(05-14-2021, 10:17 AM)omahen Wrote: I am not so sure. If you do resign him, you are pretty much locked in the current team, unless you are able to convince someone very good to come for 20 per (max). Or unless you go and start making significant changes to the lineup trading other pieces.

(05-14-2021, 10:04 AM)mvossman Wrote: Yep.  Back in April when THJ was shitting the bed, nobody wanted to keep him, now everyone wants to start him next year.

(05-14-2021, 10:31 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I myself would prefer that route, but everything that has been reported surrounding THJ as a Mav points to him being here for at least his next contract. I think the likelihood that they trade KP to make said changes to the team is much greater based on reporting.


Now, having said that, I think this team might look pretty good replacing THJ and JRich with THT and Holmes (plus other reclamation projects with the remaining money that Donnie is pretty good at finding).

(05-14-2021, 10:39 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I like THT but replacing the best 3-point shooter on the roster with a guy that is sub 30% from 3 and a big without a jumpshot is a terrible idea.

(05-14-2021, 10:17 AM)omahen Wrote: I am not so sure. If you do resign him, you are pretty much locked in the current team, unless you are able to convince someone very good to come for 20 per (max). Or unless you go and start making significant changes to the lineup trading other pieces.

(05-14-2021, 10:48 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: THJ was a confident 31% three shooter before coming here. THT is a confident three shooter. Things change from year to year for players, esp when they’re young.


I did say “might” with “be better” not “would”. Also, I’m not as worried as some of you all are about where the offense comes from. I would also prefer to not rely so much on the 3 shot. I also am hoping that DFS becomes much more consistent with his 3 next year.

(05-14-2021, 10:11 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Ya, the exercise was assuming THJ is resigned and in all honesty, that is by far the highest probability (even higher than keeping KP IMO). I just hope we don’t go big with his salary and I for sure hope we don’t bid against ourselves.

(05-14-2021, 09:44 AM)mvossman Wrote: I find it interesting the perception that JR is killing this team and we need to put THJ in the starting lineup.  The 4 man KP/Luka/DFS/THJ is a net -16 with 131 defensive rating.  That is terrible.  Replace THJ with JR and goes up to +2, and that is weighed down by THJ (KP/Luka/DFS/THJ/JR is -21).  

JR has been disappointing this year on offense and is not what we hoped, but he has been more effective with the starting unit that THJ.  That is likely due to the difference in defense.  Maybe putting Holmes in the starting lineup will mitigate some of that, but I just don't see a KP/Luka/THJ group being able to play contender level defense.

I am all for upgrading JR spot in the starting lineup, but THJ is not the answer and Green isn't either.  We are going to have to get somebody and they are going to cost at least 15.  That means baring trades, we can re-sign THJ or sign Holmes, but not both.

(05-14-2021, 11:18 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Of course THT can improve but I wouldn´t gamble on it. His percentages actually declined compared to his first season. Might as well hope that Josh Green can improve.
 THJ shot 31.7% from in 17/18. in 18/19 he shot 34.7% from 3. 34.4% for his pre Mavs career. Catch and shoot usually in the 36%+ range. It was never about his shooting ability. More about shot selection.

But that doesn´t even matter. The Mavs have one of 15 guys that shoots >39% from 3 on more than 7 attempts. If they lose him they need a replacement that can make up for at least some of it. Spacing has been an issue this season and even though THJ is streaky he is the only guy that other teams guard closely on the perimeter. The Mavs should try to improve the 3-point shooting. Not tank it.

(05-14-2021, 11:27 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Yes, there is a point to limiting the thought exercise.  It lets you go down a rabbit trail to the most likely outcomes.  Then you can evaluate if you like where you end up under a given set of parameters.  Keeping KP and THJ is kind of limiting.  You can use JRich’s space or JRich as a trade asset.  Neither gets you a stud.

If no one is satisfied, then change a variable.  Otherwise, we are just back to posting our favorite ideas, most of which have been written about endlessly.

(05-14-2021, 11:36 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: That's why I said I don't care where the scoring comes from. 

You showed what we lose by not getting at least a similar player to THJ, but aren't talking about what we gain from getting THT. Ball handling and distribution, and high end defense. I want to think that a 20 YO can improve his 3 shot, but if he becomes a newer version of Marcus Smart for our team? I'd prefer that. 

We can use the rMLE on a broken player with their current team to get more 3 shooting if we need it. That or trade for it.

