TRADE: Dinwiddie + Bertans to DAL | KP + 2nd to WAS

[nielyn]

I actually agree with this mindset. Boban's value in the lockerroom and general fan engagement is more than worth his contract and roster spot. Plus it helps he can actually score a bit when he gets in the game. Perfect 15th guy imo. 

That seems like a good point. There was a game recently where Kidd unexpectedly put Boban in for 2 or 3 minutes and then took him out for good. But the crowd went wild, and the Mavs picked up their energy after that. During the COVID empty stadiums, some of the NBA players were saying that they normally draw their energy from the fans. If Boban can gin up some fan energy on a night where it's lacking, that's probably a good "secret weapon."



I know those Cato comments on Dragic are a couple of days old by now, but I can't get over the main reason why Dragic wants to come here is to play with Luka. He said as such himself. That hasn't changed. And I still think there's a valid role for him on the team anyways.

As I remember it, Dragic said he would like to play with Luka professionally before he retires. In an interview with their fellow Slovenian, Iztok, within the last few days, Iztok said that he thinks Goran chose his words poorly. Dragic was making the remarks to some Slovenian reporters, and Iztok thinks Goran might have raised expectations that he hadn't really meant to. 

Just passing along another tidbit of information. 

[KillerLeft]

I actually agree with this mindset. Boban's value in the lockerroom and general fan engagement is more than worth his contract and roster spot. Plus it helps he can actually score a bit when he gets in the game. Perfect 15th guy imo.

So, I get this thinking, and there's validity to it. On the other hand, it's not that much different that the thinking that led to using a pick on @"SatnamSingh". Just saying. He wasn't an NBA player, but Cuban thought he'd be popular, bring in loads of fans from India and sell lots of t-shirts. Nowadays he just posts here.

[SatnamSingh]

You rang? 

Nice win last night.

Initial thoughts are the same after one game.  I agree(d) Bertans can contribute here but that doesnt really change my point.  His value was still in the dumpster at the time of the deal.  Still, if the trade was Bertans and expirings for KP, I would have been cool with it.  

I feel like we should have been compensated for taking BOTH him and Dinwiddie.

SD has the second half of the season to do something and I'll gladly admit to being wrong.

[SleepingHero]

So, I get this thinking, and there's validity to it. On the other hand, it's not that much different that the thinking that led to using a pick on @SatnamSingh. Just saying. He wasn't an NBA player, but Cuban thought he'd be popular, bring in loads of fans from India and sell lots of t-shirts. Nowadays he just posts here.

I don't view using a 52nd pick on some marketing ploy as a waste. How many players have had a career longer than 3 years that were picked between 50-60 in the last 20 years? In fact I'll make the cutoffs 100 games and/or 3 years in the league, which is as generous as I can make it. 

Here's the list of guys that meet that requirement that were picked between 50-60 from 1999-2019:
1999: Rodney Buford, Manu Ginobli 
2000: Kaniel Dickens
2001: Ruben Boumtjue-Bountjie, Alton Ford, Jarron Collins
2002: Darius Songaila, Rasual Butler, Tamar Slay, Luis Scola (who didn't come play till 5 years after getting picked)
2003: Kyle Korver
2004: -----
2005: Ryan Gomes, Orien Greene, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat (who didn't come play till 2 years after getting picked)
2006: Ryan Hollins
2007: Ramon Sessions
2008: Darnell Jackson
2009: AJ Price, Nando De Colo, Patty Mills, Lester Hudson 
2010: Jeremy Evans, Hamady N'Daive
2011: Lavoy Allen, Deandre Liggins, Etwaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas
2012: Robert Sacre
2013: James Ennis III, Lorenzo Brown, Joffrey Lauvergne 
2014: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Jordan McRae
2015: -------
2016: Abdel Nader, Tyrone Wallace
2017: Monte Morris, Kadeem Allen
2018: Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kostas Antentokounmpo
2019: Jalen McDaniels, Tremont Waters, Kyle Guy, Miye Oni

I know this is a wall of text, but I actually sat down for 30 minutes compiling all of this. But the point being, out of 200 possible players, only 45 ever met this generous cutoff. Of those 45, only 7 are guys I'd deem as to ever have contributed anything meaningful for their teams. Of those 7, 3 were ever all-stars. And of those 3, only 1 was really a game changer.  If we want an actual rotation player, then its a 3.5% chance of ever getting one (in reality it's much lower because of the generous cut-off). 

