It seems that across the board the Mavs are looking disjointed and out of sorts. What is going on with them?
My take:
1)
Luka: The Mavs best player is overweight and out of shape. He is the tide that lifts all boats and so all the boats are "underperforming" compared to what we are used to.
2)
KP: The Mavs 2nd best player is out with injury. KP is the tide that lifts all the boats defensively and with spacing, and so all the boats are "underperforming" defensively and spacing is suffering.
So everything below assumes that the tides of Luka and KP are not helping to their full extent....
- JRich is showing himself to be the Mavs 3rd best player. It is promising to me that he still looks solid in his role with no KP and with Luka not being himself.
- DP was the Mavs 3rd most impactful player at times last year and he is now coming off an achilles tear, adding to him looking really poor.
- THJ seems to be suffering from knowing this is a contract year (shot hunting).
- Maxi seems to be really down, even more than what the impact of KP or Luka might make, but maybe not.
I think if we are patient and let Luka get into shape and let KP get back, then I suspect that most everything we are seeing that looks "off" will start fixing itself.
The question is: What will be the Mavs record by the time that happens? Will the chance for home court in the playoffs be long gone at that point?
Great stuff.
I’m a known THJ apologist, and I agree his start has been rough. I have a different opinion on the cause than you do, but I’m not confident I’m right. If he really IS going out there trying to get numbers because of a contract year, then he is dumb, dumb, dumb, and should be moved out of here sooner than the deadline.
(12-26-2020, 02:29 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I have a different opinion on the cause
Remind me your take on THJ this season?
(12-26-2020, 02:34 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Remind me your take on THJ this season?
Too early to call it a take, but...
It seems clear to me that Luka is being played off ball more to start this season. Whether that is something Carlisle WANTS to establish as a priority early on to avoid having to rely solely on Luka playing on ball, or whether it’s just a reaction to Luka being slightly off as you mentioned above, I’m not sure. But, Richardson has been on ball a LOT already, and THJ has been on ball a little, too (yuck on that one). Plus, Brunson and Burke have both already played meaningful stretches with Luka and either THJ or Richardson on the court.
Additionally, it seems to me that DFS, THJ, Powell and Kleber have all started the season attacking off the dribble more than last year, even in situations where they’re not the creator in a given set. Again, point of early emphasis, or reaction to Luka being slightly less effective to start the season? It’s only two games, so tough to tell, imo.
I think it’s possible that Carlisle is giving people a chance to expand their offensive responsibilities early on, and maybe even asking them to do so, in an effort to add more wrinkles to last year’s offense, which was really effective but actually limited to a few really well executed concepts. Alternatively, I also think it’s possible that these things are just players trying to fill the void created when the Luka/Powell actions don’t create penetration/open looks right away like they did last season. If either of these theories is the case, then THJ’s frustrating on ball adventures will decrease over time, due either to Carlisle dimming his green light a bit, or to the things the offense is trying to accomplish breaking down less frequently.
But, I fully admit it’s POSSIBLE that what you’re suggesting, that THJ is going rogue and trying to earn himself a bigger contract next summer, is leading to some questionable choices on his part. IF that’s the case, I strongly feel that he’s actively working against his own self interest, as I agree that he’s simply not an effective enough player off of the bounce to help his team win games. That’s how he had to play in NY, and he started to salvage his career here last year by playing more of a Robinson/Redick role. I have been operating under the assumption, since last season, that he UNDERSTOOD this, and that has been the basis for much of my support of him. If I’m wrong about that (very possible) then he needs to go.
Maybe Maxi's just living up to his name and it's that time of the month.
I mean, I thought he looked damn good in preseason.
(12-26-2020, 02:50 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ] (12-26-2020, 02:34 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Remind me your take on THJ this season?
Too early to call it a take, but...
It seems clear to me that Luka is being played off ball more to start this season. Whether that is something Carlisle WANTS to establish as a priority early on to avoid having to rely solely on Luka playing on ball, or whether it’s just a reaction to Luka being slightly off as you mentioned above, I’m not sure. But, Richardson has been on ball a LOT already, and THJ has been on ball a little, too (yuck on that one). Plus, Brunson and Burke have both already played meaningful stretches with Luka and either THJ or Richardson on the court.
Additionally, it seems to me that DFS, THJ, Powell and Kleber have all started the season attacking off the dribble more than last year, even in situations where they’re not the creator in a given set. Again, point of early emphasis, or reaction to Luka being slightly less effective to start the season? It’s only two games, so tough to tell, imo.
I think it’s possible that Carlisle is giving people a chance to expand their offensive responsibilities early on, and maybe even asking them to do so, in an effort to add more wrinkles to last year’s offense, which was really effective but actually limited to a few really well executed concepts. Alternatively, I also think it’s possible that these things are just players trying to fill the void created when the Luka/Powell actions don’t create penetration/open looks right away like they did last season. If either of these theories is the case, then THJ’s frustrating on ball adventures will decrease over time, due either to Carlisle dimming his green light a bit, or to the things the offense is trying to accomplish breaking down less frequently.
