(11-06-2023, 10:39 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: @NickVanExit
Mavs Defensive Ratings (http://NBA.com) 

Full Game - 114.6 (22nd) 

1st Half - 121.7 (30th)
2nd Half - 107.6 (8th)

1st Quarter - 128.6 (28th)
2nd Quarter - 114.7 (22nd)
3rd Quarter - 105.8 (11th)
4th Quarter - 109.5 (11th)

(11-06-2023, 10:43 AM)omahen Wrote: Very interesting. I noticed that Mavs are behind most of first halves. I don't have any idea, what would be a reason for this.

(11-06-2023, 10:43 AM)omahen Wrote: Very interesting. I noticed that Mavs are behind most of first halves. I don't have any idea, what would be a reason for this.

(11-07-2023, 01:52 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: We had a conversation a few weeks back about what Rookie Lively might look like compared to other rookies.  Some of the names that came up were S. Adams, M. Robinson.  Various people then opined that he might be as good as so-and-so or he’ll never be as good as so-and-so.  Well, we now have 7 games under our belt.

Lively’s box score stats are 9.0/7.7 with a block and an assist per game.  He’s had three double digit scoring games (16, 15 and 10) and 3 double digit rebounding games (14, 13 and 10).  His PER is 18.8.  His WS/48 is .216 and Dallas is +8.4 when he’s on the floor.  All of that in 24 minutes a game.  The 3 times he’s gotten 30 minutes or more he’s averaged 12/12 instead of 9/7.7.  So, clearly the ability to stay on the floor is key.  But, he’s a freaking baby.  He plays a position where grown men push his skinny frame around mercilessly.  And he’s doing all of this ALREADY.  I don’t think any of us really appreciate what we are going to have here in 2-3 years.

So, back to the comparison conversation.  Adams as a rookie doesn’t tough any of Lively’s overall numbers.  In fact, in his entire Rookie season Adams had one double digit rebound game (10) and three double digit scoring games (17, 10 and 10).  

Walker Kessler is a really good comp so far.  He was 9/8 his rookie season with similar WS/48, a better PER and a worse On-Court.  He had 33 double digit point games (5 of those 20 or more) and 26 double digit rebound games.  Lively is producing that in 43% of his games so far, so that kind of production is certainly within his reach.

Jarrett Allen was an 8/5 guy as a 19 year old rookie.  He had 28 double digit scoring games, but only FIVE double digit rebound games as a rookie.

Mark Williams was a 9/7 guy last season (but in 19 minutes).  It took him a while to get going, but he had 18 double digit scoring games and 11 double digit rebound games.

Mitchell Robinson got some attention here as a comp.  He was 7/6 but had the same WS/48, a higher PER and was a negative on-court.  He had 22 double digit scoring games, but only 3 double digit rebound games (14, 12 and 11…So Lively’s already tied that).

Finally, even Duren seems within reach.  He was 9/9 last year with worse advanced stats and a negative on-court.  29 double digit scoring games and 28 double digit rebounding games.

Every year we pine for “real Centers” like these guys.  Well, we now have one.

(11-07-2023, 02:12 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Powell...He's still a journeyman who should be benched from the 7-8-man rotation by any real bigs 

(11-07-2023, 01:52 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: We had a conversation a few weeks back about what Rookie Lively might look like compared to other rookies.  Some of the names that came up were S. Adams, M. Robinson.  Various people then opined that he might be as good as so-and-so or he’ll never be as good as so-and-so.  Well, we now have 7 games under our belt.

Lively’s box score stats are 9.0/7.7 with a block and an assist per game.  He’s had three double digit scoring games (16, 15 and 10) and 3 double digit rebounding games (14, 13 and 10).  His PER is 18.8.  His WS/48 is .216 and Dallas is +8.4 when he’s on the floor.  All of that in 24 minutes a game.  The 3 times he’s gotten 30 minutes or more he’s averaged 12/12 instead of 9/7.7.  So, clearly the ability to stay on the floor is key.  But, he’s a freaking baby.  He plays a position where grown men push his skinny frame around mercilessly.  And he’s doing all of this ALREADY.  I don’t think any of us really appreciate what we are going to have here in 2-3 years.

So, back to the comparison conversation.  Adams as a rookie doesn’t tough any of Lively’s overall numbers.  In fact, in his entire Rookie season Adams had one double digit rebound game (10) and three double digit scoring games (17, 10 and 10).  

Walker Kessler is a really good comp so far.  He was 9/8 his rookie season with similar WS/48, a better PER and a worse On-Court.  He had 33 double digit point games (5 of those 20 or more) and 26 double digit rebound games.  Lively is producing that in 43% of his games so far, so that kind of production is certainly within his reach.

Jarrett Allen was an 8/5 guy as a 19 year old rookie.  He had 28 double digit scoring games, but only FIVE double digit rebound games as a rookie.

Mark Williams was a 9/7 guy last season (but in 19 minutes).  It took him a while to get going, but he had 18 double digit scoring games and 11 double digit rebound games.