And in 2015, where Satnam was picked, Cuban must've surveyed the field and accurately predicted that there aren't really any guys worth a roster spot. 

This was a deep dive that took way too much time. But my overall point in this is that late 2nd rounders are the biggest gambles there are. And no one should really care too much over them (not saying you were). It's why I've cooled a lot on the KP trade where the Mavs sent a second because its protected 31-45 and if it isn't conveyed then the Mavs keep it.

[ItsGoTime]

SD has the second half of the season to do something and I'll gladly admit to being wrong.

How SD plays here has nothing to do with what his value was when he was traded. OKC has made a KILLING on that principle.

[KillerLeft]

I don't view using a 52nd pick on some marketing ploy as a waste.

Fair enough. I can respect the consistency of your takes on these topics. 

Both the Singh pick and the use of a roster spot on Boban drive me bonkers.

[Mavs2021]

I don't view using a 52nd pick on some marketing ploy as a waste. How many players have had a career longer than 3 years that were picked between 50-60 in the last 20 years? In fact I'll make the cutoffs 100 games and/or 3 years in the league, which is as generous as I can make it. 

Here's the list of guys that meet that requirement that were picked between 50-60 from 1999-2019:
1999: Rodney Buford, Manu Ginobli 
2000: Kaniel Dickens
2001: Ruben Boumtjue-Bountjie, Alton Ford, Jarron Collins
2002: Darius Songaila, Rasual Butler, Tamar Slay, Luis Scola (who didn't come play till 5 years after getting picked)
2003: Kyle Korver
2004: -----
2005: Ryan Gomes, Orien Greene, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat (who didn't come play till 2 years after getting picked)
2006: Ryan Hollins
2007: Ramon Sessions
2008: Darnell Jackson
2009: AJ Price, Nando De Colo, Patty Mills, Lester Hudson 
2010: Jeremy Evans, Hamady N'Daive
2011: Lavoy Allen, Deandre Liggins, Etwaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas
2012: Robert Sacre
2013: James Ennis III, Lorenzo Brown, Joffrey Lauvergne 
2014: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Jordan McRae
2015: -------
2016: Abdel Nader, Tyrone Wallace
2017: Monte Morris, Kadeem Allen
2018: Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kostas Antentokounmpo
2019: Jalen McDaniels, Tremont Waters, Kyle Guy, Miye Oni

I know this is a wall of text, but I actually sat down for 30 minutes compiling all of this. But the point being, out of 200 possible players, only 45 ever met this generous cutoff. Of those 45, only 7 are guys I'd deem as to ever have contributed anything meaningful for their teams. Of those 7, 3 were ever all-stars. And of those 3, only 1 was really a game changer.  If we want an actual rotation player, then its a 3.5% chance of ever getting one (in reality it's much lower because of the generous cut-off). 

And in 2015, where Satnam was picked, Cuban must've surveyed the field and accurately predicted that there aren't really any guys worth a roster spot. 

This was a deep dive that took way too much time. But my overall point in this is that late 2nd rounders are the biggest gambles there are. And no one should really care too much over them (not saying you were). It's why I've cooled a lot on the KP trade where the Mavs sent a second because its protected 31-45 and if it isn't conveyed then the Mavs keep it.

It does not matter whether the probability to find a guy is low. If you don´t play the probability is zero. Picking Satnam is not playing.

Also it´s a little disingenuous to not mention the undrafted players of the 2015 class, which included Christian Wood, Juan Toscano-Anderson and TJ McConnell. Furthermore it would certainly have been possible with the investment of maybe one future 2nd round pick + cash to move up to pick #40 Josh Richardson, #41 Pat Connaughton, #46 Norman Powell.

