(11-02-2021, 10:06 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]These roster building problems go all the way back to the Luka deal when they voluntarily gave up a potential lottery pick instead of taking on salary from Atlanta.
UGH. I had buried that in my subconscious....INFURIATING decision. They gave up what SHOULD have been a top 5 pick to avoid taking on a couple years of mediocre bad money. UGH.
Can anyone explain to me why Willie Cauley Stein is gobbling so many playing minutes? Does he contribute something to the game that can not be seen by an amateur like me?
(11-02-2021, 10:13 PM)Borkhan Wrote: [ -> ]Can anyone explain to me why Willie Cauley Stein is gobbling so many playing minutes? Does he contribute something to the game that can not be seen by an amateur like me?
I just asked the same question earlier. He doesn’t do much on offense. Doesn’t seem to defend well either. That’s just my opinion. Give Moses a chance to start.
(11-02-2021, 10:13 PM)Borkhan Wrote: [ -> ]Can anyone explain to me why Willie Cauley Stein is gobbling so many playing minutes? Does he contribute something to the game that can not be seen by an amateur like me?
The team is succeeding when he plays. He leads the team with +25.3 on/off +/-. Defense is +21.5. He and Maxi have been the two most successful bigs for the Mavs outscoring their opponents this season.
(11-02-2021, 10:13 PM)Borkhan Wrote: [ -> ]Can anyone explain to me why Willie Cauley Stein is gobbling so many playing minutes? Does he contribute something to the game that can not be seen by an amateur like me?
KP and Maxi are out. That leaves Powell and WCS to get the majority of the minutes.
(11-02-2021, 10:06 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see things changing in a meaningful way until Luka demands Cuban remove himself from the decision making process. And I'm not sure if that would even get the job done.
The only hope for the franchise is that Luka demands a trade and Cuban gets bored owning a team without a generational talent and decides to sell.
WCS can play defense. Trash city of offense, though.
In modern NBA with the PNR...is a trash offensive big who can guard 1-5 worth 4 millions a year? Serious question. I dont know if a bench defensive big is worth 4M a year or not...or if it depends on a teams situation. Does Maxi fill that hole...or do you need a taller longer player like WCS sometimes at 4M per?
(11-02-2021, 10:18 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]The team is succeeding when he plays. He leads the team with +25.3 on/off +/-. Defense is +21.5. He and Maxi have been the two most successful bigs for the Mavs outscoring their opponents this season.
This is a good lesson in why you should not put a lot of stock into small sample +/-, whether its one game or a few games. Luka has been off shooting so far, but he has still been the best player for the Mavs on the court this season, and any stat that suggest we would be better off with WCS on the court instead of Luka needs to be treated with extreme skepticism.
The best hope for this team is for KP to go on a 5-6 game monster run (he will be hurt by Game 7) and for the team to immediately trade him. This is also why I don’t get the posts about how we cannot trade KP for Ben Simmons.
If Philly ever broached that I would do it in a heartbeat. At least Ben will get on the floor and play here which he clearly does not want in Philly. Trade him too once he plays a set of games here. Either way I am done with KP’s injuries and inability to stay on the court.
(11-02-2021, 10:27 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]This is a good lesson in why you should not put a lot of stock into small sample +/-, whether its one game or a few games. Luka has been off shooting so far, but he has still been the best player for the Mavs on the court this season, and any stat that suggest we would be better off with WCS on the court instead of Luka needs to be treated with extreme skepticism.
That is not how you interpret those numbers. Those are incorrect conclusions. The numbers are not saying what you just said.
In his respective role, WCS has been very successful this season with helping the team outscore the opponent. In his respective role, Luka has been very unsuccessful this season in helping the team outscore the opponent.
That does not mean you can switch their roles and get the same result.
It is a fact that DAL is getting outscored significantly in seven games when Luka plays. That doesn't mean Luka should be benched and someone else would do better. Again, those would be lazy and false conclusions that the numbers are not saying. But it does mean that the team's best player in his current role is not resulting in outscoring the opponent. This almost never happened with Dirk, and it happens with Luka at an alarming rate so far in his early career.
