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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Chicagojk - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 08:59 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: As for the draft, however, the thing that I most often read complaints about around here isn't the misses on players picked (frustrating, but every team has those), it's the blatant and clear philosophy the Mavs have always signaled that they don't value the draft as a means of improving, especially in situations where they feel they have their star and are already a playoff team. Will that change with the new staff, or is that philosophy held at the TOP of the organization? That's the question, imho.
This is big for me. I always thought they were either lazy or disinterested. Finding values late in the draft or UDFA, should be one of the best parts of the job. Heck, look at the mileage they got out of Maxi, DFS and Brunson. The Mavs deserve credit for those, but at the same time they went years where they appear to not put in the work.
This was also my frustration with the G-league team and summer league teams. Houston every year would take gambles on guys- who had a few traits that might make them succeed. Most of them went no where, but at least they were turning over every rock. We had a 26 year old G-League guy the season before when OKC had Moses Brown who was playing on our Legends team. That may be very small, but it always bugged me.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:07 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: This is big for me. I always thought they were either lazy or disinterested.
Yeah. Maybe this was a Donnie thing, or maybe it's a Cuban thing. Maybe BOTH.
We'll see what this new combination of thinkers does.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - HoosierDaddyKid - 06-29-2021
(06-28-2021, 06:48 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: My big draft hot take a few years ago was that Hartenstein would be better than Lauri.
I may wind up being right after being so so wrong.
I really like what he showed last year
They're games are totally different. I don't think Hartenstein is better at all, as he's just a backup. He's a old school big that doesn't stretch the floor. Markanan just needs to be coached up, he has the talent.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 08:59 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: the Mavs have always signaled that they don't value the draft as a means of improving, especially in situations where they feel they have their star and are already a playoff team. Will that change with the new staff, or is that philosophy held at the TOP of the organization? That's the question, imho.
This is the question indeed.
Over the years the Mavs have clearly valued the draft a few times (Luka and Devin are the most obvious examples), but in general have really stunk it up while most of those they have drafted have gone undeveloped (either because of poor talent scouting or coaching development).
I think Cuban rightfully values finding "stars" in this league. I think he theoretically "plays the odds" right in that by realizing that the ODDS are in your favor by trying to sign or trade for a star rather than draft and develop. HOWEVER, the odds were actually AGAINST him because of the inability to sign or trade for a star. Ironically he ended up getting his next star through the DRAFT (Luka) and missing on the free agent signings (so many names here) and trade (KP).
So with the new staff I think the odds of signing and trading for a star have probably increased. But I hope he has learned his lesson in all this and begins to see the draft as a LEGIT way to find stars, even if the odds are low.
MY GUESS:
I think he HAS learned his lesson. Why? Because of the 2020 draft. When I look at the draft picks of the Mavs I feel like the Mavs took the highest ceiling player at their draft position EACH time. I think Green had the highest ceiling of all those drafted #18 and below. I think Tyrell for those #31 and below. I think Bey for those #36 and below. Those were "boom or bust" type picks. Swinging big and not settling for the more known commodities. I think Voulgaris was behind this change of philosophy for Cuban. Many are complaining, but at least they were USING the draft and TRYING to do something. I still think Green is a legit starter in this league and will be shocked if he doesn't figure it out and I love the flashes I have seen from Tyrell and Bey. I still think the 2020 draft could be a huge success when the dust settles.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 07:42 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think that's one of the big questions here. Patient or Proactive?
If simply patient, the criticism will be "hell, Donnie could have sat on his hands. In fact, he was good at it. Why did we bring the Nike recruiter here again?". I can also see Cuban wanting to make a big splash to show the issue with all of the toxicity was the guys who left, and it is fixed now.
IF you go with Team Patient, do you spend big money on guys like DeRozan, Conley and Lowry? Or, take a shot at some younger guys who could surprise to the upside and provide trade value in a year or two?
