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'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - Printable Version

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RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - Chicagojk - 02-07-2025

I would be fine bringing Gortman back. Although, I would want him to replace Williams. Not sure I see the value of two smaller point guards when we appear to be focusing on height and length.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - audiosway - 02-07-2025

(02-07-2025, 03:57 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: I would be fine bringing Gortman back.  Although, I would want him to replace Williams.  Not sure I see the value of two smaller point guards when we appear to be focusing on height and length.

Totally agree.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - Chicagojk - 02-07-2025

Is the league getting bigger? Did Cleveland start the next fad? The last few years it has been switchable wings/guards. That is probably still the focus for a lot of teams. You see Heat have been starting Bam and Ware. OKC started Chet and hartenstein tonight. Lakers are big. Denver has a big front court. I wonder if this is a new trend?


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - omahen - 02-08-2025

(02-07-2025, 08:58 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Is the league getting bigger?  Did Cleveland start the next fad?  The last few years it has been switchable wings/guards.  That is probably still the focus for a lot of teams.  You see Heat have been starting Bam and Ware.  OKC started Chet and hartenstein tonight.  Lakers are big.  Denver has a big front court.  I wonder if this is a new trend?

I think "big", if skilled, mobile and that can shoot, will always be better than small. Players are really evolving and with every generation more and more skilled bigs are coming to the league. Both Mobley and Chet are decent shooters and this is probably the main thing why it might work for them. Lakers have a bunch of big wings like LeBron, Hachimura, Vando (all three are 6-9) that are also able to play SF. I wouldn't call them bigs.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - Scott41theMavs - 02-08-2025

So the remaining team looks like:
Starters: Kyrie, Klay, PJ (when healthy), AD, Lively (when healthy)
Optimal bench players: Exum, Christie, Martin (when he gets healthy), Naji, Gafford
Supplemental bench: Spencer, Hardy, OMax, Powell (when healthy), plus two-ways Kylor, Kessler, Williams

Thank goodness for the injuries, because tanking is key the rest of the way this year. Need our pick to be a good one, if not the Flagg consolation prize. Without the three injuries (four if you count Powell, which you shouldn't), that's a team that's way too good to tank and way too poor to make noise in the playoffs.

Have to say that the PJ-AD-Gafford frontcourt was way more impressive than I expected today, and actually makes me drool a little for PJ-AD-Lively (which we won't see for a long time - maybe next year). But way the hell too much quantity-not-quality in the guards.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - RGP1981 - 02-09-2025

(02-08-2025, 07:33 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: So the remaining team looks like:
Starters: Kyrie, Klay, PJ (when healthy), AD, Lively (when healthy)
Optimal bench players: Exum, Christie, Martin (when he gets healthy), Naji, Gafford
Supplemental bench: Spencer, Hardy, OMax, Powell (when healthy), plus two-ways Kylor, Kessler, Williams

Thank goodness for the injuries, because tanking is key the rest of the way this year. Need our pick to be a good one, if not the Flagg consolation prize. Without the three injuries (four if you count Powell, which you shouldn't), that's a team that's way too good to tank and way too poor to make noise in the playoffs.

After the initial shock felt at the Luka trade, I think the Mavs have enough quality to contend for the title this season, provided the Top 9-10 players on the roster are healthy for the full duration of the playoffs. Y'all can be a really hard team to score on with the length and athleticism on the squad. There is also a surplus of long wings to throw at defending Guards like Shai. Tanking should not be a goal, IMHO.

PG: Kyrie, Spencer/Exum
2x Wings: PJW, Klay, Christie, Naji, Martin
PF: AD, PJW
C: Lively, Gafford


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - KillerLeft - 02-09-2025

Seeing how many times AD brought the ball up last night and the ball ran through him above the break, and knowing they likely haven't had the chance to customize their offense around the new roster yet, even in the simplest terms, I think something became clear:

They were playing Luka as the 4. He was playing PG on offense, obviously, but when those sets were drawn up, his number was the 4. AD literally slotted into that same position, and was basically performing Luka's role in the offense at times last night, at least in terms of court positioning and spacing, so that the others could do the off-ball movements they've been practicing all season.

