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+--- Thread: 2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived (/showthread.php?tid=682)
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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 12:19 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Have to agree that keeping both of them makes the offseason grade no better than that B-. Question? If we’re keeping THJ, don’t we also have to figure out a way to work over the cap to get the full MLE? I think that has to be the case otherwise the score can be no better than C+.
My line of thinking. Getting one of those and resign THJ requires minimum creativity. Either negotiate lower salaries, perform minor SnT or dump minor salaries. That's why B-.
Going over the cap is way more difficult. It would require a partner team to take a bunch of salaries, let's say roughly 20 mil worth. Not every team is prepared to do that, so list of possible FA is not reduced just by the will to come here but also a will of their team to do SnT. Or you need to involve third team paying assets to take our salaries. In the end one might wonder if the extra assets required for SnT are really worth the ability to have MLE instead of just rMLE. So a good over the cap would have to be very creative and requires a higher grade.
(06-13-2021, 01:51 PM)Hypermav Wrote: I give an F for rating the offseason before the offseason.
We didn't rate the offseason. We rated a couple of possible outcomes.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-13-2021
3 things I feel semi-strongly about:
1. Mavs want to operate over-the-cap
2. Mavs would like to move KP for the *right trade* but not for pennies on the dollar
3. Mavs #1 target will be Collins (namely bc BPA and fit with Luka)
If Mavs do not succeed in plan A they would be wise to try to add-to rather than upgrade any one spot. There's a chance that if you trade Maxi for example that you get someone worse. A lot of us thought J Rich was an upgrade over Curry. In retrospect the smarter play would have been just to add a player using Wright/Jax's contract + a pick.
The J Rich opt-in contract in my view will be a nice trade chip that allows you to add an impact player while keeping the MLE reserved for another impact player.
Mavs have 2nd round picks in 22, 24, 25 + Bey, Terry who are probably worth 2nd round picks as ammunition. Trey Burke is additional filler that might be needed for salary matching certain moves. JJR could also be used in a S&T deal.
A scenario I like is for example getting Rubio for mostly cap relief, using J Rich as your trade chip. Mavs could salary match with J Rich (+ Terry or Burke), and send a second round pick to Wolves while also giving them cap relief. A team with cap space or a large enough TE would take J Rich "for free" in the transaction.
Alternatively, Mavs could do the same thing with J Rich and Steven Adams. J Rich's salary is in a sweet spot where it can match a lot of usable players.
Mavs could also do S&T's for a lot of FA's using J Rich as the outgoing chip. A team like the Magic could take J Rich into their Fournier exception for nothing and trade him later.
The Thunder have tons of cap space, if nothing else you could pay them a second round pick to take J Rich and Burke for a player up to 22 mil/yr in salary (you can double check my math).
Aminu is a guy that the Bulls might just give you for J Rich or a TE. Aminu would help provide some 'big wing' depth.
Garry Harris is not a guy that anyone is that excited ab but you could again probably get him for just J Rich & Burke in either a direct trade or 3-way (depending on whether Orlando wants cap space or the players).
Bottom line is you have the ability to add 2 rotation players without giving up any of your top 8 guys that are under contract or likely to be resigned (ie THJ). Additionally the BAE would give you another potential slot for a rotation player.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-13-2021
My list of "dump" players you can potentially get without using cap space or MLE:
- Rubio
- Adams
- G. Harris
- D. Green in a S&T
- Aminu
- Eric Gordon
- DJJ
- Dinwiddie
- Horford (would take J Rich, WCS, Burke combined for salary matching)
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - HAguiar95 - 06-13-2021
My '21 FA list:
Max: Collins;
20-25M: DeRozan, Conley, Lowry;
15-20M: Ball, Robinson, Markkanen, Holmes, Allen;
10-15M: Dragic, Dinwiddie, Horton-Tucker, Hardaway, Griffin;
MLE: McConnell, McDermott, Batum, Harrell, Theis, Olynyk;
rMLE: Korkmaz, Collins, Bullock, Burks.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 03:14 PM)HAguiar95 Wrote: Korkmaz
We haven't mention him a lot, but he is certainly a guy who has shown a lot of progress, still young. I think full MLE wouldn't be high for him. The problem is his fit, as we have a bench full of scorers (Brunson, THJ, Burke) and very few defenders.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 02:18 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: 3 things I feel semi-strongly about:
1. Mavs want to operate over-the-cap
2. Mavs would like to move KP for the *right trade* but not for pennies on the dollar
3. Mavs #1 target will be Collins (namely bc BPA and fit with Luka)
If Mavs do not succeed in plan A they would be wise to try to add-to rather than upgrade any one spot.
