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2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]
(01-15-2022, 01:10 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Maybe not as they are the same player, but for the overall roster construction they are. We are looking to upgrade the 2nd big position with a player with superior ability or potential to Powell/Kleber, who will likely make more money than Powell/Kleber, too.

My C rotation would look like

Porzingis 33
PF/C  10-15M player
Powell or Kleber 10M player
Chriss
Rookie/Vet Minimum

If we assume, that we are looking to add a PF/C, then one of Powell/Kleber has to go (I´m not even counting Boban/WCS anymore), unless you think Porzingis should be the one to go.

Honestly, I'm not sure the big rotation needs upgrading right now.  I think we already have too much cap invested in it, and if anything I would be looking to shave some of that off (by trading KP).  Also if you send out Maxi for Bamba, you can't really play any of your 2-4 bigs together (Powell, Bamba, Chriss), and I prefer KP as a center which makes it worse.
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(01-15-2022, 01:44 PM)BackToSquareOne Wrote: 12 Jimmy Butler, SF Miami Heat $36,016,200
13 Tobias Harris, PF Philadelphia 76ers $35,995,950
14 Khris Middleton, SF Milwaukee Bucks $35,500,000
15 Anthony Davis, PF Los Angeles Lakers $35,361,360
16 Rudy Gobert, C Utah Jazz $35,344,828
17 Kyrie Irving, PG Brooklyn Nets $35,328,700
18 Bradley Beal, SG Washington Wizards $33,724,200
19 Pascal Siakam, PF Toronto Raptors $33,003,936
20 Ben Simmons, PG Philadelphia 76ers $33,003,936
21 Jrue Holiday, PG Milwaukee Bucks $32,413,33322
22 Devin Booker, SG Phoenix Suns $31,650,600
23 Karl-Anthony Towns, C Minnesota Timberwolves $31,650,600
24 Kristaps Porzingis, C Dallas Mavericks $31,650,600
25 Joel Embiid, C Philadelphia 76ers $31,579,390
26 Andrew Wiggins, SF Golden State Warriors $31,579,390
27 Nikola Jokic, C Denver Nuggets $31,579,390
28 Kevin Love, PF Cleveland Cavaliers $31,258,256
29 CJ McCollum, SG Portland Trail Blazers $30,864,198
30 D'Angelo Russell, PG Minnesota Timberwolves $30,013,500
31 Chris Paul, PG Phoenix Suns $30,000,000
32 Gordon Hayward, SF Charlotte Hornets $29,925,000

Guys that might make sense for that package are Wiggins, McCollum and Hayward.  But I don't really see a trade match there.
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(01-15-2022, 01:21 PM)Tyler Wrote: THJ/WCS/Brunson


I honestly don't think this is far off of the REAL value of Ben Simmons. Of course, whether Morey comes down to reality is another question altogether.
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(01-15-2022, 01:59 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I honestly don't think this is far off of the REAL value of Ben Simmons. Of course, whether Morey comes down to reality is another question altogether.

I think you might have an outside shot to get in the discussion with Brunson/DFS, adding multiple first and eating that shitty Harris contract, if Morey comes down to reality.
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1) If the Mavs lose MC, you’d have to question their competence.
2) Schoder is a below average player, who’s borderline bad because he plays like he thinks he’s good. I wouldn’t put much into acquiring him. Team killer/progress stopper.
3) The Mavs aren’t getting MT or JC for rentals, roster filler, and a distant draft pick. 

I don’t see big possibilities for a meaningful trade.  The players with value, JB and DFS, would both be rentals. THJ, KP, Powell make too much money to bring back equivalent or greater value.  They have upside down contracts.  Maxi is probably tradeable in a minor deal. The rest of the roster has very low trade value. The best bet is to hang on to MC and just dump WCS.
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(01-15-2022, 02:58 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: 1) If the Mavs lose MC, you’d have to question their competence.  The best bet is to hang on to MC and just dump WCS.

If it were me, I would have already waved WCS.  

I can see another team swooping in and getting Chriss as Mark try's to famously 5 and dime this thing up.
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(01-15-2022, 11:01 AM)Kammrath Wrote: @"DanSchwartzgan" fantastic and thorough stuff!

Also, what would YOU do if you were the GM? Who would you be moving with the data and knowledge we have at this juncture?

Let's talk principles rather than players...

I want to play the long game here.  Not some quick fix because this might be the year.  I probably wouldn't be interested in guys who have peaked and are in their 30's getting paid for what they were in their late 20's.  

I think we have to understand that KP is going to miss some games every year.  It makes sense to me that we are being associated with guys who play the four or five.  We need someone who can play next to KP, but also carry a substantial load for the part of the season he misses every year.

I would have no sacred cows.  Not even our own personal Horacio Alger stories.  At $4mm and $1.8mm, DFS and Brunson are "the little trains that could".  They won't look nearly as attractive at $14mm and $18mm.  

I would try to be mindful of our flight risks.  

I would try to arrange our cap so that we can use the Full MLE next season rather than the TP MLE.  

