(12-27-2023, 10:06 AM)sefant Wrote: The defense around Luka/Kyrie is not that far off from contender worthy (top 10 range) if you exclude Tim. At least if you look at the defense of specific lineups.

(12-27-2023, 11:44 AM)mvossman Wrote: Its interesting because last season Timmy (and Powell for that matter) had one of the better D ratings and one of the better net ratings on the team.  The Luka/Kyrie/Timmy lineups had a D rating of 111 and a net of +13 on a bad team.  That is from a sample of 226 minutes, which would be in the top 10 of 3 man lineup samples for this season.

So why are the numbers so wildly different this season?  Did both players get worse?  Is the lineup construction killing them?  Is there a ton of noise in these stats?

Its easier to see in Powell's case.  He has lost a step.  He is playing in smaller lineups.  He is being asked to play drop coverage instead of switching.  His on/off sub last season (at least early on) was McGee, who was a disaster on/off.

(12-27-2023, 12:07 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I also think Powell has been disappointing on defense. I don't think he's as well-suited for the drop coverages they've chosen this year (for Lively, obviously) as he is in a more switch-heavy scheme. He's basically wasted. It's very, very clear that Kleber was the team's plan for backup 5, as he's much more suited for drop coverage/paint defense than Powell (though I'd argue that sells him a bit short, too) and Holmes doesn't appear to be in consideration for anything other than a part-time-as-needed role. 

Not sure what to do about this backup 5 issue, because the answer is 100% NOT to have Lively and another big similar to him. Anyone who follows the NBA should see the flaw with that thinking a mile away. What if one of them (or, *gulp* BOTH) simply can't hang in the playoffs? I would say the likelihood of that becoming a problem is quite high. 

So, the backup 5 needs to be someone who CAN hang on a switch, at least for a few seconds, and then RECOVER to the paint. And I say this in full knowledge that the Mavs are trying to avoid playing that way. At some point, they won't have a choice. That's how the playoffs work, it's not optional. On the other end, if the player has no offensive utility, or even a limited one, he puts an insane burden on the others to create offense against playoff-caliber defenses. JJ Redick and others have been vocal recently about the idea that this problem, having to play someone who doesn't have to be guarded, guarantees that a team cannot win in the playoffs. I agree.

I like this team LESS after most of the trades for centers I see. I'm not saying backup 5 is not a concern, but I don't know if I'm ready to declare that hoping for Kleber's healthy return to playing confidently isn't the best solution. It seems like Kidd is currently in the process of making sure Grant Williams knows that position's responsibilities, too. I think that's wise, and might be a good way to go at times in the playoffs (imagine the spacing). Kidd realizing that he needs to cultivate options and different play styles is encouraging to me. It's telling that he is going with Williams/Morris at the 5 more than Holmes. I don't think that's ALL about his opinion of the level of Holmes' game, but also about his opinion of the STYLE of Holmes' game.

(12-27-2023, 01:57 PM)loki Wrote: Maxi coming back healthy and playing like he did a few years ago would be the simplest solution, but that feels like wishful thinking at this point. He only played 37 games last season and now he's broken down again. Hopefully they get him back on the floor in time to re-evaluate before the trade deadline.

I'm not nearly as worried about the backup center being switchable. You have to get to the playoffs first, and if the Mavs are dropping winnable games due to the Powell/Holmes minutes, it could have a huge impact on their playoff seeing. It might even bump them to a play-in team if they aren't careful. Sure, it would be great if you have a backup you knew could hang in the postseason, but if Lively can't do that as well I feel like they're screwed either way. The matchup matters as well. Imagine they end up playing the Wolves without a legit backup because they were worried about smallball. That could get ugly.

(12-27-2023, 01:57 PM)loki Wrote: Maxi coming back healthy and playing like he did a few years ago would be the simplest solution, but that feels like wishful thinking at this point. He only played 37 games last season and now he's broken down again. Hopefully they get him back on the floor in time to re-evaluate before the trade deadline.

I'm not nearly as worried about the backup center being switchable. You have to get to the playoffs first, and if the Mavs are dropping winnable games due to the Powell/Holmes minutes, it could have a huge impact on their playoff seeing. It might even bump them to a play-in team if they aren't careful. Sure, it would be great if you have a backup you knew could hang in the postseason, but if Lively can't do that as well I feel like they're screwed either way. The matchup matters as well. Imagine they end up playing the Wolves without a legit backup because they were worried about smallball. That could get ugly.

Of course, it all depends on the assets and cap flexibility they have to give up to obtain this proposed backup. I was on the Gafford train all offseason, but with the recent discussions of re-signing DJJ I'm not sure they can afford someone that expensive. Guys like Richards and Goga seem to be more in line with what they could pay. I'd happily give up Powell+2nds or even Hardy for someone like that. That type of deal doesn't rule out the Kleber-dream either.

(12-27-2023, 11:44 AM)mvossman Wrote: Its interesting because last season Timmy (and Powell for that matter) had one of the better D ratings and one of the better net ratings on the team.  The Luka/Kyrie/Timmy lineups had a D rating of 111 and a net of +13 on a bad team.  That is from a sample of 226 minutes, which would be in the top 10 of 3 man lineup samples for this season.

So why are the numbers so wildly different this season?  Did both players get worse?  Is the lineup construction killing them?  Is there a ton of noise in these stats?

Its easier to see in Powell's case.  He has lost a step.  He is playing in smaller lineups.  He is being asked to play drop coverage instead of switching.  His on/off sub last season (at least early on) was McGee, who was a disaster on/off.

