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RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - mvossman - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote:  In either case, Nowell, DJJ, Oubre and the like are just guys to fill the 14th slot (since we’ve presumably have two outgoing players for one returning in any trade for a center and would have to fill the roster back to 14.  I don’t think we will start the season with 15.

I must have a much higher opinion of DJJ than most folks.  In my mind he is at least worth roughly the BAE, and by far the best option available.  I'm not convinced that Exum would get more minutes than him.  I see him in the 10-12 range on the roster.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - Scott41theMavs - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:28 PM)mvossman Wrote: I must have a much higher opinion of DJJ than most folks.  In my mind he is at least worth roughly the BAE, and by far the best option available.  I'm not convinced that Exum would get more minutes than him.  I see him in the 10-12 range on the roster.

I'm with you on DJJ, although I think Exum would get about the same minutes presuming they trust him as the third point guard.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - mvossman - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:26 PM)F Gump Wrote: So much of this blather from Minny, on its face, is certainly irrational.
1 Mavs already have a full roster, assuming they intend to carry 14.
2 There's nothing about Nowell that screams "Mavs badly need that guy."
3 Nowell is UFA, and if the Mavs really wanted him, they don't have to involve the Wolves. Just sign him with a minimum, or some of the MLE leftovers.

It's hard to even see how this guy would be trade filler, because MIN doesn't have him on their roster. They would have to create a contract for him, in order to trade it.

So that would take us to the idea that he is not the target, but instead he would be added to a deal so that MIN has enough matching, and that makes sense. The match numbers on a THJ-Anderson swap certainly align with such an idea, as would the idea that both players are fairly decent rotation players whose teams would rather move them. But it's hard to see how that swap fills any particular hole in the rotation for the Mavs.

For a team in need of defense and rebounding/size, that swap makes a lot of sense, especially since we are intending to fill Tim's offense with Hardy and Curry.  Not sure why Minny does it.  Anderson is not worth adding assets (maybe a second or two).


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - F Gump - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:40 PM)mvossman Wrote: For a team in need of defense and rebounding/size, that swap makes a lot of sense, especially since we are intending to fill Tim's offense with Hardy and Curry.  Not sure why Minny does it.  Anderson is not worth adding assets (maybe a second or two).

There have been serious issues between Anderson and Gobert. Like with Draymond and Poole, you wouldn't expect Minny to keep both on the roster going forward.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - mvossman - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:46 PM)F Gump Wrote: There have been serious issues between Anderson and Gobert. Like with Draymond and Poole, you wouldn't expect Minny to keep both on the roster going forward.

Mitchell had issues with Gobert as well, right?  If this is about Gobert being a putz then I am very happy to capitalize on that, but we have been cleaning the locker room and don't want to add Anderson if he is an issue in that regard.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - F Gump - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:19 PM)Jym Wrote: Yeah Holmes outgoing in any center trade just makes too much sense
And it looks like he'd be eligible for aggregation on September 4th. Which is pretty perfect right before camp. Hopefully can avoid major in-season trades this time

Holmes-McGee
Capella

Then

THJ
Anderson-Nowell

Roster change --
NEW ................................................ OLD
Capella Kleber Powell Lively         Holmes Powell Lively McGee
PF  Williams Anderson OMax             Williams Kleber Omax
SF  Luka Nowell                               Luka THJ
SG  Green Curry Hardy                       Curry Hardy
PG Irving Exum                                 Irving Exum


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - DanSchwartzgan - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:19 PM)Jym Wrote: Yeah Holmes outgoing in any center trade just makes too much sense
And it looks like he'd be eligible for aggregation on September 4th. Which is pretty perfect right before camp. Hopefully can avoid major in-season trades this time

Of course, Holmes isn’t needed in a Capela trade as both Minnesota and Toronto are full up at the position.

Apparently, Stein said something on the radio Saturday about Dallas wanting to ‘revisit’ talks from earlier this summer.  Take away Bojan and PJ from the possibilities and all you have left is Ayton and Capela.  Maybe it is Ayton.  THJ and Holmes are a match for Ayton after 9/4.  

But, there needs to probably be something else.  The extra salary puts us within $1.6mm of the tax and we have to add a 14th player at $2.0mm.  So, something else would need to be added or Dallas would need to be willing to go into the tax (but going into the tax by a few dollars doesn’t make a ton of sense for a team that has manipulated numbers all summer to get a very specific outcome).

Edit: One other Stein note. He said Phoenix is interested in TJ McConnell. I think McConnell and Holmes better fit what Phoenix really needs than Hardaway. THJ to Indy? Hield needs to get to a team that will pay him next summer. Will Indy pay up? Doesn’t seem likely.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - myconsumerclub - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 02:02 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: If you explain the joke, it isn't as funny.

He is just taking the scenic route. 

