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2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Hogmelon - 06-28-2021

(06-28-2021, 12:28 PM)jesusshuttlesworth82 Wrote: Can we fast forward two months?

(06-28-2021, 05:25 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Would be nice

I would rather REWIND  two months (that is, if everyone associated with the Mavs could learn from the mistakes made over the last two months).

(And, of course, I was so much younger back then.)

https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401307746

http://bkref.com/boxscores/?month=4&day=29&year=2021

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1G9TJk853ps

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 06-28-2021

(06-28-2021, 06:18 PM)mvossman Wrote: The new regime was not brought in to draft.  They were brought in to recruit.


Yes, primarily. But everything I have read about Nico points to him having an eye for talent that SHOULD translate to drafting as well.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - fifteenth - 06-28-2021

Nico will get us all the draft picks, and all the free agents


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Hogmelon - 06-28-2021

(06-28-2021, 08:33 PM)fifteenth Wrote: Nico will get us all the draft picks, and all the free agents

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM2K7sV-K74

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svYqI1PvcpM


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - fifteenth - 06-28-2021

He's the most interesting man in the world


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Jommybone - 06-28-2021

Nico knows words. He has the best words.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Aussiebballer - 06-29-2021

Any euro poster have a scouting report on Mike Tobey?
6’11” 26yr big playing for Slovenia ?? 
Had 6 alley oops plays with Luka in one warm up game recently


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 06-29-2021

I want to spend a little time talking about freeing up picks for superstar trades.  I think it is fairly well known that we can't trade our 2022 or 2024 picks because we don't have one in 23.  And in fact, we can't currently trade 2025 or 2026 because there is a chance that the protected 2023 pick we sent to NY could convey in either 24 or 25 if it doesn't convey in 23.  So, the earliest we can currently trade a pick is 2027 since we have to have a 2026 pick until we are assured of having a 2025 pick.    

Some of this can be fixed by dealing with NY.  We can simply seek their permission to lift the protections on 2023.  That would allow us to now trade 2025 and 2027 because we now know we will have a 2024 pick.  The last time this happened, Milwaukee had to give up a second rounder to lift the protections on a pick they owed Cleveland so the Bucks could have clean picks to send to NO in the Holiday trade.  If Dallas did something similar, they would still be without a 2023 pick (and NY would now have an unprotected pick).  

If we are really going to go for a top star, we probably need to send out three picks.  That would require that we cleaned up the protections on the 23 pick we sent to NY AND that we ALSO acquire a 2023 pick.  Dealing with NY in some form or fashion is necessary as we have to clean up the 23 protection to trade 24.  NY has some leverage here.  It has been proposed that we deal Brunson for our old pick back.  But, NY knows the game and they know we have to clean up the protections AND acquire a pick.  If I'm NY, I probably require the protection be lifted and then give up the "worst of" the Dallas 2023 and their own 2023.  There is a chance the Dallas pick is the #1 overall and their own pick is high teens/low twenties by then.  Sending out the "worst of" means they still have a shot at a low lottery pick in 23 (ours) and are likely paying a first in the late teens/early 20's if you assume NY grows from its current status as a playoff team.  Yes, they could simply give us our 2023 pick back, but why would they for a backup PG who is totally free a year from now.

If NY (or Dallas) doesn't want to do such a deal, then we are back to paying a second to eliminate protection on our own 2023 and shopping for a 2023 from another team in order to be able to swap 22, 24 and 26 for a superstar.  Here is the list of teams with unprotected picks in 2023:

Atlanta
Boston
Brooklyn (Swap with Houston)
Charlotte
Cleveland
Golden State
Houston (Swap with Brooklyn)***
Indiana
LAC (Swap with OKC)
LAL (Swap with NO)
Memphis*
Minnesota
NO (Swap with LAL)
NYK*
OKC (Swap with LAL)***
Orlando*
Philly
Portland
SAC
SA
TOR

Getting a fully unprotected pick is uncommon.  The pick swaps offered by Brooklyn, LAL and LAC are kind of like lightly protected picks.  At least Brooklyn, LAL and LAC know they aren't giving up the top overall pick (because if they were, HOU, NO and OKC would swap for it).  These might be easier to trade to us, but they wouldn't count as protections because we'd be assured of getting some pick in 2023.

