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2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 02:52 PM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: KCP vs Jrich: Pope is the better shooter and defender but Richardson is a better play maker. This off-season Pope signed a 3/39 with LA.


I think JRich is better than KCP and KCP was actually blackmailing Lakers, because they had no way to replace him, if he would walk. Still, KCP level of contract seems like something fair for JRich, unless he has great playoffs.


(04-06-2021, 02:52 PM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: Clarkson vs THJ: I honestly don’t really know who’s better between these two. They seem like very similar players. Clarkson just signed a 4/51 with Utah.


As players they are very similar, totally agree. But Clarkson contract seems low. He is not lights out shooter, averaging below 35 % from three for his career (and not much better with Utah). I think THJ salary can be anywhere between Clarkson and Joe Harris (70 mil for 4 years). I am affraid it will be closer to Harris one, something like 60/4. But again - playoff performance will be a factor.


(04-06-2021, 02:52 PM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: So I’m just spitballing but let’s say in a perfect world Jrich and THJ signed similar deals with us, wouldn’t that leave us with about $9 million in Space after clearing their cap holds?


If total cap space is 34, reducing it by 12 mil for JRich and 13 mil for THJ would leave 9 mil, yes. Dumping Powell would come valuable here. In this optimistic scenario you would still have 20 mil of cap space.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Mavs2021 - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 01:14 PM)DrMav Wrote: Lol, he’s a 2nd round pick, he signed the contract cause his other option was go oversees or move on from basketball. 


Hopefully the Mavs do have plans for Bey and with a more regular offseason we can see what happens with him and the other rookies, but the idea that there was some master plan made so he could orchestrate his way out of Dallas ASAP is just laughable.

Yeah and if he goes overseas the Mavs retain his draft rights for another 12 months, so he gains f*** all. If he goes and plays in Spain and wants to re-enter the NBA he´s still blocked by the Mavs. By agreeing to the 2-way contract in December, he becomes a RFA in August and can actually pick his next NBA team, unless the Mavs match the offer. So if the Mavs came to Bey and said listen we need an extra roster spot, would you be willing to sign as a 2-way contract, rather than a full four years (like Terry), then there is an incentive for Bey to do so. Rolleyes


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - HanspardShowerVoice - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 02:53 PM)omahen Wrote: Also a thing to consider - are we sure JRich and THJ will want to stay? What if they are both gone by their choosing? Or is their a salary limit you (in the role of Mavs GM) thinks offering what someone else offered is too much?  Where is the salary limit you would walk away from them?

I think this is the most likely stumbling block.  JRich is 27.   THJ is 29.  Very likely this is their last big open market contract of their careers, and will want to maximize their earnings while they still can.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - ItsGoTime - 04-06-2021

Man, I’d be looking for SnT possibilities if THJ looks for more than $15M and JRich more than $12M. I’d give them 4 years and max raises on that starting salary, but it would make building out the rest of the team that much harder if we go too much higher.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - dirkfansince1998 - 04-06-2021

As other posters already mentioned. If the Mavs lose a close first round series or actually make a deeper run it makes a lot of sense to go with continuity. If the Mavs are closer than I think (2nd round exit or better) even all in trade scenarios are an option (remaining 1sts + Powell and/or WCS, Burke for the best possible player).
We also cannot forget the KP rumors. I don´t think the MBT is sold on his fit next to Luka. Add the injury issues and I wouldn´tbe suprised if they try to move on if the Mavs lose in a potential play in tournament or the first round.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - BasketballJones41 - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 03:04 PM)HanspardShowerVoice Wrote: I think this is the most likely stumbling block.  JRich is 27.   THJ is 29.  Very likely this is their last big open market contract of their careers, and will want to maximize their earnings while they still can.
With only six teams (not including the Mavs) set to have Space this off-season what kind of market will there be for them? That’s the question. Even with an underwhelming free agent class I don’t see then being at the top of anybody’s list. Then when you factor in that fact most of the other teams with space are lotto teams their options really narrow. Pretty much you’re left with Chicago, New York, and Charlotte. 

Chicago: I think they’re going all in on Lonzo. Which is consequently why I could see them either not extending or pulling Markkanen’s qualifying offer and making him unrestricted. 

New York: They’re probably going to bid on Lonzo as well but I think he more likely ends up with the Bulls. After that They’ll probably go after Schroeder or Conley. And I for sure can’t see them trying to pay THJ for a third time.

Charlotte: Seems like a foregone conclusion that they’re going heavy after Montrez Harrell for some reason. They’ve already got Rozier and Ball. Plus they have to make a decision about Devonte’ Graham. He’s younger than our guys so I imagine they would prefer to just keep him. 

Again I could be really wrong or I’m just seeing through my homer glasses but I really think there’s a good chance they we’re able to keep THJ and Jrich on team friendly deals. Something like $24 million per year combined. From there all we have to do is convince OKC to take on Dwight Powell for a couple of seconds. And then all of the sudden we’ve got a damn good core with $19 million in Space left. All easier said than done and I’m doing a lot of assuming but that’s the way I see it.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - bearforce1 - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 03:31 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Man, I’d be looking for SnT possibilities if THJ looks for more than $15M and JRich more than $12M. I’d give them 4 years and max raises on that starting salary, but it would make building out the rest of the team that much harder if we go too much higher.

