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Predictions are Tough (especially about the future)
#41
I do want to add, should the Mavs keep the pick, they're going to select 1 of Whitmore/Dick/Hendricks (as they're my favorite guys). I don't think they keep the pick though.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#42
(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck: 

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N  No.  If he is--he will not last the season.

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U  Under

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U  Over.  I originally "hoped" it would be under, but that's not really realistic.

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade  I'm going to stick with Keep--mostly because I hope that is what they do.  The Mavs don't have a great record on their trades--of any kind.

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  __I was thinking Lively--but I'm going with Noah Clowney--at #10.

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Dwight Powell

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N  Y--over...but not with the Mavs.

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be:  Over the first apron
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  Bertans 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)?  Jaxson Hayes--overpay...

Apparently I used the word "hope" too many times--and did not provided names, which is really just a guess from me, so--this will be a REDO of my original "prediction" (guess).  I agree that I was a prevaricating worm with my original "prediction".
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#43
To add to predictions. My top 14 predictions are as follows in order:

1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Brandon Miller
3. Scoot Henderson
4. Amen Thompson
5. Jarace Walker
6. Bilal Coulibaly
7. Anthony Black
8. Ausar Thompson
9. Grady Dick
10. Cam Whitmore
11. Taylor Hendricks
12. Derrick Lively II
13. Cason Wallace
14. Leonard Miller
15. Jordan Hawkins
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#44
1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season? Yes

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract? Over

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract? Over

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10? Keep

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)? _Lively_________

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July? _Powell__________

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE? Yes

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: Over the 1st apron
1. Under the LT
2. Between the LT and first apron
3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July? __Bertans____________

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? ______N/A___________
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#45
1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  U, I say lower 1st year number but 5 years with a PO

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  U, vet min if he stays here. O if he goes to some other team

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Trade down

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  Leonard Miller (probably wrong now with Allen trade but Ill leave it)

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Kinda cheese waiting this long but now that the rumor is out, Jarrett Allen

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y, S&T to Cleveland

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July? Bullock

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Hayes or Bamba
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#46
Damn.  Of all people, I should have predicted Powell as starting center to start next season Smile
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#47
(06-22-2023, 09:09 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Damn.  Of all people, I should have predicted Powell as starting center to start next season Smile
That would be wrong too, he’ll start 7 games in!

2 for 2 so far with 4 and 5!
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#48
(06-22-2023, 08:20 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: To add to predictions. My top 14 predictions are as follows in order:

1. Victor Wembanyama Yes
2. Brandon Miller   Yes
3. Scoot Henderson Yes 
4. Amen Thompson Yes
5. Jarace Walker  No (Ausar Thompson)
6. Bilal Coulibaly No (Anthony Black)
7. Anthony Black No (Bilal Coulibaly)
8. Ausar Thompson No (Jarace Walker)
9. Grady Dick No (Taylor Hendricks)
10. Cam Whitmore No (Cason Wallace)
11. Taylor Hendricks No (Jett Howard)
12. Derrick Lively II Yes
13. Cason Wallace No (Gradey Dick)
14. Leonard Miller No (Jordan Hawkins)
15. Jordan Hawkins (No Kobe Bufkin)

5/15 picks predicted correctly. Prrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeetty bad. My 1 random dude who went way too high pick was Leonard Miller but it turned out to be Jett Howard. 

If consolation prizes are a thing, I did select the 13/14 players that made it into the lottery, although it was a pretty well established consensus  Big Grin

Curious to see how the rest of the predictions play out.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#49
Nice job board! You nailed the draft pick challenge. Lively was the clear cut top prediction. We know our team, right!? But, most of us begged off the question about free agency by picking a current Mav, if anyone at all. Let’s try again, this is a useful and fun thread (thanks Dan). I’ll start.

What happens with Kyrie? Kyrie stays. I’m changing from my original prediction of SnT.

Who’s the free agent acquisition (non 2022-23 Mavs only this time, please)? Barnes. Mavs will (correctly) think they need a productive veteran with a winning pedigree, even though it’s kind of boring. (I’d love most of all if they could get Cam Johnson, but don’t see how to do it.)
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#50
(06-24-2023, 08:22 AM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: Nice job board!  You nailed the draft pick challenge. Lively was the clear cut top prediction.  We know our team, right!?  But, most of us begged off the question about free agency by picking a current Mav, if anyone at all.  Let’s try again, this is a useful and fun thread (thanks Dan). I’ll start.

What happens with Kyrie?  Kyrie stays.  I’m changing from my original prediction of SnT.

Who’s the free agent acquisition (non 2022-23 Mavs only this time, please)?  Barnes. Mavs will (correctly) think they need a productive veteran with a winning pedigree, even though it’s kind of boring. (I’d love most of all if they could get Cam Johnson, but don’t see how to do it.)

Thanks.  That was the original intent of the question.
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#51
Welp, still a chance THJ gets traded and Capela is our starting C. Other than that…spot on for me. Question? Does Grant Williams still count as a signing considering he was a part of a trade?
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#52
(07-06-2023, 03:50 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Welp, still a chance THJ gets traded and Capela is our starting C. Other than that…spot on for me. Question? Does Grant Williams still count as a signing considering he was a part of a trade?

Yes. He negotiated the contract with Dallas, not Boston.
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#53
I am never right on predictions, so I am pretty happy getting close. Now don't blame me if they suck.


https://www.mavsboard.com/showthread.php?tid=2444&pid=185058#pid185058

I mean it won't happen, but I would be thrilled with an offseason like this:

Draft Lively--Maybe trade with Orlando. Get pick 36. Maybe something else?
Pick 36- Someone like GG Jackson
Trade for Grant Williams
Take a flier on a young kid like Trevor Keels- supposedly one of the guys Dallas targeted before Hardy fell.
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#54
(07-07-2023, 12:00 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: I am never right on predictions, so I am pretty happy getting close.  Now don't blame me if they suck.


https://www.mavsboard.com/showthread.php?tid=2444&pid=185058#pid185058

I mean it won't happen, but I would be thrilled with an offseason like this:

Draft Lively--Maybe trade with Orlando. Get pick 36. Maybe something else?
Pick 36- Someone like GG Jackson
Trade for Grant Williams
Take a flier on a young kid like Trevor Keels- supposedly one of the guys Dallas targeted before Hardy fell.

Nice!

This is probably the season where JKidd would start taking the blame, right?
Not very astute ^^^^
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#55
Turns out Dan’s O/U on DP was right on the money!
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#56
There is no way I would have predicted that we would be on 7/11 talking about the Mavs staying under the TAX... They tried to get over it, but I could not see a scenario where Nico would chase restricted FA's. It would be funny if the Atlanta need to move off of Capela would get us involved to the 1st Apron line, but I underestimated how damaged the market was for Wood. Pretty close to the mark otherwise with a Powell/Maxi prediction at starting C.
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