I try not to sell low.  It is really tough for us mere mortals to gauge the market for KP.  Right now he's got the 7th highest LEBRON in the league and the 23rd highest Estimated Plus Minus (if you eliminate the low minute guys like Payton and Muscala, he's 18th).  That's a really good player.  Can you get Top 20 value for him?  Probably not.  Can we envision a world in which he and Luka can co-exist?  We can't really say yet under this coach.  It wasn't that long ago we couldn't envision this being a top-10 D.  

I would love to find a way to get an unprotected pick in 2023 (our own or someone elses).

I would love to have someone else who can create for themselves and others.  It doesn't have to be a PG.  It would be nice if they could play decent D.  It doesn't have to be a star.
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(01-15-2022, 02:58 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: 1) If the Mavs lose MC, you’d have to question their competence.
2) Schoder is a below average player, who’s borderline bad because he plays like he thinks he’s good. I wouldn’t put much into acquiring him. Team killer/progress stopper.
3) The Mavs aren’t getting MT or JC for rentals, roster filler, and a distant draft pick. 

I don’t see big possibilities for a meaningful trade.  The players with value, JB and DFS, would both be rentals. THJ, KP, Powell make too much money to bring back equivalent or greater value.  They have upside down contracts.  Maxi is probably tradeable in a minor deal. The rest of the roster has very low trade value. The best bet is to hang on to MC and just dump WCS.

I agree with your top three points, but I think you are under valuing some of the contracts.  Brunson and DFS are rentals but there a lot of teams over the cap and their bird rights have value.  I don't think THJ and KP are "upside down".  THJ is an established volume shooter and they get paid.  He also has a descending contract that can be very attractive in some cases.  I don't think he has a lot of positive value, but I think we could easily trade him for expiring if we wanted.  KP has value right now.  I'm not sure how much, but he is playing like a top 50 player.  His value takes a hit due to availability concerns, but he still has value.  Hell the way Powell has been thriving under Kidd's defensive system, I'm not sure it would take an asset to trade his contract either.
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(01-15-2022, 03:28 PM)mvossman Wrote: I agree with your top three points, but I think you are under valuing some of the contracts.  Brunson and DFS are rentals but there a lot of teams over the cap and their bird rights have value.  I don't think THJ and KP are "upside down".  THJ is an established volume shooter and they get paid.  He also has a descending contract that can be very attractive in some cases.  I don't think he has a lot of positive value, but I think we could easily trade him for expiring if we wanted.  KP has value right now.  I'm not sure how much, but he is playing like a top 50 player.  His value takes a hit due to availability concerns, but he still has value.  Hell the way Powell has been thriving under Kidd's defensive system, I'm not sure it would take an asset to trade his contract either.

Positivity from mvossman? Have I wandered into the Twilight Zone?  Tongue
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(01-15-2022, 03:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote:  
I would try to be mindful of our flight risks.  
 
I would love to find a way to get an unprotected pick in 2023 (our own or someone elses).
 


NY's PG situation is a bit of a mess right now with Rose and Kemba both injured.  Everyone knows of their love for Brunson.  Spotrac shows "practical cap space" of $13mm, so they aren't far from getting to the cap room Brunson would require.

Meanwhile, reacquiring our 2023 pick would put us in the game for trading 2022 to Indy for Turner right now.  Then, once we get past the draft, we can trade whatever combination of picks we want as we will have all future firsts at that point.  Trading Brunson to NY now could also open up multiple picks in a deal for Simmons.  I basically wanted to point out a way getting that 2023 pick back could help both now and in the future.  The issue, obviously, is how do you replace Brunson's ball handling.  Between McConnell, Walker and Rose, you are closer to starting a rehab hospital than an NBA back-court.  With Simmons, you don't have to add a ball handler to the mix.
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(01-15-2022, 03:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Let's talk principles rather than players...

I want to play the long game here.  Not some quick fix because this might be the year.  I probably wouldn't be interested in guys who have peaked and are in their 30's getting paid for what they were in their late 20's.  

I think we have to understand that KP is going to miss some games every year.  It makes sense to me that we are being associated with guys who play the four or five.  We need someone who can play next to KP, but also carry a substantial load for the part of the season he misses every year.

I would have no sacred cows.  Not even our own personal Horacio Alger stories.  At $4mm and $1.8mm, DFS and Brunson are "the little trains that could".  They won't look nearly as attractive at $14mm and $18mm.  

I would try to be mindful of our flight risks.  

I would try to arrange our cap so that we can use the Full MLE next season rather than the TP MLE.  

I try not to sell low.  It is really tough for us mere mortals to gauge the market for KP.  Right now he's got the 7th highest LEBRON in the league and the 23rd highest Estimated Plus Minus (if you eliminate the low minute guys like Payton and Muscala, he's 18th).  That's a really good player.  Can you get Top 20 value for him?  Probably not.  Can we envision a world in which he and Luka can co-exist?  We can't really say yet under this coach.  It wasn't that long ago we couldn't envision this being a top-10 D.  

I would love to find a way to get an unprotected pick in 2023 (our own or someone elses).

I would love to have someone else who can create for themselves and others.  It doesn't have to be a PG.  It would be nice if they could play decent D.  It doesn't have to be a star.