How this plays out in the future, I don't know, but I found that to be quite interesting.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - Smitty - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 01:05 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Seeing how many times AD brought the ball up last night and the ball ran through him above the break, and knowing they likely haven't had the chance to customize their offense around the new roster yet, even in the simplest terms, I think something became clear:

They were playing Luka as the 4. He was playing PG on offense, obviously, but when those sets were drawn up, his number was the 4. AD literally slotted into that same position, and was basically performing Luka's role in the offense at times last night, at least in terms of court positioning and spacing, so that the others could do the off-ball movements they've been practicing all season.

How this plays out in the future, I don't know, but I found that to be quite interesting.

Great observation. The biggest weakness to me is not having another elite playmaker in close games down the stretch. Kyrie is great, but better off ball with another initiator. Putting AD in that role with either a Big that’s too slow, or a wing that’s not big enough on AD - maybe that’s how they fill the need for another initiator in the clutch. A bit unorthodox, but something that can work against most matchups. 

Ultimately, I think a lot of playoff success will hinge on the play of either Spencer or Exum. With the emphasis on defense and nearly every player in the rotation being a plus defender, I could see Spencer’s offensive ability being leaned on more than Exum because he has more juice on that end. Then, the ”others” are capable of making up for what he and Kyrie lack on the defensive end.

I can see their plan a bit more. They also ran a lot of staggered screens early to get Klay going. I think we’ll see more of that incorporated as well.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - RoyTarpleysGhost - 02-09-2025

^ If they had a reliable upgrade to Dinwiddie, I actually love this roster. (and health of AD and Lively obviously)

I'm excited about the offseason. Keep AD, Lively, PJ, Klay, Kyrie, Christie, Exum.

Anfernee Simons and Coby White would be on my radar. Derozan might be too old. Cam Johnson not sure how much offense he can create. I don't think the guy has to be a 2 way player. Basically a guy that when Kyrie sits, he can be out there surrounded by 4 defenders.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - mvossman - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 02:32 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: ^ If they had a reliable upgrade to Dinwiddie, I actually love this roster.  (and health of AD and Lively obviously)

I'm excited about the offseason.  Keep AD, Lively, PJ, Klay, Kyrie, Christie, Exum. 

Anfernee Simons and Coby White would be on my radar.  Derozan might be too old.  Cam Johnson not sure how much offense he can create.  I don't think the guy has to be a 2 way player.  Basically a guy that when Kyrie sits, he can be out there surrounded by 4 defenders.

Will you be excited if Nico trades half those players and the rest of our assets for KD?

Anfernee Simons costs 25 mil and it does not sound like you are starting him.  I don't think you can spend that much cap space on a 6th man.  Coby has the right kind of salary, but I don't think either of those guys have any interest in being the 6th man (they have both been starting for multiple years) and both would be massive defensive liabilities next to Kyrie.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - RoyTarpleysGhost - 02-09-2025

I don't like KD. I think he is a culture destroyer. I criticized the Suns for trading for him. But I felt the same about Kyrie. Maybe Nico and JKidd really are tight enough with the Nike guys to make it work.

Both PJ and Gafford are on the last years of their contracts next year. I'm sure that will play into it. What kind of money and roles they want when extension talks happen this summer. I can see either or both being shipped out if the two sides are far apart.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - F Gump - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 01:05 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Seeing how many times AD brought the ball up last night and the ball ran through him above the break, and knowing they likely haven't had the chance to customize their offense around the new roster yet, even in the simplest terms, I think something became clear:

They were playing Luka as the 4. He was playing PG on offense, obviously, but when those sets were drawn up, his number was the 4. AD literally slotted into that same position, and was basically performing Luka's role in the offense at times last night, at least in terms of court positioning and spacing, so that the others could do the off-ball movements they've been practicing all season.

How this plays out in the future, I don't know, but I found that to be quite interesting.

 I think you have something here, but it's also not quite right.

It's true that AD yesterday had the ball a lot. So as a result he was Luka-like in those possessions in being able to do things with the ball. We're not used to another player having such freedom.

But Luka played the 1. What he did and where he played was not the 4. He brought the ball up the floor, dominated the ball, decided who might get a pass, etc. Labeling him as playing the 4 is just not accurate and makes no sense.

It's hard to know if anything yesterday was by a new design, or just happened to happen in this game. It's a sample size of 1, so it's beyond premature to say we are seeing a permanent trend. 

