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2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-14-2021

(06-14-2021, 04:24 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: Total for Charlotte: Bridges, rights to '21 FRP, '23 FRP; for KP, right to pick swap '22, and 2 of Terry/Bey/Hinton.

Not happening


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - loki - 06-14-2021

Similar to Washington, with Charlotte I would be more interested in a 3-team KP deal that brings a quality starter back. FVV, Brogdon, Collins, Turner, or whoever. What they can offer straight up is not all that interesting, and trading KP for a pile of draft picks is not the Mavs style.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-14-2021

The trade if there is one would be something involving KP for Hayward. I like the idea of a Pacers 3-way in the event that Mavs prefer Turner and Pacers prefer Hayward (they were very close to landing him last year).

The Hornets are sort of in the same boat with Hayward that the Mavs are in with KP. Hayward had a good statistical year but was injured during the playoffs. Sound familiar? Hornets have cap space and a young core sans 31-yr old Hayward. They could flip Hayward into KP or Turner and still have cap space.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-14-2021

I don't think Mavs would do KP/Hayward straight up especially if Pacers want Hayward for Turner + Lamb. If Mavs do the latter they could still do the max Collins offer, Dragic for MLE and we are off to the races.

Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Lamb
Collins/Powell
Turner/Powell/WCS

In this scenario I think Collins/Turner fit well together and there are other combinations that work bc Collins and Turner both can shoot outside. The only combo that you wouldn't see if Powell and WCS on the floor at the same time.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 06-14-2021

(06-14-2021, 05:31 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: I don't think Mavs would do KP/Hayward straight up especially if Pacers want Hayward for Turner + Lamb. If Mavs do the latter they could still do the max Collins offer, Dragic for MLE and we are off to the races.

Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Lamb
Collins/Powell
Turner/Powell/WCS

In this scenario I think Collins/Turner fit well together and there are other combinations that work bc Collins and Turner both can shoot outside. The only combo that you wouldn't see if Powell and WCS on the floor at the same time.

They would be a great fit.  The fact that we might have two different teams (Wizards) play the third team in a KP for Turner/Lamb deal makes me think this is something that might actually happen.  That would open a lot of doors from a roster construction standpoint.  It also provides roughly an extra 3 mil in cap space if we are going that route.  It's a shame Maxi would likely be outgoing for Collins.  He is a better fit with Collins than Powell is.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-14-2021

(06-14-2021, 06:23 PM)mvossman Wrote: They would be a great fit.  The fact that we might have two different teams (Wizards) play the third team in a KP for Turner/Lamb deal makes me think this is something that might actually happen.  That would open a lot of doors from a roster construction standpoint.  It also provides roughly an extra 3 mil in cap space if we are going that route.  It's a shame Maxi would likely be outgoing for Collins.  He is a better fit with Collins than Powell is.

Ya it seems like if Hawks want anybody it would be Maxi since he is a stretch 4 that can play with Capella.

I'd love Turner but Tim Cato today poured some cold water on KP trade talks. It doesn't seem like the FO is as focused on. trading. KP as we are. They are also so deep in damage control at the moment they probably aren't thinking about any trades at all.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 06-14-2021

(06-14-2021, 09:52 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: It doesn't seem like the FO is as focused on. trading. KP as we are. They are also so deep in damage control at the moment they probably aren't thinking about any trades at all.


Shoot....from what we now know, how can they try and trade KP when other teams don't even know WHO to talk to and WHO makes the decisions??


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-14-2021

(06-14-2021, 09:55 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Shoot....from what we now know, how can they try and trade KP when other teams don't even know WHO to talk to and WHO makes the decisions??

Nah I don't believe that. I think Donnie runs point on all this stuff even if Cubes and Rick have their seat at the table in the MBT.

The issue with Bob is him having too much influence on who the Mavs target both in free agency and the draft. That's the issue, is he's acting like a head scout.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Jym - 06-15-2021

I'm just so interested in seeing what the plan is now. Well hopefully there is a plan. Just a lot of waiting and hoping from the MBT lately.  

