(12-03-2023, 03:05 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Williams played 25 minutes a game from the bench on a contender. That is easily worth the MLE which is basically what they are both getting paid.
Holding on to DJJ will be about our exceptions. My guess is he he will be somewhere between tax MLE and standard MLE
Are we likely to have the standard MLE available?
I really do hope Jones wants to stay here. He's working out well for us.
(12-03-2023, 04:11 PM)surfpuckmd Wrote: [ -> ]Are we likely to have the standard MLE available?
I really do hope Jones wants to stay here. He's working out well for us.
It’s a good question. I’m not sure. It will prolly depend on other moves we make
(12-03-2023, 04:31 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]It’s a good question. I’m not sure. It will prolly depend on other moves we make
Almost completely. And it has almost nothing to do with ownership’s willingness to spend.
(12-03-2023, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Williams is miscast for the role the Mavs want him to play. Mavs brought in a 25 year old to be the vet leader and glue guy. He never anchored a defense and isn't an onball stopper. He is versatile and can shine in a switch heavy system (Boston in the past).
I think DanS post is spot on. Mavs once again have a collection of good rotation players but ideally you don't want them to start. Big difference compared to past seasons and the reason why I am more hopeful is that the we aren't talking about Bullock or Matthews on their last leg. We are looking at guys in their early or mid 20s. For the first time in what feels like forever the Mavs have a core of players in their early/mid 20s.
That's where I agree with Killerleft. I don't view this as a win now season (Cuban, Nico, Kidd probably do). Doesn't mean that they shouldn't try to win but it's more of a bonus for me.
Agree, but there might come a moment you have to ask yourself, do we want another Lively or more Boy George. Shoutout if you catch the reference.
Lots of good points made on the last page
Who are the 2 players that we need around Luka, Kyrie and Lively? Luka needs to guard the worst 3/4 player. Kyrie guards the weakest opposing guard
1. Point of attack defender, guards opponents best ball handler, all around perimeter defender, athlete, 3pt shooter, can attack/cut at the rim
Green is in theory this type of player
2. Big versatile wing defender, help defense in the paint, rebounder, all around perimeter defender, athlete, 3pt shooter, can attack/cut at the rim
G Will is in theory this type of player
While both players have left a lot to be desired with their play this year, they both are capable. A trade for a player that pushes one of them out of the lineup for a better player seems ideal but it’s not something to rush.
It’s tricky at this point to make the right additions. The league is moving to more overall size(coupled with skill). In regards to THJ/3rd scorer role it seems better to get a much bigger version of that that plays off the bench. Lauri type. Not too big like a Vucevic that you can’t play in the playoffs. But not too small like a THJ you can’t play in the playoffs. Then surround those guys with versatile 3&D defenders.
One good point made about G Will is he’s used to (and us too) playing in a 5 out switch heavy defense and that’s why he’s not as effective. While we want to build around the PnR with Luka/Lively/Kyrie, it would be perfect if we could have the versatility to play both ways depending on matchups and effectiveness. We need more size to be this good and that’s why Hardy and THJ are on their way out long term. Exum is more of the prototypical big quick bench guard we need. It’s why O-Max development should move up in priority. This is the year to build it out the right way. THJ value is at peak right now. Hardy has lost value and is a Klutch guy and could ask out if we stop playing him. It feels like we have a move coming soon, but not THE move
(12-03-2023, 07:46 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]2. Big versatile wing defender, help defense in the paint, rebounder, all around perimeter defender, athlete, 3pt shooter, can attack/cut at the rim
G Will is in theory this type of player
I don't think he's the proper player in theory to start at 4. He's not a good rebounder or support paint defender, not overly athletic, not a great cutter/slasher. He will be matchup dependent but the lack of activity recently on loose balls and defense in general suggests most of the time he won't be ideal. DFS spoiled the Mavs I guess with all his offball hustle plays. Need someone like DFS that never needs the ball and doesn't care if he doesn't get the ball but still impacts the game heavily. Maybe OMax has it in him although it's still weird he didn't block any shots at all in college.
