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2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 08:58 AM)Branduil Wrote: In that case I think the logical offseason move would be to go after someone like Holmes and hope you can swing a trade for a guy like Brogdon later.

The thing I come back to a lot is that you also have to sell these guys on a starting spot. Holmes is going to sign with a team that tells him he is the starter, period. Even if Mavs offer him a competitive deal (which they won't anyways) he is going to sign with a team like Charlotte where he knows he is the FT starter AND gets the money.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - HanspardShowerVoice - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 08:52 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I don't think the issue is how hard it is to get the middle class.  I think the issue is the middle class is always Plan B while we chase the bigger fish first.  Note the three guys in your example all went to LA.  Players have 29 other choices and sometimes the other choices are more attractive.  That's a fact of life, not a failing of the MBT.  Who doesn't want to win a ring with Lebron?

Maybe we should stop trying to be LA and do what Indy did the moment free agency opened with Brogdon or what Utah did the moment free agency opened with Bogdonovic or what Charlotte did the moment free agency opened with Hayward.  Make those guys Plan A.  Atlanta used $37 million in space last summer to get Gallinari AND Bogdonovic.  Do that rather than waiting around on a 1% chance Kawhi picks us.  We can debate who that is in 2021, but it is the team's job to know who would jump at the chance to be here and who might have us further down their list.  

I don't see a path to Collins.  My interest in him was at the TDL when you could hold his matching rights.  I see a huge issue with trying to work this out with Atlanta while other names are flying off the board (we know how that movie ends).  I'm also not sure we would be Collins' first choice.  I get why a Dallas-centric community would think playing next to Luka and KP is perfect for any player.  However, if I am his agent, my main job is to get the most I can get now and set him up for the next contract.  I'd much rather place him where he would be first or second fiddle rather than third.  That way he's got a much better shot at a five year 7-9 max money deal the next time.

A great example of this is Christian Wood.  We sent Detroit more than enough salary to match Wood and pretty clearly they preferred Wright over Ariza.  The rest of the deal with Houston wasn't hard to replicate.  My takeaway isn't that the MBT failed.  My takeaway is Wood saw a bigger role (and greater future riches) in Houston.  Crowder said the same thing about Phoenix.    

We can debate the specific names.  You don't like Monk, what about Norman Powell or DeRozan or Fournier or Duncan Robinson or Dinwiddie.  I don't think it will be hard to replace what THJ does.  Just because the team says they will be "aggressive" (which they say every year), it doesn't mean they are going to strictly look at Max guys.  What I'm advocating is making your target(s) guys that are realistic and getting that done at 5:01 like other teams in similar markets seem to be able to do.

This is the path for me.  The first step is to do an honest evaluation of what kind of skillsets best complement Luka and KP .. which you should know by this point ... and laser focus on the available middle class players who have those skillsets and slight overpay if need be (especially for youth).     This is why I would highlight someone like Lonzo.   If you can't find a "3rd star" find someone who makes KP a no brainer Top 20 player.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 08:58 AM)Branduil Wrote: In that case I think the logical off-season move would be to go after someone like Holmes and hope you can swing a trade for a guy like Brogdon later.

The good news is there are gobs of mix and match situations out there.  My belief is we need to add at least one more player than we lose from among our top seven.  That can happen above the cap with S&T's and the MLE or below the cap using room or a combo of room and a S&T.  Rather than all of these KP to this team or that team deals, maybe we would be wiser to look for teams that might be interested in S&T Hardaway, Richardson or Redick (EB) for something they have.  

I'll throw out one more thing that we may need to think about.  If we lose Brunson in 2022, it will be about role rather than money.  Luka with Brunson is +8.1 in net rating and the D-Rating is 106.9.  With THJ and JRich those numbers are 3.8 and 3.0 for net rating and 113.6 and 114.2 for D-Rating.  In all minutes, the team is 2.8 points better defensively with Brunson on than with Brunson off.  The point is maybe we should be thinking in terms of adding someone who allows us to start Brunson.  I'm thinking of a sixth man type who can run the offense and be a bench scorer.  You won't get Norman Powell or DeRozan or Lowry or Conley to play that role, but you might get Dinwiddie or Monk or Satoransky to do it.  

