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2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 08:15 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Of these two lineups, I myself much prefer the first. Not sure I see Green as a 3 sized wing though. I think Green paired with Brunson could be a great bench pairing to go with what we know is a perfect pairing in Powell and Maxi (I really want to bring back those days!).

FIFY below.

Holmes   Powell
KP          Maxi
DFS        rMLE
THJ        Green
Luka       Brunson

BTW, if you go that route, you are going to need a knock down 3 point shooter for the rMLE to keep Green and Powell on the floor at the same time.  Can't help you with the THJ starting thing.  That is the way the conversation goes when he's on a hot streak and Carlisle is starting him.  Give it some time and we will play a different game...actually, we've been playing that game for months.  Who can we get at SG assuming THJ is still here as a 6th/7th man.


 


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ItsGoTime - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 08:33 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: FIFY below.

Holmes   Powell
KP          Maxi
DFS        rMLE
THJ        Green
Luka       Brunson

BTW, if you go that route, you are going to need a knock down 3 point shooter for the rMLE to keep Green and Powell on the floor at the same time.  Can't help you with the THJ starting thing.  That is the way the conversation goes when he's on a hot streak and Carlisle is starting him.  Give it some time and we will play a different game...actually, we've been playing that game for months.  Who can we get at SG assuming THJ is still here as a 6th/7th man.
In that case the bench unit may need to be the 3 (small) guard lineup that RC loves. Reason I say that is cause I agree with your assessment that we need at least a good 3 shooter for that spot. 


Only 3 sized wing name I can come up with is Batum for that money, and he may want more than the vet min offers he’s most likely gonna get. Other than that, it’s probably the reclamation project barrel we’re looking in and there are more than likely plenty of well 3 shooting guard sized players there.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dirkfansince1998 - 05-14-2021

For me there are two scenarios:

1) If KP stays I would operate over the cap. Resign THJ. Try trade Richardson for something more useful. Use the full MLE and the BAE to add some depth.

2) If the Mavs decide to trade KP. Restructure the roster. Ignoring a potential trade return the Mavs could create 67+m in capspace (decline all options, include Burke in a trade)
That´s enough for THJ 4/62 (starting at 14m), Collins 4/107.5 (starting at 25m), Ball 4/99 (starting at 23m), Theis 3/20 (starting at 6). Still have the rE and the BAE.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ItsGoTime - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 08:33 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: That is the way the conversation goes when he's on a hot streak and Carlisle is starting him.
Also, I agree with you on this. Never liked the seesaw based on recent play. Will probably never understand it.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - HAguiar95 - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 08:33 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: FIFY below.

Holmes   Powell
KP          Maxi
DFS        rMLE
THJ        Green
Luka       Brunson

BTW, if you go that route, you are going to need a knock down 3 point shooter for the rMLE to keep Green and Powell on the floor at the same time.  Can't help you with the THJ starting thing.  That is the way the conversation goes when he's on a hot streak and Carlisle is starting him.  Give it some time and we will play a different game...actually, we've been playing that game for months.  Who can we get at SG assuming THJ is still here as a 6th/7th man.


 

Looking at this lineup made me realize how much of a priority getting a playmaker is compared to a big. No matter how great the Holmes/Collins fit is, they won't have the ball in their hands much. Of that rotation only Luka and JB can handle the rock and facilitate for others (Rich and Timothy can't drive/kick and even though I like the playmaking I've seen from Green, he's too raw to be trusted yet). Also easier to find a trustworthy big for the MLE than a guard. I'd rather live with one of DP/Maxi starting with another playmaker helping Luka than having this lineup and watch Luka go hero mode.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 07:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Holmes   Powell
KP          Maxi
DFS        Green
THJ        rMLE
Luka       Brunson

OR

Powell     WCS
KP          Maxi
DFS        Green
THJ        Fournier/Monk
Luka       Brunson


I think both cases are bad, if I am just brutally honest. I just don't see how we significantly improved our roster. That would be of course fine, if this team makes a deep playoff run. If not, this would be a very bad offseason, imho.

In case 1 you have 20 mil locked in back up bigs, which is more or less a waste of money, imho. I just don't see adding another medium/high prized big as long as KP is on the team. Or Powell/Kleber, if one prefers to dump them. The fourth big should be filled with rMLE level guy at most. As it is now.

