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2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-04-2021

Right I am surprised the Kings didn't sell high on Holmes. I feel like he has Charlotte Hornets written all over him. They have plenty of cap space to throw at a guy like this with upside.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-04-2021

Spencer Dinwiddie seems like a good target depending on the price-tag. I wouldn't overpay.

Danny Green would be fine on a 1 yr altho doesn't help you with playmaking. DeRozan and Conley would also be good if you can get them on a short deal.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - SleepingHero - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 09:31 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: Spencer Dinwiddie seems like a good target depending on the price-tag. I wouldn't overpay.


Hard to get excited for a backup guard that can't shoot and is coming of an ACL tear when he'll eat into Brunson's minutes. 

That is, unless you think Brunson's the starter, and Dinwiddie can come off the bench to lead the 2nd unit? That's more interesting, but I think Brunson's defense will let us down in the starting unit.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 08:54 AM)omahen Wrote: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2939222-every-nba-teams-biggest-flight-risk-this-offseason


Thanks for posting that.  I thought the write-up comparing JRich to THJ was fascinating..  It points out Richardson’s 3% is trending the right way (though the sample size is only 21 for 52).  What I’m more interested in is whether our Defensive Specialist is actually good at D.  Post All-Star break his D-Rating is down to 113 (from 116) and his O-Rating is up to 111 (from 108) and his +/- is +4.7 vs. -3.9 before the break.  If you are going to argue JRich is anything different than what we had with Delon Wright, then the argument has to start with on-court effectiveness.

I made a statement yesterday about JRich needing to be replaced among the starters this offseason, to which you replied “why not DFS”.  I spent a little time tooling around data at BBall Index and found some things that were interesting in their defensive data.  DFS is second in the entire league in the amount of time he spends guarding players classified as “Shot Creators”.  JRich is 21st in that category.  JRich is classified as a point of attack defender and among players who have played 600 minutes, he is 22nd in percentage of time guarding the “Primary Ball Handler”.  Others who rate highly here are Delon Wright, Patrick Beverly and Danny Green (anyone notice a pattern).  If you want to move on from JRich, probably the most important thing to look for is the ability to defend the point of attack (so that Luka doesn’t have to).  

The list of guards who defend the point of attack and are good at it is pretty limited.  But, Dallas asks even more of this spot (this year with JRich and last year with DWright).  If you also ask them to guard “Shot Creators” a high percentage of time, then Lonzo and Jrue Holiday are the best alternatives.  Conley is also a good choice as a defender of Primary Ball Handlers, but he isn’t asked to guard Shot Creators like JRich is (and Wright was).  So, the conclusion I’m coming to is if JRich goes, it is probably going to have to be someone like Conley or Lonzo to make it really be an upgrade for what Dallas is trying to accomplish with the position.

The other thing that was interesting about the article is how “Luka Dependent” Hardaway is.  How much would it cost to get someone who hits 40% of their 3’s without requiring Luka’s help?  Are those more easily attained than Lonzo or Conley would be.  AND, what player like this would be willing to come off the bench like THJ does or be a good enough defender to push DFS to a bench role as you suggested yesterday?  It is hard to find that one guy, but bear in mind that if you move on from THJ, you might be able to land two guys at something above the MLE.  The amount of pure cap space this summer isn’t what it used to be, so two guys in the $11mm - $13mm range (one being the 3 point specialist and one filling another hole), might be a good way to go also.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 11:22 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Thanks for posting that.  I thought the write-up comparing JRich to THJ was fascinating..  It points out Richardson’s 3% is trending the right way (though the sample size is only 21 for 52).  What I’m more interested in is whether our Defensive Specialist is actually good at D.  Post All-Star break his D-Rating is down to 113 (from 116) and his O-Rating is up to 111 (from 108) and his +/- is +4.7 vs. -3.9 before the break.  If you are going to argue JRich is anything different than what we had with Delon Wright, then the argument has to start with on-court effectiveness.