Actually I am of the opinion that that Kidd had made the decision to tank way earlier in the year than most people think 

That is the reason we used Powell so much and traded off DFS.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs had conflicting opinions on Ayton - SleepingHero - 07-24-2023

Tim Cato had a mailbag today and answered a bunch of questions. This one stood out to me:

John J. asks, “Is the Deandre Ayton trade dead?”

Yes, the Phoenix Suns decided not to trade him. It had nothing to do with Dallas. I’m not sure Phoenix seriously considered the reported package — Hardaway, Holmes and JaVale McGee, per Marc Stein — and I’m not sure Dallas would have been willing to offer more. As a pure talent upgrade, it made sense even with Ayton’s uncertain fit. (My perception is that there was a wide range of opinions within the Mavericks’ organization about Ayton and how he would perform here.) But unless Phoenix has renewed interest in trading Ayton far below his potential trade value, which to my understanding was the primary reason the team decided not to deal him, I can’t see him ending up in Dallas, even at a later point.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs had conflicting opinions on Ayton - KillerLeft - 07-24-2023

(07-24-2023, 11:29 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Tim Cato had a mailbag today and answered a bunch of questions. This one stood out to me:

John J. asks, “Is the Deandre Ayton trade dead?”

Yes, the Phoenix Suns decided not to trade him. It had nothing to do with Dallas. I’m not sure Phoenix seriously considered the reported package — Hardaway, Holmes and JaVale McGee, per Marc Stein — and I’m not sure Dallas would have been willing to offer more. As a pure talent upgrade, it made sense even with Ayton’s uncertain fit. (My perception is that there was a wide range of opinions within the Mavericks’ organization about Ayton and how he would perform here.) But unless Phoenix has renewed interest in trading Ayton far below his potential trade value, which to my understanding was the primary reason the team decided not to deal him, I can’t see him ending up in Dallas, even at a later point.

[Image: its-party-time-party.gif]


RE: MAVS NEWS: DAL interested in Nowell?|Mavs had conflicting opinions on Ayton - Branduil - 07-25-2023

Phoenix is definitely going to be disappointed in his value when they do eventually trade him, though maybe still not as disappointed as the team that trades for him.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs had conflicting opinions on Ayton - mvossman - 07-25-2023

(07-24-2023, 11:29 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Tim Cato had a mailbag today and answered a bunch of questions. This one stood out to me:

John J. asks, “Is the Deandre Ayton trade dead?”

Yes, the Phoenix Suns decided not to trade him. It had nothing to do with Dallas. I’m not sure Phoenix seriously considered the reported package — Hardaway, Holmes and JaVale McGee, per Marc Stein — and I’m not sure Dallas would have been willing to offer more. As a pure talent upgrade, it made sense even with Ayton’s uncertain fit. (My perception is that there was a wide range of opinions within the Mavericks’ organization about Ayton and how he would perform here.) But unless Phoenix has renewed interest in trading Ayton far below his potential trade value, which to my understanding was the primary reason the team decided not to deal him, I can’t see him ending up in Dallas, even at a later point.

This makes sense to me.  I was always skeptical that package would land Ayton or that there would be a price that makes sense for both teams.  My guess is their demands would be at least as much as Capela demands, a first or Green or Hardy and we are not willing to do that for either player.   I really like how our FO is operating this summer.


RE: MAVS NEWS: DAL interested in Nowell?|Mavs had conflicting opinions on Ayton - Chicagojk - 07-25-2023

Interesting post by the mavs last week. Otherwise known as “check this out other NBa teams…he is not a discarded piece on throwaway”

https://www.instagram.com/p/CvAdsNLr1wz/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - DanSchwartzgan - 07-25-2023

(07-24-2023, 03:26 PM)F Gump Wrote: So that would take us to the idea that he is not the target, but instead he would be added to a deal so that MIN has enough matching, and that makes sense. The match numbers on a THJ-Anderson swap certainly align with such an idea, as would the idea that both players are fairly decent rotation players whose teams would rather move them.

Yeah, with Nowell it could certainly be that.  Or, it could be like all the other guys who’ve gotten a Mav’s mention.  Dallas has no plan to add anyone unless or until they do a 2 for 1 swap and need to get back to 14 players.

I wonder if Atlanta ultimately turns to KAT and Bufkin is part of what the TWolves want in the deal.  Maybe we get Anderson and Capela as you designed below, but it ends up being one big deal with Minnesota and Atlanta


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - mvossman - 07-25-2023

(07-25-2023, 11:11 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Yeah, with Nowell it could certainly be that.  Or, it could be like all the other guys who’ve gotten a Mav’s mention.  Dallas has no plan to add anyone unless or until they do a 2 for 1 swap and need to get back to 14 players.

I wonder if Atlanta ultimately turns to KAT and Bufkin is part of what the TWolves want in the deal.  Maybe we get Anderson and Capela as you designed below, but it ends up being one big deal with Minnesota and Atlanta

If we are sending out Timmy and Holmes and getting back Capela and Anderson, that has to include a first (if not Green or Hardy).  Maybe a protected first using one of those seconds we traded for.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - Hooper21 - 07-25-2023

(07-25-2023, 11:54 AM)mvossman Wrote: If we are sending out Timmy and Holmes and getting back Capela and Anderson, that has to include a first (if not Green or Hardy).  Maybe a protected first using one of those seconds we traded for.

