2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[ItsGoTime]

Having 2 mascots really makes the numbers hard.

Literally one of the reasons I stated we don't need Burke. 

A best use 3rd string and 4th PG on the team is a luxury we don't really have if we're trying to keep a pipeline of development and stay competitive. Especially when our team is handicapping the count by 2.

[Branduil]

Literally one of the reasons I stated we don't need Burke. 

A best use 3rd string and 4th PG on the team is a luxury we don't really have if we're trying to keep a pipeline of development and stay competitive. Especially when our team is handicapping the count by 2.

Burke isn't really a mascot if he plays when we have an injury. A mascot is a guy who only ever plays in garbage time.

[ItsGoTime]

Burke isn't really a mascot if he plays when we have an injury. A mascot is a guy who only ever plays in garbage time.

Never stated he was, the mascots are Pinson and Boban.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Maxi is arguably his most effective as a small ball 5.  If we are keeping Powell and Maxi, I would argue we only need one more center (preferably a starter) and potentially another 4.

I think you raise an interesting question here.  Are we better with DFS at the four or the three?  I’d love to see some post-KP positional splits for DFS.  At a very basic level, B-Ref says Finney’s D-Rating was much worse post all-star.  By then KP was gone and Dorian was exclusively a four.  If you move DFS back to the three, you are probably having Bullock come off the bench.  I’m fine with that if you’ve added some defense to the front line.

To talk this through, I’ll go back to my original Holmes idea which was THJ.  Sacramento is trying to win and a salary dump or some Dallas youth doesn’t help with that goal.  You mention adding a starting center (Holmes) AND another PF.  I’ll use Jalen Smith for the TP-MLE as an example.  It just makes too much sense that he ends up here since Indy can’t match our TP-MLE offer.   So, now you have some combo of Maxi, Smith and Holmes at the 4/5 with Powell getting some minutes when Luka is playing with bench guys.  Maxi, Smith and Holmes are all decent shot blockers and two of those guys can hit 3’s and Homes has his highly effective push shot in the lane.  I don’t think you’ve clogged the lane and even if you have, Maxi and Smith are decent spacers and you can always push DFS back to the four as a specialty lineup.

A deal for Holmes may or may not require picks.  Sacramento has a $4mm TPE that can help with the body count.  Say THJ/Brown/Chriss for Holmes/Holiday.  The savings is enough to use the TP-MLE without changing the budget.  You end up with one too many players plus your pick (which can always be a Euro-stash).  What I like is you’ve added two bigs for essentially someone who didn’t play in the playoff run and you’ve solved the issue of your incumbent bigs being older FA’s a year from now.

Holmes/Powell   (Boban)
Maxi/J. Smith    (Bertans)
DFS/Bullock      (Frank/Holiday)
Brunson/Green  (Pinson)
Luka/Dinwiddie  (Burke)

[F Gump]

Literally one of the reasons I stated we don't need Burke. 

A best use 3rd string and 4th PG on the team is a luxury we don't really have if we're trying to keep a pipeline of development and stay competitive. Especially when our team is handicapping the count by 2.

Either I'm not communicating very well, or you aren't listening at all. Burke fills a defined, clear, oft-needed role, because he is needed when any of 3 main offense creators is unavailable to play. He is the 4th guard, not the 4th PG, since they want to play at least 2 of them all the time. Having a 4th is not a luxury, it's a real need to have someone with those skills who can be there if someone is out.

Having 2 mascots who have no real playability does force them to make hard choices, but since they have immediate title aspirations, imo the slice will skew to who might be useful now in certain likely scenarios. The two mascots won't play, so can't really keep a slew of kids who can't play either. Pick 26 will likely be 1, but looks to me like Brown is a sure goner, and not sure they will have room for all of Chriss, Green, and Franky.

[Branduil]

Chriss and Brown could easily be trade filler, and Green could be a trade sweetener.

