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(12-31-2020, 06:15 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks for the work!


The ones that really stand out to me are Maxi (almost all threes, no shots in the paint), and DFS (69% threes). (Hardaway plays like a guard, even if he is nominally a SF, so I don't include his 59% threes as an aberration.)

Any conclusion as to whether this is a directed strategy, a result of opposing defenses, or just random?
I would say it’s partially strategy and partly personnel.  I just don’t think the Mavs have guys that are good at creating for themselves and have to rely on Luka too much.  I would defer to others that are much smarter than me but I wonder if the low mid range numbers might suggest that if you can run them off the line, they will just re-rack with Luka again.  It will give me something else to watch for next week.

One more point of clarification is that the totals are only for the players listed and not the entire team.
(12-31-2020, 06:15 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks for the work!


The ones that really stand out to me are Maxi (almost all threes, no shots in the paint), and DFS (69% threes). (Hardaway plays like a guard, even if he is nominally a SF, so I don't include his 59% threes as an aberration.)

Any conclusion as to whether this is a directed strategy, a result of opposing defenses, or just random?
I would also add that even though Brunson drives a lot of people crazy on this board, I think he is doing exactly what Rick wants him to do which is be the Luka of the second unit.  Look at the similarities between his numbers and Luka’s.
(12-31-2020, 06:05 PM)RDB Wrote: [ -> ]I had some free time today and thought I would test a thought.  The thought is that the Mavs are lacking guys that can create their own shot and rely too much on Luka.  While I don’t know that the numbers below answer my question, I thought I would share.  I compiled numbers from the shot charts for the first 4 games on NBA.com and the chart below shows the numbers and percentages from various ranges.

Player.        Tot shots.      3 Pt.       Mid range.       Paint.        Paint made
Kleber.            17.            16.               1.               0.                 0
                                       94%.           6%.            0%.              0%
Powell.            14.             2.                0.              12.                7
                                       14%.           0%.            86%.            56%
Stein.              11.             1.                1.               9.                 5
                                        9%.            9%.            82%.            56%
Johnson.          14.             5.                0.               9.                 4
                                        36%.          0%.            64%.             44%
Finley-Smith.    32.            22.               1.               9.                 5
                                        69%.          3%.            28%.             55%
Hardaway.        46.            27.               5.              14.                9
                                        59%.          11%.          30%.             64%
Richardson.      46.            24.               3.               19.               10
                                        52%.           7%.           41%.             53%
Luka.               73.            21                4                48.               28
                                        29%.           5%.           66%.             58%
Brunson.          32.            11.               2.               19.               11
                                        34%.           6%.           60%.             58%

Totals.             285.           132.            17.              139.              79
                                        46%.           6%.           48%.             57%

It’s interesting that 94% of the shots came from 3pt or the paint but I don’t know how that compares to other teams.  I would also be curious how many other teams have so few shots in the paint from their bigs.  I know it’s a small sample but I thought it was interesting.

For some reason this graft made me think of a trade for a mid-range player.  THJ and Maxi for DeRozan works dollar wise.
Pretty sure the low number of midrange shots is by design. I think that’s pretty much every team’s analytics-driven dream.
(12-31-2020, 02:43 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]We also have same score as WC finalists and better score than a team that went to second round last season


Right, but despite their records, the Mavs have looked worse than the Nuggets in all of their games.  Their worst loss was to the full-team clippers which was 13 points.

The Mavs losses have been 4, 23, and 19. With 1 51 point win sandwiched in there.
So if you look at the losses one thing has been brutally obvious: We have no way of dealing with an opponent, if we don´t hit our shots at the rim (mostly Luka) and from three. We really lack the ability to grind our way into a game by offensive rebounding and defensive stops. If we want to reach the playoffs or go beyond this has to change. 

