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+--- Thread: 2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived (/showthread.php?tid=682)
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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 12:13 PM)mvossman Wrote: Brunson is not an option to fill JRich role as a quality guard defender. He is a poor defender and I don't see that changing. I would argue that a team that has asperations to be good defensively (and they need to be in order to truly contend) needs to have at least one quality guard defender who is not a disaster offensively. There is hope that Green can eventually get there, but it is unlikely to be anytime soon.
As for Brunson's role, they have already promoted him. He is the 6th man that leads the second unit and finishes with the starters. We will see how that plays out long term, but not sure why his role needs to be expanded beyond that? We don't have anyone else that can lead the second unit or create their own shot to take some pressure off Luka, so if you are going to trade him you need to replace that.
It's hard to find a guy you can start that is a real two-way player. Danny Green could be an option. Terrence Ross is a guy that might not be too hard to get. He can be streaky from 3 too but I also think his contract is a good number. There's obv the big names like CP3, Conley, Lowry that could be hard to get. One buy-low name is Rubio who is a ball mover and good defender that would be easy to get.
It's hard to find 2-way guys that can start so you might have to just lean into BPA and look more at like a DeRozan who would be a big talent upgrade at least. There are various 2-way guys available that are bench-worthy but its hard to find one that you can start.
Tony Snell is on fire from 3. This is a guy who I want every year as a guy that's under-appreciated. He is a UFA. Pretty much just a catch-and-shoot guy but that's better than J Rich who is hampering this offense.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - michaeltex - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 12:34 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: When is the last time the Mavs traded for a young player? The Devin Harris pick?
.
Technically, Young for Luka?
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Jason Terry - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 12:36 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: It's hard to find a guy you can start that is a real two-way player. Danny Green could be an option. Terrence Ross is a guy that might not be too hard to get. He can be streaky from 3 too but I also think his contract is a good number. There's obv the big names like CP3, Conley, Lowry that could be hard to get. One buy-low name is Rubio who is a ball mover and good defender that would be easy to get.Rubio and DeRozan shoot the 3 at 29% and 28%. They make J Rich look like Ray Allen. Neither are great defenders either IMO. The real upgrades are CP3/Conley/Lowry and it’s unlikely they are an option
It's hard to find 2-way guys that can start so you might have to just lean into BPA and look more at like a DeRozan who would be a big talent upgrade at least. There are various 2-way guys available that are bench-worthy but its hard to find one that you can start.
Tony Snell is on fire from 3. This is a guy who I want every year as a guy that's under-appreciated. He is a UFA. Pretty much just a catch-and-shoot guy but that's better than J Rich who is hampering this offense.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - mvossman - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 01:05 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: Rubio and DeRozan shoot the 3 at 29% and 28%. They make J Rich look like Ray Allen. Neither are great defenders either IMO. The real upgrades are CP3/Conley/Lowry and it’s unlikely they are an option
Totally agree. The other guy you could put on that list is Ball, but I don't see them getting him either.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - HanspardShowerVoice - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 12:34 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: When is the last time the Mavs traded for a young player?
Kristaps Porzingis?
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 12:58 PM)michaeltex Wrote: Technically, Young for Luka?
Seth for JRich too
Plus we got a pick
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - michaeltex - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 01:26 PM)HanspardShowerVoice Wrote: Kristaps Porzingis?
I stand corrected, sir!
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Kammrath - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 12:13 PM)mvossman Wrote: Brunson is not an option to fill JRich role as a quality guard defender.
I 100% disagree with this. I think JB is a better defender than JR.
JR is more switchable with his size which is nice, but I would take JB as a defender 10 times out of 10 times and figure out ways to help JB when he has a big on him in the post.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Mavs2021 - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 01:26 PM)HanspardShowerVoice Wrote: Kristaps Porzingis?
Fair enough, though technically they traded DSJ and a couple of future picks, so even in that trade they got older.
Though you probably have to look at it from a different standpoint. When have they ever traded for a younger player, when in a contending win now situation? The Mavs strategy has always been veteran based and putting the best possible team on the floor next season, unless they were so talent-screwed that they had no other choice, but to execute some sad tanking attempts.