Bottom line is you have the ability to add 2 rotation players without giving up any of your top 8 guys that are under contract or likely to be resigned (ie THJ). Additionally the BAE would give you another potential slot for a rotation player.
Here's the deal I've been thinking through assuming JRich opts in and no trade of KP. We have $23.8mm in space if we set aside THJ for the moment and don't exercise the WCS TO. To your point, it would be nice to add players to THJ, not simply replace THJ. My plan is to do just that and add Batum and Graham. I would target Batum first and seek agreement for a contract starting at the $9.5mm MLE amount. I can stop right there, keep THJ and I've improved.
Instead though, I'm going to convince Charlotte I want Devonte Graham instead of THJ. Charlotte desperately needs a center. Their plan would be to hang onto his $4.7mm hold, grab a center with space and sign Graham above the cap. Yes, Graham is restricted, but if a team signs him to an offer, they can't match AND get their center. They only have $20.6mm to work with if you assume they want to keep the Graham hold, the Martin brothers and Jalen McDaniels (and I do). BTW, that $20.6mm in space does not include the cost of their pick. They are walking away from holds on Monk, Zeller and Biyombo in this scenario.
Charlotte has the room to go get Holmes at his reported $18mm asking price and keep Graham as long as Dallas doesn't screw it up for them. We can threaten that and then work to help each other out. The agreement is that Charlotte gets Holmes while retaining the Graham hold. They then do a S&T of Graham for JRich. We stay over the cap and can then formalize the MLE to Batum and bring back THJ.
There is the issue of BYC, but the beauty of this plan is we can overcome it. We can start Graham at any number under $16.7mm as long as half of that number will trade match JRich. I would propose we use $14.2mm in our early conversations with Charlotte. That is the amount of space we have left after signing Batum if we had to do it with cap space. The JRich contract matches $14.2 and half of $14.2...$7.1, is within $5 million of $11.6. What I like is you are 10 deep and can play all sorts of small and large lineups in the playoffs. Here is what would arguably be our best defensive lineup:
Luka/Brunson
Graham/Green
DFS/THJ
Batum/Maxi
KP/Powell/BAE
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 03:14 PM)HAguiar95 Wrote: Korkmaz
HUGE Korkmaz fan. Think he is probably the most underrated TWO WAY player available.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - HAguiar95 - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 03:29 PM)Kammrath Wrote: HUGE Korkmaz fan. Think he is probably the most underrated TWO WAY player available.
I wouldn't go that far. But he's a damn good basketball player on offense. Defensively I have some doubts because he is surrounded by elite defensive players. Even Curry has good defensive numbers there (and we know he suck on D). Same caution I have with MIL boys (DiVincenzo/Connaughton). Maybe I should upgrade him to full MLE and force PHI's hand.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 03:29 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Their plan would be to hang onto his $4.7mm hold, grab a center with space and sign Graham above the cap. Yes, Graham is restricted, but if a team signs him to an offer, they can't match AND get their center. They only have $20.6mm to work with if you assume they want to keep the Graham hold, the Martin brothers and Jalen McDaniels (and I do). BTW, that $20.6mm in space does not include the cost of their pick. They are walking away from holds on Monk, Zeller and Biyombo in this scenario.
Hornets will probably have an offer to Holmes at the opening of FA don't you think? Teams have a few days I think to match RFA sheets which is plenty of time to ink deals. A lot of the bigger deals happen within hours or even minutes.
