MavsBoard

---

(11-29-2020, 11:39 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t see how we have enough info to make the statement in bold.

You don't think ~4000 minutes of DFS on the court is enough?

I am looking at the last two seasons combined. The Mavs in BOTH years were about +3 net better with DFS at SF/3 than PF/4. In addition, DFS's PER is worse when he is the PF/4 and so is his defense (based on opponent's PER). It is across the board consistent for thousands of minutes. Not sure how we could call that not enough info.

Let’s not forget that we were the best offense in the league last year. It’s other teams that need to adjust their lineup to us or they will get ran out the gym. Rick will set the defensive tone day 1 and minutes should be based more around who is effective both sides of the court. I’m all for a small ball trial run just to see what works defensively. We will be great offensively no matter who plays when

---

(11-29-2020, 11:52 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-29-2020, 11:39 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t see how we have enough info to make the statement in bold.

You don't think ~4000 minutes of DFS on the court is enough?

I am looking at the last two seasons combined. The Mavs in BOTH years were about +3 net better with DFS at SF/3 than PF/4. In addition, DFS's PER is worse when he is the PF/4 and so is his defense (based on opponent's PER). It is across the board consistent for thousands of minutes. Not sure how we could call that not enough info.

You may be right. We have different personnel this year though. I think it will have an effect. DFS was often asked to guard the other teams best player

(11-29-2020, 11:40 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]KP turned into the +/- leader of the team.

KP was indeed dominant down the stretch in +/-..... on the flip side THJ was the worst on the team (-8.1) closely followed by Maxi (-7.1) for the big minutes guys post All Star break.

AND

THJ and Maxi were also the two worst BY FAR in the playoffs.

(11-29-2020, 11:59 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-29-2020, 11:40 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]KP turned into the +/- leader of the team.

KP was indeed dominant down the stretch in +/-..... on the flip side THJ was the worst on the team (-8.1) closely followed by Maxi (-7.1) for the big minutes guys post All Star break.

AND

THJ and Maxi were also the two worst BY FAR in the playoffs.

Maxi was the only big left on the team. Of course his numbers were terrible as time went on. Maxi, THj and DFS were asked to do way too much down the stretch. Just having other options will help a ton

(11-29-2020, 11:59 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-29-2020, 11:40 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]KP turned into the +/- leader of the team.

KP was indeed dominant down the stretch in +/-..... on the flip side THJ was the worst on the team (-8.1) closely followed by Maxi (-7.1) for the big minutes guys post All Star break.

AND

THJ and Maxi were also the two worst BY FAR in the playoffs.

And that´s why we have to look at the context. Was DFS more impactful as the SF in the last few seasons because he was the best defender against high volume scoring guards? Is that going to change now? Was Maxis +/- in the playoffs bad because RC basically matched his minutes with Kawhis? What about Seths mediocre  +/- numbers?
Powell is a more limited player than any of the previously mentioned. He only played in his role as the starting center and shared most of his minutes with Luka. Maxi is rotating all over the lineup. Starting center without KP. Starting PF next to KP. Backup for both positions. Perimeter defender against Kawhi. Really difficult to isolate his impact with +/- and lineup data.

(11-29-2020, 11:59 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-29-2020, 11:40 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]KP turned into the +/- leader of the team.

KP was indeed dominant down the stretch in +/-..... on the flip side THJ was the worst on the team (-8.1) closely followed by Maxi (-7.1) for the big minutes guys post All Star break.

AND

THJ and Maxi were also the two worst BY FAR in the playoffs.

(11-30-2020, 12:09 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]And that´s why we have to look at the context.

Of course. I wasn't drawing a conclusion, just offering the facts.

I think Maxi's is a LOT easier to "explain away"....THJ's I have a very hard time doing so, especially because post All Star break and in the playoffs he was the absolute caboose. The team leader and the team caboose tend to be the easiest to interpret IMO, the middle of the pack gets really difficult to sort through.