(12-03-2023, 04:31 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]It’s a good question. I’m not sure. It will prolly depend on other moves we make
We sit right on the projected tax line for 24/25 with 13 players under contract as is. So, with no changes, we would have the TP-MLE or about $5.25mm if memory serves. It would take trading a sizable non-expiring contract for an expiring contract on a player that we don't retain to get far enough below the tax to use the Full MLE.
(12-03-2023, 11:06 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]EDIT: I think I agree with the ORIGIN of your opinion, in that I believe it's based on the idea that longterm, the team will need one offensively featured front court player. I'm just not sure it has be the 4. You're assuming a ceiling for Lively I'm not (you might be right) and you're assuming Green is the other starter, so Williams is in the way of that for you.
I do assume Green is the fifth starter and I think he's more prototypical for what is needed there than Williams is for his position. I don't think Williams is prototypical at all. He's kind of a tweener (especially when Nico mentions rebounding and force).
I don't assume any limits on Lively's ability. I do assume some limitations on his role. As you said, he's Luka's PnR guy. He'll probably get some post opportunities with time. Maybe some pick and pop. Who knows what else. I think he'll be right up there with the best rim protecting rollers while also having some other skills (like passing). But a smallish stand in the corner four who doesn't rebound is probably not the answer. I might be dissuaded if there was some offensive ability with the ball in his hands. But, other than a bit of passing, it isn't really much better than DFS with the ball in his hands...and I like Williams and liked the signing and still do.
The problem is trying to find that guy who does what Williams does well and is better at everything else. Availability is the other important quality. I think Siakam is probably the better fit than Markkanen. The 3 isn't ideal, but Siakam is a great defender and a willing passer. He could also give you some minutes at the five when Lively sits. Two birds, one stone.
(12-03-2023, 09:07 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]We sit right on the projected tax line for 24/25 with 13 players under contract as is. So, with no changes, we would have the TP-MLE or about $5.25mm if memory serves. It would take trading a sizable non-expiring contract for an expiring contract on a player that we don't retain to get far enough below the tax to use the Full MLE.
Thats unfortunate. Don't think that is going to be enough to keep him if he keeps playing like this.
(12-03-2023, 08:38 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]https://x.com/iztok_franko/status/173129...41845?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg
Luka specifically told Lively to attack the rim from the nail last night... He kicked it out to Hardy or one of the DLeaguers (might have been Williams or DJJ) in the corner and the miss was terrible. Going to timeout Luka came up to Lively and told home to attack not pass (2nd qtr I think) and Lively responded!
(12-03-2023, 09:28 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The problem is trying to find that guy who does what Williams does well and is better at everything else. Availability is the other important quality. I think Siakam is probably the better fit than Markkanen. The 3 isn't ideal, but Siakam is a great defender and a willing passer. He could also give you some minutes at the five when Lively sits. Two birds, one stone.
Williams was a good signing, and will be valuable off the bench but he's extremely undersized. He does not provide what this team is lacking and that is rebounding and paint presence. Toughness.
A bigger 4 who can score, rebound, and guard the paint, while also covering the 5 for limited minutes is what this team is missing. Basically a healthy Maxi in his prime. Siakam is the prototype, but the asking price will be insane. I doubt any combination of Green, THJ, Hardy, Omax, Holmes, Kleber, picks get this done.
So do we find the next Maxi or the Next Siakam? This is why you and many others were looking at P.J. Washington. Who else fits this type player and is available?
(12-04-2023, 10:58 AM)Nowitzki Way Wrote: [ -> ]Williams was a good signing, and will be valuable off the bench but he's extremely undersized. He does not provide what this team is lacking and that is rebounding and paint presence. Toughness.
A bigger 4 who can score, rebound, and guard the paint, while also covering the 5 for limited minutes is what this team is missing. Basically a healthy Maxi in his prime. Siakam is the prototype, but the asking price will be insane. I doubt any combination of Green, THJ, Hardy, Omax, Holmes, Kleber, picks get this done.