Also I would think if Hornets for sure what to keep Graham they can go ahead and give him a competitive or above market offer to try to prevent him from signing an offer sheet somewhere.
To me Graham is gettable in that Hornets have a surplus of guards and as you say Mavs could hand them a suitable replacement in J Rich.
At any rate the basic framework of what you are saying makes sense to me and really narrows the list of real offseason targets to 1 MLE guy + 1 traded player on top of resigning THJ + any other player Mavs want to keep (eg WCS).
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 03:38 PM)HAguiar95 Wrote: Even Curry has good defensive numbers there (and we know he suck on D).
This year Curry was -0.8 on/off for D....Korkmaz was +2.6, which was the best number for the key rotation players.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-13-2021
Looking just at backup PG so far I have:
MLE targets: Dragic, Rose, McConnell, R. Jackson, Caruso
- or -
J-rich centered trade targets: Rubio, Dinwiddie, Graham
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Mavs2021 - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 03:20 PM)omahen Wrote: We haven't mention him a lot, but he is certainly a guy who has shown a lot of progress, still young. I think full MLE wouldn't be high for him. The problem is his fit, as we have a bench full of scorers (Brunson, THJ, Burke) and very few defenders.
THJ is not going to the bench, if he stays and gets paid what some here expect.
...and lord helps us all, if Trey Burke plays more than 10 minutes....total...next year. The bubble was a fluke. Every single regular season minute he played last season was a waste of time, that could have gone to Green, Bey or Terry.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-13-2021
Ya to me the starting lineup the Mavs are "starting with" to kick off the offseason is Luka, THJ, DFS, Powell, KP. Anybody they sign will be taking over one of those spots and so it makes sense that Powell's spot is the most realistically 'upgradable' one in the lineup (thus Collins being plan A).
I am still operating under the assumption that KP is not getting traded. If he does that could throw this whole thing out of whack if he is traded for a different position. If he is traded somehow for a package that includes Turner then maybe not.
Plan B-Z I think is some combination of trade + MLE that gets you likely a ball-handler and a big or wing. Ball-handler is a must, I think Mavs will make that move first. The ball-handler doesn't *have* to be able to play with Luka (altho itd be nice) but they do need to be able to play without Luka. Dragic is a natural fit given that he can slide into any lineup as the primary or secondary guard.
Once ball-handler is figured out in this plan B-Z, then the other chip (trade or MLE) can be used to get that other impact player.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ClutchDirk - 06-13-2021
https://twitter.com/LaurenMRosen/status/1403506821537701892
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-13-2021
Let me offer up the idea that Markkanen could be high up the list of B-Z. Bulls do not seem eager to keep him and are laser focused on Lonzo Ball. The Bulls would gladly swap Lauri for Lonzo but it's unclear whether Pels would have any interest. I do believe Lonzo will be mostly headed to Chicago in one way or another.
Chicago has Aminu, Young and Satoransky. All useful players + Coby White to throw at New Orleans in either change for Lonzo into cap space or potentially salary matching. Young and Sato have buyouts in case Chicago has to cut them to clear out space.
Interestingly enough between Markkanen, Sato, Young and Aminu - all of those guys would be good on the Mavs if Chicago is needing to give away players. My guess is that Chicago will be able to include enough of those players in a trade, even if it's a 3 way so that they can operate over the cap. This will allow them to keep guys like Theis.
For the Mavs I think they could probably get Markkanen for almost nothing in a S&T that sends J Rich to a third team, maybe even as part of a multi-team deal that is constructed for the Lonzo/Bulls trade. If Markkanen wants to play for the Mavs and Bulls are ready to move on anyway then Mavs can probably get him for just a 2nd round pick. The Bulls would get a pretty good trade exception which could be useful for them later.
Markkanen would probably not start on the Mavs and I think Mavs would try to get a team-friendly deal of some sort. I still would project Powell to be the starter in this situation with Markkanen coming off the bench alongside Maxi.
