Luxury Tax Hell

[Kammrath]

I´ll eat the remaining cartilage in Porzingis´ good knee, if that guy doesn´t have a very productive 12 year NBA career

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Mark Williams

He's who I have my eye on as well.

Nikola Jovic would be very on brand for us.

[Halfnir]

I would assume the off-season will go like this:

Draft day: 
- Shop the first to either push it to a later year or upgrade an existing player. If nothing can be done, make the pick.
FA:
- Try to resign Brunson
- Get some decent players for the exceptions 
Trade market:
- Try to trade out at least on of one of the big contracts of THJ, Bertans, Dinwiddie (later only if Brunson stays)
- Use Brown/Burke/Pinson in one of the deals, try to swap them against one slightly better player, or keep them.
- Keep DSF. Keep Bullock, Maxi, Green, FRP unless a very good trade is offered. Keep Powell because nobody wants him and he might re-sign a contract closer to his value at the end of the season
- Let Boban chill out his contract
- Re-sign Omoruyi if healthy (i still think he can be a DSF type of player)

[SatnamSingh]

They'll shop THJ and/or Dinwiddie as hard as they can.  Bertans is probably more immovable and can actually fit some kind of role here.

I would hope they've learned and not use their 1st rd pick to do it but not sure they have.

[KillerLeft]

They'll shop THJ and/or Dinwiddie as hard as they can. 

Probably both. 

I would hope they've learned and not use their 1st rd pick to do it but not sure they have.

I feel like it's almost a given that pick will be packaged with someone(s) for a player. More going out than in. Might be wishful thinking, but I feel like what comes back will be something we can think of as at least a marginal upgrade. In other words, not a "dump."

I think the Mavs are now back in the "baby steps" incremental upgrades over time business, just like back in the Dirk/Nash/Finley days.

[mvossman]

I feel like it's almost a given that pick will be packaged with someone(s) for a player. More going out than in. Might be wishful thinking, but I feel like what comes back will be something we can think of as at least a marginal upgrade. In other words, not a "dump."

I think the Mavs are now back in the "baby steps" incremental upgrades over time business, just like back in the Dirk/Nash/Finley days.

I like the idea of sending out THJ for Holmes, or something like that.  Not sure we would have to add the pick for that as Holmes is a distressed asset right now.  I don't think there is any way they can get off Bertans and THJ was not fitting anyways.  I'm still most interested in how Luka/Brunson/Din fit together.  We may need to use that pick to get off Din contract.

[F Gump]

This conversation about tax consequences is interesting and informative, but I think we are missing some perspective.

Maybe a month or three ago, I began to swim against the tide here on tax matters. Then, the prevailing wisdom was that the Mavs had to trade DFS, JB, or both, because of the tax consequences of signing both. But, I pointed out, the assumption that they couldn't keep them all was based on the belief that the tax line was an insurmountable barrier, and I felt that belief was short-sighted.

I think we all see things differently now. The only question we have now is, how much will it cost, and how will they keep from having to do it again.

While some assume that there will be a major push to either jettison most of the tax cost this season somehow, or to limit the tax to only one year, I wouldn't be so sure. I again wonder if we are being more worried about tax than they are.

I do think the FO will try to be smart(er) in their spending, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more salary-efficient moves made that aim to help the cost but don't sacrifice quality. So I think it more likely than not that they will prioritize roster quality over the tax amount - and more than that, I don't think there will be any real plan enacted to limit the tax to just one year.

What salary-efficient moves might be out there that can make the team better while perhaps slicing off a bit of the payroll cost for the road ahead? I think that's where they really are.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I don't think there will be any real plan enacted to limit the tax to just one year.

This is all very well said and the side of the camp that I fall on.  I have repeatedly said for a while that we've always just been under the assumption that Cuban will never pay the tax again without real proof.

Having said that, Cuban did mention that he'll be in luxury tax hell next year "but it's ok because things cool down after that" or something to that nature.  I think that's why a lot of folks are expecting this to kind of be "we're going to pay the tax to keep Brunson and then we need to find a different path to roster changes".

[F Gump]

This is all very well said and the side of the camp that I fall on and have repeated for a while that we've always just been under the assumption that Cuban will never pay the tax again.

Having said that, Cuban did mention that he'll be in luxury tax hell next year "but it's ok because things cool down after that" or something to that nature.  I think that's why a lot of folks are expecting this to kind of be "we're going to pay the tax to keep Brunson and then we need to find a different path to roster changes".

Cuban said: “We’re going to be in luxury tax hell next year, but that’s OK; it frees up the year after that." But let's see what happens, because it's easy to say "salaries expire" but ignore "of course, we either have to re-sign those players then, or pay someone else to replace them" -- which then can jump the salary total right back up again.

The trick will be in whether they can find good replacements that are just as good, but less costly. We know who they need to move (see Hardaway, Tim) but can they get back someone that's both more helpful and cheaper. I'm thinking it's not that easy, and ....

[Jason Terry]

It’s a 1 year thing because so much changes after next year. $32 million instantly comes off the books in dead money, DP, Maxi, Boban, Burke, Brown. All 7 of our 1st rd draft picks become available after the draft. Dinwiddie and Bullock become trade chips since they are expiring with $14 million not guaranteed between them. Green becomes a trade chip if he continues playing well. Jokic becomes a FA. 

