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2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version

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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - Kammrath - 03-28-2021

(03-28-2021, 09:27 PM)cow Wrote: The  Mavs need to start playing moneyball.


100% with you on this.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-28-2021, 09:42 PM)DrMav Wrote: Why would Conley sign a short term deal with us? If he’s going to sign a deal like that, it would certainly be with a team that appears more poised to be an immediate contender, even if for less money. If the Jazz win it all this year (no chance IMO) maybe then he chases as much money as he can get.

The contenders won't have cap space for Conley.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-28-2021, 10:54 PM)Kammrath Wrote: 100% with you on this.

Remind me how many championships the A's won with moneyball?

I am pretty sure Mavs think they are doing some version of moneyball but also understand that it's a stars league and usually the team with the most stars wins.

The Mavs I think are right on that but their method of trying to add stars through free agency is the flawed thinking. They believe they can get a first tier free agent star with cap space despite being proven wrong over and over again.

Signing Curry was the one moneyball-type success move they have made recently and they already wasted it on J Rich. They were outsmarted by Morey who understood that starting 33-yr old Danny Green and long-time bench player Seth Curry was actually going to make them better and here we are.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - Time Machine Dirk - 03-29-2021

Okay, I have a question: What in the world is moneyball? Aren't we talking about basketball here? Smile Money can't ball, only people can. Am I right?


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-28-2021, 09:34 PM)loki Wrote: I'm not entirely opposed to Derozan. He's not my first choice though as he isn't the shooter or playmaker that Lowry is. I'm not convinced by his defense either.

I think if you can't get what you want there's always trades of course but even a guy like DeRozan who isn't a perfect fit could be a talent upgrade if you get him on a good deal. He would be a great 6th man but doesn't help you on defense.

Mavs are at a bit of a crossroads in that they probably want to be a balanced defensive/offensive team but it's an easier path to go all-in on offense and try to win that way. They might have to just collect the most offensive talent they can get on value contracts and then try to have a bench with some defensive stoppers they can deploy as needed. I think a healthy KP/Maxi frontcourt is not bad defensively. It's easy enough to upgrade backup PF/C to someone who can play defense and rebound.

Getting 2-way guards and wings is tough because that's what everybody wants and needs. We have DFS who is sometimes 3 and sometimes D. J-Rich who is sort of the same. THJ who at least is a shooter. Brunson can score. Mavs could just be like let's go get some good scorers, facilitator guards/wings and figure out defense later (ie Bey/Green being ready to join the rotation eventually).


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - SleepingHero - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 09:09 AM)Time Machine Dirk Wrote: Okay, I have a question: What in the world is moneyball? Aren't we talking about basketball here? Smile Money can't ball, only people can. Am I right?


lol.

If you are genuinely wondering, moneyball is a method of building a professional baseball team that was pioneered by Oakland A's GM Billy Beane. Basically the entire method relies on finding the cheapest undervalued players that can get on base. 

The result was that the A's fielded a competitive roster that managed to go to several straight postseasons, but did so on nearly 50% less salary than similarly performing teams. Unfortunately, the A's never won it all and lost several heartbreakers.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - SleepingHero - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 09:02 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: Signing Curry was the one moneyball-type success move they have made recently and they already wasted it on J Rich. They were outsmarted by Morey who understood that starting 33-yr old Danny Green and long-time bench player Seth Curry was actually going to make them better and here we are.

I mean remind me how long the Mavs waited for Danny Green 2 summers ago? They wanted to start him and bring Curry off the bench.

I don't think they were outsmarted, moreso undervalued what an historic shooter can bring to your offense. JRich has been a bit underwhelming at times, but also comparatively is having a better individual season than Curry.
Further I think the JJ Reddick trade was them righting their wrong and basically creating their own Green/Curry rotation.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - khaled1987 - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 09:15 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: lol.

If you are genuinely wondering, moneyball is a method of building a professional baseball team that was pioneered by Oakland A's GM Billy Beane. Basically the entire method relies on finding the cheapest undervalued players that can get on base. 

The result was that the A's fielded a competitive roster that managed to go to several straight postseasons, but did so on nearly 50% less salary than similarly performing teams. Unfortunately, the A's never won it all and lost several heartbreakers.

Thanks man, I actually thought it was entirely something else


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - luka_skywalker_77 - 03-29-2021

Must be nice to have all that capspace to do nothing with. Let's be honest; we KNOW they aren't going to sign any big free agents. Most likely, they'll simply overpay their own guys and sign a few 2nd and 3rd tier talents to bigger contracts than they deserve. 

Rinse repeat. 

I want to believe in something different, but this FO is pretty locked into a certain mode of thinking that produces oddly similar results (while they do their best to look puzzled each and every time at the results).