In my eyes the first part can´t be changed. But the defense can be improved. I don´t think our wing defense is  atrocious. I think you can see improvements. Of course Luka and THJ aren´t especially good, but still this shouldn´t be the issue. Frontcourt defense though has been absolutely ridiculous. Get Dwight Powell off the floor, never play Maxi as the only big (I´d view him as a tall wing not as a big man). That means we only have WCS as a bigman. He´s better than Powell not because he has quick feet, but he has length. 

Bottom line we NEED to add another defensive minded frontcourt player. I´d give up Brunson in a split second. But who can it be?
(12-31-2020, 07:55 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Right, but despite their records, the Mavs have looked worse than the Nuggets in all of their games.  Their worst loss was to the full-team clippers which was 13 points.

The Mavs losses have been 4, 23, and 19. With 1 51 point win sandwiched in there.


Denver lost to Sacramento twice. Not really something to brag about Smile
(12-31-2020, 07:55 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty sure the low number of midrange shots is by design. I think that’s pretty much every team’s analytics-driven dream.
Then we should be the envy of the league this year.  I just pulled up 4 teams and the per game numbers are:

Lakers - 15/game
Bucks - 15/game
Clippers - 14/game
Mave - 6.5/game
(12-31-2020, 08:17 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Denver lost to Sacramento twice. Not really something to brag about


I'm not bragging about Denver being better than the Mavericks moreso pointing out the issues between the teams are drastically different. 

I'm no expert on Denver but have watched their LAC game and their 2nd SAC game. From my observations as a casual fan, they are hurting the loss of Grant for sure. They need that versatile forward that can score in that spot. Will Barton also being a malcontent about coming off the bench is a problem. But those are quick fixes. The right trade can fix that problem tomorrow and the Nuggets are good to go.

The Mavs on the other hand? I don't even know where to start. Defense issues. Offense issues. Rotational issues. The roster makeup needs to be improved. But even that avenue has issues. The Mavs certainly need to make trades, but how many trades and for what? There's no consensus even here among some of the most hardcore Mavs fans. Some want a defensive PF. Others think we need a big. Others think we should focus on getting a good guard. Others think that the position doesn't even matter and it's all about potential fit.

See where I'm getting at? I'm not trying to be too reactionary but the problems we've been seeing so far aren't easy fixes. And the Mavs have a lot of them. Which is why other good teams having the same or worse record than the Mavs right now doesn't matter. 

I think the absence of KP is also having a larger effect than I originally gave it credit originally. We need him bad. Which is why Carlisle is suddenly saying within the next 2 weeks a KP return is likely. Mavs are ramping him back up because even they're starting to feel the heat.
(12-31-2020, 08:59 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not bragging about Denver being better than the Mavericks moreso pointing out the issues between the teams are drastically different. 

I'm no expert on Denver but have watched their LAC game and their 2nd SAC game. From my observations as a casual fan, they are hurting the loss of Grant for sure. They need that versatile forward that can score in that spot. Will Barton also being a malcontent about coming off the bench is a problem. But those are quick fixes. The right trade can fix that problem tomorrow and the Nuggets are good to go.

The Mavs on the other hand? I don't even know where to start. Defense issues. Offense issues. Rotational issues. The roster makeup needs to be improved. But even that avenue has issues. The Mavs certainly need to make trades, but how many trades and for what? There's no consensus even here among some of the most hardcore Mavs fans. Some want a defensive PF. Others think we need a big. Others think we should focus on getting a good guard. Others think that the position doesn't even matter and it's all about potential fit.

See where I'm getting at? I'm not trying to be too reactionary but the problems we've been seeing so far aren't easy fixes. And the Mavs have a lot of them. Which is why other good teams having the same or worse record than the Mavs right now doesn't matter. 

I think the absence of KP is also having a larger effect than I originally gave it credit originally. We need him bad. Which is why Carlisle is suddenly saying within the next 2 weeks a KP return is likely. Mavs are ramping him back up because even they're starting to feel the heat.

