TRADE: Davis, Hardy, DLO, Exum to WAS | Middleton, filler, 2 FRPs, 3 SRPs to DAL

[SweetFidelia]

Call me crazy, but did the Mavs just actually get better? I want an all out tank, but these dudes play hard for Kidd. Tyus Jones solves one of the Mavs biggest issues, turnovers.  He’s also been really good to great from 3 when given playing time the last 4 years. I’m really interested in a look at Bagley. I might actually watch a game for a change. Anywho, they might win more, which I’m not a fan of.  

I like hanging on to Jones at the right price. A very serviceable backup and nice mentor if Mavs draft a point, and a placeholder until they find one.  Bagley has never played for a good team.  His rookie season, the Kings won 39.  The next year, he was hurt, and they won 31. Those are the high water marks. He’s played for awful, awful teams, and he’s hurt a lot.  As a buckets getting big off the bench, I’m intrigued….at a cheap price. At 26, that’s probably not realistic.

[vfromlmf]

One interesting thing to note if you're into advanced stats. They are NOT KIND to Bagley and point to him being a very good (near All-Star level) individual performer who is a very very bad team player. Bagley is a classic example of why certain older metrics went out of style.

Bagley’s PER this year is 20.6 which is what you’d expect from a HIGH END starter. But his EPM is -2.1 which suggests a bad bench player. DARKO and LEBRON tell a similar story. His teams consistently perform better when he’s on the bench.

The problem with PER is it’s an old school metric that’s heavily weighted toward volume. Because Bagley is a fluid athlete who can jump twice before others jump once, he gathers points and rebounds quickly. But PER doesn't care if you missed a defensive rotation or if the offense stalled because you didn't pass. It only cares that you ended the possession with a bucket or a board.

Modern metrics look at how the team performs when a player is on the court versus off. This is where Bagley’s "picture" changes:

LEBRON and EPM are particularly harsh on Bagley because of his "defensive feel." He often has high block/steal totals (which help PER), but his teams consistently defend better when he is on the bench. Modern metrics see that the team gives up more points at the rim when he's playing.

While Bagley scores, he isn't a "connector." He has low assist rates and doesn't floor-space effectively. DARKO and EPM track how his presence affects his teammates' shooting percentages; typically, teammates' efficiency drops when he is clogging the lane.

These metrics identify that while Bagley gets his stats, those stats don't lead to a higher net point differential for his team.

I was pretty high on Bagley before looking into this so we'll just have to see how he looks in a Mavs uniform. But be wary, it may turn out that he fills the box score and passes the eye test but the team performs worse when he's on the floor. Good for the tank I guess.

[mvossman]

One interesting thing to note if you're into advanced stats. They are NOT KIND to Bagley and point to him being a very good (near All-Star level) individual performer who is a very very bad team player. Bagley is a classic example of why certain older metrics went out of style.

Bagley’s PER this year is 20.6 which is what you’d expect from a HIGH END starter. But his EPM is -2.1 which suggests a bad bench player. DARKO and LEBRON tell a similar story. His teams consistently perform better when he’s on the bench.

The problem with PER is it’s an old school metric that’s heavily weighted toward volume. Because Bagley is a fluid athlete who can jump twice before others jump once, he gathers points and rebounds quickly. But PER doesn't care if you missed a defensive rotation or if the offense stalled because you didn't pass. It only cares that you ended the possession with a bucket or a board.

Modern metrics look at how the team performs when a player is on the court versus off. This is where Bagley’s "picture" changes:

LEBRON and EPM are particularly harsh on Bagley because of his "defensive feel." He often has high block/steal totals (which help PER), but his teams consistently defend better when he is on the bench. Modern metrics see that the team gives up more points at the rim when he's playing.

While Bagley scores, he isn't a "connector." He has low assist rates and doesn't floor-space effectively. DARKO and EPM track how his presence affects his teammates' shooting percentages; typically, teammates' efficiency drops when he is clogging the lane.

These metrics identify that while Bagley gets his stats, those stats don't lead to a higher net point differential for his team.

I was pretty high on Bagley before looking into this so we'll just have to see how he looks in a Mavs uniform. But be wary, it may turn out that he fills the box score and passes the eye test but the team performs worse when he's on the floor. Good for the tank I guess.

I guess I'm not sure what you are looking at?  Is this for his career?  Just looking at this season his EPM is positive and his defensive is zero, which is quite good for a vet min player.  He has one of the better net ratings on the Wiz and middle of the pack on defense.  I'm not expecting a ton from him, but at least his recent advanced stats look fine.

[Chicagojk]

I really, really liked Bagley entering the draft.   I am looking forward to watching him (Johnson and Middleton too).  His highlights look good.  My guess is he will not be someone I prefer over Lively or Gafford.  If so, I would prefer a guy like Cisse or Powell as a minimum third center.  We will see though.  The league is filtered with guys who didn't live up to the hype, who then kept grinding and eventually found the right team and became a valuable role player.  Heck, his college teammate Grayson Allen may be one of them.  

I also want to see if Middleton has anything left too.  I thought he was done.  Crazy that there was a time that he was the ideal prototype we hoped to find to pair with Luka.    Maybe he can be that veteran player who knows how to play and can hit open shots.   Probably not likely he sticks around, but I could see Kidd liking him on the roster.

AJ johnson too.   I believe Dan mentioned a taller Brandon Williams.  I think that is a good comparison.  He is not as good as Williams now but is around 5 years younger.    Finding ways to get on the floor and capitalize on playing time is the tough part.

[vfromlmf]

I guess I'm not sure what you are looking at?  Is this for his career?  Just looking at this season his EPM is positive and his defensive is zero, which is quite good for a vet min player.  He has one of the better net ratings on the Wiz and middle of the pack on defense.  I'm not expecting a ton from him, but at least his recent advanced stats look fine.

I’m glad you double checked. I just googled “what’s Bagley’s EPM this year” and that’s what I got from the AI answer. I should’ve fact checked it. These AI tools give inaccurate information a lot. It’s a little scary tbh.

[mvossman]

I’m glad you double checked. I just googled “what’s Bagley’s EPM this year” and that’s what I got from the AI answer. I should’ve fact checked it. These AI tools give inaccurate information a lot. It’s a little scary tbh.

Yep.  AI definitely does not stand for accurate information.  It may have been looking at estimated EPM.  This is a new thing the EPM added this year and it annoyingly defaults to that on the web site.  It might be concerning that his expected EPM is so much lower than actual, but I don't know enough about that stat to know what to make of it.

[Smitty]

Dirks comments on the AD trade:

https://x.com/nbaonprime/status/20202600...58773?s=46&t=4w35gotNXtBJnqxbaL7e9w

[Smitty]

Super athletic. Kind of a mix of Gafford and Lively offensively. I was going to point out the nice lefty push shot until I realized he’s left handed  . He’s a little lazy on screen setting but does a good job rolling and finishing above the rim. His passing is a bright spot, especially from the top of the key, in the short roll. That’s where I see some of the Lively comparisons. Has a little more midrange game than both Gaff/DLive. Anyway, I definitely think he’s a decent NBA-level Big. Excited to see how he does here the next 30 games or so. I can see the Mavs bringing him back as the 2nd/3rd Big next year if all goes well.

I couldn’t watch the game tonight but saw the Bagley highlights. Lot of the same…

How was he defensively in his debut?