In addition, I placed an * by teams that have a shot at multiple picks including HOU (own +3), Memphis, NY, OKC (own +3) and Orlando.  All of these extra picks have protection except the Milwaukee pick owed to HOU.  Dallas just needs to be assured of a pick in 23 in order to be able to trade 22, 24 and 26 after the 21 draft is completed (and after protections are lifted on their own 2023).  It could be the "worst of" here also for teams to avoid giving up a totally unprotected pick.  So, OKC could trade us it's own pick and hedge that by saying the pick becomes that of PHX, DEN or MIA if any are conveyed that year and worse than OKC's own pick.  It is still a little risky for OKC.  You can imagine a scenario where the OKC pick is early lottery and the other three picks don't convey.  The Phoenix pick is likely to convey in 22, but does anyone believe Miami AND Denver will be lottery teams in 23?  Houston would be in a better position to do this as they know the Milwaukee pick will convey.  So, they could do a "worst of" from among their own, Milwaukee's unprotected or the Detroit or Washington firsts if they convey.  What would Houston want from us?  My guess would be to move on from Eric Gordon.  JRich and a youngster for Gordon and the worst of all of their 2023 first rounders?

Finally, the team we are trading with could send us their 2023 pick in order to take back our picks in 22, 24 and 26.  The rule says we can't be without two consecutive "future" picks at the conclusion of the deal.  So, say we are pursuing a star on Portland's team.  Since they have their own clean 2023, it could be swapped for the three Dallas picks if it is unprotected.  That is just a net of two picks, not three.  So, maybe Dallas comes up with a 2021 pick from somewhere as part of the KP deal.  They can then swap 21 (from another team) and their own 22, 24 and 26 for said star and Portland's 23 (assuming we already lifted the protections on the pick we owe NY).  There is an issue here in that Portland would have to give up an unprotected pick in the middle of what is likely to be a rebuilding phase.  Not ideal and therefore not likely.

Sorry for re-writing War and Peace.  A true superstar is going to be expensive and anything we do to acquire picks and clean up our deal with NY is going to be complex and expensive.  But, there are paths to get there.  Probably the easiest to imagine involves trading our second in 2022 to NY to lift the protections and then dealing with Houston (JRich/Hinton for Gordon and their worst 2023).  Do that and we now have two years of Gordon and the ability to trade KP (or the assets we get for KP) plus our 22, 24 and 26 first round picks.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Aussiebballer - 06-29-2021

Sounds like it will be a lot easier to acquire a 2023 pick after next season when teams  are more confident of where they will finish in 2023.
So we may have to wait and try to accumulate assets for a year.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 03:31 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I want to spend a little time talking about freeing up picks for superstar trades. 


Thanks for the great elaborate. I am not so convinced Houston would be willing to give picks to get rid of Gordon, because why would they? They have to spend salary on someone and their main task is to gather picks, not give them away. Even bad ones. But nevertheless, my conclusion would be - where is a will there is a way. It is just a question how much would it cost. Perhaps OKC or Houston would give us their worst pick for Brunson. Mavs can create ability to offer 2022, 2024 and 2026 unprotected picks. Problem that remains is that we can't really offer much else, especially if KP value is really very low. Yesterday I gave an example of three team trade with Washington and Portland, that would give us following team before exception money:

Luka, Terry
Dame, JRich
DFS, Hutchinson, Bey
Kleber, Bertans
Powell, WCS

Calculate zero assets for a foreseable future. Is this really a team that screams multiple titles? A team that would give Dame confidence to come? Can exception money cover all the holes?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dirkfansince1998 - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 01:51 AM)Aussiebballer Wrote: Any euro poster have a scouting report on Mike Tobey?
6’11” 26yr big playing for Slovenia ?? 
Had 6 alley oops plays with Luka in one warm up game recently

He actually was on the Hornets roster in 16/17. Played in two games (25 minutes total). Was waived and signed with Valencia. Looking at some of his tape he is the typical skilled offensive big. Good touch around the rim. Good midrange shooter. Can make the occasional three.
Big problem is the defensive end. He is slow and cannot defend in space (FIBA rules really help him). Not a rim protector either.
Overall probably not an NBA level player. But his timing and touch as the roll man or cutter around the rim showed how valuable a player like this can be next to Luka.
Slovenia will play the first game of the olympic qualifier tournament tommorrow. Will be interesting to see if one of Luka´s teammates or another euro player emerges as a target for the Mavs or other teams.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 05:36 AM)omahen Wrote: Thanks for the great elaborate. I am not so convinced Houston would be willing to give picks to get rid of Gordon, because why would they? They have to spend salary on someone and their main task is to gather picks, not give them away. Even bad ones. But nevertheless, my conclusion would be - where is a will there is a way. It is just a question how much would it cost. Perhaps OKC or Houston would give us their worst pick for Brunson. Mavs can create ability to offer 2022, 2024 and 2026 unprotected picks. Problem that remains is that we can't really offer much else, especially if KP value is really very low. Yesterday I gave an example of three team trade with Washington and Portland, that would give us following team before exception money:

