Luxury Tax Hell

[Dirknows]

Yeah, you might be right. 

It's tough to tell with him. Last night's Kleber is worth more and would be a sought after player. He hasn't been that player often enough lately (maybe he'll do better down the stretch this year). He'll get paid pretty handsomely just for being a big who can shoot a little, but maybe he's gettable for less than I think.

At their ages, I would hesitate to give them much money. Who knows, maybe they’ll have found a true starting 5 by then.

[Jommybone]

. . .

MK I would think would get less as well....he will be 31 entering free agency (assuming next year's $9M is guaranteed by the Mavs). It is hard for me to imagine someone paying a 31 and soon to be 32 year old MK more than $9M per year.

Really? A defensive-minded big who can stretch the floor, protect the rim, and switch onto guards? How many of them make less than Maxi? How many of them are there?

[omahen]

Mavs should stop paying 10 mil per year to every rotation player, imho. Realistically, Powell and Kleber are back ups in their thirties (in 2023 when their contract expire). I think Powell will be BaE level and Maxi rMLE tops, if thinking about long term contracts. One year deals could be higher (so they can be used in trade - see Dragic contract as example).

[SleepingHero]

My guess is that Powell gets less on his next deal and Kleber gets more. I haven't thought about it much though.

Serge Ibaka signed a 2 yr/18mil deal at the age of 31. I think that's Maxi's best comp. To me 3/30 is probably the most I'd do. 

Powell should get the BAE.

[KillerLeft]

Serge Ibaka signed a 2 yr/18mil deal at the age of 31. I think that's Maxi's best comp. To me 3/30 is probably the most I'd do. 

Powell should get the BAE.

I buy your Ibaka comp. Pretty good one.

[Jommybone]

Gotta pay to play. Either Cuban wants to win really bad. Or he doesn’t. 

The OP is a great post. Appreciate the info. But I haven’t joined the Cuban haters’ club cause I’ve always believed he’d pony up once it’s obviously a competitive advantage to do so. And next year sure looks like the time.

Wonder if Boban will turn into a medical retirement exclusion.

This thread has aged pretty well, imho. with the exception of the take above by yours truly. At least right now, it seems that Cubes is the cheap bastard that many here have been calling him since ‘11. I’m THIS CLOSE to jumping on that bandwagon. Waiting, I guess, for this rumored big trade that surely must be out there to explain the nonsense since the Wood trade went down.

[KillerLeft]

Waiting, I guess, for this rumored big trade that surely must be out there to explain the nonsense since the Wood trade went down.

Even if a good move is made, which is still possible, the team payroll next season will be far less than what it would have been with the assumed Brunson contract. With very little in the way of ability to add salary in the near future. Whatever they do from here, good or bad, will be moving salary around or subtracting even more, not adding. 

That's why some of us have been so angry. It is what it is.

[F Gump]

Even if a good move is made, which is still possible, the team payroll next season will be far less than what it would have been with the assumed Brunson contract. With very little in the way of ability to add salary in the near future. Whatever they do from here, good or bad, will be moving salary around or subtracting even more, not adding. 

That's why some of us have been so angry. It is what it is.

I don't think "they could have spent more, but didn't" is a legit Mav criticism at this point. It's not about how much you spend, but how you spend it. I would actually hope the Mavs work to spend efficiently, rather than spend more. And nothing wrong with paying less tax IF you aren't doing so with a disregard for whether this enhances your ability to win a title.

In this case, there's evidence they were prepared to spend a ton on Brunson, and to go deep into tax territory. They didn't run from the tax at all.

But then 1) Brunson preferred NY if the money was right, 2) NY money-whipped him way beyond all expectations (and somewhat remade their entire roster for JB) so that JB became convinced it was his spot and he would be taken care of, and 3) Dallas didn't want to try to money-whip JB even further where his preference changed, but JB didn't care anyhow. It's possible the Mavs had no real shot once Brunson had decided he had seen enough by NY, recognized the commitment, and was going to NY and the money was sufficient to end looking elsewhere.

In addition, we all felt there would be some point at which the JB dollars could no longer make sense. While I think in the long run JB may prove to be a max-level player, I know I'm in the vast minority on his trajectory and do think that sort of deal was way beyond the consensus on his value, so it's an unfair expectation that anyone should have offered him way more than he got. It's fair for the Mavs to have set limits too.

Having said that,
1) I think the jury is out on Cuban's willingness to spend and continue to pay tax,
2) I think we will see ample crossroads ahead where we get indications of whether the Mavs are working smartly with money, or just being cheap,
3) I am NOT convinced the Mavs will make avoiding the tax next summer a priority,
4) there is value in doing what you can to avoid tax when you are close,
5) if they do it next summer, how they get there will be revealing.
I don't think the JB outcome was part of that at all, however.

