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THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - Printable Version

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RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - dynamicalVoid - 10-27-2022

Its not groundbreaking...but DFS, MAXI, Bullock and Green are too many high minute guys that underwhelm offensively.  

DFS and his 3 shot are great these days so that should save him a chair.  I understand Maxi's unique size and mobility and defense are very good for playoffs...but you cant even pass him the ball...nor should you unless hes wide open behind the arc.  There is a high chance he fumbles the ball for a turn over or makes an errant pass.  I lean on cutting his minutes to only necessary minutes when you have to stop the bleeding in a playoff setting and his defense is the only way to possibly stop the bleeding.  I would give Green serious minutes with the starters and evaluate which player between Green and Bullock is truly more impactful for the team.

I would not be afraid to package 2 of the 4 in a deal for a more well rounded offensive player that is capable of attacking on offense...even if they are not asked to do that.   I want guys that arent substandard on offense in the case there is a loose ball and it lands in their hands they can take advantage of a scoring opportunity.  4 guys with heavy minutes that cant take advantage of a scoring opportunity is hindering the team.  Of course the new guy would have to be average to above average on defense...but at least have better offensive skills than the 2 players outgoing.

I dont care about scheme or Playoff basketball and the ball only being in Luka, Wood or Spencers hands...you cant leave meat on the bone with guys that cant take advantage of a scoring opportunity that 95% of other average NBA players capitalize on.  

Move 2 of the 4.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - KillerLeft - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 10:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Isn’t that exactly what Bullock does?  It is pretty much all Dorian does also.  Even Maxi falls into this in certain lineups where another big is doing the pick-setting for the ball handler.  


Major, huge difference, however. Those guys will all pull the trigger if the ball finds them in the corner and they're open. 

I haven't really seen anyone criticizing Green for not making shots, I think we'd all just like him to take them. 

I do agree that Wood has been soooo prolific during those minutes so far that there quite literally haven't been many opportunities for those other guys, however.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - DanSchwartzgan - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 11:14 AM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: Its not groundbreaking...but DFS, MAXI, Bullock and Green are too many high minute guys that underwhelm offensively.  

DFS and his 3 shot are great these days so that should save him a chair.  I understand Maxi's unique size and mobility and defense are very good for playoffs.... 

I would give Green serious minutes with the starters and evaluate which player between Green and Bullock is truly more impactful for the team.

I would not be afraid to package 2 of the 4 in a deal for a more well rounded offensive player that is capable of attacking on offense...even if they are not asked to do that.   

I’ve been cautious about posting this as I know it will be universally disliked, but I tend to suspect Bullock will be part of the outgoing if we make any substantial trade before the TDL or next summer.  Bullock and Powell can turn a $26mm player into $5mm next year given the Bullock partial guarantee.  And, the receiving team can sell their fans on the important role he played on a team that made the WCF’s last season.

Part of why this can work is he’s probably the most replaceable among out 7 high minute guys.  If we bring in a starter level two-way player, someone has to sit.  Reggie’s age and contract status mean he’s not committed to in the same way others here are.  Hardaway is a sell-low situation.  Bullock has a favorable contract for trading and is probably at the peak of his powers from a trade asset standpoint.  To me, the question is whether they find a deal before the TDL or wait until the draft (the decision on his partial guarantee has to be made by 6/28).


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - KillerLeft - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 11:28 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I’ve been cautious about posting this as I know it will be universally disliked, but I tend to suspect Bullock will be part of the outgoing if we make any substantial trade before the TDL or next summer.


Not disliked by me. That dude has been overrated since arriving here. I think he's a good enough shooter but his defense is nowhere near what people claim, imho.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - dynamicalVoid - 10-27-2022

Im not a stats guy and I dont know how to analyze stats so my stat math could be extremely flawed...

But it looks like bball-reference box stats(not advanced stats, dont know what they suggest) show that Green put up similar stats as Bullock playing half the minutes.

