GAME 59: DAL (35-24) vs. NOP (23-36): 125-118 WIN!

[mvossman]

Well that's the difference between how I feel and how others feel.

Right now, Sterling Brown has a better stat line that Green, but Sterling Brown is slightly cheaper than Green. On top of that, Green is due a raise next season. 

I wouldn't keep either one at this point (if I could trade them), but most people here believe Green will be a better player. I think Green will be a better player too, but will probably not have much better stats next year than Sterling Brown does now - so my upside is marginal.

Clearly, people are more patient than me.

I think they are similar now, but Brown is 27 and in his 5th year.  If you are not going to have patience with a 21 year old in his second season after a Covid related developmentally limited rookie season, I'm not sure who you could have patience for?

Another reason I don't think it makes sense to trade Green is he profiles to a type of player that I think is undervalued in the market (defensive players with low volume scoring).  Its the same reason I don't think it will ever make sense to trade DFS or Maxi.  I think they all provide more value than the market will pay/trade for.

[Winter]

My only suggestion, FWIW, is don’t get so caught up in the stats/numbers

What should I be looking at then? What metric? Do we just eyeball him and decide?

Another reason I don't think it makes sense to trade Green is he profiles to a type of player that I think is undervalued in the market

I think that's true, but I wasn't thinking of trading his straight up one-for-one. Years ago we traded Justin Anderson at this exact same time in a package deal along with Bogut. He was drafted about the same time as Green (21st). His stats were never much better than that year we traded him. He had a slightly better year in Philly shortly after, but even they traded him after one season. As a side note, he's still in the league and plays for Rick Carlisile.

But I think Anderson is a reasonable comparison. Anderson is still a serviceable player. But his best value was in a trade. He's at the end of the bench now, but when he was with Dallas he had a few nice games.

[mvossman]

I think that's true, but I wasn't thinking of trading his straight up one-for-one. Years ago we traded Justin Anderson at this exact same time in a package deal along with Bogut. He was drafted about the same time as Green (21st). His stats were never much better than that year we traded him. He had a slightly better year in Philly shortly after, but even they traded him after one season. As a side note, he's still in the league and plays for Rick Carlisile.

But I think Anderson is a reasonable comparison. Anderson is still a serviceable player. But his best value was in a trade. He's at the end of the bench now, but when he was with Dallas he had a few nice games.

I think it would be a better comp if Justin was 3 years younger when he was drafted.  That makes a big difference.  There is a lot more potential growth from a 20 year old with one year of college vs a 23 year old with 3 years.  Especially when the younger one seems to have a higher BBIQ to start with.

[Winter]

I think it would be a better comp if Justin was 3 years younger when he was drafted.  That makes a big difference.  There is a lot more potential growth from a 20 year old with one year of college vs a 23 year old with 3 years.  Especially when the younger one seems to have a higher BBIQ to start with.

We should give him more time. That's what everyone is telling me.  

Somehow the fans here are willing not only to keep Josh Green, but to give him a raise next season based on his potential. We think he's going to be better than Justin Anderson was during his best year (when he registered 6.2 points per game in Philly), based on .... eyeballing him I think. Not stats apparently. 

OK. Just checking.

[Smitty]

We should give him more time. That's what everyone is telling me.  

Somehow the fans here are willing not only to keep Josh Green, but to give him a raise next season based on his potential. We think he's going to be better than Justin Anderson was during his best year (when he registered 6.2 points per game in Philly), based on .... eyeballing him I think. Not stats apparently. 

OK. Just checking.

You continue to mention stats and seem sold on PPG as the end all be all, using Anderson's numbers to fit your preconceived opinion of Green based on 83 NBA games for a 21 year old.

Here are some stats:

If Green increases his PPG at the same rate from year one to year two he will average 7.5 PPG next year.

Jae Crowder averaged 4.6 points in 16 mpg over 181 games for the Mavs between ages 22-24. Josh Green is 21 averaging 4.4 points in 14 mpg this year.

Dorrian Finney-Smith at age 23 averaged 4.3 points in 81 games playing 20.3 minutes per game.