[StepBackJay]

When I saw the tax implications of resigned JB I got nervous ab Mavs willingness to pay him. It would have put them in GSW level tax. I think that put a strong lid on how much they were willing to give him and NYK obviously made it a priority to pay him above market rate in order to steal him away.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think "they could have spent more, but didn't" is a legit Mav criticism at this point. It's not about how much you spend, but how you spend it. I would actually hope the Mavs work to spend efficiently, rather than spend more. And nothing wrong with paying less tax IF you aren't doing so with a disregard for whether this enhances your ability to win a title.

In this case, there's evidence they were prepared to spend a ton on Brunson, and to go deep into tax territory. They didn't run from the tax at all.

But then 1) Brunson preferred NY if the money was right, 2) NY money-whipped him way beyond all expectations (and somewhat remade their entire roster for JB) so that JB became convinced it was his spot and he would be taken care of, and 3) Dallas didn't want to try to money-whip JB even further where his preference changed, but JB didn't care anyhow. It's possible the Mavs had no real shot once Brunson had decided he had seen enough by NY, recognized the commitment, and was going to NY and the money was sufficient to end looking elsewhere.

In addition, we all felt there would be some point at which the JB dollars could no longer make sense. While I think in the long run JB may prove to be a max-level player, I know I'm in the vast minority on his trajectory and do think that sort of deal was way beyond the consensus on his value, so it's an unfair expectation that anyone should have offered him way more than he got. It's fair for the Mavs to have set limits too.

Having said that,
1) I think the jury is out on Cuban's willingness to spend and continue to pay tax,
2) I think we will see ample crossroads ahead where we get indications of whether the Mavs are working smartly with money, or just being cheap,
3) I am NOT convinced the Mavs will make avoiding the tax next summer a priority,
4) there is value in doing what you can to avoid tax when you are close,
5) if they do it next summer, how they get there will be revealing.
I don't think the JB outcome was part of that at all, however.

Agree with all of this, including your projection of Brunson’s future. My feelings stem from my belief that the Mavs are incapable of spending efficiently enough to win on a budget and a small, last-ditch hope that they might be willing to spend more as a method of getting through this rough roster patch more quickly. 

I have said many times that it’s not our money, so we can’t demand it be spent. Overall, I’m right in line with this thinking. I just don’t know that I trust them to work this out at all, let alone in time to make something of their time with Luka. The Brunson disaster took a big bite out of my willingness to give them any benefit of the doubt with that. Now that they really CAN’T add significant salary, that hope is forfeit.

[F Gump]

Agree with all of this, including your projection of Brunson’s future. My feelings stem from my belief that the Mavs are incapable of spending efficiently enough to win on a budget and a small, last-ditch hope that they might be willing to spend more as a method of getting through this rough roster patch more quickly. 

I have said many times that it’s not our money, so we can’t demand it be spent. Overall, I’m right in line with this thinking. I just don’t know that I trust them to work this out at all, let alone in time to make something of their time with Luka. The Brunson disaster took a big bite out of my willingness to give them any benefit of the doubt with that. Now that they really CAN’T add significant salary, that hope is forfeit.

I don't really disagree with any of this. I share your wariness on whether they will really spend what it takes -- but, I just think that the Brunson outcome didn't give us objective answers as to what the Mavs spending mindset really is.

I also am a big believer in the need for efficient contracts, getting value for the money. Wild overpays kill. They will be saddled with a monster number for Doncic for a long time. You MUST balance that somehow, unless you have another elite guy.

The risk-reward on Brunson being worth or outplaying his contract was solid when the number was 90 or so (like they seemed to think he was available for, and seemed willing to offer), but another 10M a year was a huge risk. But IMO they did a good job on Bullock, DFS, Franky, McGee, and the risk-reward on THJ was reasonable at the time. Maybe they've seen the light.

The real issue is whether they can develop players from raw stuff into high value. Having a pipeline of that is what enhances your ability to get the talent on the other end, because other teams will want your young cheap guys in trade. That's what they're missing. The anemic GL and 2-way results by this team, where it's just constant cycles of junk and no value emerges, are a major hindrance.

[Smitty]

I don't really disagree with any of this. I share your wariness on whether they will really spend what it takes -- but, I just think that the Brunson outcome didn't give us objective answers as to what the Mavs spending mindset really is.

I also am a big believer in the need for efficient contracts, getting value for the money. Wild overpays kill. They will be saddled with a monster number for Doncic for a long time. You MUST balance that somehow, unless you have another elite guy.

The risk-reward on Brunson being worth or outplaying his contract was solid when the number was 90 or so (like they seemed to think he was available for, and seemed willing to offer), but another 10M a year was a huge risk. But IMO they did a good job on Bullock, DFS, Franky, McGee, and the risk-reward on THJ was reasonable at the time. Maybe they've seen the light.