[Kammrath]

I think you raise an interesting question here.  Are we better with DFS at the four or the three?  I’d love to see some post-KP positional splits for DFS.  At a very basic level, B-Ref says Finney’s D-Rating was much worse post all-star.  By then KP was gone and Dorian was exclusively a four.  If you move DFS back to the three, you are probably having Bullock come off the bench.  I’m fine with that if you’ve added some defense to the front line.

Before this season DFS was much, MUCH better as the SF than the PF. This year with the scheme changes it felt like that wasn't really the case. 

82games seems to suggest it was a wash this year....he is better on O at the 4, but worse on D. Vice-versa at the 3.

http://www.82games.com/2122/21DAL18.HTM

[Branduil]

Before this season DFS was much, MUCH better as the SF than the PF. This year with the scheme changes it felt like that wasn't really the case. 

82games seems to suggest it was a wash this year....he is better on O at the 4, but worse on D. Vice-versa at the 3.

http://www.82games.com/2122/21DAL18.HTM

Not sure how that's a wash, these numbers show DFS playing double the minutes at PF compared to SF, but 4x the net point difference at PF.

The opponent counterpart stuff is meaningless to me because DFS isn't necessarily guarding the second-biggest guy every time, that's not how basketball works any more.

[KillerLeft]

82games seems to suggest it was a wash this year....he is better on O at the 4, but worse on D. Vice-versa at the 3.

Not really weighing in on where he should be played, because I think his versatility is one of his best qualities, but…

…I’d say the developments we saw with him attacking close outs, cutting more often, passing to the corner off the drive, etc, were helped along quite a bit by him playing the 4. 

In the end, his position is probably best determined by who he’s playing with. I think he’s not an ideal 4 if Powell is the 5, for example. But he certainly CAN play the position.

[F Gump]

Holmes/Powell   (Boban)
Maxi/J. Smith    (Bertans)
DFS/Bullock      (Frank/Holiday)
Brunson/Green  (Pinson)
Luka/Dinwiddie  (Burke)

This feels to be on the right track overall. But I don't expect we see a return to 2-big lineups, so I think Powell ends with a home elsewhere. You also forgot pick 26, who will bump someone. 

So I think your depth chart looks more like this:

BIG - Holmes, Smith, Kleber, (Bobi)
WING - DFS, Bertans,
            Bullock, 2 of [Holliday, Franky, Green], (Pinson)
POINT - Luka, SD
            JB, Burke
Pick 26 - somewhere at bottom of the depth chart

What would be the salary total of all that (without Powell), assuming Smith gets the full MLE? Also, is there a guy in that mix who alleviates the workload on DFS-Bullock as a 2-way playoff-playable wing? (If not, still missing a move.)

[ItsGoTime]

Either I'm not communicating very well, or you aren't listening at all. Burke fills a defined, clear, oft-needed role, because he is needed when any of 3 main offense creators is unavailable to play. He is the 4th guard, not the 4th PG, since they want to play at least 2 of them all the time. Having a 4th is not a luxury, it's a real need to have someone with those skills who can be there if someone is out.

Having 2 mascots who have no real playability does force them to make hard choices, but since they have immediate title aspirations, imo the slice will skew to who might be useful now in certain likely scenarios. The two mascots won't play, so can't really keep a slew of kids who can't play either. Pick 26 will likely be 1, but looks to me like Brown is a sure goner, and not sure they will have room for all of Chriss, Green, and Franky.

It’s more that you ignore my consistently stated “need” for Burke is way overblown. We aren’t going to agree on this, just thought the differing view needed to finally be talked out. It’s not a huge problem, but I see the need fir his roster spot differently and you had talked a few times about your view with no one offering much to the contrary, where, as you can see, there is plenty that view it on both sides.

[F Gump]

Ok, we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't ignore what you say, I just think it's failing to see what's important to them and how they play their players. I would wager they have Burke on the roster when the season starts, or someone doing the same thing (like Dragic), and think it's pretty much a given because that's what caters to their favored offensive setup..

[DanSchwartzgan]

You also forgot pick 26, who will bump someone. 

What would be the salary total of all that (without Powell), assuming Smith gets the full MLE? 