(05-14-2021, 07:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I could make an argument for Green and Dragic, but the age thing is an issue.  I think I'd rather commit four years to the younger guys than even two years to the older guys.  But, to Kamm's point, would you rather keep Powell/WCS as your C's and sign Fournier or Monk as a sixth man?  Or, would you rather go with Holmes/Powell as your C's and go with Green and some guy for the rMLE to back up the 2/3 spot?  

Holmes   Powell
KP          Maxi
DFS        Green
THJ        rMLE
Luka       Brunson

OR

Powell     WCS
KP          Maxi
DFS        Green
THJ        Fournier/Monk
Luka       Brunson

(05-14-2021, 11:45 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Not against a THT signing. I just don´t think he should replace THJ. Perfectly fine with THT instead of Richardson. He has already shown more upside as a playmaker and is at least just as good/bad on defense.
I don´t think the Mavs can afford to go after another big in the 10m + range as longs as KP, Powell, Maxi and WCS are all on the roster. That´s why I am out on Holmes in a no KP trade scenario. Holmes + THT really hurts the spacing and the Mavs would need to make a miracle signing to replace THJs volume/efficiency with the rMLE.

(05-14-2021, 11:35 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The thing we have to be careful about in these four man lineups is we have almost zero groupings where KP and either WCS or Powell are with THJ and the starters.  And, obviously we don’t have any lineups where Holmes is playing with us.  Your point may be spot on.  Or, a real center with KP and DFS “might” make a Luka/THJ backcourt more palatable.  I honestly don’t know.  I lean toward your position that this will be a poor defensive lineup (with Powell or WCS, maybe not with Holmes).  But the Net may actually be pretty good.

(05-14-2021, 07:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 1.  So, I'd eliminate the too expensive guys right off the bat:  Ball, Conley, Lowry, Powell and Schroeder.  I'll put Dipo on this list since he turned down more.  I've seen estimates of $20mm for Powell.  So, assuming Portland wants him, he may be too rich also.  I wil point out that there are a limited number of teams that can send out this kind of money.  But current teams can pay.  So, you are probably looking for someone who has to change teams and isn't so good that the NY's of the world don't want them.  The estimates on DeRozan start in this range and go higher.  Maybe DeRozan?  Many here don't like the fit.  Would he come here to be a 6th man?

(05-14-2021, 07:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 2.  I'd eliminate the guys who are too rich to trade for.  Recall the spirit of the exercise.  No KP deals in this conversation or deals where we create even more holes to fill this one.  So, Brogdon, Smart and LaVine are gone.

(05-14-2021, 07:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 3.  I'd eliminate the guys who aren't clearly better than JRich...the devil you know.  I think you first have to define JRich.  I'd use post AS data.  There, he's a net positive in +/- and on a Per 36 basis he's 14/4/3.25  with a 3% of .364.  He also seems to be a good locker room fit. 

What I'm left with from your excellent work is Fournier and Monk.  I could make an argument for Green and Dragic, but the age thing is an issue.  I think I'd rather commit four years to the younger guys than even two years to the older guys.  But, to Kamm's point, would you rather keep Powell/WCS as your C's and sign Fournier or Monk as a sixth man?  Or, would you rather go with Holmes/Powell as your C's and go with Green and some guy for the rMLE to back up the 2/3 spot?  

(05-14-2021, 11:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: To me Holmes is more of a board fascination than a realistic MBT target. The guys I am looking at are Dinwiddie and Dragic. I don't know that either of those guys require a long-term commitment either. Looking at how J Rich pouts here lately makes me think he's not coming back in any capacity tho a trade possibility is feasible.

If Mavs can't get a ballhandler then I think they would spend their money on another shooter before they would spend more money on bigs honestly. That would be guys like McDermott. There's also the trade market we've discussed - like how hard would it to get Terrance Ross? There may be a couple veteran guys like that the Mavs could look at.

(05-14-2021, 11:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: To me Holmes is more of a board fascination than a realistic MBT target. The guys I am looking at are Dinwiddie and Dragic. I don't know that either of those guys require a long-term commitment either. Looking at how J Rich pouts here lately makes me think he's not coming back in any capacity tho a trade possibility is feasible.

If Mavs can't get a ballhandler then I think they would spend their money on another shooter before they would spend more money on bigs honestly. That would be guys like McDermott. There's also the trade market we've discussed - like how hard would it to get Terrance Ross? There may be a couple veteran guys like that the Mavs could look at.

(05-14-2021, 01:52 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: Go ahead and come at me, but Kemba will be on the Mavs next year.

(05-14-2021, 02:38 PM)mvossman Wrote: Unlikely given he no longer has "star" status (a typical state most "stars" find themselves in after Mavs go hard at them and miss).