(11-02-2021, 10:34 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]That is not how you interpret those numbers. Those are incorrect conclusions. The numbers are not saying what you just said.
In his respective role, WCS has been very successful this season with helping the team outscore the opponent. In his respective role, Luka has been very unsuccessful this season in helping the team outscore the opponent. That does not mean you can switch their roles and get the same result.
It is a fact that DAL is getting outscored significantly in seven games when Luka plays. That doesn't mean Luka should be benched and someone else would do better. Again, those would be lazy and false conclusions that the numbers are not saying. But it does mean that the team's best player in his current role is not resulting in outscoring the opponent. This almost never happened with Dirk, and it happens with Luka at an alarming rate so far in his early career.
I think you need to re-examine the numbers then. This is not KAT or LaVine . This guy has taken this franchise to two straight playoffs in a conference that is much tougher than most of Dirk’s years here. The cast around him has a huge dropoff after him. He has also balled in the playoffs when defenses take it up a notch and he had to go twice against a very good defensive team. So if the numbers say the team is consistently getting out scored with Luka on the court, then something is wrong with those numbers.
This from one of the biggest Dirk fanboys and one who has been pretty critical of Luka, but c’mon.
(11-02-2021, 09:43 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]So for perspective:
In Dirk's first 19 seasons he NEVER had a negative +/- and almost always led the team in +/-. When Dirk played, the Mavs outscored their opponents, almost without fail.
Luka was negative in his first season, positive the last two (but not by a whole lot), and now in his fourth season is a team worst -25.7. I am super concerned that Luka is not the true superstar that I was hoping he would be. True superstars impact winning, PERIOD.
And before you blame the talent around Luka, don't. Worse talent around you actually makes being positive in +/- easier because the players who replace you suck.
This is genuinely the most alarming thing surrounding this team right now. The Mavs cannot outscore their opponents with Luka playing and are being outscored by 13.3 pts when he does. Seven games is a small sample size, sure, but these numbers are hugely alarming.
Luka is no Dirk. At least not yet. Dirk is one of the +/- GOATS. Only players with similar numbers in Dirk´s prime years are KG and LBJ. But we are talking about prime Dirk. Comparing them at a similar age Luka is way ahead. And Luka definitely played on a superstar level in the last two seasons (reflected by two NBA 1st teams and 4th and 6th rank in the MVP race). Just take a look at the end of the last season. Seven game sample size against the Clippers. +32.6 on/off. Over the entire series the Mavs were +7 with Luka on the floor. Actually winning against a way more talented team.
Or the following olympics. When Luka carried his team to the semi finals.
He isn´t playing great right now but that is nothing new in the early season. And we should be concerned about this trend. I don´t know if he is out of shape or overplayed but he isn´t moving like his usual mid/late season self. Not as focused. Making more mistakes on both ends.
Concerning but no reason to hit the panic button. The numbers are comparable to last season.
Luka´s shooting splits in december 2020: 43.8% FG,
9.5% from 3, 80.6% FT. Averaging 24/6/6. Only player with worse +/- numbers at that point was Powell.
And a lack of talent can definitely impact a players +/- numbers. It comes down to the roster construction. Best example are the pre Luka Mavs. The starting five lacked talent. The bench (JJB, Devin, Powell) looked great. Even the best starters had negative +/- numbers. Even the worst bench players had positive +/- numbers.
We are seeing something similar right now. And we had endless discussions about it. The Mavs starting five lacks talent (30m in salary are either injured or looking like the worst player on the floor). Bench on othe other hand looks really good. Whoever gets inserted into the starting lineup tanks his +/-. That´s why Kleber and Brunson aren´t leading in that category.
(11-02-2021, 10:55 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Luka is no Dirk. At least not yet. Dirk is one of the +/- GOATS. Only players with similar numbers in Dirk´s prime years are KG and LBJ. But we are talking about prime Dirk. Comparing them at a similar age Luka is way ahead. And Luka definitely played on a superstar level in the last two seasons (reflected by two NBA 1st teams and 4th and 6th rank in the MVP race). Just take a look at the end of the last season. Seven game sample size against the Clippers. +32.6 on/off. Over the entire series the Mavs were +7 with Luka on the floor. Actually winning against a way more talented team.