Regardless, I agree with the premise that you want at least three defenders on the court with Luka (or Kyrie).  That still leaves roughly 30 minutes of court time when one of Luka or Kyrie are off.  When everyone is healthy, I could see a minutes distribution something like:

Luka 36
Kyrie 32
Exum 32
DJJ 28
Lively 28
GWill 28
Timmy 28
Green 16
Powell/Holmes 12

(12-27-2023, 02:19 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: As for the emboldened sentence, I SO, SO, SO HOPE the Mavs can get matched up with Minnesota in a 7-game series. Imo, there will be no easier out in all of the playoffs. What Minnesota is trying has (in my opinion, obviously) a ZERO percent chance of working in the playoffs. I am less worried about Minnesota than any other Western Conference team, and it's the specific and obvious tactic of spreading them out and NOT trying match size with them that will have them out in the first round.

(12-28-2023, 12:43 PM)loki Wrote: I agree there's a good chance Minnesota will flame out. The Gobert special. I just don't know if the Mavs in particular have the personnel to punish them.

(12-27-2023, 03:19 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Nah. You are not giving up Hardy, because you chose to sign Powell, but not Goga or Bamba. That would be just doubling down on your own gross negligence again. And yes I call it that. Nobody could have seen Lively coming and this team is 1-5 without him. We´d have headed straight for the lottery 

What if Hardy is a Reggie Bullock and doesn´t get going until January? What if it´s just a sophomore slump. That´s just as likely as last season´s shooting being a fluke.

(12-28-2023, 02:08 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Mavs did wind up signing Brandon Williams to a two way and releasing Dexter Dennis.  It looks like Williams has been putting up good stats with the Orlando G league team.  He is the same age (24) as Dennis and has bounced around teams for several years.  He is a 6’1 guard.  Sort of weird we seem interested in these smaller guards. 

We never have a good g league team.  Sort of confused why we don’t look for size and youth if you don’t care about your G league team.  For instance Darius Bazely is available.  He may never pan out but fits the prototype teams want.

I know nothing about Williams but the teams inability to really care about two ways makes me question their moves.

https://youtu.be/iFKs2DaeoGg?si=OS5MbN7M0NwWBvE3

(12-28-2023, 02:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I think they probably just believe he's a better PG/player than Dennis.

Size isn't everything, especially at point guard. It's nice, but so is quickness, speed, handles, passing, vision, IQ, improvisation, leadership, shooting, etc.

I don't know this guy's game, but sometimes the smaller guy is better.

(12-28-2023, 02:08 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Mavs did wind up signing Brandon Williams to a two way and releasing Dexter Dennis.  It looks like Williams has been putting up good stats with the Orlando G league team.  He is the same age (24) as Dennis and has bounced around teams for several years.  He is a 6’1 guard.  Sort of weird we seem interested in these smaller guards. 

We never have a good g league team.  Sort of confused why we don’t look for size and youth if you don’t care about your G league team.  For instance Darius Bazely is available.  He may never pan out but fits the prototype teams want.

I know nothing about Williams but the teams inability to really care about two ways makes me question their moves.

https://youtu.be/iFKs2DaeoGg?si=OS5MbN7M0NwWBvE3

(12-28-2023, 02:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I think they probably just believe he's a better PG/player than Dennis.

Size isn't everything, especially at point guard. It's nice, but so is quickness, speed, handles, passing, vision, IQ, improvisation, leadership, shooting, etc.

I don't know this guy's game, but sometimes the smaller guy is better.

(12-29-2023, 08:07 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: I was thinking about Grant per my earlier point that I dislike him at center with no other size.  Maybe Kidd is searching for a role for him because his playing time could be limited when everyone is healthy?  So he is seeing if they can find minutes at the 5.  I think the answer so far is the Mavs have better options.  But we will see.  Someone is going to lose minutes when everyone is healthy and so far this year Jones he has been better.

(12-29-2023, 02:44 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I assume he's looking for options to play smaller and more versatile in the front court (with better shooting/spacing to boot) because Kleber's status is such a question mark. Williams isn't going to block shots like Kleber did, but he's probably a little harder to move, mass-wise, and is FOR SURE a better rebounder than Kleber. In every other way, there's reason to believe Williams can function in a similar capacity. I think it's super smart. 

We KNOW (not suspect, KNOW) that the big guys become less playable in 7-game series against the best offenses/defenses during the playoffs. I think Lively will hold up ok (other than being a rookie), but I actually don't know that. He might get iso'd to DEATH and be unplayable. You know who won't? Williams, Kleber (if healthy) and (hate to admit it) Morris. 

Best case scenario, the Mavs have THREE guys who can space, run and defend in the playoffs, and that's on top of whatever they can get from Lively and Powell (might be a LOT from Lively, we'll see) playing a more traditional center role. 

I think preparing for all of THAT is why we're seeing Williams at the 5, and I'm thrilled that it's happening.

(12-29-2023, 04:21 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: I have to disagree with Williams at the 5 without a shot blocker.  I think it is going to be terrible.

I hope they play Grant as the 4, and decide on Powell or Holmes as backup 5. At least until/if Maxi comes back.
Opponents strength on offense was weaker in recent period so some of the improvement might be fools gold, but I dont think activity is (turnovers, deflections...).

I think they can survive on D with DJJ as the 4, next to Exum, Lively and Luka in the starting 5.
I just don't like smallish 4 guard lineups off the bench and minutes with THJ, Curry or Hardy as primary point of attack defenders.
But I was wrong before so let's wait & see.