I agree 100%

If you consider how much better the non playoff teams have gotten in the West  too like Phoenix with Chris Paul. Sacramento added Haliburton, Whiteside, a healthy Bagley. You then have New Orleans getting much deeper. The best addition the Mavs made this offseason is Richardson whom we gave up something to get. 

I think its safe to say the Mavericks did not get better. We did not improve our roster and other teams did. The MBT over valued a lot of the talent we have on this team and continue to do so. I pointed out Delon Wright as a sample to what I meant he is averaged 12 ppg, 4 ass, 4 reb and shooting 500% from 3. He swapped him out for Burke which is another example of not getting better. 

They need to stop this wait for a star and start building out this roster.
(12-31-2020, 08:59 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]The Mavs on the other hand? I don't even know where to start. Defense issues. Offense issues. Rotational issues. The roster makeup needs to be improved. But even that avenue has issues. The Mavs certainly need to make trades, but how many trades and for what? There's no consensus even here among some of the most hardcore Mavs fans. Some want a defensive PF. Others think we need a big. Others think we should focus on getting a good guard. Others think that the position doesn't even matter and it's all about potential fit.

See where I'm getting at? I'm not trying to be too reactionary but the problems we've been seeing so far aren't easy fixes. And the Mavs have a lot of them. Which is why other good teams having the same or worse record than the Mavs right now doesn't matter. 

I think the absence of KP is also having a larger effect than I originally gave it credit originally. We need him bad. Which is why Carlisle is suddenly saying within the next 2 weeks a KP return is likely. Mavs are ramping him back up because even they're starting to feel the heat
SH, I have the impression that you are genuinely shocked at the condition of the Mavs, and that you think that blowing up the team four games into the season should be on the table. 


I agree that the performance so far has been disappointing, and that the team may have been somewhat overhyped before the season. It also seems like this could easily just be that they are in pre-season mode when the season is already started. KP will be back, and Luka will hopefully round into shape, which will change the team's look considerably. I'm not saying they're going to win the title or anything, but they seem like they should be good candidates for getting into the second round. 

I'm curious. What were you expecting? I am not taking a stand that one of us is right and the other is wrong, just wondering how you were seeing the picture before the games started.
Teams that have young, skilled, athletic forwards are torching us. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Miles Bridges. We have no answer for them...DFS is simply out of their league and he's all we've really got. THJ and JRich are more perimeter players/guards
(12-31-2020, 09:34 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not saying they're going to win the title or anything, but they seem like they should be good candidates for getting into the second round.

I don’t think the team as currently constructed will make the second round.  I am not a proponent of blowing things up at all but I do feel like we need another piece and that piece needs to be a playmaker.

Right now I believe we have a team composed of 1 playmaker and 4 spot up shooters (and Kristaps isn’t going to solve that).  I would argue that the best handles on our team are in order: Luka, Brunson, Burke, and Johnson and 3 of those players aren’t even starters.  I have better handles than Finley-Smith and I haven’t played in 25 years.  I made the point about mid range shots because I think it is POSSIBLY a reflection of their inability to create.

I don’t think you can survive if your opponent only has to guard two areas of the court...the 3 point line and the rim.  And at the rim, I only need to game plan for Luka as there is nobody else who would concern me.  Charlotte had it right.  Sag the defense but still be able to contest the 3.  If they go by you (which they rarely do) they will either pass or go to the hole as they will not pull up for the midrange.  Contest Luka on drives and try to cut off passing angles.  If they shoot light out, we likely lose.

I don’t think this anything drastic and I believe we have time.  However, I do believe having another playmaker LIKE Oladipo would solve a lot of problems.
(12-31-2020, 09:34 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]SH, I have the impression that you are genuinely shocked at the condition of the Mavs, and that you think that blowing up the team four games into the season should be on the table. 