Ok, new plan: send Luka out there BY HIMSELF! This might be the only way to avoid an 0-72 record.

(11-29-2020, 11:24 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]And my strong opinion from looking at lots of lineups:

DFS needs to play alongside two bigs to be most effective. The Mavs are NOT at their best with him at PF/4.

Maybe this is why the Mavs paid a 2nd round pick for Johnson and wanted Gallinari so bad. They know that DFS is NOT a PF/4 and cannot play heavy minutes there. And KP is out to start....and DP is a question mark.

Kamm has been spot on in this conversation (until he brought up the small sample size of the playoffs).  But, it feels like people are talking past one another a bit, so let's go back to the beginning.  Killer stipulated health for Powell in his dissertation.  It is the basis for the conversation.  So, if you want to argue that Powell will never be good anymore, then that is a different discussion. 

The real discussion here is SBJ's often stated position that KP/Powell will never be the starting duo because Powell was ruinous to KP's game and that KP will be the sole big.  Let's start with the sole big thing as many here hold that position.  If that is the case, then we have WAY to many bigs here for the 18 minutes KP doesn't play and his occasional night off.  If KP is the sole big, then why do we need Powell and Maxi and WCS (or Gasol who we tried to replace him with) and Boban and Johnson.  The answer is obvious.  Of course KP is going to play alongside one of these guys most of the time. 

Now to Powell:

You know who the best two-man pairing was with Luka?  DP...at a net 10.4 followed by THJ at 8.5 and a bunch of folks in the 4's and 5's.

You know who the best two man pairing was with KP?  DP was second at 11.9.  Brunson was first at 15.6.  Seems to me that if you can play REALLY well next to both Luka and KP, then you are a good candidate for the starting five (THJ is a lot better next to Luka than DFS and a little better than DFS next to KP.  So, to answer Killer's question, THJ will start and DFS will sit) 

You know who wasn't all that special paired with KP?  Maxi at 3.5 and DFS at 6.1.

You know who had the best D-Rating next to KP?  Again, DP was second at 105.3 to Brunson.  The often-touted defensive wiz and the key to making 5-Out work DFS was 109.1 in lineups with KP.  Of course, you would expect Powell to look good since he was tied for the best on-minus-off on the team.  Powell has been first or second on the team each of the last three seasons.  He's been a mile better than DFS in each of those 3 years.  Powell has always had a positive impact on winning.  If you want to play 5-out (which is a gimmick born of necessity, not the way of life some contend), then you need DFS to be a stud.  He's a feel good story who has developed into an average NBA player now that he can hit his corner 3's.  But you don't build your team based on him allowing you to play a certain style.

This whole concept that Powell somehow hurt KP is just ludicrous.  The lineups were fantastic when they were together and Powell allowed KP to ease himself back into his game.  The dimmer on KP was forced to be a light switch when Powell went down.  The good news is KP rose to the occasion (just like he would have eventually done WITH Powell).  It was a coaches decision to run all the action through Powell and have KP stand in the corner, not some requirement based on Powell's lack of outside shooting.  The most encouraging thing is the team was FANTASTIC with sub-par KP alongside Powell.  Imagine what it will be if we get a good version of both on the court at the same time.

(11-30-2020, 06:24 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Kamm has been spot on in this conversation (until he brought up the small sample size of the playoffs).

1) Just FYI I only brought up the playoffs as an interesting tidbit since @"dirkfansince1998" seemed to be interested in it, not as the foundation of any of my arguments. None of my opinions are based on a mere 6 game sample size.

2) GREAT post that hopefully clears up some of the miscommunication

(11-30-2020, 06:24 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]This whole concept that Powell somehow hurt KP is just ludicrous.

.

This is the heart of it. DP has been really good with and for KP and Luka. He is going to be given EVERY chance to find that again post injury.

I don't know if I agree that healthy Powell is written in pen as starter again, but I agree that he'll get a chance, and I DEFINITELY buy the concept that he's the size, athletic profile and skillset that the Mavs have in mind for that spot. 