In the second case I just don't see how either Monk or Fournier are big upgrades over JRich. Neither of them plays defense. Monk has half of a season sample of playing decent basketball. I will assume we believe that will hold. Still, best case I see that as marginal improvement.

I think if Mavs are not satisfied with current talent level, they should swing for much higher ceiling guys. Either one of top RFA or one of the top vets. With a little bit of creativity we could do even more. I think Green and Brunson should be promoted in guards position.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ClutchDirk - 05-14-2021

https://twitter.com/MavsFansForLife/status/1393046880737693697


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 05-14-2021

(05-13-2021, 11:18 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Yes, assuming KP stays, then...

1) you roll out RH/KP/DFS/THJ/Luka as your starters.

2) you replace JR with JG....easily IMO, because I think JR is the easiest replacement as he has been a disaster of a fit in regard to on court winning.

Agree with Kamm on these points. I think we could replace J Rich with a traffic cone, at least in the regular season. I believe he has another gear that he can get to in the playoffs so hopefully that will come in handy.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 09:22 AM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://twitter.com/MavsFansForLife/status/1393046880737693697

If we need to have him take a roster spot to be Luka's friend I can live with that so long as its vet min.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 09:09 AM)HAguiar95 Wrote: Looking at this lineup made me realize how much of a priority getting a playmaker is compared to a big. No matter how great the Holmes/Collins fit is, they won't have the ball in their hands much.


Agree. Although I wouldn't say no to top end talent like Collins if we can get him. Figure the rest later. 

Adding top secondary ballhandler becomes problematic if we lose THJ or not. I f we lose him, we will certainly miss his shooting. If we somehow manage to keep him, it will get crowded on guard spots if we want to boost Green minutes at least a little bit. Unless we move DFS minutes much more to the PF position. Option is also to trade Green.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 05-14-2021

(05-13-2021, 11:18 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Yes, assuming KP stays, then...

1) you roll out RH/KP/DFS/THJ/Luka as your starters.

2) you replace JR with JG....easily IMO, because I think JR is the easiest replacement as he has been a disaster of a fit in regard to on court winning

I find it interesting the perception that JR is killing this team and we need to put THJ in the starting lineup.  The 4 man KP/Luka/DFS/THJ is a net -16 with 131 defensive rating.  That is terrible.  Replace THJ with JR and goes up to +2, and that is weighed down by THJ (KP/Luka/DFS/THJ/JR is -21).  

JR has been disappointing this year on offense and is not what we hoped, but he has been more effective with the starting unit that THJ.  That is likely due to the difference in defense.  Maybe putting Holmes in the starting lineup will mitigate some of that, but I just don't see a KP/Luka/THJ group being able to play contender level defense.

I am all for upgrading JR spot in the starting lineup, but THJ is not the answer and Green isn't either.  We are going to have to get somebody and they are going to cost at least 15.  That means baring trades, we can re-sign THJ or sign Holmes, but not both.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 09:37 AM)omahen Wrote: Agree. Although I wouldn't say no to top end talent like Collins if we can get him. Figure the rest later. 

Adding top secondary ballhandler becomes problematic if we lose THJ or not. I f we lose him, we will certainly miss his shooting. If we somehow manage to keep him, it will get crowded on guard spots if we want to boost Green minutes at least a little bit. Unless we move DFS minutes much more to the PF position. Option is also to trade Green.

For me its hard to picture any scenario that does not include THJ returning. I think the plan will be to try to add another ball-handler as you say and retain THJ which is certainly doable. As much as folks like RH I think ball-handler is higher priority.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 09:44 AM)mvossman Wrote: I find it interesting the perception that JR is killing this team and we need to put THJ in the starting lineup.  The 4 man KP/Luka/DFS/THJ is a net -16 with 131 defensive rating.  That is terrible.  Replace THJ with JR and goes up to +2, and that is weighed down by THJ (KP/Luka/DFS/THJ/JR is -21).  

JR has been disappointing this year on offense and is not what we hoped, but he has been more effective with the starting unit that THJ.  That is likely due to the difference in defense.  Maybe putting Holmes in the starting lineup will mitigate some of that, but I just don't see a KP/Luka/THJ group being able to play contender level defense.

I am all for upgrading JR spot in the starting lineup, but THJ is not the answer and Green isn't either.  We are going to have to get somebody and they are going to cost at least 15.  That means baring trades, we can re-sign THJ or sign Holmes, but not both.