Draymond Green at age 22 averaged 2.9 points in 79 games playing 13.4 minutes per game.


Me personally, I don't care about Green's PPG but you seem to, so there are some stats for you to consider. I'm glad the Mavs didn't share your strong opinion on PPG being so meaningful for DFS and I'm sure the Warriors are pretty happy about keeping Draymond around past age 23.

[mvossman]

We should give him more time. That's what everyone is telling me.  

Somehow the fans here are willing not only to keep Josh Green, but to give him a raise next season based on his potential. We think he's going to be better than Justin Anderson was during his best year (when he registered 6.2 points per game in Philly), based on .... eyeballing him I think. Not stats apparently. 

OK. Just checking.

Stats are probably not the best way to assess 21 year old NBA player in his second season, but if you want stats, lets use something better than points per game.  The best box score stat is BPM and the best advanced on/off stats are EPM and Lebron:

Justin Anderson    EPM  Lebron  BPM
2016                    -1.3   0.34       0.3
2017                    -2.3  -1.45     -1.3
2018                    -1.6  -1.90     -1.0

Josh Green 
2021                    -4.6  -1.68     -3.6
2022                    -1.4  -1.28     -0.3

Based on this, Justin peaked his rookie season.  The numbers for his remaining years are not any better.  Josh had a rough rookie year, but in his second year he is at least as good as Justin has been his entire career.  Considering Green's improvement from the beginning of this season to now (and his age and limited experience), it is very easy to project continued improvement for a while.

[Winter]

You continue to mention stats and seem sold on PPG as the end all be all, using Anderson's numbers to fit your preconceived opinion of Green based on 83 NBA games for a 21 year old.

Smitty, Mvossman, Guys, I'm just trying to find any numbers for Josh Green that makes me think he is a keeper on this team. I keep being told not to rely on his stats. 

I apparently can't use his stats because he's too young. And I can't compare him to anyone else. So I really have no ammunition to work with. It's subjective. I have nothing else I can add. 

You would like to wait on him, and most here would like to add his option next season where he will be paid close to a full 3 million a year and then 4.7 million the year following. I sure wouldn't. So I guess we wait and find out.

[Mavs2021]

I think they are similar now, but Brown is 27 and in his 5th year.  If you are not going to have patience with a 21 year old in his second season after a Covid related developmentally limited rookie season, I'm not sure who you could have patience for?

Another reason I don't think it makes sense to trade Green is he profiles to a type of player that I think is undervalued in the market (defensive players with low volume scoring).  Its the same reason I don't think it will ever make sense to trade DFS or Maxi.  I think they all provide more value than the market will pay/trade for.

Oh I´m pretty sure DFS and Kleber are valued very highly. I don´t think it´s for a lack of offers that they have not been moved. The reason Green hasn´t been moved is that he´s just not very good (right now). Baby steps with him. He improved his shooting percentages by 5/15/15 percentage points from his rookie season already.  Confidence is still a huge issue, but we´ll get the Carlisle out of his system, the damage was not permanent. 

[dirkfansince1998]

Smitty, Mvossman, Guys, I'm just trying to find any numbers for Josh Green that makes me think he is a keeper on this team. I keep being told not to rely on his stats. 

I apparently can't use his stats because he's too young. And I can't compare him to anyone else. So I really have no ammunition to work with. It's subjective. I have nothing else I can add. 

You would like to wait on him, and most here would like to add his option next season where he will be paid close to 4 million a year. I sure wouldn't. So I guess we wait and find out.

Where are the contract numbers coming from? He will make 3,098,400 next season. Less than Boban or Burke. Basically what Brown is making right now. Considering that he is the only regular rotation player among the mentioned guys that isn´t a bad deal.
What I am looking at when I evaluate Green is the team performance with him on the floor. His +/- numbers are among the best on the team. 3rd among players with more than 100 minutes.
We don´t have to wait for him to turn into a player that deserves the current salary. He is playing regular rotation minutes on a playoff team. It´s not the DFS or Justin Anderson situation. Mavs aren´t bad or tanking. Green earned his minutes.

