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02-15-2022, 10:22 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2022, 10:24 AM by vfromlmf.)
Adding to my notes above ... the big rotation will now likely be DFS-Powell-Kleber-Bertans.
DFS is a 36-38 minute per game guy in the playoffs so you're talking about splitting 60 minutes between Powell, Kleber and Bertans. They can't all get 20-25 minutes so those guys will rotate situationally.
My guess is Powell gets the most burn on most nights, but I don't see him exceeding 24-28 minutes. My best guess is 21-28 for Powell, depending on matchups.
Stating the obvious here but between Kleber and Bertans, Maxi is the better defender but Davis is the better floor spacer, so again you'll see Kidd use them situationally, based on matchups. It may be hard for either player to average more than 20 minutes, but either could play more than 20 minutes on any given night.
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(02-15-2022, 01:13 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Let´s hope they did not intend to trade Porzingis as early as last summer, cause that would only make the decision to not pursue Markkanen even dumber. Now they got the sh*tty Markkanen for the same 16M per year instead.
My preference would have been Holmes, who was not restricted, would have only costed 12 mil, and we are currently crazy shallow at the center position, but the sentiment is the same.
I think Kam was right that they did have this plan all along. In fact I wonder if Cuban told Rick this after Donnie left, and thats when Rick decided he didn't want to mess with trying to showcase KP for 2/3 a season and decided it was time to bail.
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(02-15-2022, 10:27 AM)mvossman Wrote: I think Kam was right that they did have this plan all along. In fact I wonder if Cuban told Rick this after Donnie left, and thats when Rick decided he didn't want to mess with trying to showcase KP for 2/3 a season and decided it was time to bail.
I don't know about any dot connecting with Carlisle - good theory, but not what I'm commenting on.
I've heard in 2-3 places (mostly local radio) over the past 48 hours that KP straight up asked for a trade after last season and the speculation now is that they sat him down and asked him to give it one more try in the new system. The transparently communicated idea to Porzingis being "if it works, great, if not, maybe we'll at least have some options about where to send you." Again, this is some fact mixed with some speculation and then paraphrased by me, but I feel like it makes some sense.
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(02-15-2022, 09:48 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: Been away from the board for a while so haven't had the opportunity to provide my perspective on this trade. Count me among the cautiously optimistic. Seems the general consensus around this deal is that the Mavs made the trade to free themselves from KP's contract and open up flexibility to make additional moves in the future. Fair point. But I like this move from a pure basketball standpoint, especially for playoff basketball and especially for Luka.
We all know good defensive teams switch in the playoffs and the two recent Clips games offer a template for how to beat the Mavs in a seven game series. We saw it last year too. It's all about exploiting the Mavs personnel by switching on Luka and forcing him to be a scorer. Luka can (and likely will) go off for 40+ but Brunson was only one other guy on the roster who could consistently attack a switching defense, but he struggles with length.
I'll go on record that Dinwiddie will play with Luka and Brunson when teams try to force Luka into being a scorer. Dinwiddie can attack defenses on his own and that will help keep Luka fresh for the fourth quarter. My best guess is he'll settle into a 25-32 minute role, essentially taking KP's 15 shots and scoring 16-18 points per game. If he can do it, this trade is a big win.
Of course, we also know good defensive teams tend to blitz Luka with double teams in the fourth quarter. When that happens you need shooters to space the floor and a secondary initiator to take the pressure off no 77. Dinwiddie has the potential to add value against blitzing defenses but Bertans adds value as an elite floor spacer.
Bertans is a four-five in the modern NBA but in Washington he was often on the floor with two other bigs. Not ideal. I'll go on record that Bertans will never play with two bigs in Dallas and Chriss is the guy most likely to loose his spot in a playoff rotation. Bertans will come close to matching Kleber's 20-25 min but will outscore him many nights, taking 6-8 of THJ's shots and boosting the second unit 8-11 points per game. If he can do it this trade is a home run.
My biggest issue with this line of thinking is what we are going to do with Bertans on the defensive end. Kidd's defense seems to be predicated on bigs having quick feet. Bertans makes KP look like Draymond in that regard, and he does not have the rim protection to make up for lack of lateral quickness.
Your right that he wont be playing with two bigs. We only have two playable bigs on the team (with maybe a few minutes from Chriss). I have a hard time thinking of Bertans as a big. He gets two rebounds a game.