I think that IS the point of Johnson, in some ways. Kleber and Johnson are there, even if Powell is not. All three count as the "smaller, faster, more comfortable switching or in space big" I was talking about in the Porzingis thread.

Go look up Klay Thompson's contract and then add in how many years he has been hurt including this next season...now compare that to Powell's supposedly CAP killing contract...

The Mavs paid for his impact on and off the court...the injury was just bad luck and yet the Mavs were able to improve their team and still have a decent path to a Max if a great player hits FA...or they have assets and expiring contracts if a great player demands a trade or team realises it needs to blow it up and tank...

The Powell hate is one of the worst agendas on this site...

You guys are right. #PowellGOAT

https://youtu.be/o0IDd1qQidw

(11-30-2020, 10:07 AM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]Go look up Klay Thompson's contract and then add in how many years he has been hurt including this next season...now compare that to Powell's supposedly CAP killing contract...

The Mavs paid for his impact on and off the court...the injury was just bad luck and yet the Mavs were able to improve their team and still have a decent path to a Max if a great player hits FA...or they have assets and expiring contracts if a great player demands a trade or team realises it needs to blow it up and tank...

The Powell hate is one of the worst agendas on this site...

It´s not hate to point out that he tore his achilles. MFFL unite. Might as well give JJB a new 5 year deal and bring back Dirk. Who cares about the on court performance, decline or injuries. We love our boys in blue.

It´s not about Powell. It´s about the injury. I would love to get peak Powell back but I don´t think it will happen. Others pointed it out multiple times. The only guy that ever came close to his pre injury level was Dominique Wilkins. Wes Matthews actually has a case for 2nd best post injury performance. The scenario a lot of guys think of as a given because of Powells work ethic would make him the first player in NBA history to get back to his pre injury level.

Reality is that even advanced medical treatments haven´t really changed the outcome. More than 1/3 never returned to the NBA. On average the ones that return are out of the league within 2-3 years. All of them played less minutes and had a worse PER. All of them except for Wilkins never reached their pre injury shooting efficiency.

(11-30-2020, 10:40 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]It´s about the injury.

If the injury has made him much less the player than he used to be then a conversation predicated on "if Powell is healthy" is moot. I doubt we'll stop talking about the "what ifs" though, cause, that's what we do.

(11-30-2020, 10:40 AM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]You guys are right. #PowellGOAT

https://youtu.be/o0IDd1qQidw

I love Powell, but this is my favorite bit, by far.

Interesting tidbits all around. 

Dan makes a good point that i think gets to the heart of it: “ it was the coaches decision to run the action through powell and have KP stand in the corner” 

What are the requirements for a big to play next to KP? This is the key

I want KP on the perimeter similar to Dirk offensively. His game there is a matchup nightmare for all teams. Defensively KP is the rim protector. Essentially a 4 on offense and 5 on defense. This setup allows: 1) KP to do what he does best 2) minimizes wear and tear on KP(hopefully)

Therefore our big next to KP needs to be able to do everything else. Pick and roll is a must (It’s easy buckets with Luka). Passable 3 pt shooting and scrappy offensive rebounder(KP is on the perimeter so someone else needs to crash offensive boards). Also needs to be able to set screens for Luka.  Defensively this player needs to be able to switch and guard players on the perimeter. Essentially a 5 on offense and 4 on defense. 

Powell checks all the boxes if he comes back healthy. I see it less of a starter position and more of a conga line of scrappy players who can throw down ally’s from Luka. The most physically demanding position on the team. Ideally, DFS and Maxi are versatile bench players. DP/Johnson/New Player is the starter. The Johnson contract would be outgoing in any trade situation

(11-30-2020, 10:49 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-30-2020, 10:40 AM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]You guys are right. #PowellGOAT

https://youtu.be/o0IDd1qQidw

I love Powell, but this is my favorite bit, by far.

This isn't a bit boss

(11-30-2020, 10:50 AM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]This isn't a bit boss