Didn’t forget.  You have to actually read the post where it says…”You end up with one too many players plus your pick (which can always be a Euro-stash)”.  

But, that isn’t why I’m responding.  You used the words “full MLE”.  Is your thought that we will work to get below the apron to use the full MLE and then resign Brunson and be hard-capped? The trade I outlined saves $7.2mm (THJ/Brown/Chriss for Holmes/Holiday).  Add in the pick and Brunson cap hold and you are at $150mm give or take.  

Or, are you hoping that by trading Powell it gets us far enough under that we aren’t hard capped?  Trading Powell would get us $16mm under, but no one is taking Powell without compensation.  Sending out Green also?  26 for 32 swap (trying to think of why would have use for one year of Powell…maybe an old coach wanting a good locker room guy to show his prized rookie the ropes)?

[Branduil]

My favorite trade which probably won't happen is still THJ, Green, and #26 to Orlando for WCJ and Terrence Ross.

Orlando is likely to draft a big man with #3, and with them already having Bamba, WCJ, and Isaac, someone's gotta go. They were also one of the worst 3PT shooting teams last year. So I think THJ, who has a history of being a good volume shooter, as well as a great team culture guy, could appeal to a team trying to finally make the playoffs again. And Terrence Ross has made it known he wants out. I think they most likely trade Bamba, which is why this won't happen. But if they decide Bamba is more valuable going forward, because of his shooting and shot-blocking, and they can re-sign him on a reasonable deal, THJ could have some appeal to them. This also saves them a few million dollars in cap space, so they could re-sign Bamba and still have plenty of cap space to go after a PG (maybe make a trade for Sexton?)

[F Gump]

DS

Full MLE = all of the 6.2M. None of the cap-related machinations were in mind. Don't see that as a real consideration.

I saw your "possible Euro-stash" comment, but a) its wording left the door open to picking at 26 and keeping the guy, and b) there's not a good candidate at 26, which is relevant to the result.  But not a big deal either way. We'll drop him in an imaginary trade, and that's solves that.

About Powell, I don't know where he goes or why, but I do think his days here are over. Since they have needs and he is an expiring, if nothing else, I think they will find a utility for him in some trade or other. For some team, he can at least offer a good-attitude innings-eater for a year, if you follow the expression. Maybe Powell not THJ is the one who goes to SAC?

Branduil

When you mention ORL, Isaac might be in play. Wonder if he's feasible. That's the guy I'd really want to puzzle over.

[Branduil]

I just don't believe Isaac will ever play like he once did again. KP 2.0.

[ItsGoTime]

My favorite trade which probably won't happen is still THJ, Green, and #26 to Orlando for WCJ and Terrence Ross.

Orlando is likely to draft a big man with #3, and with them already having Bamba, WCJ, and Isaac, someone's gotta go. They were also one of the worst 3PT shooting teams last year. So I think THJ, who has a history of being a good volume shooter, as well as a great team culture guy, could appeal to a team trying to finally make the playoffs again. And Terrence Ross has made it known he wants out. I think they most likely trade Bamba, which is why this won't happen. But if they decide Bamba is more valuable going forward, because of his shooting and shot-blocking, and they can re-sign him on a reasonable deal, THJ could have some appeal to them. This also saves them a few million dollars in cap space, so they could re-sign Bamba and still have plenty of cap space to go after a PG (maybe make a trade for Sexton?)

I would love WCJ, just not sure why Orl would trade for the guy just to turn around and trade him away. Really wish we could have gotten in on him when Chi was shopping him.

[Chicagojk]

I know this is old news, but it still bothers me we included our second round pick in the KP trade.   Now it is a late second round pick and those are basically worthless, but I would love to know how that conversation went with Washington.   I just hate it we are always the team throwing something in or another team makes a final ask.   I guess it just gives me bad vibes that our previous front office always seemed to scrambling to make deals work that they would throw something else in.   I really hope that changes.

Again, that second round pick is late and typically can be bought, but I hope this isn't the new normal moving forward.

