(01-10-2026, 12:47 PM)loki Wrote: I could see them having a little optimism and paying a reasonable tax bill to let that group have a shot. But would they pay $150m in tax for it? That seems crazy to me.

(01-10-2026, 02:43 PM)windjc Wrote: I am pretty sure AD got injured because so many on the board were desperate for a trade. Hilarious stuff actually.

(01-10-2026, 03:39 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: [Amick] Michael Porter Jr. is a “lock” to be moved by the trade deadline.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6959490/2026/01/10/ja-morant-trade-market-grizzlies-clippers-timberwolves/?source=user_shared_article

Finally, let’s talk about one deep dark horse: Brooklyn. With one trusted league source telling me that Michael Porter Jr. is a lock to move by the deadline so the Nets can sell high on his career year, it makes sense for the Nets to figure out who will be the centerpiece of their franchise a year from now. Remember, Brooklyn owes a pick swap to Houston in 2027 and thus has no incentive to tank next season. They need some players.

(01-10-2026, 12:47 PM)loki Wrote: I could see them having a little optimism and paying a reasonable tax bill to let that group have a shot. But would they pay $150m in tax for it? That seems crazy to me.

(01-10-2026, 04:10 PM)F Gump Wrote: I'm not sure where you are getting your $150M number from that you keep using for the Mavs tax next season with the current contracts, but I think it's way high. I don't have my tax widget on this computer, but if they do nothing at all, the Google AI pegs the tax bill for 2026-27 at about $65M. For me that's a fortune, but for NBA teams choosing to work in the vicinity of A2 like the Mavs have deliberately done, it's not a cause for alarm. It's the general cost of doing business. IIRC Cuban paid way more than that one year about 20-25 years ago in order to try to get extra talent, before the NBA started tightening the rules. 

(01-10-2026, 12:44 PM)mvossman Wrote: How many injuries will it take before its clear his body is breaking down.  He is at the age where many NBA big men break down.  He has a history of sustaining a lot of injuries (he is not called "street clothes" for nothing) and as he gets older its going to happen more often and take longer to recover from.  

Giannis is not a good comp.  He is almost two years younger and does not have the same injury history (he is also a much better player).  A better comp would Embiid.  That is the path it looks like AD is heading down.  How much would give for him?

(01-10-2026, 06:35 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I agree with a lot on both sides of this argument. Generally, I agree AD is a too-often injured player and that these situations are getting to be more and more of a beating.

However, this latest one is a one in a million freak thing, not a sign that he's breaking down. It could've happened to anyone. This is why I think ATL might still be interested.

(01-10-2026, 05:25 PM)loki Wrote: The numbers you're seeing are most likely calculated with non-repeater rates. Here's how I'm getting my numbers. I'm assuming a $166M cap based on the league's most recent projections. I won't claim a mistake is impossible, but I think this is in alignment with what Bobby Marks projected recently.

Dallas currently has 12 players under contract for 26-27 (including DLo's player option). Adding that to the $2.3M McGee/Prosper dead cap charges gives a total of $217.1M. They currently have the 8th best lottery odds. If that's where they pick, the 120% rookie scale value would be $7.4M. Let's add a single vet min at $2.5M and assume they run with 14 roster spots. The new total is $227M which would be $25.3M over the $201.7M tax limit.

The 25-26 tax brackets are in increments of $5.685M. The projected cap increase would set the 26-27 brackets in increments of $6.1M. The tax rates I'm using for each bracket are as follows (non-repeater/repeater).

1/3
1.25/3.25
3.5/5.5
4.75/6.75
5.25/7.25
and so on in .5 increments

$25.3M over the tax would result in a bill of $119.5M when paying the repeater rates. This would only be $68.8M if they were paying the non-repeater rates. Below is a graph I created before PJ's extension that shows roughly what each increase in salary would do to the tax payment and overall bill. If the Mavs were to win the lottery they go off the chart.



There are certainly things that can be done to mitigate this. I'm being a little more charitable already by limiting it to 14 roster spots. I don't actually expect them to go off the chart or anywhere close to that, but I do think the situation is a bit more dire than you're suggesting if they do nothing.

(01-10-2026, 07:38 PM)F Gump Wrote: Thank you for taking the time to outline all of that. In general, I don't have any quibble with the payroll numbers (227M) or the roster assumption (filling 14 slots). I think those are the likely landing spots on the present trajectory.

I did not tell Google to use repeater rates, and that is the difference between your number and theirs.

But I do have a small quibble. Your numbers aren't actually 150M. 119M is still a big number, but 150 is over 25% bigger. 

One other thing to mention. It doesn't take massive cuts to payroll to lower that tax number. If DAR can be persuaded to leave (or traded at the TDL for an expiring), the tax is down to about 98M. Find a way to move Hardy and it's down to about 71M. Still big numbers, but not disastrous.

(01-10-2026, 03:31 PM)F Gump Wrote: I'm not convinced the "tax" itself is an issue at all. They do need to generally lower payroll somewhat, but from what I can tell that's more of a need to stay under A2 (which has wider consequences) and gain some roster-building flexibility, and not so much about having to pay tax. Eventually they would be smart to work with a somewhat more efficient payroll, of course.

But imo the goal should be maintaining or increasing the talent they have and getting rid of the unproductive players on bad contracts (Hardy, Martin, DAR), not the good ones. Talent is hard to obtain. If you have it, don't let go of it for air (aka cap room) but instead swap it for other talent, if you need a change.

(01-10-2026, 10:16 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Zach Langley (@langleyatl)
Neither CJ McCollum nor Corey Kispert are listed on tomorrow night’s injury report.

Kristaps Porzingis is questionable.

Zaccharie Risacher remains OUT.

(01-10-2026, 10:44 PM)Mavsfan32 Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CTV_JFAFjw

Marc Stein talking about the AD situation

(01-10-2026, 11:09 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: DISCLAIMER, right up front: I WOULD NOT DO THIS - not a suggestion.

I'm curious, though, about the level of panic, anger or even just apathy people are feeling right about now. So, question: have we reached the point for any of you where you would INCLUDE a pick in order to make that ATL deal, rather than expect one? Genuinely curious, because the way some are talking, I have a feeling some people might be in favor.

(01-10-2026, 06:35 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: However, this latest one is a one in a million freak thing, not a sign that he's breaking down. It could've happened to anyone. This is why I think ATL might still be interested.