(07-12-2024, 07:55 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Dameris has a new piece on the team in D Magazine. https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2024/07/nico-harrison-nba-mavericks-offseason/ 

He's basically going through various statements Nico has made and showing how his vision has played out.  Here is a line I thought was interesting:

“We’re built now with our core for the next three playoffs” – June 14, 2024

Notice the date (pre the offseason acquisitions).  I'm not sure that was true when he said it or now for that matter.  There is some business to be done.  But, there is a strong young core supplemented by two aging stars who should be here for the next three playoff runs.  Here is what we have locked down beyond our three FA guards next summer in Grimes, Hardy and Exum: 

Luka      Luka     P/O
Kyrie      P/O
Klay       Klay      Klay
PJW       PJW
Lively     Lively    Lively

Naji       Naji       Naji
OMax    OMax     OMax
Maxi      Maxi
Gafford  Gafford

Luka foregoing his 26/27 PO and extending is a no brainer.

Kyrie is more interesting.  I presume he will also forego his PO for 25/26 and replace it with something with additional years.  Kyrie's willingness to take about $7mm less than his max last summer was a critical element to the flexibility required to accomplish other roster building priorities last season and this season.  It also established what is turning into a trend for 30+ second stars.   Look at Harden 2/$70 or DeRozan.  The Kings basically put $10mm of additional money in the third year of DeRozan's deal so that he's either 3/$76 or 2/$60.  

I thought what Sacramento did was clever.  I could see Kyrie doing something similar.  Add years, but do it at a discount to his $40mm number.  Teams can't just give this class of player the same money as Luka/SGA/Tatum any more and finding creative ways to make it work is critical.  We talked for months about the benefits of Kyrie taking less than his full Max and then Nico actually pulled it off.  The trick with Kyrie's extension will be getting this right again.

The next thing I notice is that PJ and Gafford will be UFA's after two more seasons.  They can be extended starting next summer and running through 6/30/26.  PJ's current contract slots in well with what we are seeing lots of 'good starter' types getting.  I think extending him in that range is the smart play.  Gafford might be more challenging.  He's paid really well for a back-up and Lively's big money will kick in the next summer after Gafford's UFA summer.  I could see him trying for starter money somewhere else.  I could also see us trying to save a few dollars at the backup center spot (or at the very least delaying the extension decision). 

Finally, we don't have a backup guard past next season.  We have three that will be free in Exum (UFA w/EB rights) and Grimes/Hardy (both RFA).  We also have rumors we are sniffing around players who could be our third PG.  That makes sense to me.  If your bench is Gafford, Maxi, Naji and Grimes, the thing you are missing is ball-handling.  If you look at backup guards playing with Kyrie and Klay, Grimes makes good sense.  Hardy doesn't really.  He's a self creator and threw a few nice lobs and hit his 3's in the playoffs.  But, Dallas gets crushed when he is in the game.  He's one of the few players whose numbers declined after the TDL.  The D is a negative, but the surprising thing is how bad the O is when he's playing.  It is fair to point out that he doesn't get much time with Luka, but I'm not sure where his minutes will come from when we are at full strength.  The thing is, I'm not in love with the FA point guards (Smith, Jones and Fultz).  Is any of them better than Exum?  So, I'm not in a hurry to do something just to do something.  This hole could also be filled in the 2025 draft.  

Looking forward, if you want to add someone making more than about $4mm (now) or $5mm (next summer), it probably means sending out Maxi.  They need to avoid doing things that will hard-cap them at the first apron next summer as retaining players will likely take them over the first apron.  I don't know how much longer Maxi will hold off OMax, but I'm probably not willing to trade Maxi and count on OMax in a deep playoff run quite yet.  Can Naji back up the 3 and the 4 in the playoffs?   But next summer, between expiring Maxi, the 2025 pick and S&T Hardy, you have some things to work with (even if it is just filling the backup guard role).  Yes, you could do something related to 2025, Maxi and Hardy now or at the TDL.  But the first apron ties your hands.  There is greater flexibility next summer if you can avoid hard cap issues like incoming S&T's or taking back more money than you send out.

(07-12-2024, 08:24 AM)michaeltex Wrote: Showing my ignorance here...

Does DAL have bird rights for PJW and Gafford?

(07-12-2024, 10:44 AM)michaeltex Wrote: I think Gafford, as important as he was to the post-TDL turnaround, will be under some scrutiny this season to see just where his ceiling is. Consensus is that Lively has a bright future where you will see future articles listing him much higher in a "re-draft" fantasy. Gaff seemed to hit a wall on effectiveness sometimes. His game is strong, at the rim, but non-existent just one or two steps away, plus FTs are always an adventure. Defensively, he works well with the team, but an opposing 5 with more range will be a challenge. As will guarding down after switches.

