MavsBoard

Chance to take down the number one team....

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...5223452673

Maxi out, KP questionable.

Tyler Herro out to prove he deserves to be in the same conversation with Luka and Trae?

Heat look very tough. Everybody has to play well to get this win.

Is KP’s soft ass gonna play? Ready for the Latvian to be traded away. Please Nico, no more of this loser.

This one will be tough. Hopefully KP is healthy and we bring our A game.

How are we favorites? Is anyone out out the Heat's side? I think we are major underdogs.

(11-02-2021, 09:00 AM)HAguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]How are we favorites? Is anyone out out the Heat's side? I think we are major underdogs.

The line was set with Mavs as favs because the experts/computers don't think the Mavs are as poor as their play so far. And the experts/computers don't think MIA is as good as their 5-1 record. You see this fact in MIA being 5-1 against the spread (they have massively overperformed) and DAL is 2-4 against the spread (they have underperformed). 

The experts/computers could be wrong of course, but Vegas doesn't give up on them that quickly. 


Bettors and fans though have now poured a ton of money into MIA on this line....so now MIA is 2.5 pt favs in Vegas. The bettors have swung this line 4.5 pts toward MIA. Will be curious when the late "smart money" comes in whether it pushes the line back toward DAL.

(11-01-2021, 10:02 PM)VintagePejav2 Wrote: [ -> ]Is KP’s soft ass gonna play? Ready for the Latvian to be traded away. Please Nico, no more of this loser.

How's Bob?

(11-02-2021, 09:27 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]The line was set with Mavs as favs because the experts/computers don't think the Mavs are as poor as their play so far. And the experts/computers don't think MIA is as good as their 5-1 record. You see this fact in MIA being 5-1 against the spread (they have massively overperformed) and DAL is 2-4 against the spread (they have underperformed). 

The experts/computers could be wrong of course, but Vegas doesn't give up on them that quickly. 


Bettors and fans though have now poured a ton of money into MIA on this line....so now MIA is 2.5 pt favs in Vegas. The bettors have swung this line 4.5 pts toward MIA. Will be curious when the late "smart money" comes in whether it pushes the line back toward DAL.

Seems crazy to me.  Vegas usually knows what they are doing, but unless Bam is out and KP is in its hard to imagine this game going well.

(11-02-2021, 11:02 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Seems crazy to me.  Vegas usually knows what they are doing, but unless Bam is out and KP is in its hard to imagine this game going well.

I may be wrong of course, but I expect the unsustainable 31.2% three point shooting for DAL to end tonight and they win. We'll see. 

I don't bet, but if I did I think I would bet strongly on the Mavs tonight.

Line has inched back toward DAL, now 2.0 pt dogs.

(11-02-2021, 12:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/KevinGraySports/stat...3659512833

Lol.

Can never count on this guy.

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(11-02-2021, 10:35 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]How's Bob?

Still very rich. Doesn’t have to work for a dysfunctional NBA franchise. Life is good for him.

(11-02-2021, 11:06 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I may be wrong of course, but I expect the unsustainable 31.2% three point shooting for DAL to end tonight and they win. We'll see. 

I don't bet, but if I did I think I would bet strongly on the Mavs tonight.

Its probably well you don't bet.  We will be throwing out single big Powell tonight.  Seems more likely we will lose be over 20 than win.  I don't bet either, and games like this are part of the reason why.  What does Vegas know?  Even if Bam is out we will be in trouble.  Luka will still be playing so I don't see a let down kind of situation.  I'm not a fan of the "due" mentality.  They will surely shoot better than 31.2 from three for the season, but that does not really have any impact on this one game.

lol Burke.

(11-02-2021, 02:09 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not a fan of the "due" mentality.  They will surely shoot better than 31.2 from three for the season, but that does not really have any impact on this one game.

It does have bearing. The Mavs have been winning (4-2) while shooting 31.2% from three and the odds of them shooting better than 31.2% are very high this game. Not because they have shot poorly before this game, but because the odds of them shooting 31.2% any given game are low given the track record of their players. They aren't "due" but their players are much better than 31.2% three point shooters, especially when you consider they have had MORE open looks per game this year than last year.

(11-02-2021, 02:15 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It does have bearing. The Mavs have been winning (4-2) while shooting 31.2% from three and the odds of them shooting better than 31.2% are very high this game. Not because they have shot poorly before this game, but because the odds of them shooting 31.2% any given game are low given the track record of their players. They aren't "due" but their players are much better than 31.2% three point shooters, especially when you consider they have had MORE open looks per game this year than last year.

They are 4-2 because they have played 4 crappy teams.  They have done a good job of taking care of business.  They have looked completely out matched against the two good teams the have played.  In both cases shooting their normal 3% or even a little better would not have affected the outcome of the game.  They are about to play another good team, and if Bam is playing will be totally outmatched at numerous positions.  It will take more than them hitting their expected rate to win this game unless Miami totally shits the bed.