MavsBoard

(11-30-2020, 10:48 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-30-2020, 10:40 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]It´s about the injury.

If the injury has made him much less the player than he used to be then a conversation predicated on "if Powell is healthy" is moot. I doubt we'll stop talking about the "what ifs" though, cause, that's what we do.

For me it is more about the approach. Personally I would plan without him. Build the roster and the rotation assuming that Powell won´t play. Or at least won´t be as good as he used to be. Any production he can give the Mavs will be a bonus.

NOTE: The following post is a part of the "what if Powell returns to form" conversation.

-The number of playable bigs the Mavs want/have on the roster
-The measures the Mavs took to secure James Johnson
-DP's statistical impact on lineups
-The Mavs' use of Powell pre-injury
-The likliehood (possibly fact) that KP's improvement most likely coincided with shrugging off rust and getting comfortable rather than being stiffled by Powell
-Powell's fit with important(!) Mavs pieces
-DFS status as good, not star, player (it hurts too much to type "average")

@"DanSchwartzman", you're bringing the goods here, and I'm having a hard time arguing. Well done. 

The place where you may have slightly overstated your case is that you assumed that when we all talk about "one big" that we do so with both starters and bench in mind and then you made an argument based on that strawman. Most of us "one big"ers have had two bigs when KP sits (DP and Maxi). Even still, I was trying to fit all our rotation level bigs into 72 minutes, and still not honoring the way the Mavs have built this thing. So your overstatement of "our" position didn't really hurt your case.

In short, I think I'm buying what your selling. 

I'll throw a thousand words at someone before I relenquish a stance sometimes, but your case is making this ledge look really small and precarious. 

Alrighty then, Mavs, show us some 2-big magic, and let's see if Powell, Maxi and James can stay switchable enough to make this thing work.

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(11-30-2020, 11:03 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]For me it is more about the approach. Personally I would plan without him. Build the roster and the rotation assuming that Powell won´t play. Or at least won´t be as good as he used to be. Any production he can give the Mavs will be a bonus.

I'm sure the Mavs will be planning and changing if need be as the watch Powell in workouts, practices, scrimmages, preseason games and games. They get to opporate differently than we do since we have to wait until preseason games start. We'll see what they do.

As to the topic at hand (from several threads) regarding "how best to use KP"...

I agree with @"DanSchwartzman" and @"Kammrath" when they point out that during the early season last year, KP was being worked back into the flow, and that there were other factors that could potentially have accounted for his slow start.

I can also buy the idea that Powell was a positive on the floor on the defensive end, and not only as the team's best pick and roll screener. I have trouble with the idea that this points to anything in the way of KP, specifically, being more effective on the defensive end, really, but I have no trouble whatsoever believing that the TEAM is better defensively with Powell on the floor. He's exactly the kind of chameleon "big" that they need - smart, mobile, switchable, better than average defender in space, and with a high motor. He offers a poor man's version of what Giannis would give you on that end, to a certain extent. I think he's the TYPE of player who's needed here to play the 4 spot on defense, and while I don't think that player HAS to be a pick and roll master, it's one possible way this hypothetical player can be integrated on the offensive end. 

Where I diverge from their thinking slightly is the exact point when they confidently dismiss any notion of "what in the hell would Powell do on the offensive end should KP be more involved in the action as the 2nd option?" I don't think this is a BINARY concern, meaning that while I agree with them that Powell's injury isn't the sole reason for KP's late season charge, I DO think that using KP more directly (with Powell on the floor) might offer a significant spacing challenge. I'm not overly confident that this CAN or CAN'T be solved, but I do wonder if playing that way might remove quite a bit of what Powell brings to the table from the equation. I have a much easier time seeing a fit with Kleber in that situation, personally, but I'm not confident that I have a complete understanding of the situation.

Looking at lineup numbers and the potential bigman combinations Powell/Kleber has cleary been the best PF/C combination last season. When DAJ started at center two years ago both were part of a top 3 bench unit. The way RC thinks I wouldn´t be suprised if he wants to take advantage of it.
Maybe both Powell and Kleber will come from the bench but one of them will end up closing the game (depending on the matchup, more offense/Powell, more defense/Kleber).
The most likely scenario is still DFS as the starting PF but looking at RCs rotation last season I wouldn´t be suprised if Johnson is the starter. Last season Lee started quit a few games but he rarely played starter minutes. That could be Johnsons role this year. Switching from DNP to the starting five depending on the matchup and KPs/Powells health.