Operating under the cap, I feel like moving KP with as little salary coming back is required to improve the roster in a meaningful way. Over the cap with a Cuban willing to spend luxury tax I would have been more fine continuing the KP gamble. 
But we're not in that situation. 
I'm still just trying to wrap my head around this past trade deadline and the lack of added future salary. Such a weird situation. After re-signing THJ, we really don't gain that much spending power by going under the cap compared to just using the exceptions. 
Basically just replacing Richardson with a MLE level guy unless we find another way to shuffle salaries


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - RedFlag41 - 06-15-2021

What do you think about just getting Kyle Lowry for Porzingis in a sign and Trade?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dirkfansince1998 - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 02:23 AM)RedFlag41 Wrote: What do you think about just getting Kyle Lowry for Porzingis in a sign and Trade?

Sign and trade requires a minimum of thee years. At a similar salary that means 100m for Kyle Lowry. Not interested.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - SleepingHero - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 02:23 AM)RedFlag41 Wrote: What do you think about just getting Kyle Lowry for Porzingis in a sign and Trade?


Trading away a 25 year old potential all-star talent for a 36 year old on his last legs just doesn't make sense.

Now add in that Lowry will need a minimum of 25 mm per year for at least 3 years and that plan went from probably never going to happen to a definitely not in a billion years.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Hypermav - 06-15-2021

https://theathletic.com/2650740/2021/06/15/chris-paul-kawhi-leonard-and-more-john-hollinger-projects-2021-offseason-option-decisions/

Player Options

Josh Richardson, SG, Dallas, $11,615,328; BORD$ value: $8,022,970

I’m old enough to remember when Dallas thought it would have max cap space this summer partly because Josh Richardson would surely opt out of the final year of his deal. Oopsie. Acquired as a defensive stopper to bring some balance to Dallas’ offense-heavy attack, Richardson became increasingly marginal to its operation as the year went on and played just 21 total minutes in the Mavs’ final three playoff games.
On the one hand, that might make Richardson more likely to opt out, but the problem is, even as a 27-year-old in his theoretical prime, his recent resume will make it difficult for him to improve on this current salary. A better pathway would be to seek a trade and hope the change of scenery lets him boost his value heading into next summer. 

Verdict: Opting in

Team Options

Goran Dragic, PG, Miami, $18,400,000; BORD$ value: $5,424,047

Between the age adjustment for turning 35 and a not-great 2020-21 season, BORD$ sees diminishing returns on Goran Dragic’s contract. It seems highly unlikely Miami would pick up the option given the Heat’s cap room scenarios if they let him walk, with the only wild card being if his salary was needed as a matching contact to make a trade work. That likely means Dragic moves on to another team, but the Heat also could theoretically decline the option, use cap space and then re-sign Dragic with their room exception. 

Verdict: Declined

Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Dallas $4,100,000; BORD$ value: $6,134,621

BORD$ continues to be more bullish on Willie Cauley-Stein than the general sentiment around the league, but regardless of valuation, Cauley-Stein’s situation could hinge on other factors. In particular, Richardson’s decision above likely impacts his significantly. If Richardson opts out, the Mavs can decline Cauley-Stein’s option and have $35 million in cap room, which is potentially enough to retain Tim Hardaway Jr. and still add another starter-caliber player.
If Richardson opts in, however, Dallas likely will have less than MLE money left over after re-signing Hardaway, which makes the entire cap room exercise pointless. In that event, it seems more likely the Mavs pick up Cauley-Stein’s option, too; at the very least, his expiring deal could be piled into a trade. 

Verdict: Picked up


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - khaled1987 - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 06:41 AM)Hypermav Wrote: https://theathletic.com/2650740/2021/06/15/chris-paul-kawhi-leonard-and-more-john-hollinger-projects-2021-offseason-option-decisions/

If Richardson opts in, however, Dallas likely will have less than MLE money left over after re-signing Hardaway, which makes the entire cap room exercise pointless. In that event, it seems more likely the Mavs pick up Cauley-Stein’s option, too; at the very least, his expiring deal could be piled into a trade. 

It feels more and more the Mavs will have to rely on trades rather than out right FA signings. 
Not sure I'm excited about this offseason


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Chicagojk - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 06:41 AM)Hypermav Wrote: https://theathletic.com/2650740/2021/06/15/chris-paul-kawhi-leonard-and-more-john-hollinger-projects-2021-offseason-option-decisions/

Player Options

Josh Richardson, SG, Dallas, $11,615,328; BORD$ value: $8,022,970

I’m old enough to remember when Dallas thought it would have max cap space this summer partly because Josh Richardson would surely opt out of the final year of his deal. Oopsie. Acquired as a defensive stopper to bring some balance to Dallas’ offense-heavy attack, Richardson became increasingly marginal to its operation as the year went on and played just 21 total minutes in the Mavs’ final three playoff games.
On the one hand, that might make Richardson more likely to opt out, but the problem is, even as a 27-year-old in his theoretical prime, his recent resume will make it difficult for him to improve on this current salary. A better pathway would be to seek a trade and hope the change of scenery lets him boost his value heading into next summer. 

