(04-28-2021, 08:47 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: I think you could bench J Rich the rest of the season and not really notice. THJ comes and goes but is replaceable.

(04-28-2021, 08:52 AM)Mavs03 Wrote: Norman Powell

(04-28-2021, 07:11 AM)omahen Wrote: Of course I have to say something  

I have a really hard time accepting the fact that 18 mm tied up in reserves is acceptable and a sign of a successful summer. If you sign Holmes for 14 mil, it leaves you 20 mil. Not enough for top guard options CP3, Lowry, Conley, DeRozan, Ball). Is everything else like Graham, Powell, Fournier or Schroeder really that much better than THJ/JRich combo? Let me compare two offseason scenarios - "run it back" and "Holmes". 

With run it back you basically keep whole team and add full MLE and BaE. Let's say Reddick and Melli are gone to free roster spots. You can also say goodbye to Bobi or keep Bey on two way contract. I guess a bench MLE shooter and bench PF/C would be biggest missing links. Final line-up:

Luka, Brunson, Terry
JRich, THJ, Burke
DFS, MLE, Green
KP, Maxi, Bey
Powell, WCS, BaE

In the Holmes scenario you operate under the cap. Let's say you sign Holmes and Graham, which is a popular choice. For that you are losing THJ, JRich and WCS in addition to Reddick and Melli (and Boban). You have rMLE and BaE to fill the holes. Line-up would be:

Luka, Brunson, Terry
Graham, Burke
DFS, Green, rMLE
KP, Maxi, Bey
Holmes, Powell, WCS (let's say you bring him for exception money)

Can someone say with certainty that lineup in the Holmes scenario is any better than lineup in the run it back? Better at C but almost certainly worse on guard/wing spot. Offseason like this would be very dissapointing for me. 

This leads us to moving Powell. Assets attached, of course, I am not delusional someone will offer value for him alone. We can use him in a SnT move for Holmes, which would leave us cap space for top end guard. We can dump him and create enough cap space for Holmes and top guard this way. Or we can trade him for a wing behind DFS/Graham.

If I have to guess, I think Mavs will go after top end guy first, either one of the guards or Collins. Holmes doesn't fit unless a trade/dump is made.

(04-28-2021, 08:40 AM)Kammrath Wrote: I think you are overvaluing THJ and JR by quite a lot. I think replacing them (especially JR) should be quite easy with $20M in space IMO.

I also think you are undervaluing how much of an upgrade RH is and how much the Mavs frontcourt needs an infusion of pick and roll offense and good defense.

(04-28-2021, 09:14 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Are you saying we'd have 20M after signing Holmes in this scenario?

(04-28-2021, 09:18 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Side note, it was good to see the kids get some burn last night but I do hope that watching those kids run around like chickens with their heads cut off will quiet the "RICK NEEDS TO PLAY THE ROOKIES" crowd a bit.  It's going to take some time for all of them.  I love the potential that Tyler Bey has but man he was bad on defense last night, constantly ball watching and getting stuck behind screens.

(04-28-2021, 09:18 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: I love the potential that Tyler Bey has but man he was bad on defense last night, constantly ball watching and getting stuck behind screens.

(04-28-2021, 09:19 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Some were suggesting that the Mavs (if JR opts out and have $34M in space) could sign RH for ~$14M and still have ~$20M to work with. I was just going with that for simplicity.

I think $15M is a good number for guessing RH's value (though I would consider up to $20M I think). 

But there are so many moving parts to what the Mavs might do as well. For one, if I get RH I would try to trade DP and retain WCS. And those kind of scenarios just domino effect change everything about how you build the rest of the roster.

(04-28-2021, 09:21 AM)Kammrath Wrote: But the dude was asked to play the 5 at Colorado, so this is a whole world change for him.