(11-30-2020, 10:50 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting tidbits all around. 

Dan makes a good point that i think gets to the heart of it: “ it was the coaches decision to run the action through powell and have KP stand in the corner” 

What are the requirements for a big to play next to KP? This is the key

I want KP on the perimeter similar to Dirk offensively. His game there is a matchup nightmare for all teams. Defensively KP is the rim protector. Essentially a 4 on offense and 5 on defense. This setup allows: 1) KP to do what he does best 2) minimizes wear and tear on KP(hopefully)

Therefore our big next to KP needs to be able to do everything else. Pick and roll is a must (It’s easy buckets with Luka). Passable 3 pt shooting and scrappy offensive rebounder(KP is on the perimeter so someone else needs to crash offensive boards). Also needs to be able to set screens for Luka.  Defensively this player needs to be able to switch and guard players on the perimeter. Essentially a 5 on offense and 4 on defense. 

Powell checks all the boxes if he comes back healthy. I see it less of a starter position and more of a conga line of scrappy players who can throw down ally’s from Luka. The most physically demanding position on the team. Ideally, DFS and Maxi are versatile bench players. DP/Johnson/New Player is the starter. The Johnson contract would be outgoing in any trade situation

This ignores everything that happened when Powell went down. Also the Dirk era basketball is long gone. KP is not Dirk, he's more like a Dirk/Chandler hybrid and the NBA has changed. Dirk used to set up in the post a TON. Now Rick doesn't like post-ups and KP isn't particularly good at them anyway. The problem is that KP doesn't have as much to do when Powell or any other non-shooting big is out there bc the big is setting screens, not KP. If Powell is anywhere but the top of the key, the defense will ignore him. When you pair KP with a big that can shoot then you have options. That is to say a Maxi or Johnson can set picks or they can stand at the 3 point line.

Powell can move his feet and plays okay team defense but he doesn't block shots or make steals. He doesn't even really bother shots. The Powell as starter era died when he blew out his achilles and KP found his unicorn magic as the true 5 on this team.

(11-30-2020, 12:13 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-30-2020, 10:50 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting tidbits all around.

Dan makes a good point that i think gets to the heart of it: “ it was the coaches decision to run the action through powell and have KP stand in the corner”

What are the requirements for a big to play next to KP? This is the key

I want KP on the perimeter similar to Dirk offensively. His game there is a matchup nightmare for all teams. Defensively KP is the rim protector. Essentially a 4 on offense and 5 on defense. This setup allows: 1) KP to do what he does best 2) minimizes wear and tear on KP(hopefully)

Therefore our big next to KP needs to be able to do everything else. Pick and roll is a must (It’s easy buckets with Luka). Passable 3 pt shooting and scrappy offensive rebounder(KP is on the perimeter so someone else needs to crash offensive boards). Also needs to be able to set screens for Luka. Defensively this player needs to be able to switch and guard players on the perimeter. Essentially a 5 on offense and 4 on defense.

Powell checks all the boxes if he comes back healthy. I see it less of a starter position and more of a conga line of scrappy players who can throw down ally’s from Luka. The most physically demanding position on the team. Ideally, DFS and Maxi are versatile bench players. DP/Johnson/New Player is the starter. The Johnson contract would be outgoing in any trade situation

This ignores everything that happened when Powell went down. Also the Dirk era basketball is long gone. KP is not Dirk, he's more like a Dirk/Chandler hybrid and the NBA has changed. Dirk used to set up in the post a TON. Now Rick doesn't like post-ups and KP isn't particularly good at them anyway. The problem is that KP doesn't have as much to do when Powell or any other non-shooting big is out there bc the big is setting screens, not KP. If Powell is anywhere but the top of the key, the defense will ignore him. When you pair KP with a big that can shoot then you have options. That is to say a Maxi or Johnson can set picks or they can stand at the 3 point line.