If we operate over the cap we can trade two out of THJ, JRich and Redick, keep one of them and still use the MLE.  It is probably easier to clear the cap room and just sign two guys.  But, you are losing two guys and haven't gotten that 8th good player if you do that.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 08:50 AM)khaled1987 Wrote: This makes me think, OKC will most likely be the biggest player in RFA, not the Mavs.
Cap space, nothing to lose if other team matches , tons of assets to work with teams for S&T.
Seems to me they will be better Signing/trading for Collins rather than going for KP.


RFA has to agree to come to them.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 08:52 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: We can debate the specific names.  You don't like Monk, what about Norman Powell or DeRozan or Fournier or Duncan Robinson or Dinwiddie.  I don't think it will be hard to replace what THJ does.  Just because the team says they will be "aggressive" (which they say every year), it doesn't mean they are going to strictly look at Max guys.  What I'm advocating is making your target(s) guys that are realistic and getting that done at 5:01 like other teams in similar markets seem to be able to do.

I totally agree with this. What I don't understand is why you think we can agree with others to sign a deal at 5:01 (obviously prepared in advance), while not do the same with Atlanta for Collins SnT. Indiana did it with Brogdon, for example. Negotiations have to be done before 5:01. If not, then I just hope Mavs run away from it, because it is nothing more than a pipedream.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - Mavs2021 - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 08:33 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: The window for a LaVine trade just got slammed shut with the big Vuc trade. I think your next opportunity would be if/when he hits free agency.

No it has not. The Bulls have lost all three games since the trade. They are 1-7 over their last eight. If Duffy comes to them in the summer and says: Just a heads up, Lavine wants to play with Luka, he won´t sign an extension. You might want to talk to the Mavericks now or lose him for nothing next summer.

Mavs trade 2023 protected for 2022 unprotected to the Knicks. Throw in a Ntilikina S&T for Terry as an incentive, if necessary.

Then offer the Bulls Powell + Burke  + Kleber (at least one 1st round pick re-trade value), 2024, 2026, 2028 unprotected, plus 2025 + 2027 swaps. That´s up to 6-7 first round picks for a guy on an expiring contract that will leave in 12 months. If they say no, call the Wizards. One of them says YES.

You keep a 2023 1st round pick swap (converted into two seconds) and Green in your back-pocket to incentivise the Hawks not to match the offer.

There are ways to get two top players here this summer from a cap and asset POV (though then we are probably completely empty until 2028), but the Mavs biggest problem remains to convince FAs to actually play here.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StrandedOnBeauboisHill - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 10:29 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Mavs trade 2023 protected for 2022 unprotected to the Knicks.
The Knicks already have our 2023 pick.  Unless you're trying to say it the other way around but in that case we can't trade our 2022 pick until it's made.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 10:27 AM)omahen Wrote: I totally agree with this. What I don't understand is why you think we can agree with others to sign a deal at 5:01 (obviously prepared in advance), while not do the same with Atlanta for Collins SnT. Indiana did it with Brogdon, for example. Negotiations have to be done before 5:01. If not, then I just hope Mavs run away from it, because it is nothing more than a pipedream.

You make a valid point.  I'm focused on two classes of player.  Totally free and guys who might not have a role with their current team.  We can probably money-whip guys like Powell, DeRozan, Lowry, Dinwiddie and Theis.  I have also mentioned RFA's Markkanen and Monk.  I see their current teams as much more accommodating than I see the situation with Atlanta and Collins (not to mention the part that I think Collins might be better served by playing elsewhere).