OK, who like me, will admit that they looked up Horacio Alger?  Now I probably am going to have to read one of his stories.  Always learning something new from this board.

As for Dan's GM plan, your hired...  We can only hope that Nico is telling Mark these same ideas.
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(01-15-2022, 12:46 PM)Tyler Wrote: If it's just about cutting Moses, there's no need to wait until the 20th. All indications are that the chances of some sort of trade happening in the next few days are very high. There are no guarantees and it may not happen, but I have no doubt that Nico is burning up the phones.

Who knows what they are thinking.  Or maybe we have a few extra days to see if any shakes loose.  Heck, maybe we can throw some $ at Willie and have him say he has Covid.    Or maybe someone else really gets it and Chriss can stay and we can kick the can down the road.   

The Mavs haven't filled their two way either, I believe.   I wonder what the thinking is there.   Carlik Jones is back with the Texas Legends and so is Feron Hunt.  One of those two make the most sense, but maybe someone like Kyle Guy is of interest.   Maybe they may find a taker for Trey Burke too.    Maybe they feel comfortable with Pinson and two league X to fill in short term.   They probably won't go down that round and Burke has played pretty well, but something to consider too.
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There we go.

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status...1718856706
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(01-15-2022, 05:05 PM)Tyler Wrote: There we go.

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status...1718856706

I have to admit, once I found out that WCS's deal was fully guaranteed this year I didn't expect this. 

Good for Harrison, Kidd and especially Cuban for doing the right thing.
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(01-15-2022, 05:05 PM)Tyler Wrote: There we go.

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status...1718856706

Nice. I like the two year deal too.  With Chriss, Frank and Moses Brown we have three low priced guys.   Maybe they are just here for this year but are nice low cost guys with some upside.
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(01-15-2022, 05:05 PM)Tyler Wrote: There we go.

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status...1718856706

via GIPHY

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(01-15-2022, 04:47 PM)chaparral Wrote: As for Dan's GM plan, your hired...  We can only hope that Nico is telling Mark these same ideas.


You may not think so after reading the below proposal as I'm about to send off two sacred cows in the same deal.  I'm just trying to further develop the benefits of getting our 2023 pick back...


We send off JB to NY and take back our 2023 and allow them to dump Walker to us (this helps get them space this summer).  They also get expiring Willie to help with LT exposure.

We then send off THJ, DFS our 2022 first and our 2024 first for Simmons and Korkmaz (who became legal to trade today).  That gets Philly closer to the kind of haul they've been looking for.  From our standpoint, it is THJ, DFS, Brunson and one pick (since trading JB is the thing that allows us to give Philly multiple picks).  

One of the big objections of sending JB to Philly is the small guys they already have in their back-court in Maxey and Curry.  Sending JB to NY for our pick fixes that.  Philly doesn't really need our picks.  There would need to be something else out there that allowed them to convert picks into win-now guys.

(01-15-2022, 05:10 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Nice. I like the two year deal too.   

Maybe like Frank's deal.  Keep him two years and you have EB rights.
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(01-15-2022, 05:11 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: You may not think so after reading the below proposal as I'm about to send off two sacred cows in the same deal.  I'm just trying to further develop the benefits of getting our 2023 pick back...


We send off JB to NY and take back our 2023 and allow them to dump Walker to us (this helps get them space this summer).  They also get expiring Willie to help with LT exposure.

We then send off THJ, DFS our 2022 first and our 2024 first for Simmons and Korkmaz (who became legal to trade today).  That gets Philly closer to the kind of haul they've been looking for.  From our standpoint, it is THJ, DFS, Brunson and one pick (since trading JB is the thing that allows us to give Philly multiple picks).  

One of the big objections of sending JB to Philly is the small guys they already have in their back-court in Maxey and Curry.  Sending JB to NY for our pick fixes that.  Philly doesn't really need our picks.  There would need to be something else out there that allowed them to convert picks into win-now guys.

I like this. Too late to use WCS, I suppose. 

I would (reluctantly) move DFS in a scenario that brought Simmons here.
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(01-15-2022, 03:12 PM)chaparral Wrote: If it were me, I would have already waved WCS.  

I can see another team swooping in and getting Chriss as Mark try's to famously 5 and dime this thing up.

https://media.giphy.com/media/SsYd1PVLVoIrm/giphy.gif
Josh Green is a top 5 Mavs player...
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(01-15-2022, 05:11 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: From our standpoint, it is THJ, DFS, Brunson and one pick (since trading JB is the thing that allows us to give Philly multiple picks).  


Even without the WCS/Kemba side action this still makes sense. It hurts just enough that it's probably fair. And it also secures a more predictable payroll for Dallas next year without worrying about retaining JB and/or DFS.

BTW, as much as the Knicks are thirsting after Brunson, it also wouldn't surprise me if we're able to extract something else of value from them in the deal. That could either be an extra sweetener to Philly or something affordable worth keeping. For example, I'd love to also get NY's 22 pick to send to Philly with ours this summer so that we can keep our picks in 23 and beyond. But even if that's asking too much, maybe there's a cheap player that could be useful.
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