MavsBoard

Last home preseason game.

My knee-jerk hot takes so far:

• Not sure what Delon Wright brings to the table just yet. Even though he is penciled in as an opening day starter it's not a lock that he stays there. Mavericks salaries are such that Rick can really put anyone he wants in the starting lineup without being beholden to a DAJ/Matthews situation where he *has* to start anyone.
  
• Mavs may eventually give up on trying to play defense and go back to what they usually do which is offensive efficiency and a killer bench. Run and gun, score a lot and get *enough* stops to win.
  
• Record-wise, ceiling to me is a low 40's win team. I think it's going to take a while for everyone to mesh but they could get it going eventually
  
• Brunson may force his way into the starting lineup. He fits too perfectly with Luka offensively. I do expect them to play a fair number of minutes together regardless. 
  
• Mavs have a logjam of like 7th man players. This equals really good bench and not a great starting lineup.
  
• This team is going to make a trade at some point this year
  
• JJB actually might return mostly to form this year. He didn't look that great last night but not terrible either. He was playing out of his mind the last couple of years before he got hurt. I actually think he will get consistent minutes in that 2nd unit.
  
• Justin Jackson is a very good player. His rebounding is what's going to hold him back. I think him and DFS are fighting for that starting spot
  
• THJ is going to be a good bench player and it's not impossible for him to force his way into the starting lineup at least some nights (or if there's injury). We buried him as worthless too early perhaps.
  
• KP is not shooting well from 3, I am a little surprised he isn't mixing it up more. That could be just the nature of pre-season basketball that they aren't running a lot of sets for him yet. I am not sure why he doesn't shoot more mid-range. Not worried though. If anyone knows how to utilize a Dirk-like player it's Rick.
  
• Opening day starting lineup (if Powell is healthy): Luka, Wright, DFS, Porzingis, Powell.
  
• Eventual (regular) starting lineup prediction: Brunson, Luka, DFS, Porzingis, Powell. 
  

With 3 preseason games under our belt, there are obviously more questions than answers.  The defense looks like a major problem heading into the season.  Offensively the Mavs have a lot of talent, but how well will they gel together?  Seems like we are jacking up a lot of long threes and the offensive flow just seems off.  Dwight Powell could help here.

I do think this season will be a work in progress with the goal of being competitive and fighting for the last playoff spot.  That said with Luka and KP you should not be looking at a long rebuild.  The goal should be to become legitimate contenders within 3 years.

Step 1 is evaluating the roster and finding out who is going to work next to Luka/KP long term.  To me this rules out a guy like JJB who should not be taking minutes away from someone like Brunson.

After 20 or so games we should have a better idea of what is working and what is not.

Step 2 will be determining what might be available in the trade market or next year's free agents.

The goal should be finding the best players 26 and under to add to this core.  Obviously the Mavs are not going to get Giannis, Jokic, Zion, KAT, etc.  More realistic targets maybe someone like Otto Porter or Buddy Hield (who wants an extension).

So who on the team do you think will become a core contributor for years to come and who do you think could be a realistic target?

I asked this question last year and a bunch of posters told me to get with the times, and that 3 & D is the new blueprint of the modern game.

That's fine, but I don't want Luka and KP jacking up a bunch of 3 pt shots every game. Luka's strength is breaking down defenses and his ball handling. KP is 7'3".  Sure you want to keep defenses honest and a long distance shot is necessary these days. However, that's different from making that the bread and butter of your offense. Every team is not GS.  Why not play to our strengths? 

Plus having the 2 cornerstones jack up a ton of long distance shots freezes all the other guys.  Again, just because it works for GS or some other teams, why do this?  I think the Mavs played a lazy and inefficient brand of offensive basketball last year, and hope it doesn't continue this year.

https://twitter.com/ESefko/status/1182791457792548866

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how...ric-works/

This is 538's new metric to replace CARMELO. I like it a lot better based on what I am reading and seeing. All of their predictions for the season (which predict the Mavs to be 46-36) are based on it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...edictions/

https://twitter.com/MavsCare/status/1182353989834289153

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/...3051301893

The Locked On Mavs Podcast today, while reviewing the game, had a great discussion about the Mav's center position. It's a must listen considering how much we've discussed this topic. 

https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/lockedo...9121096495

https://twitter.com/MavsHighlights/statu...2326481920

Watching Justin Jackson last night got me thinking.

I have felt from the moment it was announced that the Mavs won the trade with SAC, not just because of clearing the Barnes salary (and taking on a rookie contract), but also because of Justin's youth and untapped potential (whereas Barnes is a fully known, ceiling-ed-out commodity). So my question isn't about the Mavs winning the trade, I think that is a foregone and clear "YES."

My question is this: Is Justin Jackson (as a 24 year old entering his third year) actually a BETTER player than Harrison Barnes (a 27 year old entering his eighth year) right now? If you are a Finals contender trying to win THIS SEASON ONLY, do you take Barnes or Jackson on your team?