Verdict: Opting in

Team Options

Goran Dragic, PG, Miami, $18,400,000; BORD$ value: $5,424,047

Between the age adjustment for turning 35 and a not-great 2020-21 season, BORD$ sees diminishing returns on Goran Dragic’s contract. It seems highly unlikely Miami would pick up the option given the Heat’s cap room scenarios if they let him walk, with the only wild card being if his salary was needed as a matching contact to make a trade work. That likely means Dragic moves on to another team, but the Heat also could theoretically decline the option, use cap space and then re-sign Dragic with their room exception. 

Verdict: Declined

Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Dallas $4,100,000; BORD$ value: $6,134,621

BORD$ continues to be more bullish on Willie Cauley-Stein than the general sentiment around the league, but regardless of valuation, Cauley-Stein’s situation could hinge on other factors. In particular, Richardson’s decision above likely impacts his significantly. If Richardson opts out, the Mavs can decline Cauley-Stein’s option and have $35 million in cap room, which is potentially enough to retain Tim Hardaway Jr. and still add another starter-caliber player.
If Richardson opts in, however, Dallas likely will have less than MLE money left over after re-signing Hardaway, which makes the entire cap room exercise pointless. In that event, it seems more likely the Mavs pick up Cauley-Stein’s option, too; at the very least, his expiring deal could be piled into a trade. 

Verdict: Picked up

Thanks for sharing.  I know there is debate on whether him opting in or out is the best strategy.  Time will tell.   I fear him opting in is the bad outcome.   I fear it will leave us to trade for a similar level rated player (solid bench piece...was Richardson even solid though?).   Then if you resign Hardaway, and bring back the similar team.  A team with good depth but still missing 2-3 starting caliber players.    I guess you can hope that they turn our parts into a bigger piece, but I have been burned too much the last few years to get my hopes up.   

On a separate note, I know these are pro athletes and they work out all the time, but I saw WCS Instagram story and it looks like he has been working out in Dallas and in the latest on Ty Terry was working out with him.   If true, glad Terry is in Dallas (WCS too).   Hopefully our other rookies are also staying close this offseason (with the exception of Green who will be playing some international ball).


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Mavs2021 - 06-15-2021

Why do so many people think the Mavs have to retain THJ? I don´t get it.

The last five play-offs games THJ shot:

25-74 = 33.7%
12-40 = 30%
8-8 = 100%

14 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 0.8 APG on bad shooting and suspect defense. One reason we struggle so much without Luka is that THJ cannot handle the ball at all. 

If you exclude THJ´s two first games in this series, that´s also not that far off what his career play-off stats look like. You can easily replace that production.

Orlando probably has no use for Terrence Ross anymore. I think they would consider Richardson for T-Ross straight up. One year less on Richardson, slightly smaller salary and can probably agree to a buyout eventually to save even more money. The Mavs get a player for a cost-controlling 25/2, rather than 72/4 for THJ.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 08:12 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Orlando probably has no use for Terrence Ross anymore. I think they would consider Richardson for T-Ross straight up. One year less on Richardson, slightly smaller salary and can probably agree to a buyout eventually to save even more money. The Mavs get a player for a cost-controlling 25/2, rather than 72/4 for THJ.

Every bone in my body wishes the Mavs would do this. The drop-off from THJ to Ross is not much imo. I know THJ has had 2 very good statistical years but I would point to his court-mate Luka for a lot of that improvement. THJ has worked hard so I don't want to discount that. But I would take my chances on Ross as more bang for the buck.

That being said it feels inevitable that Mavs will resign THJ. In fact they could still get Ross for that J Rich trade.

I believe most of their best options will be through trades or S&Ts, while operating over the cap. In that scenario then it *sort of* makes sense to keep THJ, assuming his price doesn't get too high which would make him harder to trade later on.

If THJ *did* sign for say 17-18 a year and you have 16 mil in potential cap space that sounds good on its face. But there aren't a lot of obvious 16-17 mil dollar players. Holmes is the guy to watch. I expect Kings to clear cap space to try to keep him which will creating a bidding war between them and the Raptors, maybe the Hornets as well.

