Why the Mavs are Potentially Much Better Already...

[Kammrath]

I think two charts might explain:

1) The priority for Nico this offseason.

2) Why there is hope that the Mavs are already much better even with seemingly little movement. 





In this first chart you see that DAL was -0.2 in the 1760 minutes that Josh Richardson played this year. That would rank the Mavs 18th in the NBA in net rating. You also see that DAL was +6.1 in the 1671 minutes JR didn't play. That would rank the Mavs 2nd in the whole NBA, only behind UTA (and virtually tied with LAC). JR's -6.3 on/off was the worst on the Mavs last year, by far.





In this second chart you see how Luka and the Mavs were +7.6 when there was no JR on the court and then +0.3 when JR was with Luka on the court.


The Mavs were an ELITE level team, destroying their opponents when JR was not playing last year. When JR played the Mavs essentially performed like a non-playoff team. Also, Luka's impact on the game was massively better when JR was not with him on the court (the team was much better offensively AND defensively in that scenario). 


It would not surprise me if Nico and the analytics team saw these kind of numbers and realized that the single biggest off season move needed to be upgrading JR. The fact of the matter is that all of their moves to this point (other than getting back their own players: WCS, THJ, Boban) were centered on this goal: upgrading JR. They traded JR for a TPE and then they went out and signed TWO replacement players: Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown. 


So are Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown actual upgrades to JR? Well only time will tell, but the numbers are very promising. 

Reggie Bullock was a go-to defender on one of the four elite defenses last year in NYK, often taking the hardest matchup on the court. The Knicks were 1.1 pts better defensively without Bullock, but when you take into account matchups with a stat like DRPM, he was +3.74 defensively (good for 7th best in the whole NBA...!). He also was elite in defending the perimeter, allowing only 30% shooting from outside from the guys he defended (JR allowed 40% shooting from outside). Bullock was also +1.4 offensively for the Knicks, shooting 41% from three (42.5% on catch and shoot). JR on the other hand shot 33% from three (32.5% on catch and shoot). 

Sterling Brown also shows great promise on both ends in a more limited sample size. He shot 42.2% from three (41.4% on catch and shoot and an astonishing 46.9% on pull-up threes). The Rockets were also +4.0 defensively when Sterling played. Sterling is younger than Bullock and shows a lot of promise as an emerging 3&D player in this league.


I believe Nico went into this offseason with one goal that HAD to be accomplished above all others: address the team's biggest weakness last year by upgrading JR. I think Nico quickly accomplished that. 

Is that enough? No. But it is a hell of a start. Fixing KP's impact is the next objective (whether through trade, scheme, coaching, mental therapy, etc) as well as getting Luka a better pick and roll partner (could that be KP with a new coach and scheme?) and a secondary ball-handler/creator (is Dragic the short term answer here?). I really like Nico's start as GM, even if it looks underwhelming on the surface. It may not be flashy, but it is getting to the core of what ailed this team last year.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Great stuff.  Not much to add.  One thing that is kind of amazing is JRich was part of the most used 5 man lineup and that was +12.2.  So, he was REALLY bad outside the safe confines of that five man group.  Addition by subtraction is a thing and when teams are so close to one another minor improvements are important.

Brown was unassisted on 45% of his made two pointers…very similar to THJ.  If you watch highlights, Brown gets to the rim fairly well (on a bad offensive team).  He is definitely not a creator for others, but can do things for himself.  His TS% is almost .600 (again on a bad team) and his 2% is .492 (a good number, but THJ beats him nicely here).  I’m all for Dragic, but it won’t crush me if he doesn’t come here as I think Brown and Sterling can be respectable together spearheading the second unit.  I assume either Willie or Powell plus Maxi will also be on the bench unit.  I’d kind of like another guy who can create a shot.  My preference might be more of a 3 than another guard. Maybe Green gets some burn in that spot.  Or, maybe we hold onto the TPE and use it to trade of facilitate a trade at the TDL.

[DrMav]

Good stuff. Optimistic take would be that with nothing else, we’re at least a 2nd round team. If we get anything extra out of KP this year and/or add a secondary creator, maybe more.

[Jmaciscool]

Great points, thanks for sharing!

[cow]

I'm not trying to defend Josh Richardson because I hated that trade from moment one and I do think Bullock will be an upgrade in at least his shooting, if not his defense.  But one perimeter player isn't going to impact the defense on this team.  Wright didn't do it and neither did Richardson.  I just don't want to put that same expectation on Bullock, especially when we didn't have great interior presences to funnel offensive players into.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So are Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown actual upgrades to JR? Well only time will tell, but the numbers are very promising. 

Reggie Bullock was a go-to defender on one of the four elite defenses last year in NYK, often taking the hardest matchup on the court. The Knicks were 1.1 pts better defensively without Bullock, but when you take into account matchups with a stat like DRPM, he was +3.74 defensively (good for 7th best in the whole NBA...!). He also was elite in defending the perimeter, allowing only 30% shooting from outside from the guys he defended.  Bullock was also +1.4 offensively for the Knicks, shooting 41% from three (42.5% on catch and shoot).  