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - ClutchDirk - 03-29-2021

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2938672-small-market-nba-teams-concerned-about-buyouts-helping-the-rich-get-richer


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - michaeltex - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 10:23 AM)khaled1987 Wrote: Thanks man, I actually thought it was entirely something else

Moneyball also involves advanced analytics to find the undervalued performers in the first place. Oakland was doing it when nobody else was, now everybody has an analyst team on staff. 

Personally, I think it has a use, but still needs the "eyes and ears" test to validate results. I think of "Trouble with the Curve" as an example of you you can get in love with spreadsheet analysis for decision making that isn't validated by what's really going on.

There are 3 types of falsehoods: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics - Mark Twain (and a host of others)


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - michaeltex - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 12:25 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2938672-small-market-nba-teams-concerned-about-buyouts-helping-the-rich-get-richer

OK, my off-the-wall idea is to allow lower standing teams to match any offer submitted to a post-TDL release by a higher placed team and award the contract to the lower placed team. That would force a higher placed team to avoid low-ball offers because a potential player could get snatched by a lower team for the same money.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - cow - 03-29-2021

(03-28-2021, 10:52 PM)Branduil Wrote: I don't understand why people keep suggesting Derozan. He can't shoot so he can't play with Luka off-ball, it's a non-starter.

Because he can create his own shot and consistently gives you 20 a night.  Yes he has warts but I'd love, love, love to make him a super sixth man.  I'm just not sure he's ready for that role in his career.  He's also 4 years younger or so than Lowry.  My preference would be neither but if we are going with old dudes, I wouldn't mind him.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - cow - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 09:02 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: Remind me how many championships the A's won with moneyball?

It's more about taking analytics they are gathering (Haralabos Voulgaris) and then creating targets to chase in free agency rather than spin their tires chasing big names.  I think you could recruit the names I listed fairly easily, at least compared to the big names we've typically chased in the pass.  And while the A's never won a championship, baseball isn't basketball and I'm not sure I'd put anyone on those A's teams at the level of comparative talent to Luka.  Further, we've all long debated fit next to Luka.  Some people want to go after a big three and others (myself included) want a team of RoCo/Morris/Tucker level players around him.  Moneyball would let you accomplish the latter.  Against the moneyball idea would be the depth of talent in the sports.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 01:22 PM)cow Wrote: It's more about taking analytics they are gathering (Haralabos Voulgaris) and then creating targets to chase in free agency rather than spin their tires chasing big names.  I think you could recruit the names I listed fairly easily, at least compared to the big names we've typically chased in the pass.  And while the A's never won a championship, baseball isn't basketball and I'm not sure I'd put anyone on those A's teams at the level of comparative talent to Luka.  Further, we've all long debated fit next to Luka.  Some people want to go after a big three and others (myself included) want a team of RoCo/Morris/Tucker level players around him.  Moneyball would let you accomplish the latter.  Against the moneyball idea would be the depth of talent in the sports.

Ya I am not against the Moneyball approach actually. Mavs need to admit they are a second tier city that isn't going to get the big FAs like LeBron to come here on their own.

After they failed to get Kemba 2 years ago they actually did fall back on value deals, inking Curry and Delon Wright as their gets after missing out on Danny Green and maybe PatBev (altho much talked ab never got confirmed if they actually made an offer). So Curry was a win that summer but then also a loss in the sense that Mavs passed up Brogdan. The reason they could do multi-year deals is that they knew their next opportunity to spend money would be this offseason. Once they strike out on whoever they think wants to come here I expect them to fall-back on the Curry/moneyball approach. That is because the next window for spending cap space will not be until KP's opt-out year.

Mavs might sign guys on team-friendly contracts, make trades or perhaps go all in on somebody. I would be my money on failing to go all-in on somebody because as much as they like John Collins, I don't believe they will want to give up all the assets they would need to in order to get him.

There are lots of trade opportunities so I would not discount the idea of a Buddy Hield trade or something along those lines.

I know this board doesn't like guys over 30 and I get it but I think in Moneyball-ish terms these guys get undervalued because rebuilding teams don't want them but many of these guys are still productive and you can usually get them on short deals. Remember too that expiring contracts have value. If for example Powell had been an expiring contract, Andre Drummond would likely be on the Mavs not the Lakers right now. Take that for what it's worth.

Guys like Conley, DeRozan, Green, Lowry, Ibaka, Millsap, Dragic, Patty Mills, PJ Tucker, Rudy Gay, Rose, and so on have been productive players into their 30's. Not coincidentally they are all on current playoff teams. Playoff teams tend to want these guys. Contenders tend to even want washed up buyout guys like Griffin and Aldridge.