So do we find the next Maxi or the Next Siakam? This is why you and many others were looking at P.J. Washington. Who else fits this type player and is available?
He is not exactly what you are looking for...questionable defense and questionable shot...but has size and can do some things. The guy has warts, though. Cheaper than Siakam. I bet Julius Randle can be got. I know he is not preferred by many around here but he checks some boxes.
I am neither here nor there on Randle. Just saying he has some skill and size which the Mavs lack.
My issue with the Mavs can be summed up by what just happened to the Texas Rangers. Jon Daniels for the past 10 years always said we are two years away. In the same sense everyone on here says "wait another offseason to make moves", or "in 25/26 there is a great list of free agents coming on the market". Rangers never did squat. New management comes in and makes moves for high level pitchers and high level short stop or second baseman and they win the whole damn thing. Really dont want to argue about how baseball cap is different...so dont bother. Point is the Rangers new management came in and made moves immediately.
Do something. We are after too niche of players around here that are never available and its always waiting for one to become available. This tells me you have to draft these players...not try and acquire them. Blow your whole wallet acquiring them and then be left waiting 2 or 3 years for your books to clean.
Go get reasonably priced bball players with fundamentals that upgrade your team. Not pass them up waiting for the perfect niche player. Find bbal players and make Luka and the coach adjust a little. Do we have to tie our hitch to the pnr? Maybe now that we found Lively its a must.
Here is a trade that would provide us with our ideal backup/platoon center. It would also clear some bad salary off our cap for next year:
Mavericks trade:
Maxi Kleber
Richaun Holmes
2027 1st round pick (top 10 protected, otherwise converts to 2, 2nd-round picks)
to the Wizards i.e.
Daniel Gafford
Danilo Gallinari
Mike Muscala
Gafford is one of the league's best rim protectors and rebounds well. He's also a good lob threat and an effective finisher at the rim. He's only 25 so he's the right age to grow with this team. He corrects our greatest problem which is hopelessness at the backup center position.
Gallinari and Muscala are expiring contracts. Their value is that we could use them later this season for salary matching in a trade to bring back a decent bigger wing. Or, we could simply let them expire this coming summer. My hope is our cap situation would then allow us to have the full MLE in the summer of 2024. We could use it on a big wing or use part of it to retain DJJ.
The Wizards might consider this as they have the league's saddest roster. They will need several years in the high lottery to acquire some talent.
(12-04-2023, 10:58 AM)Nowitzki Way Wrote: [ -> ]Williams was a good signing, and will be valuable off the bench but he's extremely undersized. He does not provide what this team is lacking and that is rebounding and paint presence. Toughness.
A bigger 4 who can score, rebound, and guard the paint, while also covering the 5 for limited minutes is what this team is missing. Basically a healthy Maxi in his prime. Siakam is the prototype, but the asking price will be insane. I doubt any combination of Green, THJ, Hardy, Omax, Holmes, Kleber, picks get this done.
So do we find the next Maxi or the Next Siakam? This is why you and many others were looking at P.J. Washington. Who else fits this type player and is available?
PJ isn’t a ton bigger than Williams, but he can do more with the ball in his hands and he is the better rebounder. PJ has said publicly that something was close to happening with Dallas. What we don’t know is whether that was pre or post the GWill ‘trade’.
I’d probably put John Collins in this same category (slightly bigger than GWill, does more with the ball and is a better rebounder). Neither of these guys is the defender that Siakam is. We can probably argue as to whether they are better defenders than Williams (I suspect the answer might be no if Williams still played for Boston). PJ seems like the odd man out in Charlotte. Trading a second for Collins and getting back a first seems like an Ainge thing to do.
You guys just brought up two names who i think fit very well. Let me adjust, they fit better than what we have.
John Collins at the 4 spot and Gafford at the 5. I actually think Gafford is the perfect compliment to Lively. They are similar players in skillset and ability. I dont think we'd miss a beat with either on the floor.