Powell can move his feet and plays okay team defense but he doesn't block shots or make steals. He doesn't even really bother shots. The Powell as starter era died when he blew out his achilles and KP found his unicorn magic as the true 5 on this team.

This might be one of the most brilliant posts you've ever written. Well done.

Interesting discussion overall, and Dan and Kamm made me doubt what I've seen in games over the past year, but the bottom line, as pointed out by '98, is that this is a moot theoretical conversation, like how many Dirks can dance on a basketball inflator's nozzle.

(11-30-2020, 12:13 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The problem is that KP doesn't have as much to do when Powell or any other non-shooting big is out there

I don't think this is a given. I think it remains to be seen. The fact that KP was slowly working back into form while KP was still healthy means that we haven't really seen a comfortable KP and healthy DP together yet. I'm pretty convinced that if Powell is healthy then we'll get to see whether it works or not.

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(11-30-2020, 12:29 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]This might be one of the most brilliant posts you've ever written. Well done.

Interesting discussion overall, and Dan and Kamm made me doubt what I've seen in games over the past year, but the bottom line, as pointed out by '98, is that this is a moot theoretical conversation, like how many Dirks can dance on a basketball inflator's nozzle.

I called it moot IF Powell isn't the player he used to be. But we don't know that yet. So it's not moot yet. And talking hypothetical is what we do. If we didn't do that then all we'd have to do is just read mavsluvr game summaries over and over again.

(11-29-2020, 11:28 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-29-2020, 11:24 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]DFS needs to play alongside two bigs to be most effective. The Mavs are NOT at their best with him at PF/4.

Maybe this is why the Mavs paid a 2nd round pick for Johnson and wanted Gallinari so bad. They know that DFS is NOT a PF/4 and cannot play heavy minutes there. And KP is out to start....and DP is a question mark.

Yeah, I can buy the above. Kind of puts THJ's role in more jeopardy than I thought, if the Mavs see what you see. I agree that DFS is more 3 than a 4, for sure. 

I wonder if Kleber or Johnson might get DFS's spot if/when Powell goes how @"dirkfansince1998" thinks he will. That would keep THJ in the starting lineup but still feature TWO plus defenders.

The other thing is looking at salary hierarchy which doesn't matter a ton but is a consideration would have KP, J Rich, Johnson & THJ as your highest paid supporting cast around Luka with Powell coming in just under J Rich in salary. DFS is paid as a guy that you can use as a starter or off the bench.

My hope is that Rick at some point goes with Luka, THJ, J Rich, Johnson, KP and then keeps Maxi and Powell together off the bench where they have had success. They would be reunited with DFS who also does well with those guys off the bench. That wouldn't upset the salary dynamics either. If you 5-10 spots are Brunson, Burke, DFS, Maxi, Powell with Boban and WCS being part of your center committee I think that's pretty good. That doesn't include potential contributions from rookies.

This all hinges on the idea that Johnson is a guy they really do value and want to use as a part of the regular rotation. That is the million dollar question. He could be a guy used heavily or a guy that sits on the bench and never plays. I am going to be optimistic and say he does play bc he has a lot of what the Mavs need.

(11-29-2020, 01:45 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Carlisle doesn’t run lines.  He runs starters for each quarter and a KP w/o Luka grouping and a Luka w/o KP grouping.  The key to understanding “the bench” is understanding who will play alongside KP and Brunson in the w/o Luka line and who will play with Luka, Powell and Burke in the w/o KP line.  Popcornmachine.net is a really good site to monitor this from game to game.  My guess is Luka gets Burke/DFS/Maxi and Powell while KP gets Johnson/THJ/JRich and Brunson.  Closing lineups tend to be matchup driven depending on what we need on the floor defensively.

I think this is a fun conversation piece, and an important point. We usually look at the bench as a lineup, but Sir Carlisle usually plays a mix of starters and bench players when starters start coming off the floor. I like this exercise of thinking about who would play with Luka and who would play with KP. 

The assumption above that Burke sticks with Luka threw me for a bit of a loop. Why'd you pair those two, @"DanSchwartzman"?

