(10-22-2024, 12:26 AM)F Gump Wrote: This is not a bargain, based on Hardy's track record to date. He's still a 3rd stringer. He was mediocre as a rookie and his shooting numbers regressed last year (he also was used fewer mpg in yr 2 than as a rookie, which is informative). He is allergic to playing defense. He has a few good moments that are offset by a whole lot of mediocre ones. 

Those are the sort of things that get you somewhere between minimum and twice that amount.

The contract tells the truth. Both sides saw it as a bit of an overpay, which the Mavs were willing to offer in exchange for an agreement by Hardy to have a TO (because an overpay to some degree is how a TO gets done). But it also tells us that neither the Mavs nor JH must see some sort of breakout about to happen, and if that's the case, why are they wasting 5.5-6M a year on a player who isn't good enough to get into the rotation?.

(10-22-2024, 02:01 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: It´s amazing how great you are with the CBA, but how poorly you can translate it to the value of players and forward projections.

Here is a fun fact for you.

Year 2:

14 MPG
5.6 PPG
4.0 RPG
1.2 APG
49/29/63 shooting

Signed a 150/5 extension after year 3.

Hardy just completed year 2. He´s clearly the 4th guard with Exum out, maybe even the 3rd guard in the rotation given how awful Dinwiddie has looked and will see minutes accordingly. Furthermore we all know Luka and Kyrie will miss games. More minutes will likely translate to THJ numbers for Hardy. THJ earned 17M a year, which he signed against a much lower salary cap. 6M is a massive steal. It´s impossible for Hardy to underperform it, but in two months it could easily be one of the biggest value contracts in the league. It´s a great trade chip, too.

(10-22-2024, 12:26 AM)F Gump Wrote: This is not a bargain, based on Hardy's track record to date. He's still a 3rd stringer. He was mediocre as a rookie and his shooting numbers regressed last year (he also was used fewer mpg in yr 2 than as a rookie, which is informative). He is allergic to playing defense. He has a few good moments that are offset by a whole lot of mediocre ones. 

Those are the sort of things that get you somewhere between minimum and twice that amount.

The contract tells the truth. Both sides saw it as a bit of an overpay, which the Mavs were willing to offer in exchange for an agreement by Hardy to have a TO (because an overpay to some degree is how a TO gets done). But it also tells us that neither the Mavs nor JH must see some sort of breakout about to happen, and if that's the case, why are they wasting 5.5-6M a year on a player who isn't good enough to get into the rotation?.

(10-22-2024, 09:41 AM)mvossman Wrote: I'm not sure you should be throwing shade at other posters while continually comparing Hardy to better players.  When it comes to player future projections, you seem to be the board optimist and Forrest is the pessimist.  

I like the deal, especially with the team option, but it is possible for him to underperform it.  If he continues to regress shooting, give up too many turnovers and play bad defense he could be a near unplayable negative on the court.  I don't think that is going to happen, but it could.  We have seen teams pay assets to get out from under contracts smaller than this with the new harsher CBA.

(10-22-2024, 09:49 AM)mvossman Wrote: I'm curious where you came down on the Brunson extension discussion a year before he walked.

(10-22-2024, 11:22 AM)F Gump Wrote: The summer before, I thought he would be available but it would take most or all of the MLE to sign JB.

I based that number on good regular seasons and progress as an NBA playmaker but questions about his playoff potential, especially whether he could be a long-term fit next to Luka, and what number would leave him as a trade asset if he didn't improve. Once the season started and he showed a bit more, I was hoping for them to lock him up asap. I would assume that the Mavs, seeing more behind the scenes than we get to see, would have had enough data to know to lock him up while MLE deal was still available.

From the Mavs POV, I think they were wanting to keep him as a trade chip to use that season, and small salary would add to the value, perhaps. Ultimately he proved too valuable to trade.

If you think I am unrealistic with how I look at these things, that's fine, but fwiw I pretty much nailed the Green number at or below the MLE (at a time when the discussions here were seeing 17M/yr and 20M/yr and some even higher) based on the same issues I see with Hardy -- which is, you shouldn't assume that signing a player is going to make him develop on a much better trajectory than he's already showing. There's a clamor to pay him based on what we hope we will be, not on what he is, and I think that's bad negotiating.

I have slightly more positivity about Hardy's chance to grow than I did with JG, based solely on the fact JG had 3 years and JH has only had 2. But neither showed any real progress in the year immediately prior to the signing, which is concerning.

(10-22-2024, 11:49 AM)ballsrchr Wrote: I'm also in the "this is a steal" club for Hardy.  I think he'll make a lot of improvement and impact this year.  I'm gonna hide and watch...

(10-22-2024, 10:18 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: I was on the Jalen Johnson train before it had wheels, but the facts that he regressed from Year 1 to Year 2 as Forrest likes to point out, though the sample size for either player is ridiculously small anyway. It´s much easier (at age 22) to turn from a $6M into a $30M player with opportunity than a negative trade value. Hardy will get his opportunity this season.

Interestingly basketball reference has a 2024/2025 projection tool.

For Hardy assuming 24 MPG (which is slightly less than THJ) he comes out at 13.3 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.6 APG shooting 43/38/80. I´d say that is pretty fair considering his production so far and the fact that his minutes should increase.

This is not a Javale McGee situation.

(10-22-2024, 11:54 AM)mvossman Wrote: My recollection on Josh Green is that there was a group of folks that had some crazy high numbers, there was a group of folks that liked him around MLE (including me) and I though your take was that he was not worth the MLE.  Maybe I am remembering this wrong, but I thought you were one of the few folks that did not like that extension?

I don't think you are unrealistic, just pessimistic, especially when it comes to young players.

(10-22-2024, 12:03 PM)mvossman Wrote: I think you are underestimating how rare it is for 22 year old second round pick to turn into 30M player.  My guess is 6M players are more likely to flame out than hit that mark.

I'm not sure why we are assuming 24 MPG for Hardy?  Timmy's primary replacement is going to be Klay.  Even with Exum out minutes are going to be tight, and there will be a premium on defense coming off the bench, which does not play in his favor.

Not surprising you use an extreme example (straw man) to make your point.  I hated that signing (like everyone else) while liking this one.  Does not mean this one is guaranteed to pan out.