I am for sure shocked at how the Mavs have performed in the first 4 games. It's not so much as they lost the games that has me shocked, but more of how  they lost them that is leaving me nervous. Honestly, if the Mavs lost all their games by 5 or less points, and just were cohesive, I wouldn't be worried at all. Even if they were 0-4. But besides PHX, who if they actually made their shots it'd have been a blowout, the Mavs have been curb stomped in their losses. Besides Luka, everyone has been severely under performing in at least 2 or more aspects of their game. Everyone. And even then Luka has been underperforming overall compared to the standards he set last season as well. Given the career history of all of our personnel and how I basically want everyone to do a 180 on their performance, I'm not too sanguine about that happening. Trey Burke had a huge bubble/playoffs for us, but taking that out he's always been a bad to middling bench performer. THJ by far had an outlier year all things considered last season and so far this season he hasn't staved off my fear of his immediate regression to the mean. Looking at Powell's performances in the last 4 games, it's hard to be optimistic that he'll be anything more than a 3rd stringer for the rest of his career and yet he 6th most minutes played (2 mins behind Maxi for top 5) on this team so far. Brunson's ability to run an offense has seemingly vanished. He's made some great plays on both ends, but has also made equally terrible plays on both ends as well in all of his games. He can either turn the ball over 4 straight times or hit 4 impossible layups. And we're asking him to lead the 2nd unit? DFS has missed what seems like 50% of his shots that have been wide open, and makes me feel like his career year of 3pt shooting was a flash in the pan. I can go on but for the sake of brevity, we all see the players underperforming. 

Despite this. No. I do not want to blow it up just yet. Like I said in my last post you can't build a great team if you blow it up every time an inconvenience arises. There is a chance that all the Mavs role players adjust and actually start hitting their shots, despite my doubts to that happening anytime soon. We have yet to see how this team looks with our 7'3 unicorn who might tie this all together. So no, I don't want to make a trade just yet without seeing everyone play together. And everyone's favorite phrase to start this season is still true, it's a small sample size. 


(12-31-2020, 09:34 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I'm curious. What were you expecting? I am not taking a stand that one of us is right and the other is wrong, just wondering how you were seeing the picture before the games started.


Since we've gotten Luka and seen him flash a kind of savant transcendence in basketball that only comes around once in a while, I've been extremely high on the Mavs.  I'm a homer of course, so that plays into my biases, but I felt the Mavs have struck gold with Luka. This was only bolstered after we got KP. After that, I expected the Mavs to be a 50 win team from here on out. I guess Dirk has spoiled me, given that the Mavs has always been a 50 win team for a decade straight. I wanted them to come in and handle business. Like I said I would be a-okay if the Mavs would be 0-4 and lost close contested games. But they look off. The offense is stagnated. The players are making poor choices. The defense is lackadaisical and it seems like every game the entire team as a whole decides to give half effort in all areas of basketball and hopes to skate by. 

Maybe this is a big overreaction and the Mavs will look totally different against the Heat. But I've told myself that before each game and haven't shaken this feeling. How many times can we say that before the Mavs playoff hopes are in peril?
(12-31-2020, 10:18 PM)RDB Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t think the team as currently constructed will make the second round.  I am not a proponent of blowing things up at all but I do feel like we need another piece and that piece needs to be a playmaker.

Right now I believe we have a team composed of 1 playmaker and 4 spot up shooters (and Kristaps isn’t going to solve that).  I would argue that the best handles on our team are in order: Luka, Brunson, Burke, and Johnson and 3 of those players aren’t even starters.  I have better handles than Finley-Smith and I haven’t played in 25 years.  I made the point about mid range shots because I think it is POSSIBLY a reflection of their inability to create.

I don’t think you can survive if your opponent only has to guard two areas of the court...the 3 point line and the rim.  And at the rim, I only need to game plan for Luka as there is nobody else who would concern me.  Charlotte had it right.  Sag the defense but still be able to contest the 3.  If they go by you (which they rarely do) they will either pass or go to the hole as they will not pull up for the midrange.  Contest Luka on drives and try to cut off passing angles.  If they shoot light out, we likely lose.