Here's my guess based on who I like with each one (I have no feel, really, for what I think the Mavs think on this, except I'm going to run with the use of 4 bigs like Kam and Dan have been suggesting):

W/Luka

Luka / JRich / THJ / Powell / Maxi

W/KP

Brunson / Burke / DFS / James / KP

My thoughts were mostly about who fits best with Luka. I think JRich was brought here to play with Luka, I think THJ thrives most with Luka and that the Luka/DP pnr is lethal. I like Maxi with Powell and am guessing that James fits more with KP than Powell. 

The KP, Brunson lineup just follows from the w/ Luka lineup, of course. But I think it's an intersting lineup on it's own. Seems really balanced with scoring, ball handling, shooting and defense.

(11-30-2020, 12:59 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]The KP, Brunson lineup

Here are some more lineup groups I think are important:

KP+THJ+Brunson (assuming Luka on the bench)
Mins: 311
Offense: 113.0
Defense: 95.5
Net: +17.5

I would get KP as many minutes as possible with these two while Luka rests. 


DP+Maxi
Mins: 320
Offense: 114.2
Defense: 102.1
Net: +12.1

This one has been mentioned already, but these guys have dynamite chemistry together (IF DP is healthy).


Luka+DP
Mins: 743
Offense: 120.9
Defense: 110.4
Net: +10.5

This is Luka's best pairing. I know, I know DP may not be the same, but Luka has been better with no one else.


Luka+THJ
Mins: 1207
Offense: 117.1
Defense: 108.5
Net: +8.6

This is Luka's second best pairing. This would make you think you DO want THJ starting next to Luka almost no matter what....except they dropped to -1.1 together post All Star break (but Luka struggled overall after the break). 



Just a couple more of Luka's fits (looking at Luka's best fits POST All Star break this past year with guys still here):

Luka+DFS 
Mins: 356
Offense: 114.4
Defense: 108.8
Net: +5.6

Luka+KP
Mins: 364
Offense: 116.3
Defense: 113.0
Net: +3.3

I'm kind of upset that nobody is paying attention to my "Luka by himself" plan. Show me the weak link there, am I right???

(11-30-2020, 01:39 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm kind of upset that nobody is paying attention my "Luka by himself" plan. Show me the weak link there, am I right???

I   it!

Except it's not really fair for the league so they probably wouldn't allow it. Also, all those other players on the roster need somthing to do, and there aren't enough chairs on the bench for your plan.

(11-30-2020, 12:59 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]...Sir Carlisle

(11-30-2020, 12:13 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-30-2020, 10:50 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting tidbits all around. 

Dan makes a good point that i think gets to the heart of it: “ it was the coaches decision to run the action through powell and have KP stand in the corner” 

What are the requirements for a big to play next to KP? This is the key

I want KP on the perimeter similar to Dirk offensively. His game there is a matchup nightmare for all teams. Defensively KP is the rim protector. Essentially a 4 on offense and 5 on defense. This setup allows: 1) KP to do what he does best 2) minimizes wear and tear on KP(hopefully)

Therefore our big next to KP needs to be able to do everything else. Pick and roll is a must (It’s easy buckets with Luka). Passable 3 pt shooting and scrappy offensive rebounder(KP is on the perimeter so someone else needs to crash offensive boards). Also needs to be able to set screens for Luka.  Defensively this player needs to be able to switch and guard players on the perimeter. Essentially a 5 on offense and 4 on defense. 

Powell checks all the boxes if he comes back healthy. I see it less of a starter position and more of a conga line of scrappy players who can throw down ally’s from Luka. The most physically demanding position on the team. Ideally, DFS and Maxi are versatile bench players. DP/Johnson/New Player is the starter. The Johnson contract would be outgoing in any trade situation

This ignores everything that happened when Powell went down. Also the Dirk era basketball is long gone. KP is not Dirk, he's more like a Dirk/Chandler hybrid and the NBA has changed. Dirk used to set up in the post a TON. Now Rick doesn't like post-ups and KP isn't particularly good at them anyway. The problem is that KP doesn't have as much to do when Powell or any other non-shooting big is out there bc the big is setting screens, not KP. If Powell is anywhere but the top of the key, the defense will ignore him. When you pair KP with a big that can shoot then you have options. That is to say a Maxi or Johnson can set picks or they can stand at the 3 point line.