Average NBA vet starter money is ~$16M, so I think JRich would find offers more than $12M somewhere. He hasn't been amazing here, but I think he will still have value around the league. 

My current dream offseason scenario is to SnT JRich (plus stuff) for Lonzo & then go over the cap to retain THJ.  Ball compared to JRich is younger, great defensively, better secondary playmaker, & shooting nearly 40% from 3 on 8 attempts per game. Pels are not going to let him walk for nothing - at least they would get a replacement starter back in JRich with some vet leadership and maybe one of our projects and/or a pick.  

I don't know what it would take contract-wise to get Ball ($80-100/4yrs?) or what the "plus stuff" could be, but I think the talent and fit would be a nice upgrade esp. if he can keep up the 3pt shooting.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Mavs2021 - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 03:31 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Man, I’d be looking for SnT possibilities if THJ looks for more than $15M and JRich more than $12M. I’d give them 4 years and max raises on that starting salary, but it would make building out the rest of the team that much harder if we go too much higher.

Richardson has the same agent as Doncic.
Richardson was acquired via trade. Cuban doesn´t like to lose.
Richardson has a manageable caphold.

To me this comes down to THJ.

I think the Mavs will try to use the capspace threat (let THJ/WCS go, waive/trade Powell) to execute a S&T and operate over the cap, keep the rest of the team together and use the full MLE.

This strategy will depend on two factors:

1.) How much will it cost to do such a trade. Is it better to acquire Collins, keep THJ and sign McDermott for 10M at the trade cost of three 1st round picks (for example) or is it better to sign Collins outright, lose THJ, lose the full MLE, but keep your three 1st round picks for another trade (for example).
 
2.) How much value they attach to each scenario will obviously be impacted by the team performance in the 2nd half of the season and the play-offs.

It´s a real difficult situation, because there are so many factors to consider.

Given that the over-the cap option will result in the better immediate team and that the Mavs don´t care about picks/rookies anyway, I´d say it´s more likely they will go that direction. The over the capspace option, requires more patience and for the last decade the Mavs have never made any long-term plans. It´s always about the product next season.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Kammrath - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 03:55 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: We also cannot forget the KP rumors. I don´t think the MBT is sold on his fit next to Luka. Add the injury issues and I wouldn´tbe suprised if they try to move on if the Mavs lose in a potential play in tournament or the first round.


Yes, 100% this. 

If the KP/Luka chemistry REALLY improves and allows the Mavs playoff success then dealing him becomes very unlikely, BUT if the Luka+KP dynamic continues to sputter then I am firmly in the camp that the Mavs will sell high on KP this summer.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - mvossman - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 02:50 PM)omahen Wrote: In the short term it would be likely a step back. Depends a lot on how creative Mavs can be. Because for me - an aggresive offseason Mavs are announcing is not offering max contract to Collins and hope Atlanta doesn't match. Nevertheless, you will always have another MLE every season. Still, if I simplify a lot using Collins example. If you can get him (or Ball) and trade Powell+draft assets for something useful (for example Ross would be realistic target), you could still have at least comparable team with higher upside. Offer more time to the rookies and hope for internal development.

Luka, Terry, Burke, miniMLE
Brunson, Green, Hinton
DFS, Ross, BAE
Collins, Kleber, Bey
KP, Melli, vet min

The thing with this is that in order to get Collins you are likely going to have to trade a legit asset (like Maxi, who was scoffed at for trade deadline, but might be enough in off season).  Also, don't think we have the draft assets to get off Powell contract.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - soog - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 04:13 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Yes, 100% this. 

If the KP/Luka chemistry REALLY improves and allows the Mavs playoff success then dealing him because very unlikely, BUT if the Luka+KP dynamic continues to sputter then I am firmly in the camp that the Mavs will sell high on KP this summer.

To do this they would have to get something back of substantial value.  What do you think an equivalent return would be for KP?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Mavs2021 - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 03:55 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: As other posters already mentioned. If the Mavs lose a close first round series or actually make a deeper run it makes a lot of sense to go with continuity. If the Mavs are closer than I think (2nd round exit or better) even all in trade scenarios are an option (remaining 1sts + Powell and/or WCS, Burke for the best possible player).
We also cannot forget the KP rumors. I don´t think the MBT is sold on his fit next to Luka. Add the injury issues and I wouldn´tbe suprised if they try to move on if the Mavs lose in a potential play in tournament or the first round.

Agreed. That´s the one we don´t know about. If they secretly calculate with a Porzingis trade, that changes everything. Try to sign Collins/Markkanen. The move Porzingis, Green + four first round picks for Beal´s expiring contract.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - mvossman - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 04:05 PM)bearforce1 Wrote: Average NBA vet starter money is ~$16M, so I think JRich would find offers more than $12M somewhere. He hasn't been amazing here, but I think he will still have value around the league. 