BUT - I saw 2 things I hope are going to be the new normal:
1 To me it was noteworthy that the PG did not have to possess the ball on every possession. Rather than the rebounder passing every time to Luka to walk it up the floor, there were lots of rebounds that brought immediate passes upcourt that pushed the pace.
2 It was refreshing to see the offense be so varied. It came from all directions, not just one player.  Because everything didn't go through Luka, the ball moved, and the offense was unpredictable.

SIDE POINT - if the offense now no longer HAS TO run through the PG every possession, it changes the importance of the PG, and lessens the negative impact if that position as seen as a bit of a weak spot. That's worth keeping in mind.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - KillerLeft - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 04:44 PM)F Gump Wrote:  I think you have something here, but it's also not quite right.

It's true that AD yesterday had the ball a lot. So as a result he was Luka-like in those possessions in being able to do things with the ball. We're not used to another player having such freedom.

But Luka played the 1. What he did and where he played was not the 4. He brought the ball up the floor, dominated the ball, decided who might get a pass, etc. Labeling him as playing the 4 is just not accurate and makes no sense.

It's hard to know if anything yesterday was by a new design, or just happened to happen in this game. It's a sample size of 1, so it's beyond premature to say we are seeing a permanent trend. 

BUT - I saw 2 things I hope are going to be the new normal:
1 To me it was noteworthy that the PG did not have to possess the ball on every possession. Rather than the rebounder passing every time to Luka to walk it up the floor, there were lots of rebounds that brought immediate passes upcourt that pushed the pace.
2 It was refreshing to see the offense be so varied. It came from all directions, not just one player.  Because everything didn't go through Luka, the ball moved, and the offense was unpredictable.

SIDE POINT - if the offense now no longer HAS TO run through the PG every possession, it changes the importance of the PG, and lessens the negative impact if that position as seen as a bit of a weak spot. That's worth keeping in mind.

I think you're missing my point a little. Yes, he played the 1, on offense. But, I think the offense was designed for the guy labeled "4" to play the "1" on offense. I can find no other explanation for some of the sets I saw yesterday, particularly in light of the emboldened paragraph. I believe this because I don't think they have had time to add ANYTHING new by design. In other words, I think everyone other than AD and Christie are just running the same actions they have been, and (not for every play, mind you, just in certain player groupings) they literally just filled AD into the missing hole (again, not in terms of what to do from the sets, just purely from a spacing/court location point of view). I just don't think they've had any time to do anything else yet. 

I don't expect this to continue, I just thought it was interesting.

If it helps, forget the numbers. My point is that it suuuuure seemed to me that the approach to getting AD out there fast was just not to disrupt ANYTHING anyone else has been doing all season. Even on defense, I think part of what we saw was due to AD being GREAT, defensively, and part of it was just due to the guy in Luka's place (low man, pretty often during the times Gafford gets pulled out) actually understanding how to play defense.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - KillerLeft - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 04:44 PM)F Gump Wrote:  I think you have something here, but it's also not quite right.

It's true that AD yesterday had the ball a lot. So as a result he was Luka-like in those possessions in being able to do things with the ball. We're not used to another player having such freedom.

But Luka played the 1. What he did and where he played was not the 4. He brought the ball up the floor, dominated the ball, decided who might get a pass, etc. Labeling him as playing the 4 is just not accurate and makes no sense.

It's hard to know if anything yesterday was by a new design, or just happened to happen in this game. It's a sample size of 1, so it's beyond premature to say we are seeing a permanent trend. 

BUT - I saw 2 things I hope are going to be the new normal:
1 To me it was noteworthy that the PG did not have to possess the ball on every possession. Rather than the rebounder passing every time to Luka to walk it up the floor, there were lots of rebounds that brought immediate passes upcourt that pushed the pace.
2 It was refreshing to see the offense be so varied. It came from all directions, not just one player.  Because everything didn't go through Luka, the ball moved, and the offense was unpredictable.

SIDE POINT - if the offense now no longer HAS TO run through the PG every possession, it changes the importance of the PG, and lessens the negative impact if that position as seen as a bit of a weak spot. That's worth keeping in mind.

