(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Was just about to post the on/off stat.  He was 22 that one season when he was positive.  It is kind of shocking considering how good he’s been over the years at WS and VORP.

I think you have to look at the UFA guards together as a group if you assume Dallas would be interested in one.  Here, I’m mainly talking about DeRozan, Fournier and N. Powell.  All are similar in terms of Usage (mid-20’s).  DeRozan and Fournier have Assist %’s in the 30’s and a 2/1 Assist % to TO% ratio.  Powell is not a distributor, but he is a GREAT three point shooter.  Powell hasn’t been anything special in terms of On/Off, but Fournier has been positive most seasons.  You wouldn’t call any of them a defender.  The average DWS’s and DBPM’s for each for their career’s are:  Fournier (1.13, -0.8), DeRozan (1.73, -0.8) and Powell (1.35, 0.1).  For reference, JRich is 2.0 and 0.4.  Someone who really is a great defender, like Marcus Smart is 2.37 and 1.2.  20 year old THT is 1.7 and 1.4...did I mention he was only 20?  He has an Assist % of 19 (but TO’s are high) and as of now shoots 3’s worse than DeRozan (though he shows signs of being able to post a good TS% like DeRozan does).

I personally think Fournier is the better fit among Powell, DeRozan and Fournier.  Recall that we tried to trade for both Fournier and Powell and might have had Fournier if not for the Boston TPE.  Fournier isn’t starting in Boston, so I’m not sure his Bird rights mean much there.  Fournier is basically Hardaway with handles, something we could use.  But, I suspect you have to start him to get him and to justify the money he will command.  If you start him in place of JRich, you’ve solved two issues (3’s and playmaking) and created another (point of attack D).  But, to get that, you have to look at RFA’s like Lonzo and THT.  Rock meet hard place.

(04-11-2021, 10:12 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: I am willing to see what this looks like in the playoffs. I just worry ab relying on any of these guys to hit important shots in a tough playoff game. I trust Luka of course and I can live with KP. After that it's hard to depend on Maxi, Rich, DFS for a lot of offense.

Again there are so many options/directions the Mavs could go. I think ab DeRozan sort of like I thought of Monta Ellis (who ended up being much cheaper that whatever DR will demand). Every time I watched the Mavs play Ellis he was such a handful. He was not a great fit either at the time bc he was too small and could not hit 3's. That being said the best Mavs team up until the Luka era was that Ellis/Dirk team that took the Spurs to 7 games. Ellis was just a really good basketball player.

(04-11-2021, 04:17 AM)omahen Wrote: I don't think it is that simple, you have to take a bit longer outlook. Let's assume this team as they currently are, is not at contender level and they need a talent upgrade. Let's assume the ceiling of this team is relatively low. This means you will have to upgrade at some point and there are basically two ways to do it. FA (in 2021) or trades from there on. I will neglect draft as a serious option as our picks are relatively rare and most likely won't be very high to count on serious talent upgrade this way. Realistically best we can hope for are rotation players. 

In the FA scenario you lose some of the floor (THJ, JRich) we have. I won't mention Melli, Boban or WCS because I think they are vet min guys and you can always sign those, no matter the scenario. However, the FA scenario gives you the option to raise the ceiling of the team by adding some high level talent. There are of course risks associated with this scenario - will you actually be able to convince the talent to come, will moves actually work and will (if you bring young players) they actually develop. This scenario might also leave you draft assets to play with in the future. 

In the trade scenario you keep the team and aim to improve with trade, using your floor guys and assets to trade for higher floor and ceiling guys. There are of course risks associated with this too. Mavs were not able to cash on Lee expiring at last TDL, made just a minor trade in the offseason and again wasn't able to pull anything special at this TDL. Even if the trade happens there are also risks if it will actually work. Not everyone is convinced JRich-Curry trade was a good decision. Myself not being one of them. Trade scenario will also cost draft assets of course, limiting options for cheap (good) rotation  players.

I hope playoffs will show us a better picture how high ceiling this team actually has. Regular season so far has been littered with disturbances (injuries, Covid,...) that make the picture blurry. Based on that Mavs might be able to decide what makes more sense - let go of a couple of guys to raise a ceiling of the team with talent or go for continuation with current core with just slight moves around the edges. Before than, I am open to all possibilities.

(04-11-2021, 10:23 AM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://heatnation.com/rumors/report-victor-oladipo-increasingly-unlikely-to-receive-anything-near-maximum-deal-this-offseason/

(04-11-2021, 11:16 AM)mvossman Wrote: If we determine the ceiling is low on the current team, the goal would be to collect the most assets we can this off season.  The question is which route is better to take, over the cap (trades) or under the cap (FA).  Over the cap generally has an advantage because you can spend more money.  Wading into FA (which has never been this organizations strength) with the intention of improving the ceiling with less money is a difficult thing to do.  It is also risky, especially if you plan on making an RFA offer sheet.  There is a significant danger of ending with less assets.  The reality is, quality NBA players are assets, even on moderately overpriced contracts.  Those contracts are also good for salary matching in later trades once we actually have some firsts to trade.  I'm not saying we should not explore the FA route, just that it will be difficult to improve status quo plus MLE, and if our ceiling is low, asset acquisition should be the focus.

(04-11-2021, 09:53 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: @"cow" ...another victim!

(04-11-2021, 11:33 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Just saying I would much rather have Dipo than JRich and if they both are going to cost around the same money then the Mavs should be ALL in on trying to get him.

(04-11-2021, 11:53 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: Dragic if he is let loose with Lowry headed to Heat.

(04-11-2021, 11:53 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: Dipo on a 1 yr prove it deal is interesting. Heat might get Lowry. I also like Dragic if he is let loose with Lowry headed to Heat.

(04-11-2021, 12:02 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: A Luka Dragic pairing has proven to be successful before...

(04-11-2021, 12:33 PM)omahen Wrote: Dipo will not sign a prove it deal with Dallas... If he falls that low, he will sign it with one of the contenders.




I think Dragic loves it in Miami

(04-11-2021, 12:33 PM)omahen Wrote: Dipo will not sign a prove it deal with Dallas... If he falls that low, he will sign it with one of the contenders.

(04-11-2021, 01:24 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: "Best ability is availibility"

Games missed this season:

THJ: 2
Richardson: 10 (only one non COVID related)
Oladipo: 19 (out right now)

At this point I am out on Oladipo. Even more injury-prone than KP. Not to mention that he hasn´t been close to his best level in the last two years. THJ an JRich aren´t worldbeaters but they are more reliable and cheaper.

(04-11-2021, 09:53 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: @"cow" ...another victim!