Why does it 'have' to include Hardy or Green?  I would think Anderson is distressed due to the incident with Gobert and the Hawks have been shopping Capela and his too-big contract for a while.  I hope Nico and Co. are sticking to contract $$ matching and not throwing sweetners in.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - mvossman - 07-25-2023

(07-25-2023, 12:08 PM)Hooper21 Wrote: Why does it 'have' to include Hardy or Green?  I would think Anderson is distressed due to the incident with Gobert and the Hawks have been shopping Capela and his too-big contract for a while.  I hope Nico and Co. are sticking to contract $$ matching and not throwing sweetners in.

I could be convinced we could do an Anderson for Timmy swap, but Holmes is also a distressed asset (we just got a first to take on that contract) and the ask for Capela was Green or Hardy.  The price may go down a little in order to facilitate a big trade, but they are not going to go from Hardy or Green to distressed asset and a couple of seconds.  At least I find it very unlikely, and I don't like to get my hopes up on that kind of thing.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - DanSchwartzgan - 07-25-2023

(07-25-2023, 12:24 PM)mvossman Wrote: I could be convinced we could do an Anderson for Timmy swap, but Holmes is also a distressed asset (we just got a first to take on that contract) and the ask for Capela was Green or Hardy.  The price may go down a little in order to facilitate a big trade, but they are not going to go from Hardy or Green to distressed asset and a couple of seconds.  At least I find it very unlikely, and I don't like to get my hopes up on that kind of thing.

This is all logical.  My response to the post before this would be “so”?

The 2028 second provides an easy way to protect the 2027 pick.  You have to give to get, so the question then becomes whether you are getting enough for what you are giving.  I feel like this front office has earned some trust (at least relative to years past).  I won’t know what I think about dealing the 2027 pick until I see the details.  But, I’m not against trading it in absolute terms.  It is a question of value for me.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - KillerLeft - 07-25-2023

(07-25-2023, 01:46 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is all logical.  My response to the post before this would be “so”?

The 2028 second provides an easy way to protect the 2027 pick.  You have to give to get, so the question then becomes whether you are getting enough for what you are giving.  I feel like this front office has earned some trust (at least relative to years past).  I won’t know what I think about dealing the 2027 pick until I see the details.  But, I’m not against trading it in absolute terms.  It is a question of value for me.

Agree, but from my perspective, there isn't enough value in Capela to justify including it unless it's protected in such a way where it's almost guaranteed to become a 2nd (and soon), and I don't even want Anderson.


RE: MAVS NEWS: Mavs may be interested in Gay? - F Gump - 07-25-2023

(07-25-2023, 12:24 PM)mvossman Wrote: I could be convinced we could do an Anderson for Timmy swap, but Holmes is also a distressed asset (we just got a first to take on that contract) and the ask for Capela was Green or Hardy.  The price may go down a little in order to facilitate a big trade, but they are not going to go from Hardy or Green to distressed asset and a couple of seconds.  At least I find it very unlikely, and I don't like to get my hopes up on that kind of thing.

I don't think your comps hold up. It's cherry-picking one aspect of the values in a trade, without including the rest.

For example, re the value of Holmes ---in taking Holmes, the pick being paid wasn't about the value of Holmes the player per se, but rather the value of the Mavs eating $12M of cap room for SAC this summer (and next summer too), since no player being sent in return. That swap tells us more about the value of cap room, and less about the value being placed on Holmes as a player.

These ideas don't have ATL taking on Holmes contract to create cap room for DAL, but rather a swap of cap obligations. In fact, ATL is the one getting payroll reduction (about 3M this season, and about 6M overall).

Re the value of Capela himself related to ANY trade -- in the draft day proposals, ATL's ask of Green (and also a pick swap) was not necessarily about the value of Capela at all, but rather the perceived diff in usefulness between Bertans and Capella. 
CAPELA for BERTANS, with Green/swap being the tip they asked.

That doesn't give us any indication of what Capela himself is worth to ATL overall, but only in relation to Bertans (who is not part of this trade idea). If they get back 2 lesser paid centers with differing styles and strengths, who they can use to back up Okongwu, and free up minutes for Okongwu by being rid of Capela, without having to pay someone to take Capela's contract off their payroll, and also reduce their overall payroll in the process, maybe it's enough.

I would add that I don't think Capela's price tag, whatever it is, is way far from what the Mavs have to offer. These talks would have put buried long ago if that was not the case imo. And I have to wonder if the issue at this point is more about getting past the Holmes trade restriction than anything else. They don't need Siakam to be incoming to want to move off of Capela and free up minutes for Okongwu and his smaller contract.