In my opinion it is obvious Mavs are not Team Patient. I expect them at least try aggresive moves with the probably result being quite shortsighted one. It is possible though that they just fail and to the outsiders it would look like Mavs are Team Patient. I guess that was what happened to Donnie. He tried making moves but failed and Mavs tried to save face by claiming "we love our boys". I think it is obvious value of our assets is very low due to both low number of available assets and low quality of what we have. Few picks, no high upside young players, even no surefire starters for contenders. I wonder how can Mavs try to spin it if they fail at making moves again. Forgetting some dream come true Dame trades and similar A+ offseasons and some great KP trades, best case Mavs are able to do is add two quality starters this offseason that would fit well on team. Meh offseason is adding a meh star like DeRozan for most of cap space leaving limited possibility to cover some other of the many holes. I am affraid this will be most likely scenario.
My Team Patient approach with Luka would be in trying to build a flexible situation to be full time contender ready in 2024 while trying to gradualy improve results while Luka is gathering experience. Our assets are low but we are likely only two years removed before having full set of picks available. In the meantime we will have 2022 FRP to use to improve the squad. Below are my steps for contender building using following assumptions:
- assuming star doesn't demand a trade to Dallas
- assuming KP-Luka relationship is not broken beyond repair
- assuming KP can't be traded due to low value and new coach sees how to make it work (I actually think this is what Mavs want)
Steps in 2021:
1. Sign best player available into cap space. My list of BPA starting with best: Collins, Lowry, Conley, DeRozan, Ball. Collins and Ball on 4 year deals, the elderly citizens on three year deals.
2. Trade Brunson and Powell for a starter quality player (or cap space that allows us to bring that player). I don't think there is a valuable role for Brunson long term. I don't see him as a starter, he is too good to be just a back up behind Luka. I think his role can be more easily replaced than getting the starter with limited resources available. His value is high right now. Powell contract I think was a mistake and again I think we can get his level of production far more easily than a starter. If player under 1 is Collins you bring in a guard, if player under 1 is not Collins, you bring in PF. Possibilities are way to broad with way too many unknowns to narrow down on a specific target. If player under 1 is young, this should be experienced guy.
3. Establish which of these year rookies are long term keepers and create a role and minutes on the team for them. Green 4th guard, Terry third PG, Bey third PF, Hinton 5th guard/wing. This means back ups are brought in accordingly, so that youngsters I decide to keep get regular minutes (Green) or at least nice set of minutes in specific games (Terry, Bey, Hinton). Than it is up to them to show what they got.
4. Don't waste any assets, even if JRich opts in. If he does, number 2 can be modified with him in the picture. I wouldn't be affraid to run it back with JRich after a healthy offseason. Players under 1 should be obtainable with THJ+WCS cap space (perhaps with some minor salary dump like Burke or something similar).
5. Extend DFS
6. Sign bench wing shooter for rMLE and deep bench for BaE.
Step in 2022:
1. Use pick to upgrade rotation quality or draft someone if you really like him (but give him minutes)
2. Decide about Maxi - he will be 31. Give him a year or two more, trade him, whatever. Minor issue.
Step in 2023:
1. If everything goes according to the plan the pick will be conveyed to NY so immediately after draft the realistic star hunting begins. If number 1 in 2021 was an elderly statement Mavs have his, KP and likely some smaller salaries expiring. If guy was Collins and Ball, we have a player entering his prime with only one year left. All tradeable deals assuming Collins or Ball at least stay on current level. From draft to TDL Mavs can aggresively hunt a trade for disgruntled star.
2. Full time tampering (starting even earlier) for star(s) FA 2024 - we can have space for two of them. This time do it right
3. If 1 and 2 fail, resign the team and wait for opportunity with full arsenal of assets ready.
I think this approach will lead to better team in the short term and realistic contender in 2024. Of course if opportunity occurs I jump and take it.