[dirkfansince1998]

I blame Donnie, RC and Mark for the current situation. Mavs have a number of bad contracts but people complain about the rookie deal. Not Burke or Boban. Players that are making more. Play less. Have no upside.

[SkenfromLMF]

The difference between Green (since Bane called him out) and anyone else Winter has mentioned is defensive usage. Green is actually helping DFS because his presence allows DFS and/or Bullock to take a lesser player defensively which is important if you want them to continue to be + offensive players in addition to + defenders. Last night, when McCullom was guarded by Green he had to work to get open and is one of the reasons the Mavs built the lead in the 2nd quarter. When Dallas started to hit shots, New Orleans struggled primarily because Green was making CJ work so hard to get the ball. I see Green becoming a lesser Bruce Bowen type defender. He is improving offensively and that might be a bit of a stretch offensively for comparison, but defensively Green is starting to be a difference maker.

[Winter]

Where are the contract numbers coming from? He will make 3,

I fixed that in my original post just as you posted. Sorry.

but defensively Green is starting to be a difference maker.

He's definitely in the lineup for his energy and defense. I wouldn't use the word "difference maker" but it's clearly his best attribute.  Still the language being used here is more eyeballing and hope to me.

[mvossman]

Oh I´m pretty sure DFS and Kleber are valued very highly. I don´t think it´s for a lack of offers that they have not been moved. The reason Green hasn´t been moved is that he´s just not very good (right now). Baby steps with him. He improved his shooting percentages by 5/15/15 percentage points from his rookie season already.  Confidence is still a huge issue, but we´ll get the Carlisle out of his system, the damage was not permanent. 

Guys like DFS, Crowder, Covington, Danny Green generally don't get much more than the MLE.  Meanwhile guys like THJ, Norman Powell and Fournier all got 18 mil a year.  I would rather have a guy in the first list than a guy in the second.  From what I can see, trade returns reflect a similar disparity.  That is why I think it generally does not make sense to send out a guy like that in a trade because you will not get back the value he brings to the team.

Honestly, I am not a fan of players in the second group (which includes Bertans), especially in Kidd's system.  I feel like what makes the most sense is to have two players on the court that can generate offense for themselves or others (Luka, Brunson, Din), two 3&D players (DFS, Maxi, Bullock) and a mobile rim protecting center (maybe Maxi but preferably someone like Holmes).  Green falls in a hybrid group that can play defense, some playmaking and an occasional 3.  If he can improve from 3 and get a little more aggressive on offense in general I think he will become very valuable.

[Smitty]

I fixed that in my original post just as you posted. Sorry.




He's definitely in the lineup for his energy and defense. I wouldn't use the word "difference maker" but it's clearly his best attribute.  Still the language being used here is more eyeballing and hope to me.

You were just shown stats for PPG (your original argument/justification) for your opinion- as well as BPM numbers and chose to ignore them.

[Winter]

You were just shown stats for PPG (your original argument/justification) for your opinion- as well as BPM numbers and chose to ignore them.

I didn't mean to. Really. I'll go back and look.

Edit: I guess you mean the Crowder, Draymond, PPGs? 

Yes, at that age the respective coaching staffs saw something in those players. It's entirely possible our coaching staff sees something in Green. I don't know exactly what that is, but you could be right.

My original argument was not exactly how you couched it. I think Green is a serviceable player who is a better value in a trade package for another player (sooner rather than later). I don't think his play now warrants us spending the rest of his contract (next year or the year after) just to find out he's a little bit better than he is right now. There are other wings out there that would be more useful in my opinion.

[SleepingHero]

I don't know.

On the one hand I agree that Luka being a playmaker is always the best thing. I think the offense does look better when the ball is flying around like a hot potato. 

BUT, if your superstar player is 15-26 after 3 quarters and has all around looked dominant, I'm okay with letting him force shots.  While it might not be the most efficient/best play, there's something to giving the ball to the hottest most skilled hand and telling him make a basket. 