Luka, Terry
Dame, JRich
DFS, Hutchinson, Bey
Kleber, Bertans
Powell, WCS

Calculate zero assets for a foreseable future. Is this really a team that screams multiple titles? A team that would give Dame confidence to come? Can exception money cover all the holes?

I think the thing I didn't care for is you did this under the cap in order to maximize savings for Portland.  I don't presume they would go into full rebuild mode yet.  In my Charlotte based deal, I was able to generate significant savings for Portland while staying over the cap.  I think keeping THJ and the ability to add a full MLE player would make your Washington based deal look better.  There is a version of this where Portland gets Thomas Bryant to pair with Nurkic, JRich, Green, Avdija and the picks you outline.  Portland is $21mm under the tax line with room to sign Norman Powell.

For those who object to fantasy trades involving Lillard, this whole thing started under the assumption that he specifically demands a trade to Dallas.  Other teams can clearly offer better packages.  I do believe Lillard is boiling the frog a bit through his mouthpiece in the media and certainly could move this offseason.  I also believe it is within the realm of possibility that with Kidd and Nico here he "could" specify Dallas.  It isn't a high likelihood event, but it isn't impossible either.

The updated trade that includes Washington might leave Dallas with something like:

Luka/Brunson/Terry
Dame/THJ/Burke
DFS/THJ/Bey
Maxi/Bertans/Bey
Full MLE/Powell/WCS


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Hypermav - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 03:31 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Getting a fully unprotected pick is uncommon.
I like the fact we can do this, if MBT 2.0 choose to go this route.  Dame level player is worth the risk imo.  Thanks for the info!


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Chicagojk - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 04:13 AM)Aussiebballer Wrote: Sounds like it will be a lot easier to acquire a 2023 pick after next season when teams  are more confident of where they will finish in 2023.
So we may have to wait and try to accumulate assets for a year.

I don't want to diminish any posters because I certainly couldn't put together the work that has been done looking for avenues to get a Dame level talent.  But I tend to agree with your post.    Although, it can debated you can't really pick the time when a star hits the trade market.   Time will tell, if Dame actually hits the market this summer.

But I think the best chance for our own "Jrue Holiday" trade may be 2 years from now.   Improve your top end talent with a FA signing or two, Develop your young kids, and keep your solid players on good or expiring contracts.   Once we are past our first round picks commitment, we may have a much better war chest down the road.   I do agree that '23 pick is tricky, but I don't know paying 1.50 on the dollar to resolve it now may not be the best move.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 07:33 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: But I think the best chance for our own "Jrue Holiday" trade may be 2 years from now.   Improve your top end talent with a FA signing or two, Develop your young kids, and keep your solid players on good or expiring contracts.   Once we are past our first round picks commitment, we may have a much better war chest down the road.   I do agree that '23 pick is tricky, but I don't know paying 1.50 on the dollar to resolve it now may not be the best move.

I think that's one of the big questions here.  Patient or Proactive?  

If simply patient, the criticism will be "hell, Donnie could have sat on his hands.  In fact, he was good at it.  Why did we bring the Nike recruiter here again?".  I can also see Cuban wanting to make a big splash to show the issue with all of the toxicity was the guys who left, and it is fixed now.

IF you go with Team Patient, do you spend big money on guys like DeRozan, Conley and Lowry?  Or, take a shot at some younger guys who could surprise to the upside and provide trade value in a year or two?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - HanspardsShowerVoice - 06-29-2021

(06-28-2021, 08:13 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Yes, primarily. But everything I have read about Nico points to him having an eye for talent that SHOULD translate to drafting as well.

Yeah, I don't think Nico is just the Mavs version of World Wide Wes who is some player agent/mentor recruiter, although that will be part of his job and part of the appeal.   


