2 lightly protected FRP for Poeltl, I wonder how many FRP would they want for Keldon Johnson?

I'd love him on the Mavs.  Don't think they'd want to trade him anyhow, but it's interesting thought given that they're asking 2 FRP for a guy who isn't even close to an all-star. What would they want for a guy averaging 20ppg!?

Murray was averaging 21/8/9 when they traded him, and they got 3 firsts?  Honestly that is the kind of player (young, two-way wing) and trade I would be targeting for the Mavs next offseason.

[ItsGoTime]

Murray was averaging 21/8/9 when they traded him, and they got 3 firsts?  Honestly that is the kind of player (young, two-way wing) and trade I would be targeting for the Mavs next offseason.

Murray is not young.

[omahen]

I don't think anyone will pay 2 FRP for a non shooting center on an expiring contract. It seems both SA and Poeltl want to stay "married", so the price is outrageous.