But, I fully admit it’s POSSIBLE that what you’re suggesting, that THJ is going rogue and trying to earn himself a bigger contract next summer, is leading to some questionable choices on his part. IF that’s the case, I strongly feel that he’s actively working against his own self interest, as I agree that he’s simply not an effective enough player off of the bounce to help his team win games. That’s how he had to play in NY, and he started to salvage his career here last year by playing more of a Robinson/Redick role. I have been operating under the assumption, since last season, that he UNDERSTOOD this, and that has been the basis for much of my support of him. If I’m wrong about that (very possible) then he needs to go.
There have been about three possessions, at least, this year, where THJ received a shot for an open three, hesitated, and dribbled into the arc for a long two that he missed. If the coach is telling him to do that stupid crap, that's on the coach. If THJ is trying to make himself look like the creator of his own shot (when he all but can't create his own shot), then that's big time on him.
Getting embarrassed badly when it comes to securing rebounds...
(12-26-2020, 03:08 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]Getting embarrassed badly when it comes to securing rebounds...
That’s definitely cause for concern. I hope it’s fixable.
I answered other. I refuse to draw any conclusions after two games against very good opponents. Off course missing KP is a huge factor, we can't dream of being a contender without our number two guy. Mavs lost 3 out of 4 against both Phoenix and Lakers last season, several times with a big difference. Both teams are arguably better this year while Mavs miss KP. I think Luka being out of shape is hugely blown out of proportions on this board. He was actually worse in four of last years losses against those two teams (two against each) then the performance he showed in these first two games.
I disagree with the premise of the OP that KP is our second best player. IMO, and I've been saying this since KP's arrival, KP is more indispensable for the Mavs' to win than Luka is. Without KP on the floor, the Mavs have very little chance of beating any of the top teams. I'd much rather play without Luka than without KP.
(12-26-2020, 03:31 PM)mtrot Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree with the premise of the OP that KP is our second best player. IMO, and I've been saying this since KP's arrival, KP is more indispensable for the Mavs' to win than Luka is. Without KP on the floor, the Mavs have very little chance of beating any of the top teams. I'd much rather play without Luka than without KP.
Wow. If you have such an opinion, than Mavs are using Luka totally wrong. Because he is just putting up stats and doesn't contribute to winning.
Sorry, but I totally disagree with such a claim.
(12-26-2020, 03:31 PM)mtrot Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree with the premise of the OP that KP is our second best player. IMO, and I've been saying this since KP's arrival, KP is more indispensable for the Mavs' to win than Luka is. Without KP on the floor, the Mavs have very little chance of beating any of the top teams. I'd much rather play without Luka than without KP.
On what are you basing this opinion?
Luka is fat. KP is hurt.
Outside of Richardson, these other guys are JAGs. We were down on talent against the Suns and Lakers. This team needs to continue to look to add dynamic talent I think they know that. By all reports, they're obsessed with adding a third star instead of just filling out the roster with more role players.
Re: the rebounding issues: we had two guys last year who averaged close to 10 rpg. One is out, and the other is averaging (over a tiny sample size, but check out the preseason as well) 4 rpg less than last year. That explains a lot.
(12-26-2020, 04:02 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Re: the rebounding issues: we had two guys last year who averaged close to 10 rpg. One is out, and the other is averaging (over a tiny sample size, but check out the preseason as well) 4 rpg less than last year. That explains a lot.
The way the Mavs are playing now, Luka may end up leading the team in rebounds, if something doesn't change.
(12-26-2020, 03:34 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]On what are you basing this opinion?
It's just my impression from past games when Luka was out and KP was in.
This team is not working as a "team." I see people missing assignments: sometimes I wonder if there are assignments. Effort has been lacking...in some but not all. Too much of what I call hero ball. Many players playing out of position. The line ups--suck...is all I can say. Piss poor help defense. What else? Ah...rebounding...has not been good. Did anyone else notice that against the Lakers Maxi played only 20 minutes in some questionable lineups and still had the most rebounds including one of the three offensive rebounds...and we needed rebounds. And before someone brings up +/- for any player...this stat relies on at least as much as who you play with as does individual play.
On a happy note this is all based on a small sample size. I think we are better than we've shown. I look for better days.
One other factor to look at is inexperience combining with short off-season.
Young , and better, team like Denver is suffering from this too. Sixers didn't look that great either and so is Celtics.
Mavs have young and inexperienced players, who all admitted they expected season to start in March and wasn't working out that much.
Veterans will be able to play through it, teams who had 9 months will do the same.
I think as season goes, Mavs will look much better, even when one of our 2 superstars miss a game.
They weren't going to beat the Lakers. They're competitive at full strength, but still at a disadvantage. The Brow and Lebron. Two, probably, top 5 in the league talents. They probably require off-night/indifference to lose games at this point.
Phoenix. For some reason a poor matchup for the Mavs, before this season. This season the Suns are better than they were last season. The Suns are beatable and in the Mavs category. Games between the two will depend on shots falling.
The Clippers, coming up. The Mavs are comparable. The Clips are slightly better, but beatable.
Too early for panic.
I really wished we have someone who made things difficult for AD...He is as much of a unicorn as KP is..
To Luka's credit, he did have a few solid defensive possessions on Lebron, Lebron just made some difficult shots