The roster to build with:

Luka
DFS 
Brunson

Role players that play well with Luka
THj
Bertans
^ these are acceptable role playing shooters

This is a good core to add to or trade from. Some real flexibility opens up.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Cuban said: “We’re going to be in luxury tax hell next year, but that’s OK; it frees up the year after that." But let's see what happens, because it's easy to say "salaries expire" but ignore "of course, we either have to re-sign those players then, or pay someone else to replace them" -- which then can jump the salary total right back up again.

The trick will be in whether they can find good replacements that are just as good, but less costly. We know who they need to move (see Hardaway, Tim) but can they get back someone that's both more helpful and cheaper. I'm thinking it's not that easy, and ....

100%.  We always talk about Maxi as an expiring next year and then you watch games like last night and look at how we're playing defense in general this season and it's hard to imagine losing him and his replacement being better AND cheaper.

Hell, a lot of us on this board talk about how we need ANOTHER Maxi, not just an upgrade.  To your point, hard to see how we continue to get better while magically getting below the tax line at this point.

[Dirknows]

If Cuban won’t pay the Luxury Tax to keep Brunson or uses the pick to offload a contract it’s another wasted season. I’d be OK if he paired the pick with one of the contracts and got at least somewhat of an upgrade player wise. But straight up using the contract to dump the pick would be a real bummer.

[KillerLeft]

If Cuban won’t pay the Luxury Tax to keep Brunson or uses the pick to offload a contract it’s another wasted season. I’d be OK if he paired the pick with one of the contracts and got at least somewhat of an upgrade player wise. But straight up using the contract to dump the pick would be a real bummer.

Yeah, in addition to @"F Gump"'s good points about the tax and how we might all be more scared of it than the Mavs are, I think there's something being missed right now due all the (justifiable) shock and (somewhat justifiable) negativity about the trade:

With KP gone and the new guys here, the Mavs, while still not as talented as they want to be (obviously) are at least able to play the way they want to play. That's an easy to overlook development that I believe negates the need to "dump" anyone. They're not trying to go for cap space anytime soon, so unless there's a purely financial reason to dump someone (see our tax debate) then every deal from here should be drawn up with the intent of improving, in theory. 

That's not to say that it's going to be easy or anything, but it's not like they MUST trade anyone, at this point, especially if FGump's suggestion is true. I think they simply start looking for opportunities to combine these contracts together to go after incremental upgrades at different positions. And honestly, they are deep enough now (albeit deep with a talent level some around here don't like) for more of these guys to be expendable for the right return.

[dirkfansince1998]

In my opinion first round picks are the best cost controlled assets to get out of a difficult tax situation. Mavs need more production on reasonable contracts. Not just next season but looking at the next four years. It´s not possible to undo the trades or signings they made in the past. Using picks to dump bad salary cannot be the way.

[ItsGoTime]

In my opinion first round picks are the best cost controlled assets to get out of a difficult tax situation. Mavs need more production on reasonable contracts. Not just next season but looking at the next four years. It´s not possible to undo the trades or signings they made in the past. Using picks to dump bad salary cannot be the way.

Powell and Maxi on vet min contracts is a start.

[soog]

Out of curiosity - what do people think Powell and Maxi’s market value will be after their contracts expire a year from now?  I’m wrestling with the idea of Mavs keeping them both through next year then signing both to something like a 4yr $24M contract (give or take) for a backup front court rotation.

[KillerLeft]

Out of curiosity - what do people think Powell and Maxi’s market value will be after their contracts expire a year from now?  I’m wrestling with the idea of Mavs keeping them both through next year then signing both to something like a 4yr $24M contract (give or take) for a backup front court rotation.

My guess is that Powell gets less on his next deal and Kleber gets more. I haven't thought about it much though.

[Kammrath]

Powell gets less on his next deal and Kleber gets more

DP should definitely get less....he will be 32 when entering free agency and coming off $11.8M.

MK I would think would get less as well....he will be 31 entering free agency (assuming next year's $9M is guaranteed by the Mavs). It is hard for me to imagine someone paying a 31 and soon to be 32 year old MK more than $9M per year.

[KillerLeft]

DP should definitely get less....he will be 32 when entering free agency and coming off $11.8M.

MK I would think would get less as well....he will be 31 entering free agency (assuming next year's $9M is guaranteed by the Mavs). It is hard for me to imagine someone paying a 31 and soon to be 32 year old MK more than $9M per year.

Yeah, you might be right. 

It's tough to tell with him. Last night's Kleber is worth more and would be a sought after player. He hasn't been that player often enough lately (maybe he'll do better down the stretch this year). He'll get paid pretty handsomely just for being a big who can shoot a little, but maybe he's gettable for less than I think.

[dirkfansince1998]

Really depends on their durability. If the Mavs think that they can give them another 3-4 years on a similar level I wouldn´t be suprised if they get similar contracts. As @"KillerLeft" mentioned. Maybe a little bit more for Kleber. Less for Powell.
Question is if the Mavs trust them to do that. Both are on the wrong side of 30. Powell already had a potentially career ending injury but recovered better than anyone could have expected. Kleber is dealing with nagging injury issues all the time.
On the other hand. Looking at the milage compared to players of similar age they should have something left in the tank. Favors for example is just a few days older than Powell but played more than 10000 additional regular season minutes. More minutes than Kleber + Powell combined.