Of course, part of what I'm doing is trying to double reverse jinx this Collins thing.  We know from history that if I post a dozen ways it could happen, it won't.  So, I'm trying something different this season.  Collins is a bum.  He hates dogs and children.  No way he comes here.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 10:29 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: No it has not. The Bulls have lost all three games since the trade. They are 1-7 over their last eight. If Duffy comes to them in the summer and says: Just a heads up, Lavine wants to play with Luka, he won´t sign an extension. You might want to talk to the Mavericks now or lose him for nothing next summer.

Mavs trade 2023 protected for 2022 unprotected to the Knicks. Throw in a Ntilikina S&T for Terry as an incentive, if necessary.

Then offer the Bulls Powell + Burke  + Kleber (at least one 1st round pick re-trade value), 2024, 2026, 2028 unprotected, plus 2025 + 2027 swaps. That´s up to 6-7 first round picks for a guy on an expiring contract that will leave in 12 months. If they say no, call the Wizards. One of them says YES.

You keep a 2023 1st round pick swap (converted into two seconds) and Green in your back-pocket to incentivise the Hawks not to match the offer.

There are ways to get two top players here this summer from a cap and asset POV (though then we are probably completely empty until 2028), but the Mavs biggest problem remains to convince FAs to actually play here.

I find your 23 for 22 thing to be creative and more interesting than some of the other ideas I've seen for fixing the 23 issue.  Well done.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - juanc - 04-02-2021

I get why Collins is so desired on this board, but let me ask you a few questions.

1. Is he the 3rd guy, that would make this team a contender?
2. Is he worth the max? What is he worth in your opinion?
3. Do you realy think that we need to add that 3rd star now?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StrandedOnBeauboisHill - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 11:13 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I find your 23 for 22 thing to be creative and more interesting than some of the other ideas I've seen for fixing the 23 issue.  Well done.

So is the idea that we're giving them our 2022 instead of the 2023?  We wouldn't be able to do that.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 11:34 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: So is the idea that we're giving them our 2022 instead of the 2023?  We wouldn't be able to do that.

After the 21 draft is complete.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - khaled1987 - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 10:22 AM)omahen Wrote: RFA has to agree to come to them.

Which is even better for them,they are the perfect team to showcase your talent and prepare for next contract


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - khaled1987 - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 11:13 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I find your 23 for 22 thing to be creative and more interesting than some of the other ideas I've seen for fixing the 23 issue.  Well done.

Why would the Knicks do that??? 
As I mentioned above, they have incentive to reject it.

A-It puts early expiry time on their asset: since they turned from a young team, into competitive one , they most likely view it as trade asset rather than a pick they will use, either way they better served waiting on it rather than being rushed one year earlier.

B-They would know we will then use our nrw flexibility for trades to improve the team, which is the opposite of what they want, the worse the Mavs, the better the pick for Knicks.

Unless we are sending extra asset, I really don't get the Knicks angle to accept such move.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - jesusshuttlesworth82 - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 11:30 AM)juanc Wrote: I get why Collins is so desired on this board, but let me ask you a few questions.

1. Is he the 3rd guy, that would make this team a contender?
2. Is he worth the max? What is he worth in your opinion?
3. Do you realy think that we need to add that 3rd star now?

We're going off the rumors that he's desired by the Mavs, not necessarily on this board.


Based on the Mavs historic failures in free agency, retaining THJ and JRich and operating over the cap with the MLE seems like the smart/safe play.  However, I dont think that's the Mavs plan A based on the whispers of them being very aggressive this summer.

ALso there's no effin way LaVine is available because the Bulls lost 3 straight after the Vucevic trade.  Mavs2021 needs to let that dream die for the time being.  The Bulls are going to keep adding to that team, not subtracting.  Maybe revisit that convo in 2 years if their attempts fail.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - DanSchwartzgan - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 11:52 AM)khaled1987 Wrote: Why would the Knicks do that??? 
As I mentioned above, they have incentive to reject it.

A-It puts early expiry time on their asset: since they turned from a young team, into competitive one , they most likely view it as trade asset rather than a pick they will use, either way they better served waiting on it rather than being rushed one year earlier.