You know what, I don't want to get bogged down on the position numbers of it all. Just forget my earlier reply. I agree with almost all of this.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - F Gump - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 05:56 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I think you're missing my point a little. Yes, he played the 1, on offense. But, I think the offense was designed for the guy labeled "4" to play the "1" on offense. I can find no other explanation for some of the sets I saw yesterday, particularly in light of the emboldened paragraph. I believe this because I don't think they have had time to add ANYTHING new by design. In other words, I think everyone other than AD and Christie are just running the same actions they have been, and (not for every play, mind you, just in certain player groupings) they literally just filled AD into the missing hole (again, not in terms of what to do from the sets, just purely from a spacing/court location point of view). I just don't think they've had any time to do anything else yet. 

I don't expect this to continue, I just thought it was interesting.

If it helps, forget the numbers. My point is that it suuuuure seemed to me that the approach to getting AD out there fast was just not to disrupt ANYTHING anyone else has been doing all season. Even on defense, I think part of what we saw was due to AD being GREAT, defensively, and part of it was just due to the guy in Luka's place (low man, pretty often during the times Gafford gets pulled out) actually understanding how to play defense.

Okay, I guess I just don't see their offense yesterday being by that sort of design (AD replaces Luka). At all.

What I did find "Luka-like" was that AD got the ball a lot, and was the focal point of the offense. But I didn't think it looked like he was doing what Luka would do.

I do think there was an organic shift that looks like that, because AD is your best player that you want to give wide freedom to. Luka used to be that guy. And that guy gets the ball with great regularity.

But I didn't think AD was operating in "Luka areas" per se. He wasn't on the perimeter, dribbling the air out of the ball on possession after possession, although he did get it there at times. He only rarely brought the ball up the court. There were quite a few possessions where he got the ball in the post, or as the guy being assisted. That's how I saw it, anyhow.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - DanSchwartzgan - 02-10-2025

I had some thoughts on this before the latest injury news.  Seems a bit outdated now.

I'm still not in love with Klay at the two, but they seem very dedicated to AD at the four as much as possible and they aren't ready to bring Klay off the bench.  After seeing the defense, I'm less of a mind that Gafford will be traded this summer.  We didn't look nearly as good defensively with AD at the five as we did with him at the four.  That ability to be a rover along the back line is (will someday be) more substantial than I imagined.  While we wait for Lively, I suspect Klay will be tethered to the Gafford minutes to create some gravity that our other wings don't provide (obviously out of date now as Lively might return sooner than AD).  I also think Christie continues to close games over Klay.

Offensively, PJ can at least get a set started and we can run a good bit of offense through AD in the high post if we want to keep Kyrie off the ball some.  In the past, our high PnR offense seemed largely designed to accomplish one thing...get Luka or Kyrie rolling downhill with options to hit a roller or hit a spot up shooter.  With AD in this spot, it opens many more options.  We saw action between Klay and AD and between Kyrie and AD that puts defenses in difficult positions (especially if AD hits his outside shots).  We even saw some 4/5 PnR that created problems.  The D created some easy buckets also.  But, Kyrie didn't have nearly as much space to operate as he is used to.  In the final seconds of a game when you need a bucket, it seems like the post might be the better place to start a play than trying to get Kyrie free for something moving downhill.  The good news is we have options there that we didn't really have before.

The exciting thing to imagine is what this looks like when Lively and AD play together.  Lively does just fine in space and having AD along the back line?  Yikes.  Our wings will be able to tighten up on 3 point shooters.  You better have 5 players on the floor who can hit 3's at a high clip if you are going to solve that D.  If I were Kidd, I might set Lively free to shoot 3's.  It probably wasn't a smart move in a Luka-centric rim rolling world, but it makes great sense in an AD-centric world.

In my mind we have 7 KEEPERS and then some (parts) in our top 11 players.  I still think Martin gets combined with Hardy as some point for an upgrade.  I have no desire to trade PJ and have my doubts about Gafford going out now that I saw this (briefly).

LIVELY       GAFFORD                                         Powell

AD             (PJ will get minutes here also)            OMax

PJ              (naji or martin)                                 Edwards 

KLAY          CHRISTIE                                         Hardy

KYRIE        (sd or exum)


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - F Gump - 02-10-2025

DS, interesting analysis. Thanks.

You already know this, but as much as I like the thinking, I would remind that we are trying to draw conclusions on what they would do, how well it would work, and ensuing roster-building strategy based on a sample size of 1 game (against a team without its leader and starting PG). And unfortunately it will be some time before we get sample size 2, 3, 4 etc.