I don´t judge either. I´m just saying what is the likelihood the Mavs are willing to sacrifice the whole next season by trading Porzingis for Wiseman+Wiggins+Minny pick?
Adrian Griffin Jr. is in the next draft.
I´m getting
![[Image: stock-photo-senior-mature-adult-grandpa-...b7550d.jpg]](https://res.cloudinary.com/twenty20/private_images/t_watermark-criss-cross-10/v1491586343000/photosp/c9035b01-7f9c-45eb-bc9b-73d818b7550d/stock-photo-senior-mature-adult-grandpa-grandparent-87-years-old-c9035b01-7f9c-45eb-bc9b-73d818b7550d.jpg)
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - mvossman - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 01:48 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I 100% disagree with this. I think JB is a better defender than JR.
JR is more switchable with his size which is nice, but I would take JB as a defender 10 times out of 10 times and figure out ways to help JB when he has a big on him in the post.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this. Every advanced stat and my eye test (which is clearly different than yours) disagrees with you on this one. I would suggest that Rick maybe disagrees with you as well seeing how JB clearly is better offensively than JR and yet JR keeps starting (and getting more minutes), presumably due to his work on the defensive side of the ball.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Kammrath - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 02:07 PM)mvossman Wrote: Every advanced stat and my eye test (which is clearly different than yours) disagrees with you on this one
So that's just not even true. Let's take a look:
Defensive On/Off...
JB: +4.1
JR: -4.1
Defensive RAPTOR...
JB: +0.3
JR: -0.6
DRPM...
JB: -0.13
JR: +0.04
Synergy Pick and Roll Ball Handler D...
JB: 0.94 PPP
JR: 1.07 PPP
Synergy Pick and Roll Roll-Man D...
JB: 0.55 PPP
JR: 0.91 PPP
Synergy Isolation D...
JB: 0.95 PPP
JR: 0.92 PPP
Synergy Spot Up D...
JB: 1.14 PPP
JR: 1.22 PPP
Synergy Off Screen D...
JB: 1.00 PPP
JR: 1.03 PPP
The only metrics where JR is better than JB is DRPM (which had its formula changed and is not as trust worthy in many eyes) and a slight advantage in Isolation D. Otherwise JB is across the board the better defender this year.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - mvossman - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 02:47 PM)Kammrath Wrote: So that's just not even true. Let's take a look:
Defensive On/Off...
JB: +4.1
JR: -4.1
Defensive RAPTOR...
JB: +0.3
JR: -0.6
DRPM...
JB: -0.13
JR: +0.04
Synergy Pick and Roll Ball Handler D...
JB: 0.94 PPP
JR: 1.07 PPP
Synergy Pick and Roll Roll-Man D...
JB: 0.55 PPP
JR: 0.91 PPP
Synergy Isolation D...
JB: 0.95 PPP
JR: 0.92 PPP
Synergy Spot Up D...
JB: 1.14 PPP
JR: 1.22 PPP
Synergy Off Screen D...
JB: 1.00 PPP
JR: 1.03 PPP
The only metrics where JR is better than JB is DRPM (which had its formula changed and is not as trust worthy in many eyes) and a slight advantage in Isolation D. Otherwise JB is across the board the better defender this year.
The difference between DRPM and the metrics your using is that it includes context like the other players on the court. JR is generally playing against much better competition who start vs JB. Also, I am guessing you are just looking at this year, which is a fairly small sample and muddied by the whole Covid thing. I find that its difficult to assess player defense with stats and you need a particularly big sample (like multiple years) to get a decent picture. Both DRPM and VORP suggest JR is significantly better over the longer haul.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - HAguiar95 - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 02:47 PM)Kammrath Wrote: The only metrics where JR is better than JB is DRPM (which had its formula changed and is not as trust worthy in many eyes) and a slight advantage in Isolation D. Otherwise JB is across the board the better defender this year.
Does this take into account matchups? i'm pretty sure J-Rich gets the hardest (or 2nd most to DFS). Don't get me wrong, both are slight negatives on D (compared to THJ/Burke, that are big negatives on D), but saying JB is the better defender is at least odd.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 01:16 PM)mvossman Wrote: Totally agree. The other guy you could put on that list is Ball, but I don't see them getting him either.