I don’t think this anything drastic and I believe we have time.  However, I do believe having another playmaker LIKE Oladipo would solve a lot of problems.

Yes, it seems that the lack of secondary playmaking is putting too much strain on Luka. I wonder who the team thought would take on that responsibility when they put the team together. Richardson and Burke? Johson? It has been pretty cringeworthy at times watching guys who are essentially spot-up shooters trying to create offense. Although if they're able to pick up that skill, so much the better, I guess. 

I agree with KL that the emphasis on threes and shots at the rim is almost certainly intentional, and analytics-driven. I think you may have a point that it is possible to take that to extremes. You can see the sense of it when instructing players to take deep shots from just outside the three-point arc, rather than just inside, for example. But you need a capability to take those midrange shots when that's all you can get, and also to add an element of unpredictability to the offense. I don't know that the shooters they have can't make those shots, but I agree that they mostly just don't take them.

Like it or not, this team was built on the basis of penetration to the rim and spot-up shooters. Making threes and getting to the bucket is what they are designed to do. That means they are dependent on high-variance shooting from game to game, and they are inevitably going to have some cold nights. It really irritated me when the Lakers were just standing around the basket smirking at our shooters, rather than coming out to defend them. I think the answer is largely going to have to be making them pay, although some mid-range capacity would be a plus. 

Maybe this version of the Mavs won't make it to the second round. But I'm not ready to say that they can't. This is a good group -- they haven't gelled yet, but I've still got some faith!
Here's what I wonder ... what I wish Callie or Tim or Eddie or someone would ask ... 

Are the problems on defense more:
1. Schematic like missing assignments, reads, rotations, where guys are still learning each other & the system; or 
2. are they more for lack of effort, mindset and conditioning, where guys know what to do but for one reason or another they don't get it done; or
3. are they more for lack of physicality, toughness, size where guys are in the right place and working hard but just getting their ass kicked.

... or all three?
(12-31-2020, 10:45 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, it seems that the lack of secondary playmaking is putting too much strain on Luka. I wonder who the team thought would take on that responsibility when they put the team together. Richardson and Burke? Johson? It has been pretty cringeworthy at times watching guys who are essentially spot-up shooters trying to create offense. Although if they're able to pick up that skill, so much the better, I guess. 

I agree with KL that the emphasis on threes and shots at the rim is almost certainly intentional, and analytics-driven. I think you may have a point that it is possible to take that to extremes. You can see the sense of it when instructing players to take deep shots from just outside the three-point arc, rather than just inside, for example. But you need a capability to take those midrange shots when that's all you can get, and also to add an element of unpredictability to the offense. I don't know that the shooters they have can't make those shots, but I agree that they mostly just don't take them.

Like it or not, this team was built on the basis of penetration to the rim and spot-up shooters. Making threes and getting to the bucket is what they are designed to do. That means they are dependent on high-variance shooting from game to game, and they are inevitably going to have some cold nights. It really irritated me when the Lakers were just standing around the basket smirking at our shooters, rather than coming out to defend them. I think the answer is largely going to have to be making them pay, although some mid-range capacity would be a plus. 

Maybe this version of the Mavs won't make it to the second round. But I'm not ready to say that they can't. This is a good group -- they haven't gelled yet, but I've still got some faith!
I do agree with your points.  However, if our goal is to either to get to the bucket or shoot 3’s, who besides Luka can consistently get to the bucket.
(12-31-2020, 10:37 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Since we've gotten Luka and seen him flash a kind of savant transcendence in basketball that only comes around once in a while, I've been extremely high on the Mavs.  I'm a homer of course, so that plays into my biases, but I felt the Mavs have struck gold with Luka. This was only bolstered after we got KP. After that, I expected the Mavs to be a 50 win team from here on out. I guess Dirk has spoiled me, given that the Mavs has always been a 50 win team for a decade straight. I wanted them to come in and handle business. Like I said I would be a-okay if the Mavs would be 0-4 and lost close contested games. But they look off. The offense is stagnated. The players are making poor choices. The defense is lackadaisical and it seems like every game the entire team as a whole decides to give half effort in all areas of basketball and hopes to skate by. 