So ya I am not for or against young/old, its just when you target a guy that is 25 and productive you have double or triple the amount of teams after that player and the risk can actually be higher because you tend to have to pay that guy more dollars and more years. The years are actually a bigger problem than the dollars.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-28-2021, 09:27 PM)cow Wrote: Here would be my shopping list:  THT, Holmes, and one of Howard/McGee.  I also wouldn't mind looking at TJ McConnell.  That gives you youth and some flexibility to trade the likes of DFS and Brunson should need the arise.  Those are names that I think we could have some success recruiting.

Is TJ UFA? Seems like he is. I love his game.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - cow - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 02:02 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: I know this board doesn't like guys over 30 and I get it but I think in Moneyball-ish terms these guys get undervalued because rebuilding teams don't want them but many of these guys are still productive and you can usually get them on short deals. Remember too that expiring contracts have value. If for example Powell had been an expiring contract, Andre Drummond would likely be on the Mavs not the Lakers right now. Take that for what it's worth.

I don't think most of us hate guys over 30, it's a balance though.  Part of the reason Lowry didn't get moved at the TDL, if rumors are to be believed, is that he wanted a 2YR 25m per extension for one last big pay day.  He'd be 36 and 37 in those years.  Those types of deals are okay if you are that piece away and gong for it (Conley to Utah or CP3 to Phoenix) but we aren't there yet.  On the flip side, this past season if had you offered Dwight Howard 2YR at 3-4M per, he'd have probably accepted and you'd have an every game contributor.  I think your want to try to invest your big money right now, if at all possible, into someone that can play with Luka/KP for at least 4 years.  And I do think because we aren't a destination location, we are going to have to pay a little better than the competition to get deals done.  Again, that's a fine line.

(03-29-2021, 02:18 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Is TJ UFA? Seems like he is. I love his game.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/indiana-pacers/tj-mcconnell-18252/


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-28-2021, 10:34 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Why is Conley even a suggestion? After he switched teams, it took him a mulligan year to get on track with that new team. There are guys like that in the NBA. I believe JRich to be one of them, only, we're going through the mulligan year with JRich now. After Conley's mulligan year he'll be 36 and we'll be wanting to trade him after that year as well!

This isn't how basketball works. Not every player has a "mulligan year." Some players fit in great, some take time, some never pan out. Delon Wright did not get a mulligan year for better or for worse. He wasn't a bad player, but wasn't a fit for the Mavs so he got moved along. J Rich is more of an open question but not trending in the right direction. There is no guarantee he is going to pan out.

The Jazz got Mike Conley on a high risk (ish), high reward (ish) type trade in 2019. They bundled mostly stuff + a protected first to get him. He got a mulligan year because he at 30 mil/yr for 2 years he was untradable. Luckily for them he is having a good year this year and is helping them win basketball games.

I am not against those type of big swings, but the scenario I am pitching is not that necessarily. I think there are some FAs each year that are 30+ that would like to go to a contender and most of those contender's are over the cap so the way you can get them as a 2nd tier city is simply having more money than MLE (or in some cases more than vet min) to make it interesting for them.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 02:24 PM)cow Wrote: I don't think most of us hate guys over 30, it's a balance though.  Part of the reason Lowry didn't get moved at the TDL, if rumors are to be believed, is that he wanted a 2YR 25m per extension for one last big pay day.  He'd be 36 and 37 in those years.  Those types of deals are okay if you are that piece away and gong for it (Conley to Utah or CP3 to Phoenix) but we aren't there yet.  On the flip side, this past season if had you offered Dwight Howard 2YR at 3-4M per, he'd have probably accepted and you'd have an every game contributor.  I think your want to try to invest your big money right now, if at all possible, into someone that can play with Luka/KP for at least 4 years.  And I do think because we aren't a destination location, we are going to have to pay a little better than the competition to get deals done.  Again, that's a fine line.

I am not advocating for giving old guys 50 mil dollars and especially not for trading for those guys. I do think Lowry is a special player and will get a lot of money from the Raptors or a team that isn't the Mavs (also I thought Masai was a genius?).

I don't believe in this BS that you are trying to find guys that can play with Luka/KP for 4 years. That's just not how the NBA works. Each season is a new opportunity. If you can draft a guy that you own the rights to for a long time or get an RFA, great that gives you a longer window but most deals aren't done that way. You can only play one season at a time and there's only one championship at a time so each year you build the best roster that you can.


RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $25.7M - $37.3M in capspace this summer - StepBackJay - 03-29-2021

(03-29-2021, 02:24 PM)cow Wrote:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/indiana-pacers/tj-mcconnell-18252/

I would have thought TJ's 3% was better than it is. His mid-range game the other night was great. That 3% would be a problem however.