Collins is the guy Mavs *could* get conceivably for Maxi and other contracts to get their big target and keep THJ. I think if that falls through than most of their other targets will involve trades. Guys like Markkanen, Dinwiddie, etc. allow them to add basically 2 impact players while retaining THJ.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-15-2021

https://theathletic.com/2650740/2021/06/15/chris-paul-kawhi-leonard-and-more-john-hollinger-projects-2021-offseason-option-decisions/

One of the targets I like from this list is Baynes. They are thinking Raptors will not pick up his option and that his value is around vet min. Baynes is older but still a solid player. I would like a guy with beef in the rotation. If you could get Baynes for the BAE I think that would be a solid addition.

So plan A-ish could be Collins for Maxi/Rich/sweetners, Dragic for MLE, Baynes for BAE. A move like that might make WCS disposable if you want to trade him for another player like a wing.

Main rotation guys:

Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Green
Collins
KP/Powell/Baynes


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 08:12 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Why do so many people think the Mavs have to retain THJ? I don´t get it.

The last five play-offs games THJ shot:

25-74 = 33.7%
12-40 = 30%
8-8 = 100%

14 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 0.8 APG on bad shooting and suspect defense. One reason we struggle so much without Luka is that THJ cannot handle the ball at all. 

If you exclude THJ´s two first games in this series, that´s also not that far off what his career play-off stats look like. You can easily replace that production.

Orlando probably has no use for Terrence Ross anymore. I think they would consider Richardson for T-Ross straight up. One year less on Richardson, slightly smaller salary and can probably agree to a buyout eventually to save even more money. The Mavs get a player for a cost-controlling 25/2, rather than 72/4 for THJ.

It's not that people think they have to.  It's that they think they will.  There is mutual interest between the two, and not likely somebody is going to money whip THJ out of here.  There is also the potential advantage of operating over the cap and getting the full MLE.  

I'm not sure cherry picking a subset of games in a single playoff series is the best way to evaluate a player.  The main reason we struggle with Luka off the court is that we don't really have anyone to run the second unit.  Brunson is more of a undersized SG and there is nobody else.  

That being said, I am not married to THJ as I think he is a questionable fit next to Luka starting due to his questionable defense.  I am simply resigned to the likelihood that's the direction they will take (unless he needs to go to land a "star").


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 01:19 AM)Jym Wrote: I'm just so interested in seeing what the plan is now. Well hopefully there is a plan. Just a lot of waiting and hoping from the MBT lately.  

Operating under the cap, I feel like moving KP with as little salary coming back is required to improve the roster in a meaningful way. Over the cap with a Cuban willing to spend luxury tax I would have been more fine continuing the KP gamble. 
But we're not in that situation. 
I'm still just trying to wrap my head around this past trade deadline and the lack of added future salary. Such a weird situation. After re-signing THJ, we really don't gain that much spending power by going under the cap compared to just using the exceptions. 
Basically just replacing Richardson with a MLE level guy unless we find another way to shuffle salaries

So I see a couple of scenarios where we keep KP, re-sign THJ, operating under the cap, and still significantly improve the team.  I don't look at JRich opting in as a significant problem.  I think JRich at that amount for a single year is probably a small asset.  We could probably trade him into a team with cap space for a second.  He could also potentially be part of either of the following trades.

First option is trade Brunson for S&T of Ball.  I would prefer to do this without sending out Brunson (like an opted in JRich plus a couple of seconds) but not sure that will get it done.  It would also put a squeeze on the THJ contract.  If you send out Brunson and sign Ball to 4/100 (which is an overpay) then you could start THJ at 14 (which would be 16 AAV).  You might have to burn a second to dump Burke to make the numbers work, but you could probably get it done.  Then you have the room to beef up the bench.

Second option is trade Maxi for S&T of Collins at the max (also an overpay).  It would be nice if we could send enough to Atlanta to salary match (JRich opting in would help with this) but maybe that does not work out.  Then you would still have 15 to sign THJ and the room for bench help.

In my mind, these are the two best options to mostly run it back but still improve the team.  The NO trade would have to operate under the cap because they are not looking to take on a lot of salary.  I think the biggest impediment to that trade is whether Ball wants to come here.  The Collins trade is more about Atlanta and what they want to do.  If they have continued success in playoffs, they may not let him go.