2021-2022 DAL Wins Prediction | Vegas Line: 48.5

[ReunionMav]

Well put 15th. I agree. 
I voted 53-54. Winning 57 requires averaging 7-3 for all 8 10 game sets.  To do that we will need some good winning steaks. Having at most one 5-5 ten game set helps as well.

[fifteenth]

I agree, 55 was my pick. 

I was pretty discouraged about Rick leaving, but I've been happy with what little I've seen and heard of Nico and the tone he seems to be setting with the organization. He had me when he talked about servant leadership and from reports so far, it seems like it wasn't just talk. And Kidd seems to be not only on board with Nico's leadership style, but practicing it. I'm a Rick homer, but I have to admit, JKidd has been refreshing (I'd like to start a whole conversation about this at some point). 

And most importantly, pursuant to a win total, the team seems to be energized and inspired by all of this. 

These are "predictions" for a reason. Disaster could strike at any moment. But I see reason for hope. And against the tenets of internet culture, I like hope, especially when there is evidence to support it, and I don't find pessimism to be the the smarter approach by default. 

Support for hope and for 55 wins:

• The key Mavs who have been here for a few years have won at a 55 win clip before, when they've been healthy and together. 
  
• JKidd's approach seems to be energizing and inspiring the team.
  
• JKidd's offensive scheme and tutelage of Luka could result in better play and more prodcution from the non-Lukas. (RC's strict roles leading efficiency, and JKidd's free-er system leading to  _______, is a conversation we should have. The season and playoffs will have to prove this one out). 
  
• The pre-season seems to have confirmed the idea that this could be the healthiest KP we've seen.
  
• Our bench/supporting cast is much better than our other teams that have won at a 55 win clip.
  
• Luka now should be better than Luka past.
  
• I think Brunson is on the verge of taking a good sized year 4 leap forward. 
  
• There are signs of an improved defensive scheme (which must be confirmed in real games, of course)
  

The argument that seems to support less wins is based on "this is the same team and JKidd sucks". And I think there is evidence that suggests that it's not the same team and JKidd might be doing just fine. We'll see.

The teacher told me to write this a thousand times

I don't know anything about basketball
I don't know anything about basketball
I don't know anything about basketball
I don't know anything about basketball
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[cow]

40 or less* is looking better and better.  

[SleepingHero]

We were competitive for most of the game and missing our 2 best front court players. I'm not going to overreact. 

#Istillbelievein50

[fifteenth]

We were competitive for most of the game and missing our 2 best front court players. I'm not going to overreact. 

#Istillbelievein50

Fair enough. But my 55 looks like crazy talk

[khaled1987]

I was at 45-46 wins, was the least win total vote at that time
Don't think it is bad

[ClutchDirk]

My prediction looks to be a bad choice so far...maybe things can and will change...

[ClutchDirk]

Prediction is now looking much better at 57 wins...

[Kammrath]

Mavs need to go 4-2 or 5-1 down the stretch for my 51-52 win guess to be right. 

3-3 or 2-4 for the 49-50 win crowd to be right. 

Those seem like the only LIKELY outcomes left on the board.....

[Kammrath]

And let's make sure we highlight that @"cow" predicted 40 or LESS wins....

[fifteenth]

55

homer

[ReunionMav]

Mavs need to go 4-2 or 5-1 down the stretch for my 51-52 win guess to be right. 

3-3 or 2-4 for the 49-50 win crowd to be right. 

Those seem like the only LIKELY outcomes left on the board.....

I still want my very unlikely 53 win pace to come true. Actually I am amazed that 50 plus is likely given we were once 16-18!

[Hypermav]

51-52 apparently but I have no recollection of voting.

[ThisIStheYear]

Looks like the collective wisdom is right again. I was optimistic, 55 wins. But, the Mavs are a 55 win team now.

[Mavsfan12]

Looks like the collective wisdom is right again. I was optimistic, 55 wins. But, the Mavs are a 55 win team now.

They are much better than a 55 win team now.  They are 32-11 since starting a putrid 16-18, which included so many injuries and Covid issues that we were seeing a G-league team out there on a lot of nights.  This team has been on a 61 win pace since Dec 31 and that is what this team is.  One of the best teams in the league.  Your Dallas Mavs.  Enjoy the ride.

[ItsGoTime]

They are much better than a 55 win team now.  They are 32-11 since starting a putrid 16-18, which included so many injuries and Covid issues that we were seeing a G-league team out there on a lot of nights.  This team has been on a 61 win pace since Dec 31 and that is what this team is.  One of the best teams in the league.  Your Dallas Mavs.  Enjoy the ride.

I have to admit, I’ve been guarding myself for what I thought would be an inevitable let down on that pace. To their credit, it has not happened. Still believe we won’t see the second round, but will hope I’m wrong with the rest of you.

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JB, SD and DFS large steps up throughout the year is getting my hopes up though.

[KillerLeft]

Still believe we won’t see the second round

I really think you're in for a pleasant surprise, my guy.

The Clippers weren't a "first round team" these past two years. Even now, with only Paul George, I'm almost as worried about them as I am PHX. I think they're a GREAT team. I think those two series have helped quite a bit. 

Last year's uninspired, non-defending Mavs took them to 7, despite LAC being possibly the worst matchup in the West for them. IMO, Carlisle really messed up by panicking and changing course in that series (lol, Boban) rather than doubling down on what got them that 2-0 lead. 

If you don't think this season's team is better, you haven't been paying attention. Every time I think they're out of a game, they find a new gear I didn't previously realize was available to them. 

I won't be shocked if they lose in the first round, don't get me wrong. But, I feel like they're going to be favored. Home court advantage, etc. For the first time in a looooooong time, these playoffs leave the door open just a crack for our Mavs.

---

JB, SD and DFS large steps up throughout the year is getting my hopes up though.

Yes! And Powell! And Kleber! And Bullock! And Green!

[michaeltex]

IMO, Carlisle really messed up by panicking and changing course in that series (lol, Boban) rather than doubling down on what got them that 2-0 lead. 

I think you are correct. Almost zero contribution from KP (after the 2-0 lead), JRich, Melli and Brunson, which added up to significant minutes, lost momentum and provided areas for LACs to attack. Add in THJ forgetting how to shoot, and it becomes a tribute to Luka's brilliance that the series went to 7 games.


I'm thinking Reggie and SD are better contributors on both ends. Brunson seems to get less shell-shocked if he gets guarded tight. You don't have one disgruntled big sitting in the corner not contributing much. And the team seems to play together better and with more confidence than at any point prior to 2/10/22.

[loki]

I thought the Mavs would win a few games less than last year at best, but I wasn't expecting a KP trade. That throws a wrench into a lot of projections.

[ItsGoTime]

Yes! And Powell! And Kleber! And Bullock! And Green!

I don't think I've seen Kleber take a large step forward this year (if he's even taken a step forward at all). Don't think of what we thought we were getting in Bullock and what we are seeing with him is a large step forward either. I thought of Powell after I posted and he is a step forward to me, not really a large step forward (he still does mostly what he did last year, he's just gained a bit more athleticism since the injury return). I totally spaced on Green.