There is some redundancy with KP of course but in a good way I think. For one KP, will probably get some nights off still which means you have his stand-in ready to go. If Markkanen plays as good or better than KP then it makes it all the easier to dump KP even if the return isn't great.
So in this situation again Mavs stay over the cap, adding Markkanen as a talent/value grab for a player that wants to play with Luka. Mavs would use MLE on a ball0handler I think, with Dragic a leading candidate.
Your main rotation guys are:
Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Green
KP/Maxi
Powell/Markkanen/WCS
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ClutchDirk - 06-13-2021
Id rather have Ball than Markie...forget helping Chicago...go straight for Ball on day 1...
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 09:58 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: Id rather have Ball than Markie...forget helping Chicago...go straight for Ball on day 1...
I'd rather have him too but everything I have read said he wants to go to Chicago.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - BasketballJones41 - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 09:58 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: Id rather have Ball than Markie...forget helping Chicago...go straight for Ball on day 1...I want both.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - RedFlag41 - 06-13-2021
How much would Lonzo Ball command in the free agency market do you think?
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 06-13-2021
(06-13-2021, 09:07 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Let me offer up the idea that Markkanen could be high up the list of B-Z. Bulls do not seem eager to keep him and are laser focused on Lonzo Ball. The Bulls would gladly swap Lauri for Lonzo but it's unclear whether Pels would have any interest. I do believe Lonzo will be mostly headed to Chicago in one way or another.
Chicago has Aminu, Young and Satoransky. All useful players + Coby White to throw at New Orleans in either change for Lonzo into cap space or potentially salary matching. Young and Sato have buyouts in case Chicago has to cut them to clear out space.
Interestingly enough between Markkanen, Sato, Young and Aminu - all of those guys would be good on the Mavs if Chicago is needing to give away players. My guess is that Chicago will be able to include enough of those players in a trade, even if it's a 3 way so that they can operate over the cap. This will allow them to keep guys like Theis.
For the Mavs I think they could probably get Markkanen for almost nothing in a S&T that sends J Rich to a third team, maybe even as part of a multi-team deal that is constructed for the Lonzo/Bulls trade. If Markkanen wants to play for the Mavs and Bulls are ready to move on anyway then Mavs can probably get him for just a 2nd round pick. The Bulls would get a pretty good trade exception which could be useful for them later.
Markkanen would probably not start on the Mavs and I think Mavs would try to get a team-friendly deal of some sort. I still would project Powell to be the starter in this situation with Markkanen coming off the bench alongside Maxi.
There is some redundancy with KP of course but in a good way I think. For one KP, will probably get some nights off still which means you have his stand-in ready to go. If Markkanen plays as good or better than KP then it makes it all the easier to dump KP even if the return isn't great.
So in this situation again Mavs stay over the cap, adding Markkanen as a talent/value grab for a player that wants to play with Luka. Mavs would use MLE on a ball0handler I think, with Dragic a leading candidate.
Your main rotation guys are:
Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Green
KP/Maxi
Powell/Markkanen/WCS
That would be a terribly disappointing off season. This is our last year where we have any room to maneuver and we don't improve the starting lineup at all?
I'm not sure why we would be penciling in Powell as a starter? He rarely started all year and got hardly any minutes in the playoff series. That does not scream starter to me. The 4 spot is definitely our biggest weakness right now.
This team has no chance to contend until we add some legit starters that can play quality defense. We tried last year and failed with JRich, but it is still the highest priority from a long-term standpoint.
If KP gets back to his prior levels of defense, you don't have to have another big at the 4. I think you could add another wing to the starting lineup and DFS and Luka could share 4 duties. Something like KP/DFS/Luka/Ball/THJ would probably work.
If KP's mobility is going to be what it was this year, then he has to go, even if its for air. There is no chance you can have a starting lineup including the version of KP with Luka and THJ that could possibly be good enough defensively. I am leaning towards needing to go this route regardless in the long term. Get a true defensive anchor at the 5 (sign Holmes or trade for Turner or Adams) to go with Luka/DFS/THJ and work with that.