Team Impatient is wasting assets to dump players on pennies on the dollar or trading for marginally better players.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - HanspardsShowerVoice - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:11 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Yeah. Maybe this was a Donnie thing, or maybe it's a Cuban thing. Maybe BOTH.
We'll see what this new combination of thinkers does.
Yeah, I think it's likely an issue of both. Mark has too many coals in the fire to properly oversee a developmental league where only a small percentage of the players will ever be significant NBA contributors. Donnie didn't have the attention to detail and/or organizational skills. True to Cuban's entreprenuerial roots, I would liken it to the Mavs a small start up that was run out of the CEOs garage that has now grown into a company of several hundred employees that requires a human resources department, middle managers, a sales team etc. Now it's a question of getting up to scale.
My thing is that the Plan Powder/Chase Stars vs. Draft and Develop Internally is it should have never been a binary choice of one or the other. Morey and the Rockets never had a problem doing both. But things like scouting late round picks and player development have such a poor payoff to time invested ratio, the MBT didn't have the bandwidth for it and just kinda ignored it. I'm hoping better organizational managers means we can do both.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:19 AM)Kammrath Wrote: MY GUESS:
I think he HAS learned his lesson. Why? Because of the 2020 draft. When I look at the draft picks of the Mavs I feel like the Mavs took the highest ceiling player at their draft position EACH time. I think Green had the highest ceiling of all those drafted #18 and below. I think Tyrell for those #31 and below. I think Bey for those #36 and below. Those were "boom or bust" type picks. Swinging big and not settling for the more known commodities. I think Voulgaris was behind this change of philosophy for Cuban. Many are complaining, but at least they were USING the draft and TRYING to do something. I still think Green is a legit starter in this league and will be shocked if he doesn't figure it out and I love the flashes I have seen from Tyrell and Bey. I still think the 2020 draft could be a huge success when the dust settles.
I like the logic here, and I think you might be onto something regarding the philosophy of HOW picks are used.
I do NOT know that it's evidence that the organization has started to value the act of keeping using picks (to draft players) more highly, however. This might've changed, too, but I don't think we have seen enough to know yet.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dynamicalVoid - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:19 AM)Kammrath Wrote: This is the question indeed.
Over the years the Mavs have clearly valued the draft a few times (Luka and Devin are the most obvious examples), but in general have really stunk it up while most of those they have drafted have gone undeveloped (either because of poor talent scouting or coaching development).
I think Cuban rightfully values finding "stars" in this league. I think he theoretically "plays the odds" right in that by realizing that the ODDS are in your favor by trying to sign or trade for a star rather than draft and develop. HOWEVER, the odds were actually AGAINST him because of the inability to sign or trade for a star. Ironically he ended up getting his next star through the DRAFT (Luka) and missing on the free agent signings (so many names here) and trade (KP).
So with the new staff I think the odds of signing and trading for a star have probably increased. But I hope he has learned his lesson in all this and begins to see the draft as a LEGIT way to find stars, even if the odds are low.
MY GUESS:
I think he HAS learned his lesson. Why? Because of the 2020 draft. When I look at the draft picks of the Mavs I feel like the Mavs took the highest ceiling player at their draft position EACH time. I think Green had the highest ceiling of all those drafted #18 and below. I think Tyrell for those #31 and below. I think Bey for those #36 and below. Those were "boom or bust" type picks. Swinging big and not settling for the more known commodities. I think Voulgaris was behind this change of philosophy for Cuban. Many are complaining, but at least they were USING the draft and TRYING to do something. I still think Green is a legit starter in this league and will be shocked if he doesn't figure it out and I love the flashes I have seen from Tyrell and Bey. I still think the 2020 draft could be a huge success when the dust settles.
If what I read on here is true...the Mavs were going for defense this past year. They acquired James Johnson and Josh Richardson(gave up an offensive weapon for the hopes of a defensive weapon) for their defense. If you think those were bad trades is a different story...the main point is that it seems they were looking at defense.