Collins has been debated around here for years, and always seemed like a potential trade option. I like him at that 4 as opposed to GWill. If his finger is better, he can shoot (40% from 3 this year). He's a much better rebounder and shot blocker than GWill too.
Julius Randle? I've always liked his game. Kind of a throw back power forward. After watching him over the years, he's just not a winning player. He seems like a supersized version of THJ. I think his rebounding and toughness would be welcomed, but i wouldnt want him chucking up 3's on a nightly basis.
(12-03-2023, 03:05 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Williams played 25 minutes a game from the bench on a contender. That is easily worth the MLE which is basically what they are both getting paid.
Is it though? Williams was making 2.6M a year when playing those minutes which if you look at recent champs kind of aligns with the correct value vs position in the rotation. He was playing 27 minutes a game that 2022 playoff run but I would argue that with what we're paying him and how our roster is built to where he needs to be playing closer to a full quarter of nba playoff basketball more. Same goes for Josh in a sense, either him or DJJ will probably be playing close to 36 a night during the playoffs depending on who wins that spot out over the regular season. Can we truly be a contender with those two in those roles is the big question mark going forward.
Here are the 6 thru 8 men in the playoff rotation for the most recent champions, their minutes and their salary:
2023 Nugs
6 - Bruce Brown - 26.5 - 6.5M
7 - Jeff Green - 17.2 - 4.5M
8 - Christian Braun - 13 - 2.9M
2022 Warriors
6 - Kevon Looney - 20.4 - 5.2M
7 - Otto Porter Jr - 19.5 - 2.4M
8 - Gary Payton II - 16.9 - 1.9M
2021 Bucks
6 - Pat Connaughton - 23.7 - 4.9M
7 - Donte DiVencenzo - 23.3 - 3M
8 - Bobby Portis - 18.3 - 3.6M
2020 Lakers
6 - Alex Caruso - 24.3 - 2.7M
7 - Kyle Kuzma - 23 - 2M
8 - Markieff Morris - 18.3 - 1.8M
Last 4 years show that a championship bench unit in total gets paid less than what one of either Grant Williams or Josh Green make.
Now I'm not saying that the idea that you need to spend money on your starters and find hidden gems for your bench is some ground breaking discovery. Nor am I trying to say that this is the only way to build a roster with your money (the 2019 Raptors break this rule pretty quick). What I'm saying is if over time we realize that Grant Williams and Josh Green are proven to not be high minute getters in the playoffs for us to be contenders, the solution may not just be moving them to the bench finding replacements simply because of the restrictions their salaries put on roster construction. It's a tricky spot to be in because the front office is going to have to decide quick on these two if they are trying to be a contender in the Kyrie window. With Williams and Green still young, you can talk yourself in to them developing into the sort of players you're paying them to be. If you lose that bet though then you don't have the talent to be a contender AND those assets lose a ton of value in the process. I think you got to see how these two do for an entire season for sure but I just wouldn't be surprised if some tough decisions around those two happen a lot more quickly than we expect if they don't live up to the front office's expectations.
(12-04-2023, 11:57 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]PJ isn’t a ton bigger than Williams, but he can do more with the ball in his hands and he is the better rebounder.
I'd throw in much better rim protector and roller as well. Rim protection was one of his main positive traits heading into that 2019 draft.
(12-04-2023, 11:57 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]PJ isn’t a ton bigger than Williams, but he can do more with the ball in his hands and he is the better rebounder. PJ has said publicly that something was close to happening with Dallas. What we don’t know is whether that was pre or post the GWill ‘trade’.
I’d probably put John Collins in this same category (slightly bigger than GWill, does more with the ball and is a better rebounder). Neither of these guys is the defender that Siakam is. We can probably argue as to whether they are better defenders than Williams (I suspect the answer might be no if Williams still played for Boston). PJ seems like the odd man out in Charlotte. Trading a second for Collins and getting back a first seems like an Ainge thing to do.