I made a statement yesterday about JRich needing to be replaced among the starters this offseason, to which you replied “why not DFS”.  I spent a little time tooling around data at BBall Index and found some things that were interesting in their defensive data.  DFS is second in the entire league in the amount of time he spends guarding players classified as “Shot Creators”.  JRich is 21st in that category.  JRich is classified as a point of attack defender and among players who have played 600 minutes, he is 22nd in percentage of time guarding the “Primary Ball Handler”.  Others who rate highly here are Delon Wright, Patrick Beverly and Danny Green (anyone notice a pattern).  If you want to move on from JRich, probably the most important thing to look for is the ability to defend the point of attack (so that Luka doesn’t have to).  

The list of guards who defend the point of attack and are good at it is pretty limited.  But, Dallas asks even more of this spot (this year with JRich and last year with DWright).  If you also ask them to guard “Shot Creators” a high percentage of time, then Lonzo and Jrue Holiday are the best alternatives.  Conley is also a good choice as a defender of Primary Ball Handlers, but he isn’t asked to guard Shot Creators like JRich is (and Wright was).  So, the conclusion I’m coming to is if JRich goes, it is probably going to have to be someone like Conley or Lonzo to make it really be an upgrade for what Dallas is trying to accomplish with the position.

The other thing that was interesting about the article is how “Luka Dependent” Hardaway is.  How much would it cost to get someone who hits 40% of their 3’s without requiring Luka’s help?  Are those more easily attained than Lonzo or Conley would be.  AND, what player like this would be willing to come off the bench like THJ does or be a good enough defender to push DFS to a bench role as you suggested yesterday?  It is hard to find that one guy, but bear in mind that if you move on from THJ, you might be able to land two guys at something above the MLE.  The amount of pure cap space this summer isn’t what it used to be, so two guys in the $11mm - $13mm (one being the 3 point specialist and one filling another hole), might be a good way to go also.


I think we will be mostly guessing until playoffs, performance there will paint the final picture and it might be considerably different than it is now. I very much share concerns about Brunson as Sleepinghero does. I think this might be the main question - is Brunson able to take the role Richardson has? Firstly he is certainly limited by his size so guarding elite SG might be a problem. Mavs are already hiding Luka on defense, can't afford to have more guards like that in the same lineup. Still, if he can, Mavs can more easily move on from Richardson and keep THJ. I didn't propose to bench DFS. Bringing someone like Collins would just reduce DFS minutes from 35+ to some 25. Kleber would be coming in from bench as the third big taking both back up PF and C minutes. 

Maybe Mavs have two basic options. Either to continue with this team (playoffs will show how good they really are) or do a small reset and improve the talent base. In first case we will see minor changes, operate over the cap and add a good MLE guy. Perhaps lose one of THJ/JRich for an alternative, perhaps a Powell trade etc. In the second case I see Mavs going aggresively after one of the top RFA - Collins or Ball. In both cases, it would mean a huge difference if Mavs said goodbye to Powell. He can be a great guy, but his contract is a serious burden. If they dump him, they can operate with 40+ mil of caps space and perhaps go after both Ball and Markannen. That would be a move that could make it easier to survive losing THJ and JRich. If they can only snatch one (like Ball or Collins) and keep Powell, than Mavs will go slowly and add talent in the following years. It will be very difficult (impossible imho) to find a shooter even close to THJ caliber with mini MLE. 

I agree with your last part. One guy fits your description a lot - McDermott. His cost would likely be in the 10 mil range most. So, keep JRich at some 13 mil, sgn McDermott for 10 and big wing for remaining 11 or so millions. OPJ, DJJ come to mind. Or perhaps third big - Holmes might be an option, although I am affraid he will get much more. Olynik or Theis would be pipedream for mini MLE.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - ItsGoTime - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 11:22 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The other thing that was interesting about the article is how “Luka Dependent” Hardaway is.  How much would it cost to get someone who hits 40% of their 3’s without requiring Luka’s help?
If you’re able to find this data, how many other FOs are also able to find it and figure they jave a player of Luka’s caliber to do the same? Of those FOs, which ones have enough money and the need for THJ on their team? Does this limit the high dollar offers THJ receives in the offseason? Could THJ possibly be had for less than the $20M being floated by some here?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 12:28 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Could THJ possibly be had for less than the $20M being floated by some here?