I would also suggest that until we see Martin play and how he fits, we really don't know if he's better traded or if he might be a real keeper.

But I'm with you in being impressed, and it sure does look like AD can change the whole look of the team in a significant way on BOTH ends of the floor. That's very encouraging, IF he is available on a regular basis. The question becomes whether they can get a healthy-enough lineup for the next 2 1/2 months to make the playoffs, and play together enough to have enough chemistry when the playoffs arrive. I think that the results last season have made us forget how hard it is to adjust on the fly, and last season we didn't change the focal point of the team at the deadline. (Working in our favor is that AD played in this exact same system including the offense when Kidd was in LA, so it's not new to him at all.)


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - Chicagojk - 02-10-2025

(02-10-2025, 09:56 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I had some thoughts on this before the latest injury news.  Seems a bit outdated now.

I'm still not in love with Klay at the two, but they seem very dedicated to AD at the four as much as possible and they aren't ready to bring Klay off the bench.  After seeing the defense, I'm less of a mind that Gafford will be traded this summer.  We didn't look nearly as good defensively with AD at the five as we did with him at the four.  That ability to be a rover along the back line is (will someday be) more substantial than I imagined.  While we wait for Lively, I suspect Klay will be tethered to the Gafford minutes to create some gravity that our other wings don't provide (obviously out of date now as Lively might return sooner than AD).  I also think Christie continues to close games over Klay.

Offensively, PJ can at least get a set started and we can run a good bit of offense through AD in the high post if we want to keep Kyrie off the ball some.  In the past, our high PnR offense seemed largely designed to accomplish one thing...get Luka or Kyrie rolling downhill with options to hit a roller or hit a spot up shooter.  With AD in this spot, it opens many more options.  We saw action between Klay and AD and between Kyrie and AD that puts defenses in difficult positions (especially if AD hits his outside shots).  We even saw some 4/5 PnR that created problems.  The D created some easy buckets also.  But, Kyrie didn't have nearly as much space to operate as he is used to.  In the final seconds of a game when you need a bucket, it seems like the post might be the better place to start a play than trying to get Kyrie free for something moving downhill.  The good news is we have options there that we didn't really have before.

The exciting thing to imagine is what this looks like when Lively and AD play together.  Lively does just fine in space and having AD along the back line?  Yikes.  Our wings will be able to tighten up on 3 point shooters.  You better have 5 players on the floor who can hit 3's at a high clip if you are going to solve that D.  If I were Kidd, I might set Lively free to shoot 3's.  It probably wasn't a smart move in a Luka-centric rim rolling world, but it makes great sense in an AD-centric world.

In my mind we have 7 KEEPERS and then some (parts) in our top 11 players.  I still think Martin gets combined with Hardy as some point for an upgrade.  I have no desire to trade PJ and have my doubts about Gafford going out now that I saw this (briefly).

LIVELY       GAFFORD                                         Powell

AD             (PJ will get minutes here also)            OMax

PJ              (naji or martin)                                 Edwards 

KLAY          CHRISTIE                                         Hardy

KYRIE        (sd or exum)

It just sucks Davis got hurt.   His health needs to be the ultimate priority now.  Even if he misses the rest of the year.

I was really interested to get a look at a Lively, AD and PJ frontcourt.   I didn't have the high of the Luka led roster or not as exciting imo.    It is as awkward fit, but that made it interesting to me.  It goes against how many teams are playing now, but I think what Lively and PJ bring to the table that it could work.   It also may not.   You will need to be able to finish games with those three to work here.   If it does work, I think the skill of Lively and AD makes it tricky for teams to attack that lineup.    If you could keep those four, then you can use some assets for that other player.  If you could find a player (guard) who could compete with PJ and LIvely as your third best player, that is a really interesting lineup.   At least for a bit.    While you are probably losing a few depth pieces plus picks, you would still have good depth.   I don't know who this player is though.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - BigDirk41 - 02-10-2025

Depending on how long Gafford is out, this thread might be pointless now. It might turn into team tank after we learn the diagnosis.


RE: '25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive - Smitty - 02-10-2025

(02-10-2025, 09:44 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Depending on how long Gafford is out, this thread might be pointless now. It might turn into team tank after we learn the diagnosis.

I don’t think it’s wise to start a playoff rotation thread in November going forward.