(01-25-2020, 12:02 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: THJ

(01-25-2020, 12:11 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: But that is not how it works. No team in the league is running all starters vs all bench lineups. Bench also doesn´t exclusively play vs bench. The Mavs only have to players averaging 30+ (starter minutes), 3 if you include DFS (29min). They have 5 more players averaging 20+ minutes.
If you think that lineups without KP and Doncic are getting blown out I would advise you take a look at lineup data. Overall the team is outscoring opponents without both on the floor and there are multiple lineups without them that have great  +/- numbers.

(01-25-2020, 11:33 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote:

(01-25-2020, 11:29 AM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: That said, we need to figure out a way to cash in Lee/TPE balance for an asset.

I'm greedy that way... Barnes has already netted Jackson, Wright, and WCS. Who would not have taken that deal last year???

Interesting.

(01-25-2020, 12:15 PM)omahen Wrote: Sato, as good as he is, can't replace this. I see him more as a replacement for Wright or even Curry role. OPJ is extreme risk. Injured all the time, huge contract. I am not really sure we need to take this risk to get Young and Sato. I am talking OPJ only if Markannen is on the table.

(01-25-2020, 12:50 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Dan, I generally agree with your points about the bench, but we also have to acknowledge that the bench has likely been permanently broken by Powell's injury. WCS will start if Rick chooses to be intelligent about it, but he won't play as many minutes as Powell did and Maxi will have to play more. If Rick chooses not to be bright, then we either start small like in the last game or Maxi becomes a starter. Either hurts the bench. 

Regarding the Curry-Wright-Brunson logjam (any problems with our bench have to do with three of the four main guys being relatively small guards), I have a feeling that the Mavs were slotting THJ as a bench player coming into the season. The bench makes a lot more on-paper sense - and signing Wright makes a lot more on-paper sense - if the starting lineup were Luka-Wright-DFS-KP-Powell and the bench were Brunson-Curry-THJ-Maxi. I think you can throw Jackson in there in the sense that the Mavs planned on him being a lot better than he has been this year (and he was in November, to be fair). THJ turned out to be our third-best player and a smashingly good starter next to Luka. That damages the bench. I think it's clear that, by next year, one of Wright or Brunson has to be gone for value. We'll have problems on many levels otherwise.

(01-25-2020, 12:20 PM)burekemde Wrote:

(01-25-2020, 12:11 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: But that is not how it works. No team in the league is running all starters vs all bench lineups. Bench also doesn´t exclusively play vs bench. The Mavs only have to players averaging 30+ (starter minutes), 3 if you include DFS (29min). They have 5 more players averaging 20+ minutes.
If you think that lineups without KP and Doncic are getting blown out I would advise you take a look at lineup data. Overall the team is outscoring opponents without both on the floor and there are multiple lineups without them that have great  +/- numbers.

Again, PPG does not mean much. What means is how many games you win. If you rack up one game ton of points, and several games without, it means nothing. You will outscore your opponents, have good PPG and same with +/-. But you still dont contribute to winning many games. Look up how many leads they blew. If we both cant find the stats, then we dont have it. This is why "outscoring opponents" and PPG and +/- is unreliable. 

Bench has blown away so many leads consistently over a very long period and that was easy to see. They are not horrible, I will agree on that. But certainly not great as well. Lots of room for improvement that needs to happen.

(01-25-2020, 01:55 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: This would have sounded insane prior to this season, but he's changed my opinion of him drastically. I hope he's a Mav for a long long time.

(01-25-2020, 01:55 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: I hope he's a Mav for a long long time.

(01-25-2020, 01:55 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: I absolutely don't want THJ traded unless it nets a true 3rd star.

(01-25-2020, 01:07 PM)cjeter24 Wrote:

(01-25-2020, 12:50 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Dan, I generally agree with your points about the bench, but we also have to acknowledge that the bench has likely been permanently broken by Powell's injury. WCS will start if Rick chooses to be intelligent about it, but he won't play as many minutes as Powell did and Maxi will have to play more. If Rick chooses not to be bright, then we either start small like in the last game or Maxi becomes a starter. Either hurts the bench.

Regarding the Curry-Wright-Brunson logjam (any problems with our bench have to do with three of the four main guys being relatively small guards), I have a feeling that the Mavs were slotting THJ as a bench player coming into the season. The bench makes a lot more on-paper sense - and signing Wright makes a lot more on-paper sense - if the starting lineup were Luka-Wright-DFS-KP-Powell and the bench were Brunson-Curry-THJ-Maxi. I think you can throw Jackson in there in the sense that the Mavs planned on him being a lot better than he has been this year (and he was in November, to be fair). THJ turned out to be our third-best player and a smashingly good starter next to Luka. That damages the bench. I think it's clear that, by next year, one of Wright or Brunson has to be gone for value. We'll have problems on many levels otherwise.

The Powell injury could have actually improved the bench in the long run if you think about it....
We all agree Powell was better suited on the bench right? If WCS gives you similar production and it's all on the bench unlike Powell, the bench is better than ever.

I'm curious if the Mavs may have found a bit of something against Portland. DFS primarily at the 4 with another shooter at guard. The offense was getting great shots alll night long even when Portland was cutting into the deficit, they had great looks.

Now what if we trade for a combo forward like ROCO or OPJ?
You have the same dynamics but you can either move the shooting guard back to the bench. You likely would be dealing Brunson or Wright anyways so it would be needed.

You have a true 5 out system with an improved defense in the starting 5 as well since Powell was fairly meh defensively and not a great shooter. and OPJ/ROCO are pretty good defenders and shooters.