Powell can move his feet and plays okay team defense but he doesn't block shots or make steals. He doesn't even really bother shots. The Powell as starter era died when he blew out his achilles and KP found his unicorn magic as the true 5 on this team.

Everything after Powell went down was more necessity than indicative of what the future holds IMO

What KP is is just what we both describe: hybrid Dirk/Chandler. The Dirk Era IS the new era of basketball. We have been playing new style ever since Nellie ball. It just seems different since everyone else stole our formula. I rarely remember Dirk having anything resembling a traditional post up game. It was more a midrange game disguised as post up. Everything was based on using his large frame to gain an advantage using angles. KP can do the same even though he’s nowhere near the all time great level of shooter.

I just don’t get how it’s a “problem KP doesn’t have much to do if another big is out there setting screens”. That’s not a problem to me, it’s the solution. KP setting a million screens = short career

(11-30-2020, 12:33 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-30-2020, 12:13 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The problem is that KP doesn't have as much to do when Powell or any other non-shooting big is out there

I don't think this is a given. I think it remains to be seen. The fact that KP was slowly working back into form while KP was still healthy means that we haven't really seen a comfortable KP and healthy DP together yet. I'm pretty convinced that if Powell is healthy then we'll get to see whether it works or not.

So in the Mavs offense they do move around and set multiple screens. That can theoretically get KP open but again when you have a non-shooting big out there it messes up the spacing bc they will cheat towards the shooters. KP can set up on the elbow but Rick doesn't like to go to that a lot.

The best scenario is where KP has all of his options open to really mix things up. He can do any number of things offensively when he is the 5. The spacing is also ridiculous with 5 outside shooters which helps both KP and Luka operate as playmakers, not to mention secondary ball handlers like THJ or J Rich.

I am not just saying this to make a case for this type of play, I am telling you all that this decision has already been made. This is how Rick runs his offense now. Since Powell went down you had a lot of shuffling around on offense through the TDL and playoffs and now offseason. Nothing I have seen in Rick's lineups or the MBT's moves has given me any indication that they are going back to Powell + KP in that starting lineup.

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(11-30-2020, 02:20 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]What KP is is just what we both describe: hybrid Dirk/Chandler. The Dirk Era IS the new era of basketball. We have been playing new style ever since Nellie ball. It just seems different since everyone else stole our formula. I rarely remember Dirk having a “post up game”. It was more a midrange game disguised as post up. Everything was based on using his large frame to gain an advantage using angles. KP can do the same even though he’s nowhere near the all time great level of shooter.

I just don’t get how it’s a “problem KP doesn’t have much to do if another big is out there setting screens”. That’s not a problem to me, it’s the solution. KP setting a million screens = short career

I disagree, the Dirk era did not have this kind of spacing at all. The NBA has changed dramatically in favor of at least 4 outside shooters being on the court at the same time (if possible). Dirk would probably play with a hybrid 4/5 in today's offense altho he was so good offensively you could really put any big next to him and he would get to work.

About Dirk rarely having a post-up game, he absolutely did. He operated at the elbow not deep in the paint but it was definitely a back to the basket post-up game that he feasted on his entire career. KP likes doing similar things, he just isn't that good at it. A lot of his post-ups lead to a wild shot, altho I expect him to improve over time. That being said Rick has said statically it's not a good shot anymore.

(11-30-2020, 02:23 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I am not just saying this to make a case for this type of play, I am telling you all that this decision has already been made. This is how Rick runs his offense now. Since Powell went down you had a lot of shuffling around on offense through the TDL and playoffs and now offseason. Nothing I have seen in Rick's lineups or the MBT's moves has given me any indication that they are going back to Powell + KP in that starting lineup.

Good luck with that. 

We'll see.

(11-30-2020, 02:37 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]We'll see.

Exactly. Anything else is pure hubris. It is fun to guess and speculate, but acting like we "KNOW" for certain is just wrong. 

Thankfully we don't have to wait much longer....

(11-30-2020, 02:42 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Thankfully we don't have to wait much longer....

We have to wait til KP's on the court for ALL the answers!!

But we should get some answers about DP soon.

Are we seriously going to let the number of bench chairs keep us from considering plan "Luka by himself"???

I'm disappointed in us.