Or the following olympics. When Luka carried his team to the semi finals.
He isn´t playing great right now but that is nothing new in the early season. And we should be concerned about this trend. I don´t know if he is out of shape or overplayed but he isn´t moving like his usual mid/late season self. Not as focused. Making more mistakes on both ends.
Concerning but no reason to hit the panic button. The numbers are comparable to last season.
Luka´s shooting splits in december 2020: 43.8% FG, 9.5% from 3, 80.6% FT. Averaging 24/6/6. Only player with worse +/- numbers at that point was Powell.
And a lack of talent can definitely impact a players +/- numbers. It comes down to the roster construction. Best example are the pre Luka Mavs. The starting five lacked talent. The bench (JJB, Devin, Powell) looked great. Even the best starters had negative +/- numbers. Even the worst bench players had positive +/- numbers.
We are seeing something similar right now. And we had endless discussions about it. The Mavs starting five lacks talent (30m in salary are either injured or looking like the worst player on the floor). Bench on othe other hand looks really good. Whoever gets inserted into the starting lineup tanks his +/-. That´s why Kleber and Brunson aren´t leading in that category.
This is a really good, thoughtful, nuanced, and comprehending reply. Thanks for this.
I just really thought Luka would be better than Dirk. But Dirk had a work-ethic and consistency that I think embarrasses Luka at the same stage of his career. Luka's slow starts I think are deeply related to his diet and conditioning. That continues to be my biggest concern.
That went about how I expected it would.
(11-02-2021, 11:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I just really thought Luka would be better than Dirk. But Dirk had a work-ethic and consistency that I think embarrasses Luka at the same stage of his career. Luka's slow starts I think are deeply related to his diet and conditioning. That continues to be my biggest concern.
Could there be any...ANY...justification in Luka not being Lean or Chiseled because his play does not rely on it?
Could he be a tad bit better due to being lighter on your feet? If so...would a non-explosive athlete in an explosive athletes body be significantly better? or Marginal?
What I am getting at is...same thing was said about Tony Romo. A lot of fans including myself for years thought he would be more versatile if he maintained his early seasons weight and running speed(rolling out ability). A lot of other people thought it would be better for him to put weight on like Rothlisberger to absorb NFL hits.
Pick your poison I guess.
I just dont think Luka would be explosive even if 15 pounds lighter. He is a cerebral player...his game doesnt rely on athleticism. I think trying to make Luka athletic increases his injury risk tbh.
We can argue about stamina and all that...but regardless...his body type isnt an issue, imo. He'll never be a 19 year old Josh Green or Lamelo Ball that can go 48 minutes and not be exhausted. Luka is who he is. You want him healthy...but he doesnt need to be chiseled like Michelangelo. I think he can absorb some contact with his current body weight.
(11-02-2021, 11:52 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]Could there be any...ANY...justification in Luka not being Lean or Chiseled because his play does not rely on it?
Could he be a tad bit better due to being lighter on your feet? If so...would a non-explosive athlete in an explosive athletes body be significantly better? or Marginal?
What I am getting at is...same thing was said about Tony Romo. A lot of fans including myself for years thought he would be more versatile if he maintained his early seasons weight and running speed(rolling out ability). A lot of other people thought it would be better for him to put weight on like Rothlisberger to absorb NFL hits.
Pick your poison I guess.
I just dont think Luka would be explosive even if 15 pounds lighter. He is a cerebral player...his game doesnt rely on athleticism. I think trying to make Luka athletic increases his injury risk tbh.
We can argue about stamina and all that...but regardless...his body type isnt an issue, imo. He'll never be a 19 year old Josh Green or Lamelo Ball that can go 48 minutes and not be exhausted. Luka is who he is. You want him healthy...but he doesnt need to be chiseled like Michelangelo. I think he can absorb some contact with his current body weight.