The only thing you lose is rim rolling. It's a big loss but it can somewhat be mitigated by your rotations too.

(01-25-2020, 01:49 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I don´t buy it. The Mavs are blowing leads but just blaming it on the bench isn´t working because the Mavs lineups are mixed up. Bench players next to starters and vice versa. At some point the sample size for +/- reaches a point where individual games barely make an impact. It´s not like they outscore opponents by 50 in one game and get outscored by 5 in the next 10 games.
You are basing your entire argument around an opinion but don´t provide any facts to back it up. That´s what happens in every single gamethread. The opponent grabs an offensive rebound. Next to post are telling us that the Mavs cannot rebound. Fact check reveals that they are a pretty good rebounding team.

This is my last attempt: Bench net rating

vs Celtics1: -5.6
vs Celtics2: +4.1
vs Nets: + 11.0
vs Hornets: -9.1
vs Bulls: +3.8
vs Cavaliers1: +45.7
vs Cavaliers2: +23.6
vs Nuggets1: + 13.6
vs Nuggets2: -7.1
vs Pistons: -9.9
vs Warriors1: +15.7
vs Warriors2: +13.5
vs Warriors3: +0.1
vs Rockets: +0.1
vs Clippers1: -6.0
vs Clippers2: +2.4
vs Lakers1: +12.0
vs Lakers2: -3.6
vs Lakers3: -1.3
vs Lakers4: -8.2
vs Grizzlies: +19.3
vs Heat: +1.3
vs Bucks: -3.0
vs Timberwolves: +22.8
vs Pelicans1: +32.8
vs Pelicans2: +5.0
vs Pelicans3: +22.2
vs Knicks1: -2.5
vs Knicks2: -5.0
vs Thunder: +0.1
vs Magic: +4.4
vs 76ers: -0.8
vs Suns: +9.7
vs Blazers1: -3.0
vs Blazers2: +4.5
vs Blazers3: +0.2
vs Kings1: -3.3
vs Kings2: -10.8
vs Spurs1: -1.8
vs Spurs2: -1.0
vs Raptors 1: 0.0
vs Raptors 2: -13.4
vs Wizards: +10.6

24 positive net ratings
19 negative net ratings
1 neutral

I am done for today. Time to take a break.

(01-25-2020, 02:57 PM)burekemde Wrote: And if we add lets say Covington and DFS goes to bench i am pretty sure they will perform better.

(01-25-2020, 02:57 PM)burekemde Wrote:

(01-25-2020, 01:49 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I don´t buy it. The Mavs are blowing leads but just blaming it on the bench isn´t working because the Mavs lineups are mixed up. Bench players next to starters and vice versa. At some point the sample size for +/- reaches a point where individual games barely make an impact. It´s not like they outscore opponents by 50 in one game and get outscored by 5 in the next 10 games.
You are basing your entire argument around an opinion but don´t provide any facts to back it up. That´s what happens in every single gamethread. The opponent grabs an offensive rebound. Next to post are telling us that the Mavs cannot rebound. Fact check reveals that they are a pretty good rebounding team.

This is my last attempt: Bench net rating

vs Celtics1: -5.6
vs Celtics2: +4.1
vs Nets: + 11.0
vs Hornets: -9.1
vs Bulls: +3.8
vs Cavaliers1: +45.7
vs Cavaliers2: +23.6
vs Nuggets1: + 13.6
vs Nuggets2: -7.1
vs Pistons: -9.9
vs Warriors1: +15.7
vs Warriors2: +13.5
vs Warriors3: +0.1
vs Rockets: +0.1
vs Clippers1: -6.0
vs Clippers2: +2.4
vs Lakers1: +12.0
vs Lakers2: -3.6
vs Lakers3: -1.3
vs Lakers4: -8.2
vs Grizzlies: +19.3
vs Heat: +1.3
vs Bucks: -3.0
vs Timberwolves: +22.8
vs Pelicans1: +32.8
vs Pelicans2: +5.0
vs Pelicans3: +22.2
vs Knicks1: -2.5
vs Knicks2: -5.0
vs Thunder: +0.1
vs Magic: +4.4
vs 76ers: -0.8
vs Suns: +9.7
vs Blazers1: -3.0
vs Blazers2: +4.5
vs Blazers3: +0.2
vs Kings1: -3.3
vs Kings2: -10.8
vs Spurs1: -1.8
vs Spurs2: -1.0
vs Raptors 1: 0.0
vs Raptors 2: -13.4
vs Wizards: +10.6

24 positive net ratings
19 negative net ratings
1 neutral

I am done for today. Time to take a break.

dirkfan, thanks for digging this up, must have taken a while. It does support what i am trying to convey. Almost half of the games, the bench are losing the battle against the others. Of the 24 "positive" ratings, by far majority fall into the group of around +0.1-4.  Thus they are very similar level to the other teams bench.

Their main rating and "PPG" comes from very few games where they were flat out amazing: +22, +33, +23, +19, +24, +45. Thats GREAT games. That inflates all the total stats over the season. The rest of season is either negative, mediocore or just slightly in positive. Pretty much close to the other teams bench or even negative.

To make illustration a great great bench is the one that consistently could pull of +4-+10 ratings. That would be winning games regularly for us.

In conclusion they are mediocore or slightly above average. I just dont see how they are one of the best bench units in NBA, by these stats or by eye test. We had high expectations that this would be the best bench unit in NBA. It is not like this for sure.

Also the great games they had must also not be taken away, so I am going to give you and them the credit. They are not horrible indeed. But they can improve. And if we add lets say Covington and DFS goes to bench i am pretty sure they will perform better.

(01-25-2020, 03:47 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: he last guy I like so far is Tony Snell