Bullock averaged 6 attempts and 2 makes from 3 point range last year averaging 28 minutes a game.   Are we sure Josh's defensive impact and hustle impact dont outweigh Bullocks ability to get off 6 3 attempts a game for a total of 8 point average for the season?

Seems like getting turnovers and/or hustling down loose balls to put the ball in Lukas hands for points would outweigh 8 point average or the ability to shoot 6 3s a game.   My analytical skills are non-existent though.

Im not trying to hate on Bullock...nor am I pro-Green...Im just trying to see what might help Mavs.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - dynamicalVoid - 10-27-2022

Is there an advanced stat that measures defensive impact leading to points?  Or a hustle stat?

Example:  Josh green deflects ball, DFS picks it up, passes to Luka and Luka scores because of that turnover?


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - mvossman - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 11:56 AM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: Im not a stats guy and I dont know how to analyze stats so my stat math could be extremely flawed...

But it looks like bball-reference box stats(not advanced stats, dont know what they suggest) show that Green put up similar stats as Bullock playing half the minutes.

Bullock averaged 6 attempts and 2 makes from 3 point range last year averaging 28 minutes a game.   Are we sure Josh's defensive impact and hustle impact dont outweigh Bullocks ability to get off 6 3 attempts a game for a total of 8 point average for the season?

Seems like getting turnovers and/or hustling down loose balls to put the ball in Lukas hands for points would outweigh 8 point average or the ability to shoot 6 3s a game.   My analytical skills are non-existent though.

Im not trying to hate on Bullock...nor am I pro-Green...Im just trying to see what might help Mavs.

They both were roughly 11 points per 36 with Green actually having better efficiency.  That is partly because Bullock does most of his scoring from three while Green does a lot more near the rim.  Bullock is the better floor spacer.  It also needs to be pointed out that Bullock is playing against starters and Green against second units.

I agree with above that Bullock is overrated on defense, mostly because there a so few plus defenders on this roster.  He is a little better than average, putting him in our top three that get more than 15 minutes a game.

I can see the argument for sending Bullock out and letting Green take on at least some of his role, but I feel like that player coming back needs to be at least average on defense.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - cow - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 10:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Isn’t that exactly what Bullock does?  It is pretty much all Dorian does also.  Even Maxi falls into this in certain lineups where another big is doing the pick-setting for the ball handler.  

As some point you have to acknowledge standing in the corner is a system choice rather than a player shortcoming.  So, I don’t see the logic that says Josh can’t play the same exact role as the player he subs in for because Josh should be doing more when we don’t hold Bullock to the same standard.

It's both a system choice and player limitation in regards to DFS and Bullock.  If I had my choice for who should dribble the ball between Green and those two, I'd pick Green.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - Chicagojk - 10-27-2022

It is only 3 games but I have been disappointed so far.  Not even 10 points for the season and he gets very little touches.   It comes a point where Josh needs make it impossible for the team to not give him 20 plus minutes a night.   A lot of players are in this spot.  Some do it, others don't.  Heck, Jalen was in this spot.  Jalen always got minutes but there was always people in the organization that wasn't completely sold on him or didn't think he should start.  Jalen made it impossible for the team not start him.  That takes a lot of mental toughness.   Lets see how Green responds.

Personally, I think he is better suited in a fast paced offense with a lot of ball movement and cutting.   Having him run to the corner and waiting for the ball with bended knees and hands ready is not the best role for him.  I have no idea why we don't try to play fast.  The few times Luka tries this, I think it is fun.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - dynamicalVoid - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 12:39 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: It is only 3 games but I have been disappointed so far.  Not even 10 points for the season and he gets very little touches.   It comes a point where Josh needs make it impossible for the team to not give him 20 plus minutes a night.   A lot of players are in this spot.  Some do it, others don't.  Heck, Jalen was in this spot.  Jalen always got minutes but there was always people in the organization that wasn't completely sold on him or didn't think he should start.  Jalen made it impossible for the team not start him.  That takes a lot of mental toughness.   Lets see how Green responds.