Very well written imho. THJ works well with starters when we lack offense from the rest. If we have Luka and KP with him it just seems there are not enough shots to go around between the three of them. You can see that all lineups (focusing on at least 30 minutes samples) featuring Luka, KP and THJ are more or less bad, most of them very bad. The best one is with Kleber and JRich with +8 net rating. Even offense is not great when the three of them are together.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 07:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: First, thanks for playing along.  If you stick with the spirit of the conversation, then yes on trades (with JRich as part of the outgoing) and FA's making at or under bout $17mm.  I'm not really looking to add too many variables as we talk about those kinds of things all the time.

1.  So, I'd eliminate the too expensive guys right off the bat:  Ball, Conley, Lowry, Powell and Schroeder.  I'll put Dipo on this list since he turned down more.  I've seen estimates of $20mm for Powell.  So, assuming Portland wants him, he may be too rich also.  I wil point out that there are a limited number of teams that can send out this kind of money.  But current teams can pay.  So, you are probably looking for someone who has to change teams and isn't so good that the NY's of the world don't want them.  The estimates on DeRozan start in this range and go higher.  Maybe DeRozan?  Many here don't like the fit.  Would he come here to be a 6th man?

2.  I'd eliminate the guys who are too rich to trade for.  Recall the spirit of the exercise.  No KP deals in this conversation or deals where we create even more holes to fill this one.  So, Brogdon, Smart and LaVine are gone.

3.  I'd eliminate the guys who aren't clearly better than JRich...the devil you know.  I think you first have to define JRich.  I'd use post AS data.  There, he's a net positive in +/- and on a Per 36 basis he's 14/4/3.25  with a 3% of .364.  He also seems to be a good locker room fit. 

What I'm left with from your excellent work is Fournier and Monk.  I could make an argument for Green and Dragic, but the age thing is an issue.  I think I'd rather commit four years to the younger guys than even two years to the older guys.  But, to Kamm's point, would you rather keep Powell/WCS as your C's and sign Fournier or Monk as a sixth man?  Or, would you rather go with Holmes/Powell as your C's and go with Green and some guy for the rMLE to back up the 2/3 spot?  

Holmes   Powell
KP          Maxi
DFS        Green
THJ        rMLE
Luka       Brunson

OR

Powell     WCS
KP          Maxi
DFS        Green
THJ        Fournier/Monk
Luka       Brunson

THJ is an awkward fit with the starting group due to his defensive concerns, so it would be strange to go sign a THJ clone in Fournier/Monk as our big off season acquisition.  That would be wildly disappointing.

A name that did not show up on the list that I think would make way more sense as a JRich replacement/upgrade is Devonte Graham.  He shoots the three well at a very high volume, is very good distributor, and can play defense against opposing point guards.  

Graham, actually makes THJ expendable so if you can land him you can spend the rest on THJ or Holmes.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 08:56 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Also, I agree with you on this. Never liked the seesaw based on recent play. Will probably never understand it.

Yep.  Back in April when THJ was shitting the bed, nobody wanted to keep him, now everyone wants to start him next year.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 10:04 AM)mvossman Wrote: Back in April when THJ was s******g the bed, nobody wanted to keep him.


[Image: giphy.gif]


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ItsGoTime - 05-14-2021

Ya, the exercise was assuming THJ is resigned and in all honesty, that is by far the highest probability (even higher than keeping KP IMO). I just hope we don’t go big with his salary and I for sure hope we don’t bid against ourselves.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 10:11 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I just hope we don’t go big with his salary and I for sure hope we don’t bid against ourselves.


I share those hopes, my dude. Those are good hopes.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ItsGoTime - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 10:04 AM)mvossman Wrote: Yep.  Back in April when THJ was shitting the bed, nobody wanted to keep him, now everyone wants to start him next year.
My want for him at a $12M price as a bench player is really high. That want goes down for each $1M added to that. My want for him goes away if he’s the best option for a starter next year.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 05-14-2021

(05-14-2021, 10:11 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Ya, the exercise was assuming THJ is resigned and in all honesty, that is by far the highest probability (even higher than keeping KP IMO).


I am not so sure. If you do resign him, you are pretty much locked in the current team, unless you are able to convince someone very good to come for 20 per (max). Or unless you go and start making significant changes to the lineup trading other pieces.