My current dream offseason scenario is to SnT JRich (plus stuff) for Lonzo & then go over the cap to retain THJ.  Ball compared to JRich is younger, great defensively, better secondary playmaker, & shooting nearly 40% from 3 on 8 attempts per game. Pels are not going to let him walk for nothing - at least they would get a replacement starter back in JRich with some vet leadership and maybe one of our projects and/or a pick.  

I don't know what it would take contract-wise to get Ball ($80-100/4yrs?) or what the "plus stuff" could be, but I think the talent and fit would be a nice upgrade esp. if he can keep up the 3pt shooting.

I would be open to that trade, but the problem is you need four parties to agree to it (Mavs, Pels, JRich and Ball).  Not sure how often something like this happens, but it seems unlikely to get all parties to agree.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - BasketballJones41 - 04-06-2021

What would the Ramifications be for waiving Powell? How much would that cost us and for how many years and how much extra space would that free up this year?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Mapka - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 04:13 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Richardson has the same agent as Doncic.
Richardson was acquired via trade. Cuban doesn´t like to lose.
Richardson has a manageable caphold.

To me this comes down to THJ.

I think the Mavs will try to use the capspace threat (let THJ/WCS go, waive/trade Powell) to execute a S&T and operate over the cap, keep the rest of the team together and use the full MLE.

This strategy will depend on two factors:

1.) How much will it cost to do such a trade. Is it better to acquire Collins, keep THJ and sign McDermott for 10M at the trade cost of three 1st round picks (for example) or is it better to sign Collins outright, lose THJ, lose the full MLE, but keep your three 1st round picks for another trade (for example).
 
2.) How much value they attach to each scenario will obviously be impacted by the team performance in the 2nd half of the season and the play-offs.

It´s a real difficult situation, because there are so many factors to consider.

Given that the over-the cap option will result in the better immediate team and that the Mavs don´t care about picks/rookies anyway, I´d say it´s more likely they will go that direction. The over the capspace option, requires more patience and for the last decade the Mavs have never made any long-term plans. It´s always about the product next season.

I don't think they will do something complicated.

They will extend their FAs.
I don't think there is a player left that's worth to loose both and the MLE.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - HAguiar95 - 04-06-2021

Powell + Green + '25 1st for Larry Nance Jr? Mavs supposedy showed interest in him at the TDL. Cavs are still tanking and should embrace it like the Magic. DP expires with Love creating a lot of cap for them. Also, the value is close to the Gordon trade (bad contract, 1st, prospect). Good rebounder, defender, has good switchability and can hit the three. He's not AG, but pretty close.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - cow - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 02:53 PM)omahen Wrote: Also a thing to consider - are we sure JRich and THJ will want to stay? What if they are both gone by their choosing? Or is there a salary limit you (in the role of Mavs GM) thinks offering what someone else offered is too much?  Where is the salary limit you would walk away from them?

THJ 100% wants to be here.  Money is a different matter though.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - BasketballJones41 - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 04:51 PM)cow Wrote: THJ 100% wants to be here.  Money is a different matter though.
Even Tim Sr was talking about wanting THJ to resign here long term. That’s another reason I think he’ll take a team friendly deal.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - cow - 04-06-2021

(04-06-2021, 04:53 PM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: Even Tim Sr was talking about wanting THJ to resign here long term. That’s another reason I think he’ll take a team friendly deal.

I talked about no loving JB's body language/personality in the other thread but Tim is the exact opposite.  I think his experience and relative failings in New York taught him something.  You can just tell by his interviews that he loves playing here, loves his teammates and has even been receptive to taking on roles that aren't his preference (6th man).  As a Monday Morning GM, I think Tim needs a haircut from his current salary and if he gets more money somewhere else, I will not begrudge him.  As a fan, I'd miss the hell out of him.  I give him a ton of respect for making what looked like a bad contract dump into something reasonable. 

As much grief as I give Carlisle, he needs a lot of credit for making the most of leftovers in trades (Stevenson, Powell, Tim, and now Melli).


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Jason Terry - 04-06-2021

Here’s a different idea not discussed.

Re-sign J Rich and THj to the combined $25 million starting salaries with max raises

Renounce everyone else and decline WCS team option

Leaving the ~$9 million in space

Work a deal with Atlanta to help them keep Collins. They have several 4’s but only one 5. They also would go over the cap and pay tax if they want Collins(which they want to avoid). 

Gallo for Powell would save them around $9 million and we could include assets to make it more favorable to them. We would lose the full MLE since part of Gallo’s contract would be taken in to cap space. Just an idea

Luka/JRich/DFS/Max/KP
Brunson/THj/Gallo bench with vet min for WCS/Melli/Boban

Maybe not that deal in particular but the concept of signing our guys(THj/JR) and having even a small amount of cap space we could use that to get something from one of these teams needing to move someone without taking back salary