Would you mind running a Bullock chart with and without E. Payton?  Thanks

---

I'm not trying to defend Josh Richardson because I hated that trade from moment one and I do think Bullock will be an upgrade in at least his shooting, if not his defense.  But one perimeter player isn't going to impact the defense on this team.  Wright didn't do it and neither did Richardson.  I just don't want to put that same expectation on Bullock, especially when we didn't have great interior presences to funnel offensive players into.

It is encouraging to have two guys now (RB and DFS) who can take the other team's most difficult offensive assignment.

[Kammrath]

Would you mind running a Bullock chart with and without E. Payton?  Thanks

Holy crap. Great find @"DanSchwartzgan"....this makes me feel REALLY, REALLY good about this signing.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Holy crap. Great find @"DanSchwartzgan"....this makes me feel REALLY, REALLY good about this signing.

I pointed this out the other day from looking at lineup data.  But, I don't have the fancy schmancy software you have (nor could I post it even if I did  ).  Payton really crushed them.  RB is a sneaky good signing...unless we sign Payton.

[cow]

It is encouraging to have two guys now (RB and DFS) who can take the other team's most difficult offensive assignment.

Fully agree.  It is more about expectation management.  I'm not saying JRich was great in his time here or anything but we love having a whipping boy and he quickly fell into that role.  haha

[Jmaciscool]

Holy crap. Great find @"DanSchwartzgan"....this makes me feel REALLY, REALLY good about this signing.

Very interesting (and promising).

Definitely like the signing (and even more so now).  This is the kind of player that we used to miss out on as a cost of waiting on big fish.

Maybe this will turn out to be our jae crowder to Suns impact type of move.

[dirkfansince1998]

Fixing KP's impact is the next objective (whether through trade, scheme, coaching, mental therapy, etc) as well as getting Luka a better pick and roll partner (could that be KP with a new coach and scheme?) and a secondary ball-handler/creator (is Dragic the short term answer here?).

That´s the elephant in the room. KP being in Dallas or not. Improving or declining will determine how far this team can go.

[KillerLeft]

That´s the elephant in the room. KP being in Dallas or not. Improving or declining will determine how far this team can go.

[cow]

[KillerLeft]

@"Kammrath" this is a great thread. Great stuff, and I think you're absolutely correct about the thesis. 

I'm happy as a clam that Richardson is gone as I'm sure you know. And, I'm happy to have added some 3&D guys who actually shoot 3's and play D. About the best ones available this summer, imo, if we're being honest. I really think that's going to be a nice deodorant in a lot of areas, and I absolutely think they (along with retained THJ) were moves made with "playing well off of Luka" in mind. Zero complaints. 

But, I also think you really believe that the Morey/Harden Houston model will work better with Luka than it did for them, and I just don't.

I feel pretty strongly that over the course of the season and especially in the playoffs, multiple sources of creation, hopefully having played together enough to form a really synergetic play style, are an absolute necessity. I don't have any cool charts or graphs to post that prove it, but that is what I take away from the playoffs every single year. 

[ItsGoTime]

That´s the elephant in the room. KP being in Dallas or not. Improving or declining will determine how far this team can go.

I am pretty dang optimistic about this, at least in the beginning of the year and up until his inevitable injury. I’m not so sure about the meshing with Luka, but that first year I remember a lot more attempts to make KP the focal point when Luka was on the bench. Even if KP and Luka don’t figure s 2 man game out, this could easily be a big part of his improvement on the offensive side, and ultimately on the defensive side too.

[Jym]

And hopefully we don't have multiple weeks this time where half the rotation players are in quarantine
That was the deciding factor in homecourt or not

[Kammrath]

I also think you really believe that the Morey/Harden Houston model will work better with Luka than it did for them, and I just don't.

I do think a Luka-centric offense WILL work (see Slovenia as an example of what I am referring to), however the Harden Rockets are not my ideal.

The last two years of Harden's Rockets he averaged 35 pts, 7.5 asts. In BRK he was 24 pts, 11 asts (much closer to what I would want from Luka). My ideal for Luka is something like 21-25 pts, 11-14 asts.

[ItsGoTime]

My ideal for Luka is something like 21-25 pts, 11-14 asts.

I really think this is who he is as a player. However, we do need to get his usage rate down snd the only way to do that is to get more ball handlers (distributors or create for themselves, either way).

[SkenfromLMF]

I think the other way to level out usage rate is to reduce his minutes. We need the return of the bench that punished opposing teams.

I'd like to think that KP and Brunson lead this charge with 2 of the wings and either Maxi or DP.

As I analyze it though...

Crap you realize we are depending heavily on 3 ex-Knicks to perform or we are screwed.

[Branduil]

I do think a Luka-centric offense WILL work (see Slovenia as an example of what I am referring to), however the Harden Rockets are not my ideal.

The last two years of Harden's Rockets he averaged 35 pts, 7.5 asts. In BRK he was 24 pts, 11 asts (much closer to what I would want from Luka). My ideal for Luka is something like 21-25 pts, 11-14 asts.

I really don't see much point in trying to pigeonhole what Luka's stats "should" be.


If Luka ever actually gets to play next to a REAL superstar, I could actually see his points(and efficiency) going up, simply because teams would be forced to guard him honestly instead of doubling constantly. It's counter-intuitive but I really think he might score MORE next to a real star.