We can argue about S. Bey or Desmond Bane(or Isiah Quickley, Tyrese Maxey, Theo Maledon)...but it seems like defense was the focus. Green seems to excel at defense. So...its hard for me to fault Mark or Voulgaris here.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 07:42 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think that's one of the big questions here. Patient or Proactive?
If simply patient, the criticism will be "hell, Donnie could have sat on his hands. In fact, he was good at it. Why did we bring the Nike recruiter here again?". I can also see Cuban wanting to make a big splash to show the issue with all of the toxicity was the guys who left, and it is fixed now.
IF you go with Team Patient, do you spend big money on guys like DeRozan, Conley and Lowry? Or, take a shot at some younger guys who could surprise to the upside and provide trade value in a year or two?
I have several thoughts on this:
Dame just signed a contract for 4 years. It does not matter if he wants out. Portland could wait 3 years (see AD) before trading him.
If Portland decides to trade him, it does not matter if he wants to be traded to Dallas. Kawhi wanted to go to LA and only had one year left. Toronto still traded for him, and there was question whether he would even show up. We all know how that turned out. Teams will give everything they have for 4 years of Dame. Asking to go to Dallas will provide us little to no advantage.
If we really do want the 23 pick, I have a hard time believing New York does not pull that trigger for Brunson. That is a value trade for them and they clearly like him.
Team "patient" is not the route they want to take. But they don't have to burn every future asset either. They just brought in a new regime specifically to attract free agents. They have potentially 34 mil in cap, perhaps the last time they will have cap space for years due to the Luka extension. I think the goal is to get a big name "star" free agent this year.
From my vantage point, everything points to DeRozan. He is a big name respected "star". He is unlikely to stay on his current team. He does not have any huge rumors going somewhere else. He is young enough that production may not drop off for a couple of years (especially given his style of play). He fits Cuban's recent statements as someone that can provide Luka "help". He has ties to Nico. He gives the Mavs their three "stars" with Luka/DeRozan/KP.
The real question to me is if we bring in DeRozan, how do we do it? Do we simply sign him straight up? In that case THJ is gone (which is probably less of a concern to the new regime). You would have roughly the MLE in cap to spend on a desperately needed 3&D guy (maybe Green?). Another option would be to S&T for a package that the Spurs would prefer to cap space. Maybe JRich/Powell/Brunson? Powell and Brunson are other guys the new regime might be more willing to let go (they also seem like Spurs kind of guys). That trade allows you to keep THJ and spend the MLE, or have roughly 22 mil in cap space.
Another possibility is if they feel they need to move on from KP, an S&T for DeRozan could make a lot of sense. At that point they have the cap to go get Holmes and maybe Norman Powell (who would be perfect as the floor spacing point of attack defender and might be ready to get out of the shit show in Portland).
I'm actually not a fan of DeRozan the player or the fit with Luka, but I am resigned to this being by far the most likely off season move. I don't think that team can truly contend due to lack of defense, but they are probably more likely to advance in playoffs, and potentially more attractive to other players in the future.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:30 AM)mvossman Wrote: I'm actually not a fan of DeRozan the player or the fit with Luka, but I am resigned to this being by far the most likely off season move. I don't think that team can truly contend due to lack of defense, but they are probably more likely to advance in playoffs, and potentially more attractive to other players in the future.
Totally agree with this being the most likely scenario and outcome. Also on the Brunson/Powell, as you can see in my previous post
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dirkfansince1998 - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:26 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: I like the logic here, and I think you might be onto something regarding the philosophy of HOW picks are used.
I do NOT know that it's evidence that the organization has started to value the act of keeping using picks (to draft players) more highly, however. This might've changed, too, but I don't think we have seen enough to know yet.
