(06-28-2024, 10:57 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: You're looking at it wrong. 

Yesterday, we thought the Mavs were going to have to pay a first to dump Hardaway just to bring back Jones. 

This morning, we learned that they didn't have to give up a first, dumped Hardaway, and ALSO got back Grimes.

Now, we're discussing a scenario that's starting to feel pretty likely: Hardaway and Green out, DJJ back, but along with Grimes AND Klay Thompson. As long as they don't get raked against the coals by GS in the trade (which I find unlikely - they're getting Paul George and will want Klay to land on his feet), there really isn't a downside here. If Klay never plays a game for the Mavs, they're literally right where we thought they'd be this afternoon, and still BETTER OFF than we thought they'd be 24 hours ago. 

And, at the end of Kyrie's window, they'll now have not one but TWO usefully sized contracts for trade matching. 

Everyone just take a breath.

(06-28-2024, 11:00 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Nobody expects 2015 Klay. That Klay would cost 50 million a year right now. We are looking at roughly 20 million per season for one of the best shooters of all time. He doesn't have to be prime Klay for this to work. He just needs to be a deadly catch and shoot player for us.

(06-28-2024, 11:00 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Nobody expects 2015 Klay. That Klay would cost 50 million a year right now. We are looking at roughly 20 million per season for one of the best shooters of all time. He doesn't have to be prime Klay for this to work. He just needs to be a deadly catch and shoot player for us.

(06-28-2024, 11:05 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Unless I'm missing something, aren't we discussing getting Klay while keeping DJJ? Or is this swapping out Klay for DJJ?

(06-27-2024, 06:26 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: It seems like part of the equation is that you’re not super into DJJ. I’m sold on the part he played in this run, and think he’s about to start showing up on “best defenders” lists.

(06-28-2024, 11:07 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: No you are not missing anything.

(06-28-2024, 11:05 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Unless I'm missing something, aren't we discussing getting Klay while keeping DJJ? Or is this swapping out Klay for DJJ?

(06-28-2024, 10:57 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: You're looking at it wrong. 

Yesterday, we thought the Mavs were going to have to pay a first to dump Hardaway just to bring back Jones. 

This morning, we learned that they didn't have to give up a first, dumped Hardaway, and ALSO got back Grimes.

Now, we're discussing a scenario that's starting to feel pretty likely: Hardaway and Green out, DJJ back, but along with Grimes AND Klay Thompson. As long as they don't get raked against the coals by GS in the trade (which I find unlikely - they're getting Paul George and will want Klay to land on his feet), there really isn't a downside here. If Klay never plays a game for the Mavs, they're literally right where we thought they'd be this afternoon, and still BETTER OFF than we thought they'd be 24 hours ago. 

And, at the end of Kyrie's window, they'll now have not one but TWO usefully sized contracts for trade matching. 

Everyone just take a breath.

(06-28-2024, 10:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Agreed. Top of mind for me right now is that I brought up Klay Thompson 2-3 weeks ago and now SleepingHero is swooping in and stealing all the credit.

(06-28-2024, 09:48 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Bare with me because I'm going to try and piece together every rumor we've seen. 

(06-28-2024, 11:38 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is so well done.  I was going to write about this same theory (but with much less evidence), but my wife wanted to watch a movie.  A couple of cocktails later the capology part of George to GSW was just too much...until I saw your post.  Well done.

A couple of notes on your numbers.  We don't have to carry 15 players.  So, you can give DJJ the full MLE and start Klay at $22.6mm (with Maxi and Green outgoing).  That gets you to $70mm over 3 years...$94mm over 4 (I hope any 4th year is a TO).  

The GSW/LAC stuff is too complex for my brain right now.  If GSW takes the opted-in George for Paul and Wiggins, that is aggregation and they have to be below the second apron.  They can't do that without releasing Thompson's cap hold (I think).  So, that domino has to fall first.  Also, bringing in George at $48mm and filling out the roster will put GSW right up against the first apron (without any return for Thompson).  They have said they don't want to pay the LT next season.  So, that makes any returning salary for Thompson even more unlikely.  

So, how to create room for Thompson.  You could S&T Thompson into the $16.2mm TPE created by the THJ trade (same $70mm as before, but spread over 4 years).  Then you trade Green into someone's NT MLE to get your room for DJJ.  Unfortunately, you are probably cutting to a starting number for DJJ of $10.5mm to still have some cushion, but you are also keeping Maxi (14 man roster).

Another version is you find a taker for Maxi or Green (into cap space or a NT MLE with zero salary returning) and make the THJ/Grimes deal a 4-way.  Instead of the $16.2mm TPE, you can trade match Thompson to something close to that $22.6mm (14 man roster again...more if DJJ takes less than the entire $12.8mm).  Then you find a taker for the other of Maxi/Green into another team's space, TPE or NT MLE to have room for DJJ.  You'll get some assets back from that, but you are going to have to pay something to GS for working the S&T...probably just a second.

I think there is also a version where Paul is left out and it is just Wiggins to LAC and you set Thompson's salary at exactly enough to match Georges $48,787,676.  Turns out, that is also $22.5mm.  You still have to send out salary to another team's space, TPE or NT MLE.  This is better for LAC as they don't have to pay the part of Paul's guarantee that made the other version work.

(06-28-2024, 11:46 PM)omahen Wrote: I have been saying for a while. GSW might be open to Klay SnT as long as they don't get salary back. From there on it is just about how much would satisfy Klay. If Orlando/Philly are offering something like 50/2, would something like 70/4 (starting at 16 mil) be enough. In this case you only need to send out Green to keep DJJ. If the deal is bigger, both Green and Maxi would need to leave (for air) to resign DJJ.

(06-28-2024, 11:13 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: The only people with a legit reason for beef about this idea, imho, are those who have been publicly defending Josh Green. This would be giving up on Green, who is 23, for an old Klay Thompson. Dan, Smitty, others...I can see how this might sting for them.

But from my POV, I have started to wonder whether Josh Green will ever have the impact that Klay had last year, and I'm with SH. I think folks will be pretty shocked at what a difference he'll make here. And if I'm wrong, at least we know who all the Mavs fans will hate next season!