But we have been over this a million times. You make bad small decisions, you make bad big decisions. The size of the pot, doesn´t matter.

[SleepingHero]

It does not matter whether the probability to find a guy is low. If you don´t play the probability is zero. Picking Satnam is not playing.

Also it´s a little disingenuous to not mention the undrafted players of the 2015 class, which included Christian Wood, Juan Toscano-Anderson and TJ McConnell. Furthermore it would certainly have been possible with the investment of maybe one future 2nd round pick + cash to move up to pick #40 Josh Richardson, #41 Pat Connaughton, #46 Norman Powell.

But we have been over this a million times. You make bad small decisions, you make bad big decisions. The size of the pot, doesn´t matter.

That's a fair critique. The Mavs have never been good at drafting. I just think when you get to the last 10 picks of the draft, the amount of variance there makes it almost unrealistic to expect continued success. 

But to your point undrafted players have been a strong suit for the Mavs. DFS, Maxi, Barea, and many others have succeeded here. So I'll give them credit there. 

At the end of the day, the objective is to get the best talent, and the last 10 picks historically has never been the place to do it. Now from 31-45 that's a different story.

[Chicagojk]

I don't view using a 52nd pick on some marketing ploy as a waste. How many players have had a career longer than 3 years that were picked between 50-60 in the last 20 years? In fact I'll make the cutoffs 100 games and/or 3 years in the league, which is as generous as I can make it. 

Here's the list of guys that meet that requirement that were picked between 50-60 from 1999-2019:
1999: Rodney Buford, Manu Ginobli 
2000: Kaniel Dickens
2001: Ruben Boumtjue-Bountjie, Alton Ford, Jarron Collins
2002: Darius Songaila, Rasual Butler, Tamar Slay, Luis Scola (who didn't come play till 5 years after getting picked)
2003: Kyle Korver
2004: -----
2005: Ryan Gomes, Orien Greene, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat (who didn't come play till 2 years after getting picked)
2006: Ryan Hollins
2007: Ramon Sessions
2008: Darnell Jackson
2009: AJ Price, Nando De Colo, Patty Mills, Lester Hudson 
2010: Jeremy Evans, Hamady N'Daive
2011: Lavoy Allen, Deandre Liggins, Etwaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas
2012: Robert Sacre
2013: James Ennis III, Lorenzo Brown, Joffrey Lauvergne 
2014: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Jordan McRae
2015: -------
2016: Abdel Nader, Tyrone Wallace
2017: Monte Morris, Kadeem Allen
2018: Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kostas Antentokounmpo
2019: Jalen McDaniels, Tremont Waters, Kyle Guy, Miye Oni

I know this is a wall of text, but I actually sat down for 30 minutes compiling all of this. But the point being, out of 200 possible players, only 45 ever met this generous cutoff. Of those 45, only 7 are guys I'd deem as to ever have contributed anything meaningful for their teams. Of those 7, 3 were ever all-stars. And of those 3, only 1 was really a game changer.  If we want an actual rotation player, then its a 3.5% chance of ever getting one (in reality it's much lower because of the generous cut-off). 

And in 2015, where Satnam was picked, Cuban must've surveyed the field and accurately predicted that there aren't really any guys worth a roster spot. 

This was a deep dive that took way too much time. But my overall point in this is that late 2nd rounders are the biggest gambles there are. And no one should really care too much over them (not saying you were). It's why I've cooled a lot on the KP trade where the Mavs sent a second because its protected 31-45 and if it isn't conveyed then the Mavs keep it.

I appreciate the work, but I disagree.   My mantra every year is no matter where you pick, there is going to be an eventual good player available.  The later you pick, the less there will be.  But it is my GM's job to find them.  Especially in a league when finding a Manu Ginoboli may be the difference between a championship or 3 championships.   In that same draft TJ McConnell, Royce O'neal, and Christian Wood went undrafted.   These guys bounced around before finding a home, but there were players available when Dallas picked a gimmick.  This is same with NBA two way guys.  Most will never make the NBA, but the more smart decisions you make the more likely you eventually find a DFS or JJ Barea.   You should never stop looking under every rock for future NBA talent.