B-They would know we will then use our nrw flexibility for trades to improve the team, which is the opposite of what they want, the worse the Mavs, the better the pick for Knicks.

Unless we are sending extra asset, I really don't get the Knicks angle to accept such move.

All of that may or may not be true.  Dallas is going to try to get better with or without NY’s help.  So, B doesn’t do much for me.

Rushed?  Expiring time on their asset?  The theory is sooner and unprotected is greater than later and protected whether they use the pick or trade it elsewhere.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - SleepingHero - 04-02-2021

(04-01-2021, 05:57 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/3/22/22343534/john-collins-atlanta-hawks-trade-deadline

So just revisiting this again. Hawks wanted a "high level" first round pick and/or young player and obviously didn't get that. Doesn't mean they won't get a first round pick or young player this summer. They said they intend to match all RFA offers which I believe. I don't think Mavs will make an RFA max offer and just try to call the Hawks' bluff. The Hawks aren't dumb they would match vs losing an asset for nothing.

Mavs do not have a first round pick but doesn't mean they couldn't get one. I think the Brogdan deal isn't a bad comp. Pacers gave up a first round pick and two seconds plus a 20 mil/yr contract in that S&T deal. Mavs have Brunson plus a few young players and I think Maxi could fetch a pick. At any rate I do expect Mavs to try to make a Collins deal happen. I bet this is their plan A. Casualties could include some combination of anyone outside of Luka, KP and I think DFS is a guy they want to hold onto.

I really like Collins.

I don't think he is worth anywhere close to blowing up the team. If we theoretically had to give them Brunson, trade away Maxi+DFS all to get Collins? Throw in multiple picks? 

Seems like we're losing more good players than gaining here. Especially since there are questions about how Collins/KP can fit together. And thats before we even broach the question of would Collins get pissy at Luka because he is a ball dominator.

I like Collins. I'd throw him a max just to see what happens. But if ATL matches I wouldn't really care. I think the Mavs are going all in to retain their guys and try to add 1-2 high quality role players. The more I see of the team playing at full force it makes sense to make smaller moves than a big splash.

THJ- 4/64-72
JRich 4/50
Boban vet min

Perhaps try and grab 1-2 out of these guys: Dragic, Porter Jr. Danny Green (we all know Donnie is going after him), Redick (unlikely but you never know he might stick around), Winslow, Patty Mills, Tony Snell. 

I can see the Mavs trying to trade Powell+Burke to free up money to go after someone at the 12-15mm range though.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 04-02-2021

You guys are right.

Look at how washed up Dipo is guarding Curry:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOLsqCa5PsU

Clearly not the same player before, just sad to watch.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 11:09 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: So, I'm trying something different this season.  Collins is a bum.  He hates dogs and children.  No way he comes here.


Smile


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace this summer - omahen - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 11:30 AM)juanc Wrote: 1. Is he the 3rd guy, that would make this team a contender?
2. Is he worth the max? What is he worth in your opinion?
3. Do you realy think that we need to add that 3rd star now?

1. Who knows. He certainly is way better than anything we have at PF.
2. No, but he will sign max or very close to max contract
3. I think yes. We have arguably top 5 player in the league and a decent Robin. If we think that we are still very far away, than perhaps those guys are not top5 and very decent Robin.

(04-02-2021, 12:29 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: I really like Collins.

I don't think he is worth anywhere close to blowing up the team. If we theoretically had to give them Brunson, trade away Maxi+DFS all to get Collins? Throw in multiple picks?

I agree. The only reasonable way I see is the Brogdon way. Basically Atlanta not prepared to match max contract and accept a FRP as a compensation to back off. It might be much easier if Atlanta fails in playoffs. I think players valuation will depend a lot on how they perform in playoffs. In any case, I would hope Mavs would be sending some salary away in a SnT (to Atlanta or third team) so that we can retain at least one of JRich/THJ.