The Bertans hope seems a little too much like the JRich hope. The difference being that Bertans has been much worse this year than JRich was in Philly. I think folks need to temper their hopes on this guy. If he gets us 15 minutes of useful play a game it will be a huge upgrade over what he is doing now.
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(02-15-2022, 10:36 AM)mvossman Wrote: I have a hard time thinking of Bertans as a big. He gets two rebounds a game.
He may defensive rebound better than that in Dallas but Dallas is already a fantastic defensive rebounding team. Obviously, he'll never offensive rebound because he spaces 30 feet from the basket, but I don't see rebounding being a huge problem.
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02-15-2022, 11:19 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2022, 11:21 AM by mvossman.)
(02-15-2022, 10:22 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: Adding to my notes above ... the big rotation will now likely be DFS-Powell-Kleber-Bertans.
DFS is a 36-38 minute per game guy in the playoffs so you're talking about splitting 60 minutes between Powell, Kleber and Bertans. They can't all get 20-25 minutes so those guys will rotate situationally.
My guess is Powell gets the most burn on most nights, but I don't see him exceeding 24-28 minutes. My best guess is 21-28 for Powell, depending on matchups.
Stating the obvious here but between Kleber and Bertans, Maxi is the better defender but Davis is the better floor spacer, so again you'll see Kidd use them situationally, based on matchups. It may be hard for either player to average more than 20 minutes, but either could play more than 20 minutes on any given night.
I think the problem with this is that we need somebody that can be at least a small ball center. There is no way you can play significant minutes with DFS or Bertans as your center. So Powell and Maxi will be splitting the center minutes. That means both will be getting roughly 24 minutes at the min. I agree with DFS minutes, which leaves 10-12 left for Bertans.
My expectation is the most likely minutes distribution for Bertans in playoffs is DNP. However, if he does completely revive his career in the next 20 plus games and we feel like we need him on the court, then he will get more PF minutes and DFS will slide down to the 3 some. In the event that Bertans is unplayable in the playoffs, you are looking at Powell/DFS/Maxi taking all of the 4/5 minutes.
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(02-15-2022, 11:19 AM)mvossman Wrote: My expectation is the most likely minutes distribution for Bertans in playoffs is DNP. However, if he does completely revive his career in the next 20 plus games and we feel like we need him on the court, then he will get more PF minutes and DFS will slide down to the 3 some. In the event that Bertans is unplayable in the playoffs, you are looking at Powell/DFS/Maxi taking all of the 4/5 minutes.
My prediction is that he will play in every playoff game (if healthy) but that many people here will wish he was getting DNP'd.
If he's not playing, you can bet Chriss will be playing a little, if just to avoid the specific scenario you point out above. They might try to keep it down to those three players (Powell/Kleber/DFS) but at least one of Bertans, Chriss or (*gulp*) Boban will get a little time in every game, I'd think. I'm sure the Mavs hope it's Bertans.
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If we are talking about front court minutes we shouldn´t forget that based on the defensive matchup Luka is going to get some PF minutes. I wouldn´t be suprised if the Mavs run some of the 2-3 guard lineups that worked really well earlier in the season. Also expect them to at least give Brunson/Dinwinddie/Doncic lineups a chance.
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(02-15-2022, 10:36 AM)mvossman Wrote: Kidd's defense seems to be predicated on bigs having quick feet. Bertans makes KP look like Draymond in that regard
I disagree with KP having better defensive feet than DB. I think they are equivalent from my observations, FWIW.
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(02-15-2022, 11:19 AM)mvossman Wrote: I think the problem with this is that we need somebody that can be at least a small ball center. There is no way you can play significant minutes with DFS or Bertans as your center. So Powell and Maxi will be splitting the center minutes. That means both will be getting roughly 24 minutes at the min. I agree with DFS minutes, which leaves 10-12 left for Bertans.
My expectation is the most likely minutes distribution for Bertans in playoffs is DNP. However, if he does completely revive his career in the next 20 plus games and we feel like we need him on the court, then he will get more PF minutes and DFS will slide down to the 3 some. In the event that Bertans is unplayable in the playoffs, you are looking at Powell/DFS/Maxi taking all of the 4/5 minutes.
Luka 42 / Dinwiddie 6
Brunson 36 / Dinwiddie 12
Bullock 40 / DFS 8
DFS 32 / Bertans 16
Powell 24 / Kleber 24
In the playoffs, Luka will play 40+ minutes, DFS and Bullock 38-42 minutes. Looking at the last two games against the clippers:
Luka 40 & 39 min
Bullock 37 & 40 min
DFS 41 & 39 min
Brunson 37 & 39 min
Powell 21 & 26 min
Kleber 27 & 22 min
That leaves 18-26 min for Dinwiddie (or others) and 16-24 min for Bertans (or others).