[KillerLeft]

With a late 2nd, my thinking is:

Finding a diamond in the rough > including it in a trade package that defers for a later date or helps the team immediately >>>>>>>>> drafting a marketing bit like Satnam Singh.

[cow]

With a late 2nd, my thinking is:

Finding a diamond in the rough > including it in a trade package that defers for a later date or helps the team immediately >>>>>>>>> drafting a marketing bit like Satnam Singh.

I wanted this guy:  https://twitter.com/DXContent/status/147...9461071882

[vfromlmf]

Trey Burke has 7 total assists in the 14 games he's appeared in since December 21.

Frank Ntilikina has 14 assists in 21 games since January 1

Spencer Dinwiddie had 5 assists in 23 minutes of his first game.

[SleepingHero]

Trey Burke has 7 total assists in the 14 games he's appeared in since December 21.

Frank Ntilikina has 14 assists in 21 games since January 1

Spencer Dinwiddie had 5 assists in 23 minutes of his first game.

Seems like they're using both Burke+Frank as off ball scorers, not offensive initiators. I believe both Burke+Frank's minutes come primarily with Brunson on the floor. 

I don't think that's the best role for Frank, but he's shown growth in his ability to score this season. Burke also has surprised me at times. Yet I'd still choose Dragic over both of them to fulfill that role.

[Chicagojk]

https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2022/02...wild-card/

[mvossman]

https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2022/02...wild-card/

Great article.  I was curious to see who wrote it, should have realized it was Iztok.  Probably the best Mavs analyst/writer out there.

[KillerLeft]

Great article.  I was curious to see who wrote it, should have realized it was Iztok.  Probably the best Mavs analyst/writer out there.

Agreed. Wonderful explanation of the challenges faced by everyone they have tried and will try next to Luka.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Don’t know if this was posted elsewhere, but Nico did an interview on the most recent Mavs Step Back Podcast.  This isn’t one I typically listen to, but all of the Fish related content pops up on my FB page and the Nico interview drew me in.

Says a lot of the same old stuff.  I’m struck by how straightforward and sincere he seems.

1.  Opportunity to get two players instead of one.
2.  Needed more depth and these two players happen to fill positions of need
3.  Added flexibility both on court now and financially in the future.

Probably the most interesting thing to me was his answer to the question about getting that often discussed “second star” next to Luka.  He said they don’t have a person or even a position in mind at this point.  Flexible means being in a better position to get aggressive should the opportunity present itself.  Positionally, if said player is truly a “second star”, positions don’t really matter.  The two stars will figure it out and a team will be built around them.  My expectation is we will probably be sniffing around every unhappy star that comes on the market.  Maybe not feaux stars who put up artificially high (and inefficient) numbers on bad teams.  But true stars.  

On the 77 Minutes podcast yesterday, Tim Cato also commented on how much of a straight shooter Nico is.  He said if Nico says we aren’t going for players on the buyout market, then he’s not trying to fake anyone out.  He’s being sincere in the moment.  If they were trying to get someone, he’d answer differently.  I think that is where the opportunity lies as fans.  We can listen closely (at least until Nico learns how to better give non-answer answers) and when he’s not forthcoming it might mean there is a need to delve deeper into what was asked.

[Kammrath]

He said they don’t have a person or even a position in mind at this point.  Flexible means being in a better position to get aggressive should the opportunity present itself.  Positionally, if said player is truly a “second star”, positions don’t really matter.  The two stars will figure it out and a team will be built around them.

LOVE this.

[Kammrath]

TRADE VERDICT:

I have seen enough to love this trade for the Mavs. DB and SD aren't even playing really well yet in these first 2 games or understanding the systems fully, but I would take those two guys over KP all day, every day. 

Well done, Nico, well done.

[Jommybone]

Davis Bertans 4/14 (28.6%) from 3 after 2 games.