There are not a lot of great options.
PJ can do more with the ball, but he isn't any bigger and not really much of a better rebounder. I don't think he is enough of an upgrade over Williams to warrant the likely cost.
Collins would definitely be a rebounding upgrade, but he costs 26 mil AAV for the next 3 years. I might be convinced to take on that contract, but I would not pay a first for it.
Siakam checks a lot of boxes, but the 3 point shooting is not good and he will be insanely expensive.
Part of me wonders if the best solution might be to replace Green with a bigger more versatile wing. I think OG actually checks more boxes that Siakam. He is a better defender, better shooter and nearly as big. He is also more than 3 years younger. An S&T next offseason should not be too expensive, just don't know how crazy the salary would have to be.
(12-04-2023, 12:58 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think he is enough of an upgrade over Williams to warrant the likely cost.
I think the big question is what that cost would actually be. What if it was just Hardaway on the way out and no draft capital?
(12-04-2023, 12:52 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Is it though? Williams was making 2.6M a year when playing those minutes which if you look at recent champs kind of aligns with the correct value vs position in the rotation. He was playing 27 minutes a game that 2022 playoff run but I would argue that with what we're paying him and how our roster is built to where he needs to be playing closer to a full quarter of nba playoff basketball more. Same goes for Josh in a sense, either him or DJJ will probably be playing close to 36 a night during the playoffs depending on who wins that spot out over the regular season. Can we truly be a contender with those two in those roles is the big question mark going forward.
Here are the 6 thru 8 men in the playoff rotation for the most recent champions, their minutes and their salary:
2023 Nugs
6 - Bruce Brown - 26.5 - 6.5M
7 - Jeff Green - 17.2 - 4.5M
8 - Christian Braun - 13 - 2.9M
2022 Warriors
6 - Kevon Looney - 20.4 - 5.2M
7 - Otto Porter Jr - 19.5 - 2.4M
8 - Gary Payton II - 16.9 - 1.9M
2021 Bucks
6 - Pat Connaughton - 23.7 - 4.9M
7 - Donte DiVencenzo - 23.3 - 3M
8 - Bobby Portis - 18.3 - 3.6M
2020 Lakers
6 - Alex Caruso - 24.3 - 2.7M
7 - Kyle Kuzma - 23 - 2M
8 - Markieff Morris - 18.3 - 1.8M
Last 4 years show that a championship bench unit in total gets paid less than what one of either Grant Williams or Josh Green make.
Now I'm not saying that the idea that you need to spend money on your starters and find hidden gems for your bench is some ground breaking discovery. Nor am I trying to say that this is the only way to build a roster with your money (the 2019 Raptors break this rule pretty quick). What I'm saying is if over time we realize that Grant Williams and Josh Green are proven to not be high minute getters in the playoffs for us to be contenders, the solution may not just be moving them to the bench finding replacements simply because of the restrictions their salaries put on roster construction. It's a tricky spot to be in because the front office is going to have to decide quick on these two if they are trying to be a contender in the Kyrie window. With Williams and Green still young, you can talk yourself in to them developing into the sort of players you're paying them to be. If you lose that bet though then you don't have the talent to be a contender AND those assets lose a ton of value in the process. I think you got to see how these two do for an entire season for sure but I just wouldn't be surprised if some tough decisions around those two happen a lot more quickly than we expect if they don't live up to the front office's expectations.
A lot of this is more of an argument for operating through the draft to get useful cost controlled players (something I don't disagree with). Comparing rookie contracts to free agent contracts is a little bit of apples to oranges. Different situations. The true compare would be to look at the guys getting roughly MLE in free agency. I think you will find very few that will be significantly better than the combination of age and resume that Grant had.
(12-04-2023, 01:06 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I think the big question is what that cost would actually be. What if it was just Hardaway on the way out and no draft capital?
You would obviously have to make that trade from a fit standpoint if nothing else. Do you think there is any chance that would be the deal?