Maybe he's invested enough to work on closing the gaps this summer and both he and DL will be bright spots next season. But the MBT will certainly be evaluating his long term fit and the associated compensation vs alternatives.

(07-12-2024, 12:21 PM)Winter Wrote: While I think all of this is true, I'm not sure we are appreciating what we have in these two centers. I just don't believe, based on what I've seen, that we can improve our center position much on the open market to any significant extent. 

It's entirely possible that Gafford's asking price may eventually be too much for us, but we are currently in possession of probably the best tandem of players for the Dallas Mavericks at any one position. It's truly a luxury considering where we were just over a year ago.

(07-12-2024, 12:21 PM)Winter Wrote: While I think all of this is true, I'm not sure we are appreciating what we have in these two centers. I just don't believe, based on what I've seen, that we can improve our center position much on the open market to any significant extent. 

It's entirely possible that Gafford's asking price may eventually be too much for us, but we are currently in possession of probably the best tandem of players for the Dallas Mavericks at any one position. It's truly a luxury considering where we were just over a year ago.

(07-12-2024, 01:23 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Nice thoughts.  We need to remember this was Gafford's first run in the playoffs (several other guys first runs too).  I would label his playoffs some really good, some ok and some not good.    We will see how he responds as he gets more playoff runs.

For the regular season though, our center combination was a home run.   Some thought Mavs going big was the wrong answer.   After seeing the run they had, I don't know how you can say they are not a great pairing.  We will see if that continues.   I think Gafford is a backup center.   If we can get him in the 15-18 million dollar range or so moving forward, I think that is a good number.  Still plenty of time to see where we are in two years though.  

I hope next year, we see a similar rotation pattern with Gafford and Lively.  I hope as the year goes on and later in the season, that Lively slowly takes more minutes and is close to a 30 minute a game player in the playoffs.

(07-12-2024, 01:34 PM)mvossman Wrote: If Lively is a starting center playing 30 minutes a game (which I think is how it will play out) then spending 15-18 mil on a backup center playing less than 20 minutes a game is a massive overpay.  You can find guys for a lot less money that can approximate Gafford when they only have to be on the court 15 minutes a game against second units.

(07-12-2024, 09:52 AM)mvossman Wrote: Good stuff.  I could see a significant restructuring of the big rotation next offseason.  Gafford, Maxi and Powell will all be expiring and together nearly 30 mil.  You could make an argument for sending all of them out replacing Maxi with Omax, Gafford with quality backup making 5-8 and Powell with a vet min.

(07-12-2024, 01:39 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: That is a good point and may be where we wind up in two years. I just think that position is a lot of wear and tear.  You are driving hard to the basket and jumping high.  A lot of potential injuries there.  I think having two guys to man that spot is smart.  Playoffs may be a different animal.  lively may be too good eventually to share minutes.  We have time to see how it plays out though.

(07-12-2024, 01:34 PM)mvossman Wrote: If Lively is a starting center playing 30 minutes a game (which I think is how it will play out) then spending 15-18 mil on a backup center playing less than 20 minutes a game is a massive overpay.  You can find guys for a lot less money that can approximate Gafford when they only have to be on the court 15 minutes a game against second units.

(07-12-2024, 02:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Yeah, I don't think people realize how close to tapped out the Mavs are. It's not just the first apron or current hard cap. There's not much room between the first and second apron, and that's where the real pain starts. It's cool that the new owners can afford a tax bill every once in a while, but the reality is that from this point forward, adding anything means subtracting something else. Even just adding an MLE-level guy next summer probably means Kleber or Gafford is gone, and that's before we think about a Kyrie extension or what's happening with Exum, Grimes, Hardy...Gafford or Kleber is probably gone just to keep 1-2 of those guys. 

I think there's a really good chance this is Gafford's last year in Dallas. If Lively is even half the player we believe, it's the sensible way to go.

(07-12-2024, 03:19 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: I think there is a legit chance Kyrie opts out and signs something like 100/3. 

1.) He´s unlikely to get more in FA. 
2.) He opts in, he´s probably looking at Klay/DeRozan type money in 2026, which then equals out to less than 100 over three years anyway.

Therefore I think the Mavs look at Kyrie as one salary cap massaging vehicle.

Quote:In a largely unprecedented financial concession to give roster flexibility to a contender, New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson has agreed on a four-year, $156.5 million extension, his agent Sam Rose of CAA tells ESPN --- $113M less guaranteed than he’s eligible to receive in one year.

(07-12-2024, 04:14 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: https://x.com/wojespn/status/1811867780884627697

(07-12-2024, 04:14 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: https://x.com/wojespn/status/1811867780884627697