Rubio and Derozan have other offensive skills, especially Derozan. Derozan would also be pricey.
My issue with J Rich is that I am not impressed by his defense and his offense is ridiculous.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - HanspardShowerVoice - 04-09-2021
I feel like JRich does a lot of things like a C+ or B- level and you can't really point to his game (other than maybe 3 point shooting) "Oh no, not JRich. Have you seen how bad he is at ______" but at the same time he doesn't really do anything at a high enough level that you can consistently win a matchup with. It's like ... "Oh, JRich can handle the ball some ...". Yes, he doesn't just dribble it off his foot or get his pocket picked for an instant turnover, but on the otherhand he doesn't really do anything in those opportunities.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 04:02 PM)HanspardShowerVoice Wrote: I feel like JRich does a lot of things like a C+ or B- level and you can't really point to his game (other than maybe 3 point shooting) "Oh no, not JRich. Have you seen how bad he is at ______" but at the same time he doesn't really do anything at a high enough level that you can consistently win a matchup with. It's like ... "Oh, JRich can handle the ball some ...". Yes, he doesn't just dribble it off his foot or get his pocket picked for an instant turnover, but on the otherhand he doesn't really do anything in those opportunities.
It's tough on me bc I look at his stat line last night and it looked pretty good and his plus minus was great. But then I watched that whole game and he looks like garbage and that's mostly bc he was very inefficient with his shots. 0/6 from 3 and 6/16 total FG. He is super inconsistent. Either he is decent or he is completely awful.
He might opt-in its hard to say bc I also think he could probably get an MLE deal if he wants it and lock in more money. He is a Bill Duffy guy so Mavs are going to need to appease Duffy in however they deal with J Rich.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - TXBamanut - 04-09-2021
JJ Redick practicing with the team tomorrow...
https://twitter.com/dalton_trigg/status/1380566631663943680?s=20
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-09-2021
(03-30-2021, 07:06 PM)cow Wrote: All roads lead to THT. One very smart, very lucky front office will land him.
I’ve been thinking about this some today. I’m kind of haunted by the idea that Dallas tends to do things we don’t expect. I talked about Norman Powell in this regard with very little response. So, he would certainly qualify as someone that no one here is talking about.
But, this post is about THT. One thing I like strategically is that his max cost is finite. You can plan around that cost in terms of what you do elsewhere. For instance, if THJ is to be kept, you can give him his number and ask him to wait until you are done with THT. You can’t say that if your target is Lonzo or even UFA Norman Powell. There, you have to deal with where and for how much. You can’t give Hardaway a firm bid. With THT, the only question is whether he wants to go to your town.
I pick Hardaway as the keeper because I think Horton-Tucker more closely replicates what you have with JRich than what you have with Hardaway. If you let go of rights to JRich and WCS, you can give THJ $14.7mm as the last guy added after you get THT. That assumes a max $20.7mm offer for THT. It might not come to that. It doesn’t have to be Hardaway. It could be any $14.7mm Free Agent who can hit 3’s.
1. But, doesn’t THT’s RFA status risk you losing JRich and other free agents while you wait? I used to think that, but there are a pretty good number of guys that would take $20.7mm if the THT thing fails.
2. But, wouldn’t LAL just match any offer? That is the common wisdom here, but the Lakers have way too many moving parts to make blanket judgements. Those include Schroeder, Harrell and Caruso plus others in addition to THT. They could have a huge issue at C if Harrell leaves and Gasol now looking done (they have no rights on Drummond). They could have a huge issue at PG if Schroeder leaves...especially if the other team isn’t willing to just gift LA a TPE. Even if everything else goes perfectly, it may take multi-year deals for Schroeder, Harrell and Caruso and that means a huge LT bill for several years to come.