The real issue is whether they can develop players from raw stuff into high value. Having a pipeline of that is what enhances your ability to get the talent on the other end, because other teams will want your young cheap guys in trade. That's what they're missing. The anemic GL and 2-way results by this team, where it's just constant cycles of junk and no value emerges, are a major hindrance.

Sometimes I go off on a tangent and then I read reasonable posts like this and your previous and come back to a level head space. It’s easy to get worked up as a fan - one way or the other - on what we would do or what we think they should do. Bottom line is, we aren’t privy to their information and also have the benefit of hindsight.

I am a huge Brunson believer. It’s no secret. I think he is worth more than what Lowry signed last year and then some but that’s my opinion. The Mavs didn’t feel that way which for me is unfortunate but I can see the other side, as you’ve laid out, more clearly than I could before.

[StepBackJay]

Its sad that THJ was the guy they kept and JB is the guy they let go

[F Gump]

Its sad that THJ was the guy they kept and JB is the guy they let go

Hindsight is 20-20, isn't it?

A year ago, Brunson's ceiling was undersized, no-defense backup, with hopes he might one day become what JJB was, but wasn't really playoff caliber. And THJ was a full-sized SG with a good shot, who didn't shrink in the playoffs and might get even better, a shooter Luka needed to space the floor.

We'd all love to go back and reverse things last summer. What a great place they would be right now. Alas.

[cow]

And THJ was a full-sized SG with a good shot, who didn't shrink in the playoffs and might get even better, a shooter Luka needed to space the floor.

Eh, plenty of folks around here didn't want to resign THJ, at least no where near the contract he got.  He's not exactly a consistent player.  I still remember him hitting the side of the backboard on a corner three against the Clippers in the bubble.  THJ's biggest positive is that he's a great teammate and someone that wants to be in Dallas.  

The JB situation is a mess but I'm fine with the new MBT being pragmatic about their evaluation of him and having a do not exceed number for the contract.  The challenge becomes that we'll need to find ways to overpay or be creative to sign players (more years, options, incentives) as we aren't a destination.

[KillerLeft]

I guess the problem I have with just saying “aw, shucks” and moving on is that I believe BOTH Brunson and THJ were worth their current contracts. Stupidly, I allowed Cuban’s words to sway me into hoping he’d overspend in order to keep the team together, which, like the situation with the two Antoines back in the day, I felt was the best way to get better fitting talent of a certain quality (through trade) in this new, over-the-cap reality. 

With the hindsight we have now, I suppose signing Hardaway wasn’t the smartest move, but not because it was a bad deal for a bad player. And ironically, that deal is one of the team’s only lifelines right now, in the aftermath. Suddenly, he is extremely valuable both on the court and as a trade asset (one of their only ones).

[Smitty]

Eh, plenty of folks around here didn't want to resign THJ, at least no where near the contract he got.  He's not exactly a consistent player.  I still remember him hitting the side of the backboard on a corner three against the Clippers in the bubble.  THJ's biggest positive is that he's a great teammate and someone that wants to be in Dallas.  

The JB situation is a mess but I'm fine with the new MBT being pragmatic about their evaluation of him and having a do not exceed number for the contract.  The challenge becomes that we'll need to find ways to overpay or be creative to sign players (more years, options, incentives) as we aren't a destination.

THJ. I don’t think I’ve shared my opinion of him on this board. Without looking up data to support my stance, because it’s the 4th and I’ve had a few cold ones, anyone that says he’s overpaid in todays NBA market is being lazy. The guy was the only one that could score against the Clippers, aside from Luka, and by every single report imaginable is an amazing teammate, that wants to be a Mav (reportedly taking less money). If we think we can sign a FA to a better deal, that provides what he does, and wants to be here… prove your work!

[F Gump]

"The challenge becomes that we'll need to find ways to overpay or be creative to sign players (more years, options, incentives)"

I would hope for way better than this. You can't build a top team when everyone is on bloated deals. And I think more deals like DFS, Maxi, Bullock are possible to get, if you are disciplined. At the moment, we can also add Wood to that list, I think.

The real thing that has to happen is that they have to find a way to make the GL and 2-way platforms work to create young, bargain talent for them. The Mavs have been AWFUL at those levels, and that's where bargains can not only be found, but created.

[cow]

Without looking up data to support my stance, because it’s the 4th and I’ve had a few cold ones, anyone that says he’s overpaid in todays NBA market is being lazy.

I prefer having a different opinion but will happily accept the "lazy" label...as dumb as that is.

[Smitty]

I prefer having a different opinion but will happily accept the "lazy" label...as dumb as that is.

No disrespect intended. My words could have been chosen better.