Luka missed 2 wide open layups in the 4th that would've sealed it had they gone in. He really only took 2 wild shots that had no chance (the half court heave in the 2nd, and the turnaround 3pter in the beginning 4th) and 1 was when the game looked out of reach and he was about to sit down. 

I do think we're being overly critical at times. Luka played last night 99% perfect. And at some point it's up to the rest of the guys (JB, Dinwiddie, Maxi, DFS) to step up and be able to carry some of the load when Luka sits even if Luka took a lot of shots that "iced" people out. 

(As an aside JB had 23 points on 8-13 shooting. He didn't seem like he was ice cold despite Luka dominating the ball).

[MrGoat]

I don't know.

On the one hand I agree that Luka being a playmaker is always the best thing. I think the offense does look better when the ball is flying around like a hot potato. 

BUT, if your superstar player is 15-26 after 3 quarters and has all around looked dominant, I'm okay with letting him force shots.  While it might not be the most efficient/best play, there's something to giving the ball to the hottest most skilled hand and telling him make a basket. 

Luka missed 2 wide open layups in the 4th that would've sealed it had they gone in. He really only took 2 wild shots that had no chance (the half court heave in the 2nd, and the turnaround 3pter in the beginning 4th) and 1 was when the game looked out of reach and he was about to sit down. 

I do think we're being overly critical at times. Luka played last night 99% perfect. And at some point it's up to the rest of the guys (JB, Dinwiddie, Maxi, DFS) to step up and be able to carry some of the load when Luka sits even if Luka took a lot of shots that "iced" people out. 

(As an aside JB had 23 points on 8-13 shooting. He didn't seem like he was ice cold despite Luka dominating the ball).

I give Luka the biggest of mulligans for that 4th quarter. He had 45 11 and 8 going into the 4th, and it was up to 47 13 and 8 when we subbed him out early in the 4th and we were up 24. The lead quickly evaporated down to 15 with him out. That's not on Luka, that's on the rest of the team. We were excited to see him being forced back into the game hoping for a truly historic night, but Luka looked gassed and out of rhythm when he came back in which really shouldn't have been surprising. As poorly as we played the rest of the way Luka had already done enough that we still managed to survive the Pelicans' valiant effort

[Halfnir]

What should I be looking at then? What metric? Do we just eyeball him and decide?

How about actually watching the games and judge what he does on the court and how much useful stuff does not end up in the boxscore? I really hate it when people judge players, esp. young, developing ones and defensive/team minded players, just by stats and then even pick the most simple ones like PPG/RPG/APG. Context matters and the boxscore neglects all of this. 

The current state of Josh Green is far from a perfect player, but comparing him to the likes of Sterling Brown, Josh Anderson, eliminating all context (Brown is 6 years older, Anderson was 3 years older when drafted and got quite a bit of freedom on a tanking Mavs team) is not a fair evaluation. Josh had a very difficult start in a troubled NBA franchise with a lot of issues behind the scenes, being mostly ignored by the coach in the first year, with training/development options being hindered by COVID (no G-League, Orlando Bubble, etc.). Regardless, he improved enough to actually earn some playing time this year, playing a low-key role but doing a lot of small things that help the team. 

He's still 21, 1.5 years younger than S.Bey and 2.5 younger than Bane, guys from his rookie class that have outperformed him until now, but it it is still open who will be the better player at age of 24 (Josh has 3 more years to improve). When he plays, i see a lot of BBIQ and energy, good handles and athleticism, good 1-1 defense. I also see a still inconsistent jump shot and a player who knows this and limits his attempts (maybe more than for his own good). He's on a playoff team and can not take the freedom to jack up 15-20 shots a game, which would make him an 15-20 ppg player (if is eFG scales to higher volume). 

His trade value and his on court value should go hand in hand with a premium on his potential. I don't think his potential is highly rated league wise, so giving up on a 21yr old two year player who shows positive development to save some meaningless salary on an over-the-cap team means cashing in on low on an asset that could become a much better one. Same things could have been (rightfully) said about JB after his first 2 years (8 PPG on 18 MPG, meh ... and another guy who was already 23 after his 2nd year), look where he is today.