(01-08-2026, 06:45 AM)Winter Wrote: I think there are more than a few people that think the Pelicans pick is not really in play. It seems to me Atlanta has already told their fan base that it's off limits.

I do think they want to squeeze two picks out of it though.

(01-08-2026, 07:36 AM)F Gump Wrote: The Mavs don't NEED to do a deal. But ATL does. Otherwise, they stay mired in nowhere land, because they suck at defense. AD can fix that.

The Mavs need to be getting the NO pick, if ATL is getting AD. That's the hinge point, deal or no deal. Risacher is not a prize - he's mainly just a salary for the trade match. (If he's a deal-killer in your mind, take him out and put different salary in, just so long as the number of players is basically equal going both directions. You'll end up putting R in the deal, as ATL has everyone else off-limits!) Without the NO pick coming back in return, I would not send AD to ATL, it's just that simple.

I think the Mavs know all that, and are bargaining accordingly.

(01-08-2026, 06:30 AM)meistermatze Wrote: You guys are absolutely delusional if you think we could get both Risacher and the Pelicans pick for AD. 

(01-08-2026, 05:15 AM)F Gump Wrote: 1 " D'Lo/Hardy for Kispert" -- Doesn't match unless you add Exum (3 for 1) and you then need AD to be swapped for 3 (KP, R, and a small salary). However, Wallace or Gueye may be too small outgoing to keep them below tax line, in fact - I originally worked from your "8.3Mish" number, and on closer examination I think it's only about 6.64M of space. 

I hope your number is right, but if not, it really limits the possibilities, because of the roster limits and the looming addition of Nemby. 
 

(01-08-2026, 08:34 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I've been having to work between the Fanspo Trade Checker and the Spotrac Trade Checker to get a full picture of what works/doesn't work.  Unfortunately, they disagree about Atlanta's payroll.  Both sites have already moved players to their new teams.  Fanspo still has the number at $8.3mm under the tax.  Spotrac has it at $6.78mm.  Most of the difference appears to be some second rounder from 2024 named Nikola Djurisic.  He makes $1.272mm this year and Fanspo doesn't show him on Atlanta's roster at all.  

Atlanta does have four guys at the end of their roster who are either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.  But, it doesn't appear they did anything by yesterday to move off of any of them.  

I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.

(01-08-2026, 08:34 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.

(01-08-2026, 07:36 AM)F Gump Wrote: The Mavs don't NEED to do a deal. But ATL does. Otherwise, they stay mired in nowhere land, because they suck at defense. AD can fix that.

(01-08-2026, 08:45 AM)Smitty Wrote: I know some of us have been working with the assumption that the Hawks will not go into the LT this season, but if they’re making a trade for Davis in-season it means that they are “going for it”. If you think you’re a contender in the East, you may be willing to pay the tax for a year.

(01-08-2026, 08:54 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: That is absolutely possible, but it isn't their nature.  They have paid it once in the last 15 years and in 11/12 their payment was $670,000.  It isn't so much the tax as it is missing out on the tax distribution (estimated to be $14mm this year).

I think it could also present a bargaining obstacle for Dallas getting what they want (he who defines the debate wins).  Dallas, if you want us to do ________ which puts us into the tax, then we have to take __________ off the table.

(01-08-2026, 08:46 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: If we end up with Kispert today, the two possibilities I see are KP/ZR/Kispert for either AD/Powell/Hardy or AD/Powell/D'Lo (assuming Risacher is in the deal).  Either keeps Atlanta under the tax using your/Spotrac's smaller number and is a 3 for 3 that preserves the ability to waive Exum in order to sign Nembhard.  

If you do this later and want to use Kennard instead of Kispert, then it is AD, Powell and Exum or Williams that keeps Atlanta under the tax (assuming Risacher is also in the deal).

(01-08-2026, 08:50 AM)omahen Wrote: As Meister said, AD is a very high risk asset - this is valid for Atlanta and Dallas both. You act as if he is a certainty while the reality is that he is injured half of the time. He has also not really brought much to Dallas in terms of result success (neither has he in last 5 or so seasons with Lakers) which could be used as an argument what a superstar, surefire result changing, immediate contender level great player he is. 

From Mavs perspective, if AD plays well, Mavs results will also be better decreasing the chance for a top pick. Is this really best case Mavs scenario moving forward? If he doesn't play well or if he gets injured, his value in the summer will not be any higher. Dan pointed this out several times already. 

I think Atlanta will include Risacher as this makes salaries work with KP and Kennard (add minor salary players for everything to work regarding roster slots). There are reports that Dallas does value him. But I don't think Atlanta will give up the NO pick.

(01-08-2026, 09:11 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: Brandon Williams makes the minimum right?  Does including him change anything?  He has been playing well but sort of weird about his increased minutes the last few weeks.   Maybe they really like him but it just sounds a little strange.

(01-08-2026, 09:00 AM)omahen Wrote:  
I don't think Kispert will be included. Seems like Atlanta likes him and I guess Mavs would in any case not be too enthusiastic about getting his long term salary. The salary part of the deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax is:
KP, Risacher and Kennard for AD, Powell and Exum 

If Mavs want to creat a roster spot for Nembhard, they can buy out either KP or Kennard or potentially get it through trade of their other vets (Klay, Gafford,...). These trades are likely to follow if Mavs decide to trade AD.

(01-08-2026, 09:15 AM)omahen Wrote: I think Atlanta would very much prefer him to (for example) Powel, but he also doesn't move the needle regarding the NO pick, imho. He can be considered as a decent back-up on vet min. He will likely require a raise in the summer.

(01-08-2026, 08:34 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I've been having to work between the Fanspo Trade Checker and the Spotrac Trade Checker to get a full picture of what works/doesn't work.  Unfortunately, they disagree about Atlanta's payroll.  Both sites have already moved players to their new teams.  Fanspo still has the number at $8.3mm under the tax.  Spotrac has it at $6.78mm.  Most of the difference appears to be some second rounder from 2024 named Nikola Djurisic.  He makes $1.272mm this year and Fanspo doesn't show him on Atlanta's roster at all.  

Atlanta does have four guys at the end of their roster who are either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.  But, it doesn't appear they did anything by yesterday to move off of any of them.  

I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.