Maybe this is a big overreaction and the Mavs will look totally different against the Heat. But I've told myself that before each game and haven't shaken this feeling. How many times can we say that before the Mavs playoff hopes are in peril?
More than four. I mean, the daggone Cowboys are still in contention for the playoffs. 


I think most of us have had a tendency to expect the Mavs to start this season where they left off last season, and make progress from there. I have to admit that, in practice, this almost never happens, even in normal seasons. Teams usually take a temporary step back when they begin a new season, due to personnel changes, game strategy changes, health issues of the players, etc., and they take a while to get into their best form. Ideally, they peak entering the playoffs, not early in the season. That appears to be going on in spades around the league now, and the Mavs haven't escaped it. 

They haven't looked very good in some of these games. Downright bad, on occasion. I am not arguing otherwise. But I haven't seen anything after four games that makes me think this is some kind of unfixable lottery team. They mainly look out of sync, like they aren't on a string at this point, and aren't necessarily even in game shape. 

I mean, maybe you're right. Maybe we've already seen the best of the Mavs, and the future is hopeless. I admit that's possible. But if I were having to make a case for my prediction, I think I would have an easier time making a case that they probably will make the playoffs than that they won't. 

I guess I could just be Pollyannish. It's not always easy to separate emotions from facts when we love our team, and have such high hopes with Luka. It's possible to knee-jerk in the optimistic direction, as well as the pessimistic.
(12-31-2020, 10:56 PM)RDB Wrote: [ -> ]I do agree with your points.  However, if our goal is to either to get to the bucket or shoot 3’s, who besides Luka can consistently get to the bucket.

They can all get to the basket. Even against Charlotte, they had 42 points in the paint, and most of those weren't from Luka. They scored on roughly half of their attempts there. Granted, the spacing is pretty terrible right now when the guys aren't making their threes, but that should get better, and paint scoring should get easier. Some of them aren't going to the bucket as much as we expected, but that doesn't mean they can't do it.

Like you, I am disappointed with the early performance, and I realize that grand expectations for the team need to be tempered for the sake of realism. But it's a leap to decide that, because they didn't play well in three early games, they will never play well again. What am I missing, RDB?
(12-31-2020, 08:06 PM)Thukydides Wrote: [ -> ]So if you look at the losses one thing has been brutally obvious: We have no way of dealing with an opponent, if we don´t hit our shots at the rim (mostly Luka) and from three. We really lack the ability to grind our way into a game by offensive rebounding and defensive stops. If we want to reach the playoffs or go beyond this has to change. 

In my eyes the first part can´t be changed. But the defense can be improved. I don´t think our wing defense is  atrocious. I think you can see improvements. Of course Luka and THJ aren´t especially good, but still this shouldn´t be the issue. Frontcourt defense though has been absolutely ridiculous. Get Dwight Powell off the floor, never play Maxi as the only big (I´d view him as a tall wing not as a big man). That means we only have WCS as a bigman. He´s better than Powell not because he has quick feet, but he has length. 

Bottom line we NEED to add another defensive minded frontcourt player. I´d give up Brunson in a split second. But who can it be?

I go with Andre Drummond and move to a more traditional lineup. KP and Drummond can coexist and is a more athletic version of Dirk and Chandler. You can also change your lineup to where one of them is always on the court. You then need to add another ball handler and wing scorer and then the problem is fixed 

I am not a big fan of the James Johnson addition. I thought he would be better but I am not impressed with his offensive game.
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