3. But, is he any good. Well, that is the $80 million question. He didn’t have a very good defensive reputation coming out of college, but his statistical profile as a pro with that bulk and his 7’1” wingspan is certainly encouraging. He can create for himself in ways that JRich can’t. He makes nice passes occasionally, but has way too many turnovers to call him a playmaker (think Julius Randle prior to this season when his Assist% nearly doubled while his TO% stayed mid-teens). It all comes down to his shot. When I watch his highlights, he makes all of them...kidding. When I watch his highlights, he looks really comfortable shooting the 3’s that go in. It hasn’t translated to even a tiny bit of consistency. He is absolutely a projection in this area.
Here’s the thing. Many of you rejected the 33+ PG’s. For the most part, you don’t see a path to Lonzo. I’ve posted that Dallas seems to want a point-of-attack defender to pair with Luka, so that may kill O-only guys like Powell, Monk Dinwiddie and Fournier. DeRozan and Oladipo probably cost more than $20.7mm and one can’t stay healthy and the other can’t hit a three (OK, neither can hit a three lately). If you are trying to upgrade JRich while keeping Hardaway AND you have an archetype you are looking for, is Cow right here? Is THT that guy (or at least might he be soon)?
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-09-2021
@"DanSchwartzgan" I am looking at LA's salaries and they don't look that bad. Schroder might cost some money but it's not like Caruso is going to break the bank. They will be just fine. They need to maximize LeBron's golden years so they are not going to pinch pennies. I also don't think anyones going to give THT an 80 million dollar poison pill contract, that would be nuts.
RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-09-2021
(04-09-2021, 06:14 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: @"DanSchwartzgan" I am looking at LA's salaries and they don't look that bad. Schroder might cost some money but it's not like Caruso is going to break the bank. They will be just fine. They need to maximize LeBron's golden years so they are not going to pinch pennies. I also don't think anyones going to give THT an 80 million dollar poison pill contract, that would be nuts.
Below is from The Athletic (prior to the trade deadline)... If you attribute the THT match as the last mile, whatever amount they choose to count toward the cap (actual or average) will be more than twice as expensive. Let’s say they go 10/10/30/30. If you assume they are in a similar LT position the next two years, then THT costs them more like 24/24/30/30. If people think 4/80 is nuts, how does 4/108 sound?
Buha: You mentioned the hard cap. This offseason, the Lakers have several crucial decisions to make with multiple impending free agents, including Schröder, Montrezl Harrell (player option), Alex Caruso, Horton-Tucker, Markieff Morris and Wesley Matthews. Kyle Kuzma’s extension kicks in next season. LeBron James and Anthony Davis’ max contracts also rise in annual value. The roster is going to be expensive.
What type of luxury tax bill could the Lakers face in 2021-22 and how could that affect their trade deadline and/or offseason approach?
Leroux: That is a big question with this franchise even if ownership appears willing to pay a significant tax bill to keep the roster together, which gives the Lakers a huge competitive advantage. As of now, Los Angeles has $110 million committed to five players (James, Davis, Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma and Marc Gasol) including the $5 million owed to Luol Deng that counts against the cap and tax but not including Harrell at either his $9.7 million player option or a new salary as a free agent. With current projections putting the luxury tax line at $136.6 million, the Lakers only have about $26 million to spend before going over that threshold with a free agent group that includes Schröder, Harrell, Horton-Tucker and Caruso. One or more of that group may choose to play elsewhere next season as all but Horton-Tucker are unrestricted but the bill could get pretty big quickly. Let’s say three of the four return for a combined price of $35 million: at that point, the Lakers would already be $9 million over the tax with only eight players on the roster. Using the taxpayer mid-level exception on a new addition and then using veteran minimum contracts to get to fourteen players puts them at roughly $160 million, which puts them $23.4 million over the tax. In practical terms, that would mean a $57 million tax bill and a total team salary of over $217 million.
Remember, that is a lower-end estimate rather than something closer to the most they could spend using Bird rights and/or using unbalanced trades to add salary. That may not faze Jeanie Buss but remember that James, Davis and Kuzma are all under contract for at least one more year and some 2021 signings will likely join them with salary cap and luxury tax lines that will not rise more than 10 percent per season due to the agreement owners and players made during the pandemic.
My instinct is that the price tag does not affect Pelinka and the front office this offseason, but what they do may have larger ripple effects down the line, especially with James already in his mid-30s.