Mitchell Robinson got some attention here as a comp.  He was 7/6 but had the same WS/48, a higher PER and was a negative on-court.  He had 22 double digit scoring games, but only 3 double digit rebound games (14, 12 and 11…So Lively’s already tied that).

Finally, even Duren seems within reach.  He was 9/9 last year with worse advanced stats and a negative on-court.  29 double digit scoring games and 28 double digit rebounding games.

Every year we pine for “real Centers” like these guys.  Well, we now have one.

(11-07-2023, 02:16 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: He's not. He's about as far from "journeyman" as once can possibly be. He's been a Maverick longer than any other current Maverick. I imagine we'll start to see him creep into the franchise record books in some surprising ways pretty soon.

(11-07-2023, 02:20 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Sorry. I'm not Dougie, but a serious playoff team does not have Dwight freaking Powell in its 8-man rotation, period. Cheers to Powell for what he is able to do, but the only reason he has had the opportunity to do so was Cuban's pride regarding the Rondo gaffe.

(11-07-2023, 02:26 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I disagree, plain and simple. With every bit of this. I think he's a good player, and I'm glad he's around.

(11-07-2023, 02:28 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Fair enough! I very much respect your opinions, so I'm happy to agree to disagree on this. To me, Powell is a good player, as long as he isn't cracking the top 8 in minutes on the team.

(11-07-2023, 02:31 PM)The Jom Wrote: Now wait a minute here! DP’s 16.0 mins/game ranks 9th on the team for the season. Sounds like most of this disagreement is just emphasis.

(11-07-2023, 02:34 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: He'll rise on that ranking based on Maxi's absence, unless Holmes (and/or Kidd?) unbusts.

(11-07-2023, 02:37 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Interesting Kyrie defensive stats
Fg%: 47.7  Dfg: 38.6
Opponents shoot 9.6% worse when guarded by Kyrie
That's 9th best in the nba and best in the league among guards minimum 11 defensive fga

(11-07-2023, 02:48 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Sure but this is slightly moving the goal posts of the original argument, no?  Powell moving up because of Maxi doesn't mean that he'd be moving up in the playoff pecking order which was the initial concern.

Kind of funny because I agree with you and I agree with Killer and I think Jom made the main point that both your opinions can live in harmony.  I love Powell in his current role, he will be absolutely crucial for our 82 game success as Lively needs to learn how to navigate 48 minutes with 6 fouls at his disposal at this level.  I also agree that our playoff rotation will be stronger if Powell isn't in the top 8.  I also agree that he already isn't in the top 8, he was honestly playing very few minutes 2 years ago in the playoffs so now that we have a better pick and roll option I would assume he's probably moved altogether and backup center minutes goes to Maxi and we just play 5 out.  I could even see us playing DJJ as a center on offense in the minutes that Lively is on the bench as well and we've also flirted with GWill as a small ball big.

Luka
Kyrie
Williams
Green
Hardaway
Lively
Powell
Maxi
DJJ
Hardy 

That's our clear top 10 as of right now and I would assume that Hardy and Powell would be the odd men out if we started the playoffs tomorrow and shortened the rotation.

---

Kyrie's defense has been really good over the last two games.  The narrative on him has not matched what I've seen on the court.  He gets his hands on everything and creates a ton of extra possessions for us.

(11-07-2023, 02:48 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Kyrie's defense has been really good over the last two games.  The narrative on him has not matched what I've seen on the court.  He gets his hands on everything and creates a ton of extra possessions for us.

(11-07-2023, 03:26 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Not a narrative. Just a look at the lineup numbers. For whatever reason (I would assume playing too many mediocre and undersized perimeter defenders at the same time) Kyrie's minutes are hurting the Mavs on defense. Same for THJ.
Kyrie as the smallest guy on the floor is getting the easiest matchup (basically took Luka's spot) but that creates bad machups for his teammates. Against the Hornets for example he was defending Miller. Meaning that THJ/Green had to defend Ball. Luka on Hayward. Next game against the Nuggets he was defending KCP.


It's not really about Kyrie as a bad individual defender. It's about the amount of mediocre/undersized defenders you can get away with. Right now the Mavs are a pipe dream matchup for teams that want to switch hunt. So many weaknesses to exploit on the defensive end.

Leading to the big picture questions. What is the ceiling of a Luka/Kyrie duo? Can the Mavs put enough defense around them to make it work?

(11-07-2023, 03:39 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: I don't disagree with any of this and understand that the Kyrie lineups show a negative defensive impact but the thing I would say is that it's been a super small sample size.  I would also be curious to see those on/off metrics broken into 1st and 2nd half numbers because right now what I've seen is Kyrie leading comebacks in the 3rd quarter which requires stops being made and him being a huge part of our 4th quarter minutes where we have a net rating of +27.  I also know that counting stats on defense aren't the best things to look at but 8 steals and 3 blocks over the last 3 games is nothing to scoff at, especially when we're winning so many close games.

Something that I found really interesting that Brian Windhorst brought up time and time again on the Hoop Collective last year was that while the Nuggets didn't seem like a great defensive team, their clutch time defense told a much different story and we're starting to see a similar formula play out here (not saying we're on that level obviously, just found it interesting commentary on how defense can be leveled up when needed by good teams).