Personally, I think he is better suited in a fast paced offense with a lot of ball movement and cutting.   Having him run to the corner and waiting for the ball with bended knees and hands ready is not the best role for him.  I have no idea why we don't try to play fast.  The few times Luka tries this, I think it is fun.

Or...can we just save Luka-ball for 4th quarters or to stay in ball games.  Use motion passing offense in the mean time.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - DallasMaverick - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 11:14 AM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: Its not groundbreaking...but DFS, MAXI, Bullock and Green are too many high minute guys that underwhelm offensively.  

DFS and his 3 shot are great these days so that should save him a chair.  I understand Maxi's unique size and mobility and defense are very good for playoffs...but you cant even pass him the ball...nor should you unless hes wide open behind the arc.  There is a high chance he fumbles the ball for a turn over or makes an errant pass.  I lean on cutting his minutes to only necessary minutes when you have to stop the bleeding in a playoff setting and his defense is the only way to possibly stop the bleeding.  I would give Green serious minutes with the starters and evaluate which player between Green and Bullock is truly more impactful for the team.

I would not be afraid to package 2 of the 4 in a deal for a more well rounded offensive player that is capable of attacking on offense...even if they are not asked to do that.   I want guys that arent substandard on offense in the case there is a loose ball and it lands in their hands they can take advantage of a scoring opportunity.  4 guys with heavy minutes that cant take advantage of a scoring opportunity is hindering the team.  Of course the new guy would have to be average to above average on defense...but at least have better offensive skills than the 2 players outgoing.

I dont care about scheme or Playoff basketball and the ball only being in Luka, Wood or Spencers hands...you cant leave meat on the bone with guys that cant take advantage of a scoring opportunity that 95% of other average NBA players capitalize on.  

Move 2 of the 4.

Sounds like a plug for THJ.  Not afraid to take shots!!


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - Kammrath - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 11:28 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I’ve been cautious about posting this as I know it will be universally disliked


Disliked? No way! 

RB is a placeholder until the Mavs can find a better player. Just like DFS (now you will see what "universally disliked" looks like).


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - dynamicalVoid - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 01:20 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: Sounds like a plug for THJ.  Not afraid to take shots!!

If THJ didnt have traffic cone in his DNA and knew how to pass around a bball he wouldnt be so bad...

but...


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - dynamicalVoid - 10-27-2022

Give Josh those wide open 3s Bullock gets and lets see if its sustainable.  Green definitely has more impact on the floor than Bullocks, imo.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo - 10-28-2022

Nice game for Josh.

He did pass on one open shot, but over-all he did well.

Active on both ends. Kidd needs to give him more minutes.

And Josh in the fastbreak is like a muscle car. He needs to leak out more and get the Mavs some easy 2s.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - SleepingHero - 10-28-2022

(10-28-2022, 12:48 AM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: Nice game for Josh.

He did pass on one open shot, but over-all he did well.

Active on both ends. Kidd needs to give him more minutes.

And Josh in the fastbreak is like a muscle car. He needs to leak out more and get the Mavs some easy 2s.

One of the better games of his career. He stepped into those spot up threes like a pro and swished them all. Great to see.

Hopefully he can build on this.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - F Gump - 10-28-2022

(10-27-2022, 10:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Isn’t that exactly what Bullock does?  It is pretty much all Dorian does also.  .

No. And not even close to true.

Not at all the same, and not even close to my 3-game observation. Neither DFS nor RB turn down open shots, neither refuse to try layups when open in the lane. Both play a role in the offense by spacing the floor, and being a threat who WILL SHOOT when left open and they get the ball. Both will attack the basket when open with the ball and past the defender. Green's Simmon's-like refusal to shoot the open shot is what has been rendering him worthless in half the game.