Last year against the Clippers, Luka played 40.2 mpg, THJ 37.4 mpg and DFS 38.7 mpg
If Bertans gets DNP in the playoffs then you're asking Kleber and Powell to play 32+ minutes. In the playoffs, Kleber played 26.8 mpg last year and DP 7.5 mpg. Or you're counting on Chriss to play the 16-24 minutes?
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I think Maxi in playoffs will get huge minutes. His load is going to increase a lot. Maxi is the only player able to protect the rim and mobile to stay on the perimeter. We saw last game that Powell cant hold inside against Zubac. Once the playoff teams start playing their mobile bigs against Powell, Bertans, Chriss. Our only way out will be Maxi in the lineup. Essentially it will be Maxi that will get KPs minutes. He might get the most minutes on the team after Luka. The trade increases our depth. But it puts a huge pressure on Maxi to play big minutes. Otherwise out paint/rim is not going to hold.
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02-15-2022, 01:35 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2022, 01:43 PM by vfromlmf.)
The best way to defend Zubac isn't to play a big defensive center simply because the Mavs don't employ one other than Boban and we saw that movie last year. The best way to defend Zubac is for Luka to play him off the floor. That will happen if they meet in the playoffs this year, just like it did last year. The problem for Dallas was that they couldn't play small with an immobile KP at center and trapping Luka in the fourth.
Here's the bottom line: Dinwiddie and Bertans better equip Dallas to play small when Luka plays the opposing center off the floor. Move, counter-move.
Don't forget, Dallas was in control of the series until the Clippers went small but Dallas had no answer. Now they do.
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(02-15-2022, 01:35 PM)vfromlmf Wrote: The best way to defend Zubac isn't to play a big defensive center simply because the Mavs don't employ one other than Boban and we saw that movie last year. The best way to defend Zubac is for Luka to play him off the floor. That will happen if they meet in the playoffs this year, just like it did last year. The problem for Dallas was that they couldn't play small with an immobile KP at center and trapping Luka in the fourth.
Here's the bottom line: Dinwiddie and Bertans better equip Dallas to play small when Luka plays the opposing center off the floor. Move, counter-move.
Don't forget, Dallas was in control of the series until the Clippers went small but Dallas had no answer. Now they do.
With Zubac/Adams OK, I trust Luka can play them off as he displayed a couple of times, but Luka is not playing Gobert/Ayton/Davis off the floor, so we better pray to god we can find an answer that doesn't rely on Luka going super sayan.
We just paid a whole lot of money to a guy that went 9-29 (31%) on FG and 3-20 (15%) 3-pt% in both our win or go home elimination games last couple of playoffs. SMH
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(02-15-2022, 03:22 PM)HAguiar95 Wrote: With Zubac/Adams OK, I trust Luka can play them off as he displayed a couple of times, but Luka is not playing Gobert/Ayton/Davis off the floor, so we better pray to god we can find an answer that doesn't rely on Luka going super sayan.
I 100% believe Luka can play any center off the floor. The only one I'm iffy on is Ayton because the Suns have enough good long wings that should make up for Ayton's deficiencies (and he's the best perimeter defender of the bunch).
Gobert was played off the floor by Harden. Davis couldn't stay in front of CP3 last summer, let alone Booker.
Luka, when locked in and in shape, is probably the most lethal offensive player in the league. Not only can he score 40+points on anyone, he can dish out 15 assists as well.
All I'm saying is if Luka could dominate Kawhi+PG, two of the most staunch wing defenders the NBA has to offer, then he can dominate any team. The Clips decided to triple team him with a 4th lurking on the sides. It was Luka's teammates failing him. THJ's shot disappeared. KP was nowhere to be found. Maxi couldn't buy a bucket. Brunson was swallowed up. Burke was non-existent. WCS was in lala land. Literally the only 2 guys that showed up were DFS and Boban, and even then they had their issues.
Despite that it still went to 7 games. That's the talent of Luka.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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02-15-2022, 04:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2022, 04:22 PM by burekemde.)
(02-15-2022, 01:35 PM)vfromlmf Wrote: The best way to defend Zubac isn't to play a big defensive center simply because the Mavs don't employ one other than Boban and we saw that movie last year. The best way to defend Zubac is for Luka to play him off the floor. That will happen if they meet in the playoffs this year, just like it did last year. The problem for Dallas was that they couldn't play small with an immobile KP at center and trapping Luka in the fourth.