---

I would love WCJ, just not sure why Orl would trade for the guy just to turn around and trade him away. Really wish we could have gotten in on him when Chi was shopping him.

Yeah, that Orlando/Chicago trade looks like a home run for Orlando.  For Vucevic they got Wagner.  Right there that trade is a home run.  But they also got WCJ and a future first.  Wow...what a haul.   

The Bulls after a really hot start this year, looks to be in flux.  Does Lavine come back.   DeRozan had a career year....can he do that again?   Lonzo has had surgery.  There are rumors they would move Vuc for a center who better fits their team.  Could Orlando get another lottery pick out of that trade?

Would you trade for non defense Vuc is the price was Hardaway?

[mvossman]

This feels to be on the right track overall. But I don't expect we see a return to 2-big lineups, so I think Powell ends with a home elsewhere. You also forgot pick 26, who will bump someone. 

So I think your depth chart looks more like this:

BIG - Holmes, Smith, Kleber, (Bobi)
WING - DFS, Bertans,
            Bullock, 2 of [Holliday, Franky, Green], (Pinson)
POINT - Luka, SD
            JB, Burke
Pick 26 - somewhere at bottom of the depth chart

What would be the salary total of all that (without Powell), assuming Smith gets the full MLE? Also, is there a guy in that mix who alleviates the workload on DFS-Bullock as a 2-way playoff-playable wing? (If not, still missing a move.)

This is how I see it.  I must have missed it, but does this have Timmy going out for Holmes and Holiday?  Holiday would be a good backup plan if Green does not progress enough to be able to give Dorian and Bullock a breather in the playoffs.  This is where the Trigg trade including Barnes would make a lot of sense.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
About Powell, I don't know where he goes or why, but I do think his days here are over. Since they have needs and he is an expiring, if nothing else, I think they will find a utility for him in some trade or other. For some team, he can at least offer a good-attitude innings-eater for a year, if you follow the expression. Maybe Powell not THJ is the one who goes to SAC?
 

Half of the equation of fantasy trades is figuring out if the other side makes sense.  It is one thing for someone to say Player X has to go, but finding a team that might actually want or need Player X is kind of important.  For instance, what team would THJ start for?  At his money he either has to start or the deal involving him has to include someone financially unattractive.  That's why players like Tobias and Hayward come into the conversation when THJ is part of the outgoing.  It is either something like that or you hang onto him and rebuild his value between now and the TDL.

Powell doesn't have to start at his new destination, but with cheaper alternatives out there, Dallas would probably need to tip to make a deal involving Powell work.  I guess I could see Powell as a one year replacement for UFA Damian Jones if Sac. doesn't want to bring him back.  Sacramento would be losing the more talented, but disgruntled player in Holmes.  I suspect the deal would need to be Powell plus something of value for Holmes.  However, with Barnes getting a good bit of time at the four, there might be a slot for Hardaway to start in Sacramento and they could certainly use some outside shooting (much depends on the draft).  I've used Powell and THJ in trade designs with Sacramento, but I kind of like the Hardaway based deals better.  Sacramento has that $4mm TPE which also allows us to move an additional low dollar body as part of any deal.

I'm less certain than you that Powell is gone.  Maybe he's just expiring filler in a larger deal but what if there isn't some larger deal (do we have the draft capital to even do a larger deal?).  Where does he go on a stand alone basis and at what cost?  If he's going to be an innings eater, I can maybe see him being more valued by a former coach than by anyone else.  He has former coaches in Houston, Indy and Orlando.  Two of the three project to have cap room, which would help Dallas, but none really need Powell as currently constituted.  Is he part of an Eric Gordon trade with Houston if they send Wood somewhere else?  I struggle to see the need in Indy as long as they keep Turner.  Maybe there is a role in Orlando where he preserves cap room for a year and babysits the kids. Robin Lopez performs that role now, but he's 34 and free.  Does Orlando give him a multi-year?  Or take on Powell for a single year.   

It is easy to argue that Dallas should do this or that idealized outcome.  I find it much more interesting if that is accompanied by a realistic path to get there.