I will say that JG's G4 was much better. But it alone doesn't erase what we saw in Gs 1-3, and it was acceptable but not great. His level of willingness to shoot, and work to score, in G4, must be the floor not the ceiling of his play.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - Jommybone - 10-28-2022

It doesn’t seem evenhanded to point to JG’s shortcomings in his 60 minutes of playing time this season without also pointing out that he leads the team in FG% (83%) and 3-point % (80%), excluding players who only played 1 game in garbage time (Tyler Dorsey, 100%).

Yes, his 5/6 from deep is a small sample. But so is his passing up of shots this year. 

His 3.0 scoring efficiency is also pretty amazing. That’s 18 points on 6 FG attempts for the season. Hard to do better than that.


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - sefant - 10-28-2022

(10-28-2022, 02:15 AM)Jommybone Wrote: It doesn’t seem evenhanded to point to JG’s shortcomings in his 60 minutes of playing time this season without also pointing out that he leads the team in FG% (83%) and 3-point % (80%), excluding players who only played 1 game in garbage time (Tyler Dorsey, 100%).

Yes, his 5/6 from deep is a small sample. But so is his passing up of shots this year. 

His 3.0 scoring efficiency is also pretty amazing. That’s 18 points on 6 FG attempts for the season. Hard to do better than that.

For all the offensive complains. Mavs have the 2nd highest offensive output with Green on the floor. Behind Wood.

Green on: 130.1 ORtg
Green off: 118.4 ORtg

(10-28-2022, 01:49 AM)F Gump Wrote: Green's Simmon's-like refusal to shoot the open shot is what has been rendering him worthless in half the game.

Simmons on: ORtg 104.3
Simmons off: ORtg 120.4

Carry the hell on (no i am not Kendrick Perkins)


RE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green - F Gump - 10-28-2022

(10-27-2022, 11:28 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I’ve been cautious about posting this as I know it will be universally disliked, but I tend to suspect Bullock will be part of the outgoing if we make any substantial trade before the TDL or next summer.  Bullock and Powell can turn a $26mm player into $5mm next year given the Bullock partial guarantee.  And, the receiving team can sell their fans on the important role he played on a team that made the WCF’s last season.

Part of why this can work is he’s probably the most replaceable among out 7 high minute guys.  If we bring in a starter level two-way player, someone has to sit.  Reggie’s age and contract status mean he’s not committed to in the same way others here are.  Hardaway is a sell-low situation.  Bullock has a favorable contract for trading and is probably at the peak of his powers from a trade asset standpoint.  To me, the question is whether they find a deal before the TDL or wait until the draft (the decision on his partial guarantee has to be made by 6/28).

I don't think the RB "5M" is even a thing, in such a discussion. No team will waive him from his 10M deal which is already very modest pricing in today's NBA. He is a player you keep or trade, but you don't pay him 5M to go away.

I think the big plus with RB and others is that Mavs need some rotation worker bees, at commensurate salary, and they do have some who fit. They aren't stars. But they are important, and they also are very easy on the cap.

The Mav payroll will prioritize Luka, then it's looking like SD and Wood will get some big chunks. Not sure there's really room for another 20M+ contract, unless Cuban is willing to SIGNIFICANTLY increase his commitment. To use your example, it would cost Cuban an extra 15-20M in salary, plus an extra 60M or so in tax, to pull the trigger on that if it's available. Seems very unlikely. I think Cuban will pay some tax, if he must, but he's no longer playing big spender like he once did.

In fact, in the next year I think Cuban is far more likely to be searching for a seat on the opposite end of that salary reducing swap, where he is the one giving up more talent for less, if you'll just take the bigger contract off his hands. (While I really dislike the idea, I don't think a Westbrook deal would be a total non-starter in Mavs FO, depending on what else they might get offered such as a pick or two and usable inexpensive side talent.)

As for RB specifically, I envision a much different future as "most likely" -- my bet is that, barring injury and a significant decline, next summer he gets an extension.