Here's the bottom line: Dinwiddie and Bertans better equip Dallas to play small when Luka plays the opposing center off the floor. Move, counter-move.
Don't forget, Dallas was in control of the series until the Clippers went small but Dallas had no answer. Now they do.
If we play like that, its going to be Luka vs the Center. All our other 4 players will freeze and not get in game rhythm at all.
Last game Clippers kept letting Zubac vs. Luka matchup. They even started with it, not even waiting for the switch to happen. It was suprising to see. Luka is destorying Zubac. But you also have to account on the other end that Zubac is destroying Powell and DFS inside.
Even if Luka wins the matchup with the center, which he does so extremely well. I still prefer diversity on the offense. What I wanted to see last game is that if they place Zubac on Luka, I still wish to see them swtich Luka to another defender. It may sound counter-intuitive (as you would think Luka center matchup is the dream), but the pick and roll is important game for getting Powell involved and keeping all cards on the offense open. If we just play Luka vs. Center, not pick and roll, just iso offense, it gets too predictable. What if Lukas 3 point shot is off one game? We lose the game then. Every great playoff team will explore that early on if Lukas 3 point is on or not, if we play like that.
I say dont look too much into who is the matchup. Run the pick and roll. In the case of last game, Zubac was on Luka, while Powell was covered by Batum. I say do the pick and roll instead of playing Luka iso offense. There is no way Zubac can fight through the screen and cover Luka. So exploit the matchup like that. And Powell will still destroy Batum as the roll man even more than if Zubac was on him.
On defense, it is clear that we cant be a good defense without a great rim protector. The playoff offenses will destroy us, there is no way we go far. The key is either KP or Maxi. KP is gone, thus our only hope is playing Maxi big minutes.
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02-15-2022, 04:25 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2022, 04:35 PM by vfromlmf.)
(02-15-2022, 04:18 PM)burekemde Wrote: Even if Luka wins the matchup with the center, which he does so extremely well. I still wont diversity on the offense.
That is EXACTLY why this team traded KP for Dinwiddie and Bertans.
Well, that and flexibility.
But my point is that teams can force Luka into being a scorer because when teams switch the Mavs didn't have anyone else who could consistently exploit their matchup and win. Maybe this year's version of Brunson can, but he couldn't win often enough against the Clippers length last year and I doubt he's grown an inch since high school.
Dinwiddie gives this team another player who can win one-on-one when team's switch.
Bertans gives this team a movement shooter who can cause certain problems that our stationary shooters like DFS and Kleber can't.
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I think the point to having 3 ball handlers on the floor is to have it coming from different positions. Having 3 pgs do it is a poor man’s version of ball handling on the court. Mann and Brooks are role player examples of this. We need more of those types, not more pgs. I hope they keep that in mind when building the roster back up.
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(02-15-2022, 04:31 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I think the point to having 3 ball handlers on the floor is to have it coming from different positions. Having 3 pgs do it is a poor man’s version of ball handling on the court. Mann and Brooks are role player examples of this. We need more of those types, not more pgs. I hope they keep that in mind when building the roster back up.
Totally agree.
But, at least these three PG’s are three different sizes. That assuages this valid worry somewhat, imho.
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Totally right. We're talking about role players here, not superstars who will play 40 minutes. These guys are weapons to replace a guy KP who couldn't be counted on.
If the Clippers want to play Zubac and switch everything let's see them try to defend three scorers - Luka, Brunson, Dinwiddie - with Bertans and one of kleber, DFS or Bullock spacing the floor.
Bertans needs to be guarded from 35 feet!
So you have Luke getting doubled and another defender a full first down away from the bucket setting up the Mavs with a 3 v 2 advantage with two downhill scorers and a three point shooter!? Give me a break. THAT my friends will diversify the offense and dictate the style of play. Move-countermove. Mavs win.
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02-15-2022, 04:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2022, 04:39 PM by HoosierDaddyKid.)
(02-15-2022, 10:59 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: He may defensive rebound better than that in Dallas but Dallas is already a fantastic defensive rebounding team. Obviously, he'll never offensive rebound because he spaces 30 feet from the basket, but I don't see rebounding being a huge problem.
Dallas is 23rd in rebounding. Not that great.
https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/team/_/ta...s/dir/desc
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