I know shooters get paid, but THJ is 29. I wonder how much will that factor in his value. Out of the cap teams I guess we can strike out Detroit, OKC, Orlando and Cleveland. Rebuilding teams likely have no use of player like him, unless they just offer a large short term deal. I doubt New York would want him back, it would be a PR nightmare. San Antonio already has a bunch of young guards, so they don't really need him. Same can probably be said about Charlotte, who will likely target a center in FA. Pelicans and Atlanta don't really have money for chasing FA as they have to resign a bunch of their own guys. Besides, neither really needs a player of THJ type. That being said, THJ market perhaps isn't that great.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Kammrath - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 08:54 AM)omahen Wrote: Holmes


RH is my "Plan B" after my "Plan A" of John Collins.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 10:55 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Hard to get excited for a backup guard that can't shoot and is coming of an ACL tear when he'll eat into Brunson's minutes. 

That is, unless you think Brunson's the starter, and Dinwiddie can come off the bench to lead the 2nd unit? That's more interesting, but I think Brunson's defense will let us down in the starting unit.

Right I think Brunson needs his minutes but we are talking ab THJ and/or J Rich potentially going away so that's a lot of guard/forward minutes up for grabs. I guess bottom line for me is that if Mavs can't land a Ball or Collins type core guy then I want them getting good value. I would not overpay for anybody including Dinwiddie.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - KillerLeft - 04-04-2021

So, we all agree that they need more playmaking on the floor, and I believe those who aren't on board with that will probably get reminded of the need during the playoffs, when a good defense (hopefully, a couple) will get an entire series to figure out how and when to best get the ball out of Luka's hands. 

But, in my opinion, Brunson is making it difficult to envision a no-brainer path to an upgrade there, especially at the guard position. He's so good that any (realistically acquired) playmaking guards we mention make me immediately think "wouldn't I just rather see Brunson get that role?" Guys like Dinwiddie are interesting, but I'm just not excited about them relative to Brunson's current trajectory. 

Brunson's one offensive weakness is that he doesn't create a whole lot for others, but at this point I don't know that a little more experience won't fix that, too. Imo, he just needs to become a little more of a pick and roll guard and he's pretty close to the guy we all think they need.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - ItsGoTime - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 12:38 PM)omahen Wrote: I know shooters get paid, but THJ is 29. I wonder how much will that factor in his value.
Ya, this is also the only stretch in his career that he hasn’t been an inefficient chucker. That’s why I’m sure other FOs will do their homework on “why” and come across these type of stats. I wouldn’t mind keeping THJ, but in all honesty, I could see better use of $20M being spent.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - soog - 04-04-2021

Forgive me if this has already been mentioned somewhere in the last 240 pages, but what’s the deal with people thinking Lonzo is a prime free agent?  (Especially for the Mavs who already have a primary ball handler)


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - KillerLeft - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 01:24 PM)soog Wrote: Forgive me if this has already been mentioned somewhere in the last 240 pages, but what’s the deal with people thinking Lonzo is a prime free agent?  (Especially for the Mavs who already have a primary ball handler)


I believe the thinking is centered around A) his defensive ability and B) the idea that he's just as good, if not better, playing quite a bit off-ball, like he has been doing this season. 

None of that matters to me at all. I wouldn't touch him with a 10-ft pole.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - ItsGoTime - 04-04-2021

He’s a Jason Kidd clone that has worked on his 3 early in his career unlike JK. He’s a defensive minded ball handler and distributor. He can play with the ball or without, which means he can give Luka rests in game. He’s young and was being shopped (at least rumored to be shopped) which possibly means NO won’t match all offers so is gettable.