He looked like a different person in the bubble (after the Covid break and enough time to work out). Mavs win the series last season, if he had bubble stamina i think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGsF5UrAeJM
That should been the goal body wise. If you give Luka Brunson diet/work ethic, i think Luka would be clearly knocking on the door of best player in the league already today.
It looks like he has a body type that adds weight at an alarming rate. He simply shouldn't eat anything he likes. Which he probably does at times. The problem will only get worse, once he gets older, and the metabolism slowing down.
(11-03-2021, 07:50 AM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]He simply shouldn't eat anything he likes. Which he probably does at times.
Luka apparently has a sweet tooth and loves alcohol....those things put him at a disadvantage in today's world where the elite athlete's are VERY careful about what they eat and drink. Dirk and Nash didn't go to MVP level in the league till they ate completely different and cut out the alcohol during the season.
(11-02-2021, 08:59 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: [ -> ]Losing Maxi is a pretty big deal admittedly. KP? Who the hell is that? I just see an entry in a ledger somewhere used to launder $31 million.
Maxi wouldn't have made a difference. He's still struggling from last season.
(11-02-2021, 10:34 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]That is not how you interpret those numbers. Those are incorrect conclusions. The numbers are not saying what you just said.
In his respective role, WCS has been very successful this season with helping the team outscore the opponent. In his respective role, Luka has been very unsuccessful this season in helping the team outscore the opponent. That does not mean you can switch their roles and get the same result.
It is a fact that DAL is getting outscored significantly in seven games when Luka plays. That doesn't mean Luka should be benched and someone else would do better. Again, those would be lazy and false conclusions that the numbers are not saying. But it does mean that the team's best player in his current role is not resulting in outscoring the opponent. This almost never happened with Dirk, and it happens with Luka at an alarming rate so far in his early career.
The numbers don't really say how well a player is doing in his respective role either. That is a narrative you are pulling from a small sample that does not exist. In a small sample those numbers are more about the other 4 guys you are generally playing with and the 5 guys you are playing against. In a small sample they are also heavily influenced by high variance 3 point percentage (on both sides). You have mentioned that you don't expect this team to shoot 31% from 3 for the rest of the year. We see numbers like that because it is a small sample. It is even smaller sample in +/- because a player does not play every minute of the game (and in WCS case less than half).
Honestly I think there is a limit to what you can get out of raw +/- even for an entire season. It is heavily affected by the quality of players you generally play with, and also the quality of players you play against (starter or bench). I find something like RPM more useful because it at least takes into account those variables, but it still needs a huge sample (potentially multiple years) to get a good picture.
(11-03-2021, 11:39 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Honestly I think there is a limit to what you can get out of raw +/- even for an entire season. It is heavily affected by the quality of players you generally play with, and also the quality of players you play against (starter or bench). I find something like RPM more useful because it at least takes into account those variables, but it still needs a huge sample (potentially multiple years) to get a good picture.
There is of course a limit to what you can learn. I would argue you can learn bird's eye view, big picture, generalizations. It is a big picture stat, not a microscope and if you try to use it as a microscope it will lead you astray. But even in a sample size of seven games (though something like 20 games would be much better) you can get a generalization of what has gone on in that window.
Yes, the quality of the players around you and across from you of course affects the numbers, as does random luck. But on/off +/- is one of the most faithful stats at correlating with stars and superstars and it has the best correlation to winning (outscoring the opponent which also includes random luck). Over large sample sizes it much more so than other numbers will reveal the general, bird's eye view impact of a player on winning and team D and O.
The correlation of on/off +/- to winning is fool-proof, but the causation must be concluded soberly, carefully, and contingently. So for example, we can say without doubt that Luka's presence has NOT correlated to winning for the Mavs. Now how much of that is his fault? Impossible to say, but we can confidently say SOME of it is his fault, but the degree of his fault is impossible to nail down. But we can at least discuss it. And based on what we know about superstars, it is alarming that he is dead last on the team (by a HUGE margin) in on/off +/- (again, something like this never happened to Dirk in 21 seasons). Again, some of that is luck, some is his teammates, and opponents, but some of that is on him.