Brian Demaris was on the Hardline talking about Nico and he stressed this.   Nico didn't sell shoes or write marketing ads.  He oversaw a group that scouted, recruited and serviced players.   Nike has professional scouts on staff.  They are at college and international games sitting right next to the team scouts.  They try to identify them at a young age, then negotiate a contract and see them through that process and then service them.  Nico oversaw a large department with a lot of employees.   DeMaris was talking to someone inside the Mavs building about the hire and while DeMaris was going on about what a smart and charismatic guy Nico was, it was stressed to him by his source that Nico is a also great manager. 

DeMaris said when he was in the Mavs basketball ops in 2002, there were 10 people in the department.   Now there's 50.   Health, player development, nutrition experts, scouting, analytics, etc.   DeMaris kinda implied that the dysfunctional that has been unearthed in the front office the past few weeks stems from not having  a great managers to handle and coordinate all these people.   Donnie is a "basketball guy" and probably has great basketball sources and buddies all around the globe that he can go out and  get great information from over beers, but the attention to detail and coordinating and overseeing 50 employees is not who he is.   The demands of the job have outgrown Donnie's skillsets over time, imho.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 08:40 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: Yeah, I don't think Nico is just the Mavs version of World Wide Wes who is some player agent/mentor recruiter, although that will be part of his job and part of the appeal.


Thanks for this great post. Shocking that someone spoke to the issue and didn't just pile on in making fun of me. Wink


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Chicagojk - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 08:40 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: Yeah, I don't think Nico is just the Mavs version of World Wide Wes who is some player agent/mentor recruiter, although that will be part of his job and part of the appeal.   


Brian Demaris was on the Hardline talking about Nico and he stressed this.   Nico didn't sell shoes or write marketing ads.  He oversaw a group that scouted, recruited and serviced players.   Nike has professional scouts on staff.  They are at college and international games sitting right next to the team scouts.  They try to identify them at a young age, then negotiate a contract and see them through that process and then service them.  Nico oversaw a large department with a lot of employees.   DeMaris was talking to someone inside the Mavs building about the hire and while DeMaris was going on about what a smart and charismatic guy Nico was, it was stressed to him by his source that Nico is a also great manager. 

DeMaris said when he was in the Mavs basketball ops in 2002, there were 10 people in the department.   Now there's 50.   Health, player development, nutrition experts, scouting, analytics, etc.   DeMaris kinda implied that the dysfunctional that has been unearthed in the front office the past few weeks stems from not having  a great managers to handle and coordinate all these people.   Donnie is a "basketball guy" and probably has great basketball sources and buddies all around the globe that he can go out and  get great information from over beers, but the attention to detail and coordinating and overseeing 50 employees is not who he is.   The demands of the job have outgrown Donnie's skillsets over time, imho.
 Thanks for the info.  Sort of surprising this may have been figured out recently.   It appears with the articles we have seen recently, other teams have known this for a long time.   I think Hollinger has made some veiled comments about how the Mavs are typically very lose and may not be as detailed as other teams.   

Thanks for the summary!


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ItsGoTime - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 08:44 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Thanks for this great post. Shocking that someone spoke to the issue and didn't just pile on in making fun of me. Wink
Hey, I'm mostly with you, just can't defend you cause I am wait and see about all this. 

A change needed to be made. 

This change is to be determined as far as effectiveness.

I very much hope for the best cause that means we have a great squad that is building chemistry and "want" to play together, with a coach that is helping that happen. 



I understand your enthusiasm, and want to see the best out of all of this...imagine my relief when Mark finally got rid of the 12-15 year old spoiled milk in the fridge.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 06-29-2021

(06-29-2021, 08:40 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: Yeah, I don't think Nico is just the Mavs version of World Wide Wes who is some player agent/mentor recruiter, although that will be part of his job and part of the appeal.   


We don't know that this guy is a qualified personnel evaluator yet, but people who know the most about him seem to project that he will be, which is a good sign. I don't buy that the evaluation portion of his Nike career will directly translate to this job, even if there is some overlap. However, like you I tend to believe he'll be good, once he gets some experience. Better than Donnie, at least. 

As for the draft, however, the thing that I most often read complaints about around here isn't the misses on players picked (frustrating, but every team has those), it's the blatant and clear philosophy the Mavs have always signaled that they don't value the draft as a means of improving, especially in situations where they feel they have their star and are already a playoff team. Will that change with the new staff, or is that philosophy held at the TOP of the organization? That's the question, imho.