All the things he offers have been talked about as needs on this team for about a year now.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - dirkfansince1998 - 04-04-2021

My pipe dream:

Resign both THJ and JRich. Add three legit rotation players. One guard, one wing, one big. With a little bit more depth the Mavs would probably be among the top 3-4 teams in the west. Also not impossible to make a deep playoff run with two star players and a good supporting cast (Miami last year, Toronto in 2019).
I just don´t see any way to add a 3rd "star" that actually makes the team better in the longrun.

- Bigman for the MLE: Theis, Holmes, Olynyk
- Wing in a Powell (and/or Burke) trade or sign/trade
- Guard/wing for the BAE: McConnell, Caruso

Still thinking about ways to lift the restricitions on the 2023 pick. Maybe a Burke for Ntilikina sign/trade? That would free up the 2025 1st round pick for a potential Powell trade.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - KillerLeft - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 01:34 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: He can play with the ball or without, which means he can give Luka rests in game. 


The above is absolutely correct, and I don't mean this next comment as a slight on his general ball-handling abilities, as he'd be the first or second best handler on the team immediately, but:

He is NOT a pick and roll guy. That's why I didn't think he's a fit with Zion, who imo should be used (at least early on) like prime Amare Stoudemire, and that's why I think he'd be mostly an off-ball player here in Dallas. He's just not a great fit for this system as a ball-handler, imo, but might be an upgrade over Richardson in a similar role.

But none of that even compares to the simple and obvious truth that involving his father with the franchise, even in a minor, peripheral way, is one of the dumbest things this team could possibly do next. I get that this doesn't bother others (don't get why) but I will never be able to get there.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - dirkfansince1998 - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 01:39 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: The above is absolutely correct, and I don't mean this next comment as a slight on his general ball-handling abilities, as he'd be the first or second best handler on the team immediately, but:

He is NOT a pick and roll guy. That's why I didn't think he's a fit with Zion, who imo should be used (at least early on) like prime Amare Stoudemire, and that's why I think he'd be mostly an off-ball player here in Dallas. He's just not a great fit for this system as a ball-handler, imo, but might be an upgrade over Richardson in a similar role.

But none of that even compares to the simple and obvious truth that involving his father with the franchise, even in a minor, peripheral way, is one of the dumbest things this team could possibly do next. I get that this doesn't bother others (don't get why) but I will never be able to get there.

I think he would really help KP and Brunson. Lonzo is not a ball dominant PG. He runs the offense but it´s not about him creating of the dribble. More about him getting the ball to his teammates and setting them up in their go to spots. He would also improve the mediocre transition offense. Lonzo can push the pace and is probably the best half court passer in the entire league.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - KillerLeft - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 01:46 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think he would really help KP and Brunson. Lonzo is not a ball dominant PG. He runs the offense but it´s not about him creating of the dribble. More about him getting the ball to his teammates and setting them up in their go to spots. He would also improve the mediocre transition offense. Lonzo can push the pace and is probably the best half court passer in the entire league.


I don’t disagree. But, I don’t care. I literally would not even consider adding this player for one second.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-04-2021

I like Ball's fit but I think a team like NYK will be more into him so I would be surprised if the Mavs get in the mix. I think Mavs are all-in on Collins and NYK is all in on Ball.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Scott41theMavs - 04-04-2021

(04-04-2021, 12:27 PM)omahen Wrote: I very much share concerns about Brunson as Sleepinghero does. I think this might be the main question - is Brunson able to take the role Richardson has? 

How about Brunson takes the role Brunson has and it gets bigger?

Anyone who has "concerns" about Brunson given what his play has built up into as seen in recent games is either certifiable, or the concerns are about him walking in '22. 

Damn, this is the worst thing since HNL's tragic and absolutely insane anti-Luka bias in '17-'18.