(04-28-2021, 09:21 AM)Kammrath Wrote: He is adjusting to not being a ball-watching, help side defense big man, to being a wing who has to stay glued to his man. I believe in him and think when the "wing" light bulb goes on for him he will be a solid rotation player if not a starter one day. But the dude was asked to play the 5 at Colorado, so this is a whole world change for him.

(04-28-2021, 09:25 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: I still think Carlisle looks at him and thinks "Dwight Powell replacement." 

I think he could be be a 3, someday, but it would take a whiiiiile. No reason he can't develop enough as a small ball big (something every team needs these days) in the meantime to carve some minutes out for himself.

(04-28-2021, 09:30 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Potentially, but he's teetering on the edge of being too small to play the 5 at all at this level.  I think it's wing or bust for him so it will take more time but he has the potential to basically guard 1-4 and certain 5s if he can figure it out so I'm rooting for him.  Totally agree it will take a lot of time for him to adjust to it but I think that's really his only option for a long career.  I see him in Frisco all next year, he needs a ton of minutes since the concepts are all brand new.

(04-28-2021, 09:30 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Potentially, but he's teetering on the edge of being too small to play the 5 at all at this level.

(04-28-2021, 09:26 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Oh I believe in him too, it's just clear he's not ready yet.  Seeing him hit a three for me was honestly very promising because I'm more worried about that aspect of him transforming into a wing than the defense.  I live up here in Boulder so got to see a lot of him in college and I agree, it's night and day compared to his role at CU so he's going to have to adjust but he has the tools physically.

(04-28-2021, 09:34 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Well, I think he could play the 5 in extreme situations, but I mostly meant the 4, which, as others have said, is his most natural position. 

I agree that 6'6" isn't ideal there, either, but smaller guys have succeeded. I have an easier time envisioning him using foot speed and vertical spacing to his advantage at the 4 than I do imagining that he develops the handles and pull-up game of a 3 in this system. I'm not betting against the latter, but I think it's a fairly long term project, which is why he was a second rounder. 

In the relatively short-term, I think he could play the 4 better than DFS, for example.

EDIT: Defensively, Bey at the 4 allows you to do some good things with switching, because he's going to be able to guard 3's sooner than he'll be able to play the 3. Can you imagine Bey and DFS as the forwards with a good defensive 5??? Heart-eyes-emoji, tbh.

(04-28-2021, 07:11 AM)omahen Wrote: In the Holmes scenario you operate under the cap. Let's say you sign Holmes and Graham, which is a popular choice. For that you are losing THJ, JRich and WCS in addition to Reddick and Melli (and Boban).

.......

This leads us to moving Powell. .... We can use him in a SnT move for Holmes, which would leave us cap space for top end guard.

(04-28-2021, 09:41 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: That is a fair take.   He is a little older for your normal rookie though at 23 years of age.  For me, his future depends on being able to defend on the perimeter and fill in the edges on offense as a guy who makes things happen without having plays run for him.

As a guy who watched Bey in college, do you think he can be a very good perimeter defender in time?   He was billed as a very good defender in college, but Sam Veccine of the Athletic prior to the draft was very low on Bey and thought his PAC 12 defensive player of the year award was a poor choice.   I want to see much more of these rookies but with limited chances to see him, I do worry about how he is going to defend wings.

(04-28-2021, 09:52 AM)F Gump Wrote: The most efficient move is to persuade Holmes to sign, and then persuade Kings to do a SNT using Powell.

That not only helps the payroll, it also leaves the door open for:
a - operating OVER the cap,
b - keeping WCS on his very cost-efficient deal, and
c - being able to sign both J-Rich/THJ or alternately to use one or both of them as outgoing SNT assets to land someone else.

That's a lot of superior negotiating to do, but none of it is beyond the realm of top NBA front offices.

The biggest snag is that those moves require the Mavs to exhibit superior expertise at negotiating and at NBA cap craftsmanship. Unfortunately Cuban and his group have never been very slick at any of that, when it gets to anything beyond money-whipping an agent.