Lack of future picks might have played a role as well. As of now they won´t have any picks this summer. No picks in 2023. 2020 draft was a good opportunity to pick up some youth for cheap.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:34 AM)omahen Wrote: Totally agree with this being the most likely scenario and outcome. Also on the Brunson/Powell, as you can see in my previous post
Yes, it seems we have very similar outlooks on this. I would greatly prefer landing Ball or trading KP for Hayward (or both) but it probably will be DeRozan and if so that makes Brunson particularly expendable.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:40 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Lack of future picks might have played a role as well. As of now they won´t have any picks this summer. No picks in 2023. 2020 draft was a good opportunity to pick up some youth for cheap.
This is EXACTLY the conclusion I came to when they not only used the picks (instead of trading them) but added one in the Curry trade. I agree.
I suppose one could make an argument that it pointed to them valuing the draft more, however. We'll see.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:52 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: I suppose one could make an argument that it pointed to them valuing the draft more, however. We'll see.
What I was confused was the inconsistency. They drafted (if my memory is correct) Spalding a couple of years back, gave him a four year deal and dumped him a couple of months later. Same thing happened with Roby. I mean come on - if you thought a guy deserved 4 years than work with him at least 2 of them before giving up on him. You can't change your mind after three months. This is all stuff that shows lack of strategy.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 09:49 AM)mvossman Wrote: Yes, it seems we have very similar outlooks on this. I would greatly prefer landing Ball or trading KP for Hayward (or both) but it probably will be DeRozan and if so that makes Brunson particularly expendable.
I’m really enjoying the comments made by you and Omahen today. I thought his post was a brilliant approach to Team Patient.
I used to be a Lonzo guy, but started to sour when I heard a podcast describe his aversion to contact. He doesn’t score at the rim unless on the break and he doesn’t draw fouls. In a playoff series, he’s a worse shooting Hardaway with better passing and D.
I have issues with DeRozan also, but watching the amount of contact the ref’s just let slide in the playoffs, I think he needs to be the guy. It isn’t enough to just move the ball once Luka beats the double (which DeRozan can certainly do). You have to be able to get a shot off with a defender hanging on for dear life. DeRozan fits that bill better than most. His lack of a 3 pointer and poor defense are certainly a concern. But, I suspect scoring won’t be our issue if we have Luka, KP and DeRozan on the floor. I don’t agree that Brunson is expendable if DeRozan is signed. If the system is that we need two creators on the floor, then I like JB against backups with either DeRozan or Luka on the floor with him.
I did like your exploration of the various ways we might go about getting DeRozan. Really good stuff and good names also.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ClutchDirk - 06-29-2021
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10006696-windhorst-damian-lillard-not-seriously-considering-trade-demand-despite-recent-buzz
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - HanspardsShowerVoice - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 10:09 AM)omahen Wrote: What I was confused was the inconsistency. They drafted (if my memory is correct) Spalding a couple of years back, gave him a four year deal and dumped him a couple of months later. Same thing happened with Roby. I mean come on - if you thought a guy deserved 4 years than work with him at least 2 of them before giving up on him. You can't change your mind after three months. This is all stuff that shows lack of strategy.
Yeah, stuff like this indicates a problem was more the left hand not knowing what the right hand was doing. The organizational approach, scouting, player development and coaching was so siloed into their own compartments with no coherent overall strategy
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - VintagePejav2 - 06-29-2021
I really want Mike Conley here.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 11:06 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: The organizational approach, scouting, player development and coaching was so siloed into their own compartments with no coherent overall strategy
What I don't really understand is the hope stuff will be different now. Leader has not changed, only heads of comparments. I guess a lot has to do with the fact that the lead strategist is not committed 100 % due to one hundred other obligations, so he is just jumping from one shiny object to another while listening to many "cool people" he meets. Also the little things are not important for him.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - loki - 06-29-2021
(06-29-2021, 11:46 AM)VintagePejav2 Wrote: I really want Mike Conley here.
I really want to trade KP for a playmaker and sign Holmes. But if KP is still here, I think Conley would be my preferred target. Either that or take a chance on THT.