(04-24-2021, 11:11 PM)Branduil Wrote: This team is clearly worse talent-wise when missing KP and yet clearly has far better chemistry.

This offseason will be the time to trade KP for a playmaker and add a rim-runner big man.

(04-25-2021, 12:05 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I'm not ready to give up on DP/KP as starters just because Powell had a great night with KP out.  Powell is the best perimeter defender and has the best team defense numbers of any of the alternatives.  We know DFS at PF is MUCH less effective defensively than DFS at SF (D-Rating is 10 points better at 106 when DFS is at SF).  When KP and Maxi are on the floor together, the D-Rating is 108.2 (and 100 in limited minutes with WCS).  The logical extension is KP/DP should be just as good defensively if not better.  And, this is backed up by the 500 minutes they played together last season with a D-Rating of 105.3

The worry we hear is KP/DP can't work offensively or that it diminishes the value of KP or it keeps Luka/KP from working the two-man game together.  We know the first isn't true.  All we have to do is look at the early part of last season.  The KP/DP experiment just started, for the current season, but we scored 115 and 127 in two games KP had 19 in each.  So, let's focus on the other two concerns.  

I've never bought the idea that KP/DP can't work offensively.  KP has great 3Pt Gravity and DP has great Roll Gravity.  The team has been diversifying KP's attack to the great benefit of his TS% this season (by far best in career).  He can post (and pass out of the post), he's above average at ISO.  His Total Perimeter Shooting Impact is in the 96th percentile.  His O-Lebron, O-Raptor and O-BPM are all in the 90th-plus percentile.  Surely we can find something for him to do next to Powell.

(04-24-2021, 10:28 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I just don't believe they are holding back from practicing and refining what needs to be their bread and butter.

(04-25-2021, 12:41 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Right I am just saying they have been trying to limit wear and tear in KP. I expect him to be unleashed in the playoffs.

And with Powell starting know KP doesn't need to do as many rolls anyway.

I honestly don't think the Mavs need to do a lot with the big rotation unless they have an opportunity to land Collins. Their appetite for him might wane anyway if our frontcourt looks good to close the season.

I see KP, Maxi, Powell as your base with vet min Melli and an rMLE play to round out the rotation. Hopefully we could find a player there that compliments the group better than Bobo and WCS do.

That would leave all of the Mavs dollars to spend on playmaking, shooting and scoring at the guard/forward positions.

(04-25-2021, 12:23 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Based on all of KP's comments from earlier this season, I'd say he's the one who needs to be convinced. Most of the smart people here have been on board with this since last season, in part due to your excellent writing about it. 

Speculation here, but I think Carlisle's "everything is on the table" comment from last week might've had something to do with KP's wishes. Something like "we tried it your way, but it's not working."

(04-25-2021, 12:05 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I'm not ready to give up on DP/KP as starters just because Powell had a great night with KP out.  Powell is the best perimeter defender and has the best team defense numbers of any of the alternatives.  We know DFS at PF is MUCH less effective defensively than DFS at SF (D-Rating is 10 points better at 106 when DFS is at SF).  When KP and Maxi are on the floor together, the D-Rating is 108.2 (and 100 in limited minutes with WCS).  The logical extension is KP/DP should be just as good defensively if not better.  And, this is backed up by the 500 minutes they played together last season with a D-Rating of 105.3

(04-25-2021, 12:05 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: In fairness, the team seems to have less talent and good chemistry when Luka sits also.  The ball certainly moves more.

I'm not ready to give up on DP/KP as starters just because Powell had a great night with KP out.  Powell is the best perimeter defender and has the best team defense numbers of any of the alternatives.  We know DFS at PF is MUCH less effective defensively than DFS at SF (D-Rating is 10 points better at 106 when DFS is at SF).  When KP and Maxi are on the floor together, the D-Rating is 108.2 (and 100 in limited minutes with WCS).  The logical extension is KP/DP should be just as good defensively if not better.  And, this is backed up by the 500 minutes they played together last season with a D-Rating of 105.3

The worry we hear is KP/DP can't work offensively or that it diminishes the value of KP or it keeps Luka/KP from working the two-man game together.  We know the first isn't true.  All we have to do is look at the early part of last season.  The KP/DP experiment just started, for the current season, but we scored 115 and 127 in two games KP had 19 in each.  So, let's focus on the other two concerns.  

I've never bought the idea that KP/DP can't work offensively.  KP has great 3Pt Gravity and DP has great Roll Gravity.  The team has been diversifying KP's attack to the great benefit of his TS% this season (by far best in career).  He can post (and pass out of the post), he's above average at ISO.  His Total Perimeter Shooting Impact is in the 96th percentile.  His O-Lebron, O-Raptor and O-BPM are all in the 90th-plus percentile.  Surely we can find something for him to do next to Powell.

Here is what is interesting.  KP's total Roll Man Impact is the same as Powell's.  In other words, KP is great the few times he actually rolls.  But, he doesn't do it very much (and I envision another injury every time he does).  Instead, he tends to pop and slip and the truth is he's below average at that.  He's in the 46th percentile as a pick and pop guy and the 17th percentile when he slips the pick.  I know, it makes no sense.   Also, he's much worse than Powell at Screen assists (Powell is in the 99th percentile and KP is in the 47th).  So, why exactly do we want to run the Luka/KP two man game instead of the Luka/Powell two man game?  And, can we really blame Luka/Carlisle for not doing more of this.

There are two questions that I hope will be answered in the next dozen games or so.  I'm pretty confident we can find "Team-Success" with KP and DP starting together.  What I'd like to see is KP-Success also (which isn't necessarily the same).  If it works out we get both (and I put some of this on Carlisle), then great.  We have at least three of the four-plus bigs we need (BTW, I'm not opposed to Holmes/DP as the 48 minutes Center rotation).  But, if KP continues to struggle individually and Powell continues to impress, then I'll get back into fantasy trade mode including KP-based deals.

(04-25-2021, 02:17 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think we can all agree that the team has a higher offensive ceiling with KP on the floor but personally I think the defensive ceiling is much higher without him.
Doesn´t even matter who replaces him as long as the Mavs aren´t going small (DFS, Green or Doncic playing PF).

Sample sizes without KP are really small but...

Powell-Melli: 88.2 D-Rating in 81 minutes
Powell-Kleber: 99.8 D-Rating in 249 minutes
WCS-Kleber: 101.9 D-Rating in 180 minutes

Without KP the Mavs can play a modern switch heavy defense. They can hide individual weaknesses on the perimeter with switches and rotations. This is a matter of scheme and coaching preferences.
Continue to build around KP as a more traditional rim protecting big. Play more drop defense in the pick and roll. Less switches. Less rotations. That approach would require some major upgrades on the perimeter. Not to mention that KP himself needs to get back to his pre injury level on defense.
Or move on and focus on the switch heavy scheme. Add fitting pieces that can offer both perimeter defense and rim protection.